2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 186693 times)
Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #775 on: July 09, 2020, 02:33:46 PM »
I'm honestly shocked it took this long for crowdfunded election polls to become a thing.

I'd love for some polls of Maricopa County & select Texas CD polls about now
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soundchaser
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« Reply #776 on: July 09, 2020, 04:57:59 PM »
Quote from: Monstro on July 09, 2020, 02:33:46 PM
I'm honestly shocked it took this long for crowdfunded election polls to become a thing.

I'd love for some polls of Maricopa County & select Texas CD polls about now

I definitely remember somebody doing it (trying it?) with Mississippi back in 2016. Pretty sure I even donated!
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #777 on: July 09, 2020, 05:53:23 PM »
Rasmussen tried to crowd fund a bunch of states polls in 2018 I think. I dont believe they were very successful though. Probably less to do with the concept of crowdfunding and more to do with Rasmussen's reputation, especially with poll watchers.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #778 on: July 09, 2020, 06:05:04 PM »
I wonder how much NYT/Siena paid for all the live house polls. I would definitely contribute to that. I would never contribute $2K for a Gravis poll. At that point, more worth it to just do another $5K PPP poll
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #779 on: July 09, 2020, 06:32:49 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 09, 2020, 06:05:04 PM
I wonder how much NYT/Siena paid for all the live house polls. I would definitely contribute to that. I would never contribute $2K for a Gravis poll. At that point, more worth it to just do another $5K PPP poll

That would be an interesting market experiment.  You could draw some conclusions about the quality of a pollster by seeing how much people were willing to pay them. Smiley
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #780 on: July 09, 2020, 09:59:03 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 09, 2020, 06:05:04 PM
I wonder how much NYT/Siena paid for all the live house polls. I would definitely contribute to that. I would never contribute $2K for a Gravis poll. At that point, more worth it to just do another $5K PPP poll

Yeah, I gave $20 for the PPP Alaska poll but wouldn't donate $5 for a Gravis poll.
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YE
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« Reply #781 on: July 09, 2020, 10:12:22 PM »
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Holmes
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« Reply #782 on: July 10, 2020, 01:18:37 AM »
I’m guessing Montana or Georgia.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #783 on: July 10, 2020, 08:57:02 AM »
I mentioned this in another thread, but it belongs here:


As for their own polling:


If they were just hucksters, I doubt they'd be commissioning polls from other sources, too.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #784 on: July 10, 2020, 09:03:39 AM »
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #785 on: July 10, 2020, 09:24:53 AM »
Excited for MT.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #786 on: July 10, 2020, 02:49:19 PM »
Quote from: ltomlinson31 on July 10, 2020, 09:03:39 AM


YES!!!!
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #787 on: July 10, 2020, 03:36:49 PM »
Is the Montana poll PPP as well?
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #788 on: July 10, 2020, 03:39:10 PM »
Yep. I'm going to guess Trump +10, Bullock +5, Gianforte +1, and Rosendale +4 as my predictions.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #789 on: July 10, 2020, 03:58:27 PM »
I’m pretty sure that Trump doesn’t lead by more than 8% in MT.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #790 on: July 11, 2020, 10:50:09 AM »
ABC/Wapo are due for a new poll - they usually release Saturday nights at midnight, so here's to hoping
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #791 on: July 11, 2020, 11:58:20 AM »
Quote from: Bidenworth2020 on July 10, 2020, 03:39:10 PM
Yep. I'm going to guess Trump +10, Bullock +5, Gianforte +1, and Rosendale +4 as my predictions.

Should be noted that their last MT poll showed both the Senate and the House race tied, so it would be quite something if the discrepancy in this poll was this wide.

Also don’t be surprised if the poll shows Gianforte doing a few points better Rosendale, it’s been a rough week for Cooney.

That said, my prediction: Trump +7, Bullock +2, Gianforte +3, Rosendale +3
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #792 on: July 12, 2020, 08:14:19 AM »
Polling this cycle is very lackluster. CBS/YouGov haven't done a poll in months, or a Battleground tracker. And even monthly outlets like NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wapo feel like they're now going longer than a month in between polls.

I feel like in 2016, by this point we were waking up on Sundays to tons of new polls.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #793 on: July 12, 2020, 08:25:48 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 12, 2020, 08:14:19 AM
Polling this cycle is very lackluster. CBS/YouGov haven't done a poll in months, or a Battleground tracker. And even monthly outlets like NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wapo feel like they're now going longer than a month in between polls.

I feel like in 2016, by this point we were waking up on Sundays to tons of new polls.

I suspect the industry took a bit of a hit because of the 2016 results, but AFAIK it is also in a state of general decline because it's getting costlier for pollsters to reach a reasonably representative group of people by phone, especially landline.

@Pollster what do you think of the apparent decline in the volume of polls?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #794 on: July 12, 2020, 09:26:29 AM »
Incoming:
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #795 on: July 13, 2020, 07:21:30 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 12, 2020, 09:26:29 AM
Incoming:




So...what does that mean, exactly?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #796 on: July 13, 2020, 07:26:04 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on July 13, 2020, 07:21:30 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 12, 2020, 09:26:29 AM
Incoming:



So...what does that mean, exactly?

It was a teaser for the CBS/YouGov polls of those states that were released yesterday morning.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #797 on: July 13, 2020, 08:03:27 AM »
Hopefully we get NBC/WSJ, CNN, Quinnipiac this week.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #798 on: July 13, 2020, 11:06:51 AM »
Looks like we might be getting a OHPI poll of Arizona this week. Ducey's not looking so hot right now:
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YE
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« Reply #799 on: July 14, 2020, 12:08:34 AM »


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