Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[compucomp]

There’s an interesting article on POLITICO which says that a lot of McAuliffe’s attacks actually helped ramp up turnout in the western part of the state.

That came from Trump making this claim on Tuesday night, lol. However he was on to something, say what you will about the Orange Man but he does have good political instincts even if they make no sense to normies like us not playing 8D chess.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1456641720976879621?s=20

Henrico held up really well for Dems for some reason. 

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1457078851658412032

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1457078851658412032

Thanks Populism Updates, I cannot unsee Glenn Youngkin and Terry McAuliffe with a beard.

[BigSerg]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

NJ

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

NJ

You mean the first time a D governor was re-elected in 44 years, where the election's closeness was more due to typical NJ dynamics that saw the GOP do better than presidential-level baseline would suggest, and where iirc even one Atlas poster said they couldn't convince their family to vote?

[sting in the rafters]

NJ

Murphy's largest losses came in the ancestrally D regions of South Jersey and the sparsely (relatively, no part of NJ is truly rural) populated Pines. He actually did quite well all things considered in the affluent, culturally liberal I-95 corridor.

Compare Christie's 2009 victory map with Murphy's squeaker this past Tuesday. It's not West Caldwell nor the Oranges NJ Ds need to be worried about; It's Swedesboro, Millville, and Vineland.

[Roll Roons]

NJ

Murphy's largest losses came in the ancestrally D regions of South Jersey and the sparsely (relatively, no part of NJ is truly rural) populated Pines. He actually did quite well all things considered in the affluent, culturally liberal I-95 corridor.

Compare Christie's 2009 victory map with Murphy's squeaker this past Tuesday. It's not West Caldwell nor the Oranges NJ Ds need to be worried about; It's Swedesboro, Millville, and Vineland.

Even though Christie-level margins with affluent, educated white voters may no longer possible for the GOP, they still can't get totally crushed with them if they want to win statewide.

[BigSerg]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

NJ

You mean the first time a D governor was re-elected in 44 years, where the election's closeness was more due to typical NJ dynamics that saw the GOP do better than presidential-level baseline would suggest, and where iirc even one Atlas poster said they couldn't convince their family to vote?

Dems holding on to Phil Murphy severely underperforming polls (With the political polarization this is horrible and not comparable to 2012 or 2009) as a cope=Rs holding on to Karen Handel’s narrow win underperforming all previous margins in GA-06 as a cope.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

NJ

You mean the first time a D governor was re-elected in 44 years, where the election's closeness was more due to typical NJ dynamics that saw the GOP do better than presidential-level baseline would suggest, and where iirc even one Atlas poster said they couldn't convince their family to vote?

Dems holding on to Phil Murphy severely underperforming polls (With the political polarization this is horrible and not comparable to 2012 or 2009) as a cope=Rs holding on to Karen Handel’s narrow win underperforming all previous margins in GA-06 as a cope.

Your comparisons are, in all due respect, atrocious. Comparing gubernatorial, presidential, and House special elections, all with different turnout dynamics in significantly different states, makes no sense if done in this way. "Polarization" is not grounds to make any comparison you like and it automatically makes sense. "Cope" is not grounds to automatically dismiss any argument that goes against your own.
You have to compare like with like.
Even 2017>2021 comparisons for NJ-GOV are somewhat deceptive since in 2017 Ds had it very easy with it being both open (retirements still make seats flipping easier) and with the background of a very unpopular R governor overshadowing the Guadagno campaign. Some reversion to the mean was likely inevitable, even if Murphy threw a lot of votes away with gaffes.
I would not say they are uniquely bad though. Punditry has been quite low quality about these elections in general, both on forum, and off of it.

[lfromnj]

Having a dem governor get reelected is such an oddly specific term when  the superset is 3 for Democrats governors running for reelection.

[Skill and Chance]

Also, note VA went from 63% absentee/early vote in 2020 to 37% absentee/early vote in 2021, with the same voting rules in place.  The surge to majority EV was likely a one-time thing due to COVID. 

Nationwide, 2020 was 67% EV and 2016 was 37% EV.  I would strongly expect this will revert back to a majority of votes cast day-of in 2024. 

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1457000779651469320?s=20

[AncestralDemocrat.]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

NJ

You mean the first time a D governor was re-elected in 44 years, where the election's closeness was more due to typical NJ dynamics that saw the GOP do better than presidential-level baseline would suggest, and where iirc even one Atlas poster said they couldn't convince their family to vote?

