2020 Poll Hype Thread

[NOVA Green]

This is ridiculous....

Mayor Pete claims the polls are biased against him because of possibly one survey question and now it is cancelled....

Wow!!!--- I'm worried that my campaign might under-perform on the poll so now I'll complain to CNN and coverage of the poll is cancelled?

[NOVA Green]

Canceling a poll because one respondent didn't hear a candidate's name is ridiculous. Maybe the interviewer was tired and accidentally skipped over it, maybe they just mispronounced it, maybe the "grassroots supporter" misremembered all of it, who knows.

One (unverifiable!) error in one interview is not going to jeopardize the validity of the poll. This is the Register and CNN backing down over a non-issue because they're afraid of jeopardizing their relationship with the Buttigieg campaign — sets a dangerous precedent for future campaigns getting unfavorable polls canceled.

If it is true that *IF* this was one individual who claimed this was the case, which is likely verifiable bcs I would imagine all polling calls are monitored, rather than multiple individuals, this is complete and utter BS.

Let's say I get a call from a polling organization in a critical state primary and sense my candidate is going down, I simply complain at the last minute and they cancel the release???



*** FREE the POLL ***

[NOVA Green]

This really highlights a glaring weakness for Buttigieg I haven't see anyone mention yet all cycle. His name is hard to pronounce. Voters like a candidate with a smooth, silky name that just rolls off the tongue like Trump, Sanders, Biden or Warren. Buttigieg? No. Unfair, but true.

tbf Klobuchar might have similar issues as well....

It's really easy to "mispronounce candidate names", but let's face it---- it's not like any of these Democrats really have similar names....

I guess if you are older and hearing impaired you might have a hard time between Bernie and Biden for Christs sake.....

[NOVA Green]

We’ll always have Paris Emerson.

Casablanca similar rip-off....

"Of all the Iowa polls in all the world, he had to walk into mine"

[NOVA Green]

So any updates as to if they will eventually release a poll at all, or if basically we have a few low quality polls to tide us over until we get the Caucus "entrance polls" come Monday PM?

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile for entertainment value while we are waiting....

The 2020 Poll Hype Thread is a good title, and the IA poll release failed miserably (For as yet not totally understood reasons).

While we await future polls. here is a hip-song from the legendary Public Enemy: "Don't Believe the Hype"

[NOVA Green]

So is the IA DEM Caucus gig going to go back to the roots where neighbors talk to neighbors and debate and discuss the issues of the times and which candidates might best support those issues???

It's almost sad that the caucus scene has been reduced on the DEM side to a handful of states in favor of primaries....

Get the concept of primaries and increased turnout, but a certain point debate and discussion becomes nothing while meanwhile campaign with $$$ can bombard radio and TV stations as part of an air war, without ever setting grounds in our states....

Regardless of the results of the poll numbers, which we may or not ever see, unfortunately Mayor Pete will likely take the hit (Assuming this was a major dropping of the ball from the polling outfit, which appears to be the case).

If, as it appears to be the case, this problem way have well impacted other Candidates, it certainly appears appropriate to "pull the poll"...

Be it as it may be.... Iowa appears to be a Bernie vs Biden contest despite all of this drama from an A+ polling outfit that appears to have done one of the most epic recent "eff-ups" in Modern American Polling history.....

[NOVA Green]

Are we going to get any actual good polls of New Hampshire?

Apparently the only good poll out these days is the final poll.... the actual results from real individual voters and not the BS drivel and modeling that we are fed these days with a Nation of Sheep entranced by their smartphones, afraid to answer any unknown numbers because of scams, not open emails bcs of mandatory cyber-security annual drills...

Traditional polling is really going down the tubes, not for the fault of the pollsters, nor necessarily the modeling, but because of the increased difficulty in getting a representative sample size with so many folks that have "dropped out"....

[NOVA Green]

A Missouri Democratic primary poll is being released tonight, not quite sure who is the sponsor, but KCTV5 (CBS) will be sharing the details at 10 CT.

Still not up yet...

[NOVA Green]

A Missouri Democratic primary poll is being released tonight, not quite sure who is the sponsor, but KCTV5 (CBS) will be sharing the details at 10 CT.

Still not up yet...

It's not 10 CT yet.

Ooops.... got off work so watching the debate, while multi-tasking. Nothing to see here folks.   

[NOVA Green]

Probably they'll release the Michigan poll tomorrow night. I hope they poll Idaho and North Dakota too, just to give some idea what's happening there.

