Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[It’s so Joever]

*tweet*

And keep in mind that this is just vote-share: margin difference between Warner and McAuliffe would be double those figures.

Some fun examples:
Covington (City): Warner 46%, McAuliffe 32%
Henry County: Warner 41%, McAuliffe 29%
Bristol (City): Warner 36%, McAuliffe 26%
Radford (City): Warner 57%, McAuliffe 45%
Richmond County: Warner 42%, McAuliffe 29%

What's really crazy is that in the hardest-hit areas for Ds, the cities slid just as much - and in several cases, even more than the surrounding, more rural environs (see Bristol vs Washington, Covington vs Alleghany, Danville vs Pittsylvania, Galax vs Carroll & Grayson, Radford vs Montgomery, Salem vs Roanoke County, etc).

I thought I'd redo this on a more granular level, showing 1-point increments rather than 3:

In a way, this map does not negate trends contrary to the narrative on Atlas.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It is quite remarkable that literally every county and county-equivalent in the state swing in Youngkin's favor.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems clear VA Dems benefit from running a non-NOVA candidate.  Northam (former state senator from the Eastern Shore) ran statewide with 2 NOVA candidates in both 2013 and 2017 and substantially outperformed both of them both times.  Kaine (former Mayor of Richmond) also tends to outperform, with the 2018 blowout, running ahead of Obama in 2012, and winning Governor in 2005 while the NOVA LG candidate lost. 

Youngkin currently lives in NOVA, but he was born in Richmond and spent part of his childhood in Virginia Beach, so he clearly had a better connection downstate.  Mark Warner is similar in that he built up really strong rural connections over the years.

[Suburbia]

Would former Senator and Governor George Allen have won if he ran this year?

[jamestroll]

NO MORE LOCKDOWNS!

[Fuzzy Bear]

Would former Senator and Governor George Allen have won if he ran this year?

Maybe not.  George Allen was in his prime years when in office, but he'll be 70 next year and he looked a tad rough recently.  He's the kind of candidate whose past would hold him back, and would cause folks to give up on him when the going got tough.  (I personally think Cuccinelli would have beaten T-Mac in 2013 had the GOP not given up on him.)

Youngkin was an articulate, disciplined candidate who didn't scare people and spoke to voters on what was on THEIR mind.  He didn't overplay his hand on the School Curriculum issue, and he got a big assist from Merrick Garland (who DID overplay HIS hand).  He was an impressive candidate who ran a GREAT campaign.  T-Mac was an unattractive candidate who made unforced errors. 

[Duke of York]

Would former Senator and Governor George Allen have won if he ran this year?

Maybe not.  George Allen was in his prime years when in office, but he'll be 70 next year and he looked a tad rough recently.  He's the kind of candidate whose past would hold him back, and would cause folks to give up on him when the going got tough.  (I personally think Cuccinelli would have beaten T-Mac in 2013 had the GOP not given up on him.)

Youngkin was an articulate, disciplined candidate who didn't scare people and spoke to voters on what was on THEIR mind.  He didn't overplay his hand on the School Curriculum issue, and he got a big assist from Merrick Garland (who DID overplay HIS hand).  He was an impressive candidate who ran a GREAT campaign.  T-Mac was an unattractive candidate who made unforced errors. 

He also only got the nomination because the party held a convention to keep Chase from getting the nomination. Thats not an option Republicans have in many states.

[Skill and Chance]

Would former Senator and Governor George Allen have won if he ran this year?

Maybe not.  George Allen was in his prime years when in office, but he'll be 70 next year and he looked a tad rough recently.  He's the kind of candidate whose past would hold him back, and would cause folks to give up on him when the going got tough.  (I personally think Cuccinelli would have beaten T-Mac in 2013 had the GOP not given up on him.)