Dems holding on to Phil Murphy severely underperforming polls (With the political polarization this is horrible and not comparable to 2012 or 2009) as a cope=Rs holding on to Karen Handel’s narrow win underperforming all previous margins in GA-06 as a cope.

Phil has been coping since election day when he refused to accept Wasserman's Virginia call, to trying to reframe Murphy massively underperforming in a Biden +16 state, which also reflected in downballlot results..

[jamestroll]

My beautiful brown skin latino boyfriend and I had lunch at a mexican restaurant in prince william county to celebrate Tmac's victory with latinos.

its obvious he won latins.

[Annatar]

I was quite busy last week so I just looked at the Virginia results in-depth today, I think there are a few things that stand out about this election worth noting.

Firstly, as I had indicated prior to the election, many of the firms who analyse the early vote like Targetsmart are basically run by dems and their analysis of the early vote is always to rosy for democrats, it was the same case this time, predictions that McAuliffe was winning the early vote by 30% or even 25% turned out to be wrong. In a state with no voter registration by party, analysing the early vote is hard, the only thing that could be gleaned from it was that early voting was higher relative to 2020 in counties that voted for Trump then Biden in Virginia to a modest degree, suggesting a moderate Republican turnout edge.

On turnout, the one piece of conventional wisdom that came true was since democrats like to vote early and Republicans on election day, the higher turnout was on election day relative to overall turnout, the better Youngkin would perform. Since turnout was very high on election day, over 2 million, it suggested Republicans would do well state-wide and they did. As an aside, I find it very funny that people were suggesting in this forum and on twitter that very high turnout on election day was somehow not good for Youngkin even though all the evidence suggested it was due to Republicans preferring to vote more on election day relative to democrats.


Finally, the 2021 election was basically an exact copy of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in VA with more or less a uniform shift towards the Republicans. In 2012, Romney lost VA by 4%, he lost Fairfax county by 20%, Fairfax had a partisan lean of D+16 vs the state-wide vote, in 2016 it was D+30 and D+32 in 2020, in this election it was D+32.

The different parts of the Virginia electorate voted identical to 2016 and 2020 in terms of how different groups behaved with a uniform swing towards Republicans. The election suggests there will not be a return to the pre 2016 alignment and the 2016 election represented a new alignment which is durable.

[Person Man]

I was quite busy last week so I just looked at the Virginia results in-depth today, I think there are a few things that stand out about this election worth noting.

Firstly, as I had indicated prior to the election, many of the firms who analyse the early vote like Targetsmart are basically run by dems and their analysis of the early vote is always to rosy for democrats, it was the same case this time, predictions that McAuliffe was winning the early vote by 30% or even 25% turned out to be wrong. In a state with no voter registration by party, analysing the early vote is hard, the only thing that could be gleaned from it was that early voting was higher relative to 2020 in counties that voted for Trump then Biden in Virginia to a modest degree, suggesting a moderate Republican turnout edge.

On turnout, the one piece of conventional wisdom that came true was since democrats like to vote early and Republicans on election day, the higher turnout was on election day relative to overall turnout, the better Youngkin would perform. Since turnout was very high on election day, over 2 million, it suggested Republicans would do well state-wide and they did. As an aside, I find it very funny that people were suggesting in this forum and on twitter that very high turnout on election day was somehow not good for Youngkin even though all the evidence suggested it was due to Republicans preferring to vote more on election day relative to democrats.


Finally, the 2021 election was basically an exact copy of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in VA with more or less a uniform shift towards the Republicans. In 2012, Romney lost VA by 4%, he lost Fairfax county by 20%, Fairfax had a partisan lean of D+16 vs the state-wide vote, in 2016 it was D+30 and D+32 in 2020, in this election it was D+32.

The different parts of the Virginia electorate voted identical to 2016 and 2020 in terms of how different groups behaved with a uniform swing towards Republicans. The election suggests there will not be a return to the pre 2016 alignment and the 2016 election represented a new alignment which is durable.

This. Along with the vote in New Jersey, it did feel like there was more or less a 12% R shift in both states from D+16 and D+10 to D+2/3 and R+2. Which leads me to believe that it wasn’t about changing coalitions (except for maybe Virginia is still slightly trending and New Jersey is steady) or candidate quality but that 1) a lot of people are ready to move on from the pandemic and 2) Biden wasn’t able to do anything with his agenda.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Politicsfan13/status/1457194261221412865?s=20

[😥]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1457356443615731718?t=S2Wn8B0IHigzGOWTIxzLsA&a...

