2020 Poll Hype Thread

[kireev]

My prediction based on the voting history:

MI: Biden +8
PA: Biden +7
WI: Biden +6
FL: Tied
NC: Biden +5
AZ: Trump +1

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm just pre-emptively strapping on my helmet just in case we get a surprise (like "Trump +5" in PA or something).

[swf541]

The 2016 vote numbers look weird, esp in Florida+Arizona

[BudgieForce]

What the heck is going on in that Arizona sample?

[Bidenworth2020]

That Arizona sample is laughable. If Biden is within 5 points he should be happy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1275502023258103810

[TC 25]

National: Biden +7

MI: Biden +6
PA: Biden +4
WI: Biden +3
FL: Tied
AZ: Trump +1
NC: Trump +2

[Gass3268]

If Trump has less than a 5 point lead in Arizona it's a win for Biden with that sample, my Lord!

[Devout Centrist]

Predictions:

Biden +3 nationally
Biden +2 in Michigan
Biden +1 in Pennsylvania
Trump +1 in Florida
Trump +2 in Wisconsin
Trump +3 in North Carolina
Trump +4 in Arizona

"Democrats Panic as Top Poll Finds Close Race"

[wbrocks67]

Nate Cohn was trying to explain why the Trump sample is so high in AZ and why it won't really matter in the end on Twitter, but I wasn't really following what he was saying

[Ronnie]

My guess:

National: Biden +6
MI: Biden +6
PA: Biden +5
WI: Biden +3
FL: Biden +1
NC: Trump +1
AZ: Trump +2

[Alben Barkley]

My guess is that these will be pretty good for Biden, as most polling has been. Otherwise I don't know why they need to preemptively address the un-skewers. lol

Predictions:
- National: Biden +8
- Michigan: Biden +7
- Pennsylvania: Biden +7
- Wisconsin: Biden +5
- Florida: Biden +3
- North Carolina: Trump +1
- Arizona: Biden +2

I think you're probably right since Trump threatened to sue CNN for an unfavorable poll LOL. This seems like an attempt to pre-empt that by explaining the poll methodology ahead of time and even showing how if anything it might be favorable to Trump.

It will be in vain, of course. Trump will still call it fake and whine about the failing New York Times.

[ej2mm15]

Gonna guess

National: Biden + 10
AZ: Trump + 3
FL: Biden + 7
MI: Biden + 11
NC: Biden + 5
PA: Biden + 4
WI: Biden + 9

[YE]

We have a new poll hype thread for this. Moving.

[Sir Mohamed]

Last minute gut feeling predictions:

National: Biden +7
MI: Biden +6
PA: Biden +5
WI: Biden +3
FL: Biden +2
NC: Tie
AZ: Trump +1


Given the AZ sample, anything that has Biden not down more than 3-4% means he's actually ahead.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1275798046748676096

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/1275807140767203329?s=19

[LimoLiberal]

The Daily Kos poster was right.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1275498594519470080

My prediction:

National: Biden +7
Arizona: Biden +3
Florida: Trump +1
Michigan: Biden +5
Pennsylvania: Biden +4
Wisconsin: Biden +2
North Carolina: Trump +1

AZ-Sen: Kelly +7
NC-Sen: Cunningham +1

Revising this based on the poll today.

AZ: Biden +4
Florida: Biden +2
Michigan: Biden +7
Pennsylvania: Biden +9
Wisconsin: Biden +5
North Carolina: Biden +2

AZ-Sen: Kelly +8
NC-Sen: Cunningham +3
MI-Sen: Peters +8

[Tender Branson]

My guess:

WI-Marquette: Biden+7
OH-Quinnipiac: Biden+4

FL-Siena: Biden+7
NC-Siena: Biden+5
AZ-Siena: Biden+1
PA-Siena: Biden+13
MI-Siena: Biden+14
WI-Siena: Biden+9

[Buzz]

NYT poll tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath.  Based on the national poll, if trump is up or tied in any state I would take that as a win for him (in that state)

[Ferguson97]

NYT poll tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath.  Based on the national poll, if trump is up or tied in any state I would take that as a win for him (in that state)

What flavor is the Kool-Aid you're drinking?

[NOVA Green]

NYT poll tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath.  Based on the national poll, if trump is up or tied in any state I would take that as a win for him (in that state)

What flavor is the Kool-Aid you're drinking?

Maybe some Electric Kool-Aid?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Electric_Kool-Aid_Acid_Test

*** Grabs Coat, Hat, & Sunglasses to run out the door and then realizes that it is currently 85 Degrees outside ***

More seriously, definitely looking forward to a number of "swing state polls" from an extremely reputable polling outfit.

Mark Twain:  "Figures often beguile me," he wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics#:~:text=The%20phrase%20derives%20from%20the,British%20prime%20minister%20Benjamin%20Disraeli.

Still, I will take the opinions of experts a bit more vs those of hack political leaders, recognizing the political polling in the United States although much better than in '48 is still facing extreme difficulties with capturing the present realities, let alone forecasting the futurity of current "objective" statistics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NYT poll tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath.  Based on the national poll, if trump is up or tied in any state I would take that as a win for him (in that state)

Well, that turned out not to be anything to worry about.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News just completed a poll and released some results today, but no election matchups.  However, some results have been withheld for later release, so we'll probably get them within a day or two.  Results so far: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l0XruPxbVV8mBoT0mpmeLk4AmbnkIGeH/view

Among the results:

Generally speaking, do you feel things in America are going...

Very well 5%
Somewhat well 19%
Somewhat badly 36%
Very badly 40%

[Granite City]

CBS News just completed a poll and released some results today, but no election matchups.  However, some results have been withheld for later release, so we'll probably get them within a day or two.  Results so far: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l0XruPxbVV8mBoT0mpmeLk4AmbnkIGeH/view

Among the results:

Generally speaking, do you feel things in America are going...

Very well 5%
Somewhat well 19%
Somewhat badly 36%
Very badly 40%

It was Biden +4 at the start of June so expectations should probably be set low for Biden supporters.

There is a not-insignificant amount of movement on coronavirus;

Overall, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in its efforts to deal with the outbreak of coronavirus?

Very Well - 11% (-1)
Somewhat Well - 27% (-4)
Somewhat Badly - 28% (-4)
Very Badly - 34% (+9)

Might just be noise but I'm guessing Biden +6.

[wbrocks67]

CBS/YouGov did all that battleground tracker stuff during the primaries - odd that they've been silent on state polls this go around too.

So much less polling than 2016.