2020 Poll Hype Thread

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1175084018888581120

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's understandable that organizations with a limited amount of resources for polling would avoid doing so during the holidays (both Thanksgiving and Christmas/New Year's).  We should start to see new polls in the next couple of weeks.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson is releasing something tonight, but it won't be a qualifying poll (they're not on the list of approved pollsters).

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1214229424079544324

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very nice, wonder which state though?

New Mexico (see primary poll board for details).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Finally an Iowa poll

And from the best pollster for the state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Marist national poll is coming.

National?

Unless there's something else coming, it probably refers to the monthly NPR/Marist poll that came out today.  This doesn't include GE or primary matchups.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DMR's a great pollster and their final poll will possibly be right on within the margin of error. At least we'll have a good idea of the race to set expectations accordingly.

All together now: Polls. Do. Not. Predict. Exact. Outcomes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1220384099992588288

[GeorgiaModerate]

After looking through a recent YouGOV polling memo I have serious concerns about their methodology. They simply ask way, way, way too many questions to respondents. I have to wonder what their completion rate is and if it interferes with their toplines.

You might be surprised by how long the typical respondent will stay on the phone.

That suggests something about response bias in any telephone poll: People who don't feel a sense of obligation or desire to participate just refuse; those who do will answer eagerly and at length even on subjects in which they have neither interest nor considered opinions.

I wouldn't stay on the phone for thirty questions either, but my odds of voluntarily responding to a pollster at all are nil.

YouGov is online, though.  It's a lot easier, or at least more convenient, to answer a long survey using a browser than to stay on the phone a lont time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1221228677356310534
ABC National poll tonight at Midnight Eastern

(found thanks to OneJ)

They decide to release their results at midnight on a Saturday night?  What the heck?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any word on when the final DMR Iowa poll is coming out?

I think I've heard Feb. 1, but don't have a source for that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The poll has been cancelled due to fear of a problem in the methodology.

Unreal

How do you F this up

That's going to put a little tarnish on Selzer's gold-standard reputation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm waiting for someone to claim that the poll was canceled because it was hacked.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I guess this is one way in which live interview polls aren't superior.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I would understand late surge in a poll for Buttigieg, or even Biden like undecideds breaking for a safe choice, but Warren is the least likely to have moved up. She wasn't in Iowa, she doesn't have starpower surrogates and when she did return yesterday we haven't seen some huge surge in a turnout at her events. It's a bunch of malarkey

She did get the DMR endorsement, which has provided a boost in some past caucuses.  (Having said that, I don't believe any of these supposed leaks are true.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

Noone wants Biden to win. If he finishes in 5th or 6th place, it would be amazing for everyone. Most commentators expect him to finish in 4th place.

Wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Crossposting from AAD

So, I do want to make a dampening #analysis on the IA caucus - not that it hasn't been mentioned prior:

Looking at several polls to release over the past few days, it's still possible for Biden to win or come very close to winning - in the second round (if he wins somehow in the first round, it could be a bloodbath; keep reading).

If Klobuchar's momentum (closing in on statewide viability, but not quite there) is to be believed, then it can be expected that there will be many places where she isn't viable. The bulk will go to Biden in all likelihood. Buttigieg is at viability statewide (give or take), meaning there will also be some places where his thresholds are below viability; we'd expect the bulk of those votes to go to Biden as well. Combined, that's almost 30% of the vote: say one-third of these voters are in non-viable sites and half go to Biden - that gives him a 5-point bump statewide from these two candidates alone (and I feel like only one-third of these two candidates' voters being in non-viable areas is a conservative estimate).

Yes, Sanders may benefit from Yang (though I imagine the bulk of his supporters will simply abstain) and Gabbard (who?), but the only way to cancel this out is if Warren is non-viable in a lot of places as well (for now, she seems in about as good of a position as Buttigieg - though I imagine a smaller share of her voters will go to Sanders than Buttigieg's will go to Biden).

All in all, I think Sanders needs to win the IA caucus by at least 5 points in the first round to retain a second round victory. Even then and depending on the distribution of SDEs (which do not seem to be in Sanders's favor this time), Biden could still pull out a plurality of delegates.

Noone wants Biden to win. If he finishes in 5th or 6th place, it would be amazing for everyone. Most commentators expect him to finish in 4th place.

Wrong.

Not wrong, right. Only people 50 or 60 years old and older are somewhat excited about his candidacy. Only the vast majority of those only support him because he has previous government experience and is a moderator and thus in their personal opinion is more electable than the other candidates, which obviously and of course is 100% wrong. If their thinking was actually right, then Trump should have lost in a 20% or 30% landslide in 2016. What most voters these days crave is someone with absolutely no government experience and whose thoughts and mind is situated as far from Washington D.C. as humanly possible.

I like Biden.  He's been my first choice from the beginning.  Please stop trying to tell me what I should think.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I like Biden.  He's been my first choice from the beginning.  Please stop trying to tell me what I should think.

I thought I remembered you saying Klobuchar was your 1st choice?

It's possible I may have given that impression, but what I meant is subtly different.  I like both of them, but Klobuchar is the candidate who I think would make the best President.  In an ideal world, she would be the one I'd want to win the primary.  However, I think Biden has a slightly better chance of beating Trump, which is my overriding priority (and why I'll support whoever the nominee is).  So it's he who I'll actually vote for in the Georgia primary, even if Klobuchar is still in the race at that point.  My ideal ticket for November would be Biden-Klobuchar.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectionsCenter/status/1226941216526344195

[GeorgiaModerate]

New South Carolina Winthrop Poll coming out next week (either 17 or 18)
https://twitter.com/HuffmonPolitics/status/1228024042843770886

WHAT!?  How dare he put his students ahead of getting poll information out?

(Joking, in case that's not obvious.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

No Morning Consult. Maybe they decided we had enough polls released today already.

It's out today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A Missouri Democratic primary poll is being released tonight, not quite sure who is the sponsor, but KCTV5 (CBS) will be sharing the details at 10 CT.

Still not up yet...

It's not 10 CT yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I want state polls not national polls! We've seen how useless national polls are.

There have been a ton of recent state polls.  Look at the general election polling subforum.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa Poll!

Biden +1

Their last one was Trump+10, so that would be quite a jump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa Poll!

Biden +1

Their last one was Trump+10, so that would be quite a jump.

Where is the PDF for that poll? Can't find it.

Scroll to the bottom of https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/trump-approval-favorable-ratings-break-even-iowa-poll/5000775002/.  It was Trump 51, Biden 41.