Lief... good to see around the blocks these days, been quite some time since I've seen your posts...

[NOVA Green]

NYT poll tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath.  Based on the national poll, if trump is up or tied in any state I would take that as a win for him (in that state)

What flavor is the Kool-Aid you're drinking?

Maybe some Electric Kool-Aid?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Electric_Kool-Aid_Acid_Test

*** Grabs Coat, Hat, & Sunglasses to run out the door and then realizes that it is currently 85 Degrees outside ***

More seriously, definitely looking forward to a number of "swing state polls" from an extremely reputable polling outfit.

Mark Twain:  "Figures often beguile me," he wrote, "particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: 'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics#:~:text=The%20phrase%20derives%20from%20the,British%20prime%20minister%20Benjamin%20Disraeli.

Still, I will take the opinions of experts a bit more vs those of hack political leaders, recognizing the political polling in the United States although much better than in '48 is still facing extreme difficulties with capturing the present realities, let alone forecasting the futurity of current "objective" statistics.

[NOVA Green]

Election Twitter is crowdfunding (yes, you read that right), a poll of AK-SEN, which will also include presidential numbers and Biden/Trump favorables.

https://twitter.com/theJackVaughan/status/1280341806329278464

Gaining money quick, so it seems likely that we will get the long-awaited Alaksa poll!

60% of the way there in 2 hours.

Turns out 80% of the donors are Atlas / Talk Election Members.   

Still pretty cool, but naturally wouldn't be smoking any of that Alaskan Northern Lights strain without some serious backup and verification of legit polling methods in *insert Atlas Cliche* "One of the most difficult states to poll"....

[NOVA Green]

Election Twitter is crowdfunding (yes, you read that right), a poll of AK-SEN, which will also include presidential numbers and Biden/Trump favorables.

https://twitter.com/theJackVaughan/status/1280341806329278464

Gaining money quick, so it seems likely that we will get the long-awaited Alaksa poll!

60% of the way there in 2 hours.

Turns out 80% of the donors are Atlas / Talk Election Members.   

Still pretty cool, but naturally wouldn't be smoking any of that Alaskan Northern Lights strain without some serious backup and verification of legit polling methods in *insert Atlas Cliche* "One of the most difficult states to poll"....

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/theJackVaughan/status/1281588996049702913

YES!!!!

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1307806038620504070

Also, DMR hasn't yet released the Presidential numbers from their IA poll. They probably do so late tonight or sometime tomorrow at the latest.

Been waiting for IA-PRES from DMR for too long...

Might well be that PRES top-lines have much fewer "Undecided / Others / Non-voting" than the US-SEN poll....

Tick tock.... Nothing wrong with Biden dropping $$$ in IA to hit Media Markets in NE-02, as well as Southern MN... even NW MO...

Stretch is the new name of the game.... even MT is looking decent enough for Biden to help support US-SEN Dems with some relatively cheap local Media markets...

We need DEM $$$ to start hitting US-SEN PUBs up for reelection to ensure they know if they vote to steal the Supreme Court, their entire political career is done and gone, and they can and will be consigned to the "Political Dustbins of History"....

[NOVA Green]

Apparently tomorrow there will be CBS/YouGov polls of PA and OH.

IMHO good choice of States at this point in the Election...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/jacobfhsmith/status/1315061288620429313

Ugh, one of the biggest issues with polling in 2016 was polling firms doing their finals polls weeks out from the election.

Don't worry I'm sure we will be getting plenty of decent quality polls from these states closer to E-Day to help fill in the gaps.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1314691934888353792

Although I didn't vote in the poll, quite frankly would have been happy with either.

Had I been pressed, likely would have narrowly picked AK > KS for selfish reasons (Alaska Pacific Northwest / West Coast realignment theory).

Sure we got Senate seats as potential upsets in both, plus the chance of snaking the AK-ALL seat from Don Young.

KS on the other hand, might add further data points about what is going on the plain state belt plus places like MO, IA and Western MN.

Hopefully we get another poll from KS soon as well.

[NOVA Green]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

https://twitter.com/AndrewPEllison/status/1314321087455465476

Excited about this one as well.

IN is rarely polled (Don't they have some law that makes it much more difficult for polling companies to do business in the state?).

Naturally it will provide further data points about Upper-Midwest places neighboring the State, from OH to the East, SW-MI, Midwest Factory Towns, Midwest Upper Middle-Class 'burbs, Midwest Appalachian belt, White Catholic European Ethnic Voters, etc...