And I'am absolutely agree with Senator Warner here. Shame on you, so-called "moderates" and so-called "progressives"

[Skill and Chance]

I was quite busy last week so I just looked at the Virginia results in-depth today, I think there are a few things that stand out about this election worth noting.

Firstly, as I had indicated prior to the election, many of the firms who analyse the early vote like Targetsmart are basically run by dems and their analysis of the early vote is always to rosy for democrats, it was the same case this time, predictions that McAuliffe was winning the early vote by 30% or even 25% turned out to be wrong. In a state with no voter registration by party, analysing the early vote is hard, the only thing that could be gleaned from it was that early voting was higher relative to 2020 in counties that voted for Trump then Biden in Virginia to a modest degree, suggesting a moderate Republican turnout edge.

On turnout, the one piece of conventional wisdom that came true was since democrats like to vote early and Republicans on election day, the higher turnout was on election day relative to overall turnout, the better Youngkin would perform. Since turnout was very high on election day, over 2 million, it suggested Republicans would do well state-wide and they did. As an aside, I find it very funny that people were suggesting in this forum and on twitter that very high turnout on election day was somehow not good for Youngkin even though all the evidence suggested it was due to Republicans preferring to vote more on election day relative to democrats.


Finally, the 2021 election was basically an exact copy of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in VA with more or less a uniform shift towards the Republicans. In 2012, Romney lost VA by 4%, he lost Fairfax county by 20%, Fairfax had a partisan lean of D+16 vs the state-wide vote, in 2016 it was D+30 and D+32 in 2020, in this election it was D+32.

The different parts of the Virginia electorate voted identical to 2016 and 2020 in terms of how different groups behaved with a uniform swing towards Republicans. The election suggests there will not be a return to the pre 2016 alignment and the 2016 election represented a new alignment which is durable.

The problem is the 2016 coalition doesn't actually help Dems win anything.  What they need is for the Biden coalition to filter downballot and solve their geography problems through Southern suburbs and small cities more generally.  So far, that just isn't happening.   

[Mr.Phips]

I was quite busy last week so I just looked at the Virginia results in-depth today, I think there are a few things that stand out about this election worth noting.

Firstly, as I had indicated prior to the election, many of the firms who analyse the early vote like Targetsmart are basically run by dems and their analysis of the early vote is always to rosy for democrats, it was the same case this time, predictions that McAuliffe was winning the early vote by 30% or even 25% turned out to be wrong. In a state with no voter registration by party, analysing the early vote is hard, the only thing that could be gleaned from it was that early voting was higher relative to 2020 in counties that voted for Trump then Biden in Virginia to a modest degree, suggesting a moderate Republican turnout edge.

On turnout, the one piece of conventional wisdom that came true was since democrats like to vote early and Republicans on election day, the higher turnout was on election day relative to overall turnout, the better Youngkin would perform. Since turnout was very high on election day, over 2 million, it suggested Republicans would do well state-wide and they did. As an aside, I find it very funny that people were suggesting in this forum and on twitter that very high turnout on election day was somehow not good for Youngkin even though all the evidence suggested it was due to Republicans preferring to vote more on election day relative to democrats.


Finally, the 2021 election was basically an exact copy of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in VA with more or less a uniform shift towards the Republicans. In 2012, Romney lost VA by 4%, he lost Fairfax county by 20%, Fairfax had a partisan lean of D+16 vs the state-wide vote, in 2016 it was D+30 and D+32 in 2020, in this election it was D+32.

The different parts of the Virginia electorate voted identical to 2016 and 2020 in terms of how different groups behaved with a uniform swing towards Republicans. The election suggests there will not be a return to the pre 2016 alignment and the 2016 election represented a new alignment which is durable.

The problem is the 2016 coalition doesn't actually help Dems win anything.  What they need is for the Biden coalition to filter downballot and solve their geography problems through Southern suburbs and small cities more generally.  So far, that just isn't happening.   

The Biden coalition in 2020 was a short term reaction to Trump, much like the Carter coalition in 1976 was a one time reaction to reaction to Watergate.

[Skill and Chance]

I was quite busy last week so I just looked at the Virginia results in-depth today, I think there are a few things that stand out about this election worth noting.

