2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Tender Branson]

Biden and Warren @ 24% each (+/- 2%).

Sanders @ 17%.

Buttigieg @ 10%.

Harris @ 7%.

Yang and Steyer @ 3%.

Tulsi @ 2% and another qualifying poll for her.

[Tender Branson]

New Iowa Suffolk poll taken entirely after the last debate will be out tomorrow morning. I believe it counts as a qualifying poll.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SusanPage/status/1186008654996217859

Expect a sick amount of undecideds (20-30%) ... => Suffolk.

[Tender Branson]

A new qualifying NH poll by the Univ. of NH should be out the next couple days.

It is always fielded in October and we are almost done with the month and last year it was released around this time.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/monmouthpoll/status/1186734689823969282

[Tender Branson]

Do we know of anything noteworthy coming out this week?

Maybe the UNH poll that I mentioned earlier ...

[Tender Branson]

Buttigiegs GE poll numbers in IA should be interesting ...

There have been no GE polls with him vs. Trump so far and he should be most known to voters in IA.

[Tender Branson]

Buttigiegs GE poll numbers in IA should be interesting ...

There have been no GE polls with him vs. Trump so far and he should be most known to voters in IA.

There have been several nationally, but probably not anyone from Iowa yet. Iowa Dems really seem to love him, so that should colour the results.

Only IA and NH polls for the GE are an important indicator for Pete right now, because in those 2 states he has about a 80% name recognition already.

National polls or such from PA etc. are not important because in those states only 1/3 of general election voters know who he is vs. 100% name recognition for Trump.

[Tender Branson]

IA (Quinnipiac):

23% Warren
22% Buttigieg
19% Biden
16% Sanders
  5% Klobuchar

[Tender Branson]

IA (Quinnipiac):

23% Warren
22% Buttigieg
19% Biden
16% Sanders
  5% Klobuchar

Klob makes the debate!!

According to my prediction, yes.

[Tender Branson]

Emerson College Polling has announced a new collaboration with 7NEWS/WHDH for a series of statewide polls in New Hampshire – including a 10-day tracking poll in February 2020 – providing viewers with the clearest possible picture of the presidential race in the first in the nation primary.

The first poll will be released tonight on 7NEWS at 9 p.m.

The highlight of the partnership – an exclusive New Hampshire tracking poll that runs through Election Night 2020 – will begin Feb. 2, 2020, the day before the Iowa Caucus, and continue through the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 11, 2020. The tracking poll will measure daily changes in the Democratic and Republican fields as the presidential candidates rise and fall in popularity with New Hampshire voters.

In a statement, WHDH/WLVI Vice President and General Manager Jimmy Rogers said, “This is an exciting time to announce our partnership with Emerson College Polling. 7NEWS has been involved in exclusive and nationally cited tracking polls in New Hampshire in each of the last five presidential elections, beginning in 2000. We are committed to providing our viewers with unbiased and insightful analysis of this historic election. Emerson College Polling’s outstanding record for accuracy will ensure our viewers receive the best data available.”

Emerson College Polling is a Charter Member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative and has received an A- rating for accuracy from Nate Silver’s 538, making it a top ten pollster in the country.

https://whdh.com/news/emerson-college-7news-partner-for-nh-presidential-polling-first-poll-to-be-released-tonight-on-7news-at-9-p-m

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/emersonpolling/status/1204228096544722944

Probably like their NH media poll one with undecideds in the General Election.

[Tender Branson]

A Bunch of CBS/YouGov  Super Tuesday polls coming Sunday.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1205615903133581313

It’s probably just 1 poll.

All Super Tuesday states combined, as they usually do.

Maybe they have a CA & TX poll, but I’m pretty sure they are not releasing results for VT or UT ...

[Tender Branson]

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll probably tomorrow:

Link

[Tender Branson]

I am guessing there would be a polling drought until after New Year.  Assume 2 days of analyzing/publishing.  So that would mean about 7 days (Jan 02-Jan 08) to poll before the deadline (Jan 10) for the January Debate.

The only candidate on the bubble is Yang.  And with the new bar raises, his chance doesn't seem good.  Some of the Yang Gang is accusing the DNC about purposefully making this arbitrary period of time in which go far enough back to include 2 qualifying polls for Klobuchar (making it her already qualified for the debate) but one day short to include Yang's second qualifying poll. 