[NOVA Green]

it’s happening
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1315133629337686017?s=21

Uhh... It would have to be a traditionally conceived red state showing a comfortable Biden lead.

AK? MT? SC? TX?

Additionally the language used: "Buckle Up. There's going to be some absolutely devastating poll results released in the next 24-48 hrs that are going to cause a meltdown in Whitehouse & GOP Circles".

So we are 24 Hrs since the initial Tweet which was retweeted, and all we got is the ABC / WaPo Ntl poll (Which likely caused some massive heartburn in Whitehouse & GOP Circles).

Meltdown implies something even more dramatic, or possibly even multiple sources about to dump data simultaneously.

The verbiage: "meltdown in Whitehouse & GOP" appears to imply that it's not just the PRES race, but will also hit down-ballot PUBs hard (Senate Races, US House Races, etc..)

So the language employed would appear to suggest that it is results that are shocking at both a PRES level, plus down-ballot.

Yes--- you got some good guesses going on up there, although maybe KS or MO might be potential wild card contenders...

[NOVA Green]

it’s happening
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1315133629337686017?s=21

Uhh... It would have to be a traditionally conceived red state showing a comfortable Biden lead.

AK? MT? SC? TX?

So we are 24 Hrs since the initial Tweet which was retweeted, and all we got is the ABC / WaPo Ntl poll (Which likely caused some massive heartburn in Whitehouse & GOP Circles).

What was the initial tweet? I just see the one from Mr Amandi that was tweeted out 5 hours ago

Apologies... Timestamp on the Tweet from Mr Amandi was 5 hrs ago (Got my wires crossed out West with the Day shift).

Still believe the Armandi tweet was prior to the ABC /WaPo poll.

Honestly hoping that it is a devastating State Poll for both Trump % Pub Incumbent Senators / House members in what they consider to be a "Safe State" or a "Hold State".

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1315454974843932672

Prepare yourselves

Inject in my veins.  Anyways, I think it will have Biden up 49-47.

Personally, although I am against drugs generally, I do not believe that folks who smoke a bowl, light a "J", or consume medicinal MJ  should be criminalized and sent to prison.

The sound of National Guard Helicopters patrolling the Cities and Rural areas of Oregon as party of "Operation Ghost-dancer" back in the late '80s / early '90s, the raid of "Head Shops", which targeted businesses who sold glass pipes, the raids on media companies who used their Freedom of Speech to have publications such as Sinsemilla Tips, having their front doors kicked in by the Bush Senior "Jackbooted Stormtrooper" crew, made many of us in the late '80s feel like we were living in a state under Martial Law (Especially with all the Mill jobs getting shut down at the height of the Reagan / Bush Recessions).

Wanna inject something in your veins, def gotta be Heroin or Crys...

Don't believe in "Jacking Up".... never done it myself and never will. Pretty clear that anybody out here on Atlas / TE who doesn't live in reality, is likely residing somewhere in the Country of Egypt along one the world's largest rivers...  "Da Nial" River....

Folks that still live in the State of Denial, might require some of the harder stuff, in order to ease the pain of what is an inevitable complete destruction of the PUB Party in NOV 2020 (Hell Ted Cruz even brought that up a few days back).

Here is a song to ease your pain Buzz.   

[NOVA Green]

I’m gonna miss the hype =(


Anyways predictions:

AJC: TIED (48-48)
NYT Texas: TIED (46-46)


Marquette WI: Biden +8 (50-42)

Don’t worry Buzz, Atlas obsesses over every race, you can expect poll hyping long after this.

If Trump loses Florida I’ll be gone =(

It's okay... just like Vietnam, we will all go down together...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322919245597020160

If you compare Trump's 2020 numbers with his 2016 numbers (caveat: "polling isn't predictive", "the only poll that matters is Election Day", blah blah blah), it reinforces the notion that Trump has been generally unable to expand his base across the past four years.  

Also notable here is that the biggest swings appear to be among Whites without College Degrees.

As I noted multiple times on 2016 related threads, despite the stereotype about some guy in his mid '40s with a neckbeard working in manufacturing, the reality is that Whites without College degrees are strongly correlated with age level, and the swing among Seniors is closely connected with whites w/o college degrees.

Also tons of WWC women working in retail, food service sector, medical services, etc are also frequently neglected within the stereotype of WWC White Voters...