Firstly, as I had indicated prior to the election, many of the firms who analyse the early vote like Targetsmart are basically run by dems and their analysis of the early vote is always to rosy for democrats, it was the same case this time, predictions that McAuliffe was winning the early vote by 30% or even 25% turned out to be wrong. In a state with no voter registration by party, analysing the early vote is hard, the only thing that could be gleaned from it was that early voting was higher relative to 2020 in counties that voted for Trump then Biden in Virginia to a modest degree, suggesting a moderate Republican turnout edge.

On turnout, the one piece of conventional wisdom that came true was since democrats like to vote early and Republicans on election day, the higher turnout was on election day relative to overall turnout, the better Youngkin would perform. Since turnout was very high on election day, over 2 million, it suggested Republicans would do well state-wide and they did. As an aside, I find it very funny that people were suggesting in this forum and on twitter that very high turnout on election day was somehow not good for Youngkin even though all the evidence suggested it was due to Republicans preferring to vote more on election day relative to democrats.


Finally, the 2021 election was basically an exact copy of the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections in VA with more or less a uniform shift towards the Republicans. In 2012, Romney lost VA by 4%, he lost Fairfax county by 20%, Fairfax had a partisan lean of D+16 vs the state-wide vote, in 2016 it was D+30 and D+32 in 2020, in this election it was D+32.

The different parts of the Virginia electorate voted identical to 2016 and 2020 in terms of how different groups behaved with a uniform swing towards Republicans. The election suggests there will not be a return to the pre 2016 alignment and the 2016 election represented a new alignment which is durable.

The problem is the 2016 coalition doesn't actually help Dems win anything.  What they need is for the Biden coalition to filter downballot and solve their geography problems through Southern suburbs and small cities more generally.  So far, that just isn't happening.   

The Biden coalition in 2020 was a short term reaction to Trump, much like the Carter coalition in 1976 was a one time reaction to reaction to Watergate.

If that is true, then Dems are screwed for a decade, especially with the Hispanic GOP trend continuing beyond Trump.

2024 will likely produce a GOP supermajority in the senate if they win the presidential race, so it's kind of a must-win for Dems.  I could see the party that loses 2028 being better off in the long run though, between redistricting control, China likely peaking in power, and the social security/medicare situation really coming to a head.  But 2024 is the Republican New Deal if they win.   

[MT Treasurer]

There’s an interesting article on POLITICO which says that a lot of McAuliffe’s attacks actually helped ramp up turnout in the western part of the state.

It is often forgotten but Mark Warner very nearly lost in 2014 and I believe that he only managed to hold onto due to his historic links and over performance in the western edge.

Yes, I think the abortion issue had a lot to do with this (voters who cited it as their most important issue broke for Youngkin 60-40). In spite of NSV's and others' assertions to the contrary, McAuliffe's pro-choice-with-zero-exceptions position was not perceived as less extreme than Youngkin's standard pro-life-with-the-usual-exceptions position, and the Youngkin campaign had a few really good ads up about the whole issue before the whole school/CRT thing broke.

McAuliffe's extremist abortion position almost certainly further galvanized the evangelical / rural, small-town GOP base and was a big reason why Youngkin outperformed even Trump in most of these counties.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There’s an interesting article on POLITICO which says that a lot of McAuliffe’s attacks actually helped ramp up turnout in the western part of the state.

It is often forgotten but Mark Warner very nearly lost in 2014 and I believe that he only managed to hold onto due to his historic links and over performance in the western edge.

Yes, I think the abortion issue had a lot to do with this (voters who cited it as their most important issue broke for Youngkin 60-40). In spite of NSV's and others' assertions to the contrary, McAuliffe's pro-choice-with-zero-exceptions position was not perceived as less extreme than Youngkin's standard pro-life-with-the-usual-exceptions position, and the Youngkin campaign had a few really good ads up about the whole issue before the whole school/CRT thing broke.

McAuliffe's extremist abortion position almost certainly further galvanized the evangelical / rural, small-town GOP base and was a big reason why Youngkin outperformed even Trump in most of these counties.

Still more evidence that preaching to the choir cost McAuliffe dearly this election.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Question:  Has Non-Swing Voter apologized?  They really do owe a lot of posters an apology.  I don't mean that they should apologize for thinking McAuliffe would win, but they should definitely apologize for mocking other posters who suggested McAuliffe might not win, or that it might even be competitive.