2020 Poll Hype Thread

[swf541]

The 2016 vote numbers look weird, esp in Florida+Arizona

[swf541]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

[swf541]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

Any incumbent Republican not named Martha McSally, Susan Collins, or Cory Gardener just saw their chances of re-election skyrocket.

That doesn't change the presidential race which is what this part of the forum is for

I also fail to see how this helps the GOP incumbents in GA or NC

[swf541]

All these polls are basically void now because the SC Nomination is going to be a seismic shift in the race.

Is it really?

I dont see how it changes any of the fundamentals

Any incumbent Republican not named Martha McSally, Susan Collins, or Cory Gardener just saw their chances of re-election skyrocket.

That doesn't change the presidential race which is what this part of the forum is for

I also fail to see how this helps the GOP incumbents in GA or NC

Republican voters who might have voted for Ossoff or Cunningham will now go for Perdue/Tillis because of the supreme court.

This makes little sense, the supreme court was already an issue, if the confirmation happens prior to the election it actually becomes even less of an issue.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1307502491001593857

That's what, 0.5% of the vote? Doubt it'll make a difference.

4% lol

Yea lol, surprisingly important when the margin is 1%......

[swf541]

Watch this poll look relatively good for Trump and the usual suspects who try to ignore/debunk it to make themselves feel better.
(If this post ages horribly I will be very happy)

I'm really confused what this part is supposed to mean

They be projecting about themselves pretty obviously

[swf541]

There are some recently polling showing Trump either take the lead or closing the gap a bit in swing states. Some better head-to head polling, too. I caution those already celebrating a Biden win.

A blue wave is happening, Cassidy in LA is under 50 LA can go to a runoff

and if it goes to a run off he wins anyways with lower turnout

With the ongoing political realignment this may not be true in the long run....

[swf541]

Given how it's worded would imply its a state with a senate race... So, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and Alaska would seem likely possible ones.

Aren't we supposed to get some Alaska polling soon from someone?

[swf541]

Given how it's worded would imply its a state with a senate race... So, Kansas, Texas, South Carolina and Alaska would seem likely possible ones.

Aren't we supposed to get some Alaska polling soon from someone?

The more I think about it, Montana is a very real possibility. It's an important Senate race that has gotten surprisingly little polling.

Montana slipped my mind completely, would make sense

For a ragnarok tier reaction tho (I dont see this happening) but Alabama closish with Jones leading would be absolutely hilarious)

[swf541]

NYT Predictions:
PA: Biden +7
FL: Biden +3
WI: Biden +8
AZ: Biden +5

Monmouth:
PA: Biden +9

Oh thank god. I’m not a doomer but I still feel like things are shifting in Trump’s favor here at the end. I also don’t think he has enough time to come back, like he did 4 years ago when Hillary’s numbers started to crater four weeks out instead of four days out.

We just hit 100K cases a day with the virus and Trump is even more of a trainwreck than usual. How are things going towards his favor here at the end?

Low minority turnout numbers, Republicans coming home, Cubans in Florida.

1. There hasn’t been any stark drop off in minority turnout based on the early voting numbers. Minorities always tend to turn out at lower rates than whites, and there is evidence to suggests that gap is narrowing.

2. The majority of the electorate is Democrats and Independents.

3. That is true, but that’s something gijg isolated to a very specific state.

On Florida it also ignores the other major story there being the shift of seniors away from Trump (Which is a much larger demographic then Cubans)

[swf541]

That Selzer result was soul crushing

um, why lol

[swf541]

My god... sounds like the Siena polls are going to be ugly too.
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1322690255040978944?s=21

I read it exactly the opposite -- Cohn is saying Biden is doing well in the upper Midwest.

That's exactly what he is saying

[swf541]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

Literally who?

[swf541]

Frequent Democratic poster on DailyKos (not a troll that joined this week) is claiming there are at least three unreleased and/or internal live-caller polls that show Trump gaining or leading in the Upper Midwest late this week.

Well my uncle works for Trafalagar and he says Biden is leading Texas by 5

Lol they have a furry icon. Also DailyKos: lol

Pretty much sums it up

Just yeesh at this forum.  Pretty clear that there is some fundamental issues with the Selzer poll, put it in the average and carry on

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1322545158467047424

This, right here, is the reason I think Trump is going to lose worse than the 413 map.


Calling it right now. Dems take at least 54 seats in the Senate, and unless there are major court cases (Harris County, PA VBM, etc), Biden will win states that we didn't even think were competitive like MO, MT, AK, SC, IN.

Everything starts to make sense, like why Pence was campaigning in Indiana, why the Trump campaign is bombarding KCMO and KCK with ads, why Trump telegraphed that he might be down in SC on Twitter.

I think what we will see on Election Night is that Trump's base was completely maxed out in 2016, and he will get around the same amount of votes while Biden gets like 20 million more.


This is the opposite of Dooming, but I am super super optimistic about this election for the first time this entire cycle.

LFG!!!!

Im not this optimistic, but you def bring up some points that I agree with and I share the overall feelings on the outcome.

Stuff like this + the district polls really do not point to a remotely close race.

Combine that with the turnout going through the roof by the looks of it and many many non voters from 16 voting in 2020 and I think the ingredients are all there for a systemic polling error in Biden's favor.

[swf541]

I honestly believe all the major pollsters have adjusted weighting for non-college educated folks to fix 2016 and the learning for 2020 will be that they overshot it bc that cohort is declining...... and thus undercutting Biden's margins.

Yea I've been thinking about this a lot tbh

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/charliespiering/status/1323371135870840839?s=21

uhh what?

Pretty normal Biden campaign language. It might be closer than what public polling is telling us, but I think it has more to do with voters getting complicit and not voting.

Pretty normal for a campaign, your not going to boast your dominating a day before the election, you want to project some confidence and some urgency in your voting base to make sure they vote.

[swf541]

Trump is now in command IMO. I told you that as Election Day approaches, the polls would shift towards Trump. I’d be very concerned if I were a Biden supporter.

I hate that you are right.

LOL

You won’t be laughing in about 27 hours.

If Biden wins tomorrow, no one should let you off the hook for been wrong. I won't even give R's a hard time, they are supposed to be confident. But "dems" on here acting like complete chicken****s I have zero respect for.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323365524496109568

Interesting....

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1323365524496109568

Interesting....

As I've been saying, people have been paying way too much attention to Miami-Dade and not enough to the rest of the state. Biden can probably net 60K votes just by narrowing the margins in Polk, Manatee, and Sarasota counties, and that doesn't even begin to get into Jacksonville, St. Petersburg, or the huge retirement communities in Lake, Marion, and Sumter counties.

100% this

[swf541]

Looks like those are the last Data for Progress polls? No Maine or Montana are ominous signs (though they did release bad KS and SC polls so who knows).

Spoke too soon. Trump by 5.

Wasn't data for progress tho