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

But as you said none of the 2 will make the January debate because there is no polling.

[Tender Branson]

I am guessing there would be a polling drought until after New Year.  Assume 2 days of analyzing/publishing.  So that would mean about 7 days (Jan 02-Jan 08) to poll before the deadline (Jan 10) for the January Debate.

The only candidate on the bubble is Yang.  And with the new bar raises, his chance doesn't seem good.  Some of the Yang Gang is accusing the DNC about purposefully making this arbitrary period of time in which go far enough back to include 2 qualifying polls for Klobuchar (making it her already qualified for the debate) but one day short to include Yang's second qualifying poll.  

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

But as you said none of the 2 will make the January debate because there is no polling.

In the 2016 cycle, there were 7-8 polls released nationally and in the 4 early states between January 1st and 10th, however I don't believe all of them would be qualifying this time around since DNC's rules are so super strict when it comes to which polls they accept. We're probably talking somewhere in the 4 to 7 qualifying polls range before the deadline. Possibly more if CNN, the next debate moderator, decides to do a state poll in each of the 4 early states (not out of the realms of possibilities in my opinion, as most political journalists and commentators on CNN are starting to lean hardcore YangGang in the last few weeks, especially since the last CNN debate). And also because they want to stick it to MSNBC that they are fair and impartial, unlike them, NBC and Comcast. ABC could do a couple of extra polls too, due in parts to pressure from The View panel, where at least 2 out of 6 (Whoopi and McCain, possibly Abby Huntsman as well) are really hardcore YangGang as well.

I assume that virtually no qualifying polls will be released until Jan. 10th this time ...

Maybe YouGov, Morning Consult and Ipsos.

[Tender Branson]

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

I think you could make the case that Yang has a slightly better chance than Steyer, despite being one poll behind currently.  Steyer is heavily dependent on Nevada and South Carolina polls, and those states just don't have very many polls.  Yang has much more of a chance with national polls, and we could conceivably get a flurry of national polls after the new year, and so if Yang is lucky enough to hit the qualifying number in enough of them, he has a chance.  Yang has also been reasonably strong in NH polls, even if most of the recent ones haven't been qualifying polls.  So maybe he gets lucky with a NH poll as well.

True, but there likely won’t be a „flurry of polls“ until Jan. 10th.

Maybe a Quinnipiac or Monmouth poll, but that’s it.

CNN and all others polled shortly before Christmas and usually only do once a month, which would be after the deadline.

And CNN etc. have never really cared about debate deadlines for polls in the past, somwhy would they now ? I assume most qualifying polls will be released after Jan. 10th.

[Tender Branson]

I hope something gets released next week, even though I’m not all too optimistic.

I think Yang, Steyer & Co. will definitely not be in the January debate.

[Tender Branson]

LOL:

D.N.C. Tells Pollsters To Do More Polls.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/us/politics/dnc-debate-polls.html

[Tender Branson]

hmm, so we got until Friday for the rest of the qualifying polls. 

Do you guys know which pollster are planning to release polls for the next few days?

Nothing is planned.

[Tender Branson]

Monmouth will have a NH poll tomorrow. Their last NH poll was back in September when they had Warren 27 Biden 25 Sanders 12 and Buttigieg 10

Sanders 24, Biden/Pete 20, Warren 17, Klobuchar 5, all others no more than 2%.

[Tender Branson]

The poll, which will be published at DesMoinesRegister.com, asks likely Democratic caucusgoers their top choice for president among 14 candidates for their party’s nomination.

14 ?

Did they ask Bloomberg as well, even though he’s skipping the state ?

(On the other hand, this is a caucus where everyone can write in Bloomberg’s name.)

[Tender Branson]

Tender‘s educated guess for the Des Moines Register / CNN / Selzer poll:

26% ButtiPete
19% Biden
18% Sanders
14% Warren
  8% Klobuchar
  2% Bloomberg
  2% Yang
  2% Gabbard
  3% Others
  6% Undecided

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/quinnipiacpoll/status/1216768117449228289

[Tender Branson]

New Marist national poll is coming.

[Tender Branson]

I guess this will be a February debate qualifying poll, because it’s NYT and their previous IA poll counted as well.