Youngkin was an articulate, disciplined candidate who didn't scare people and spoke to voters on what was on THEIR mind.  He didn't overplay his hand on the School Curriculum issue, and he got a big assist from Merrick Garland (who DID overplay HIS hand).  He was an impressive candidate who ran a GREAT campaign.  T-Mac was an unattractive candidate who made unforced errors. 

Given that Youngkin won by less than 2, I'm pretty sure Allen would have lost.  He's ancient, but he's also a gaffe machine with practically no appeal in urban areas of the state.  He would also neutralize the retread/sneak around term limits issues McAuliffe had.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Would former Senator and Governor George Allen have won if he ran this year?

Maybe not.  George Allen was in his prime years when in office, but he'll be 70 next year and he looked a tad rough recently.  He's the kind of candidate whose past would hold him back, and would cause folks to give up on him when the going got tough.  (I personally think Cuccinelli would have beaten T-Mac in 2013 had the GOP not given up on him.)

Youngkin was an articulate, disciplined candidate who didn't scare people and spoke to voters on what was on THEIR mind.  He didn't overplay his hand on the School Curriculum issue, and he got a big assist from Merrick Garland (who DID overplay HIS hand).  He was an impressive candidate who ran a GREAT campaign.  T-Mac was an unattractive candidate who made unforced errors. 

Given that Youngkin won by less than 2, I'm pretty sure Allen would have lost.  He's ancient, but he's also a gaffe machine with practically no appeal in urban areas of the state.  He would also neutralize the retread/sneak around term limits issues McAuliffe had.

He's not a "gaffe machine".  His "Macaca" statement and its effects were overblown.  Allen lost because of demographic change, and because of the shifting of public opinion on our involvement in Iraq.

[jamestroll]

If Republicans can only manage a less than 2 point victory against the tmac campaign in 2021 I am not optimistic for the GOP future in Virginia. 

But my original point remains.. its not a solid dem state and Warner could be dislodged in a Biden midterm.

I myself voted for sears over disdain of some of the worst elements of the left.

[MT Treasurer]

If Republicans can only manage a less than 2 point victory against the tmac campaign in 2021 I am not optimistic for the GOP future in Virginia.

Yes, it’s pretty obvious that the Youngkin coalition won’t be enough for the VA GOP by 2029, maybe not even by 2025 (especially against a far less damaged, more competent, 'fresh' D candidate) — there’s very little rural/small-town vote left to max/turn out, and the R shift in the big three D-trending areas was rather underwhelming when you consider how much Republicans had going in their favor in this election. Barring significant inroads with non-white voters, this will probably remain the GOP's (resounding) last hurrah in VA.

[jamestroll]

If Republicans can only manage a less than 2 point victory against the tmac campaign in 2021 I am not optimistic for the GOP future in Virginia.

Yes, it’s pretty obvious that the Youngkin coalition won’t be enough for the VA GOP by 2029, maybe not even by 2025 (especially against a far less damaged, more competent, 'fresh' D candidate) — there’s very little rural/small-town vote left to max/turn out, and the R shift in the big three D-trending areas was rather underwhelming when you consider how much Republicans had going in their favor in this election. Barring significant inroads with non-white voters, this will probably remain the GOP's (resounding) last hurrah in VA.

Look at Loudoun county.. the epicenter all of all the.. sometimes legit.. grievances the gop had. Even I moaned about them to you..

Youngkin was perfect candidate to perhaps win Loudoun but he still lose it by double digits in a climate like 2021.

Henrico held up very well .. and Chesterfield is barely to the states right now.

I guess the real question is.. wide spread remote work.. if it causes an exodus out if nova. That could be a Democratic curveball. Depends where they move of course.

Will the gop hold the Hod next cycle? Probably not unless the climate is worse for Dems than 2021.

[Skill and Chance]

If Republicans can only manage a less than 2 point victory against the tmac campaign in 2021 I am not optimistic for the GOP future in Virginia.

Yes, it’s pretty obvious that the Youngkin coalition won’t be enough for the VA GOP by 2029, maybe not even by 2025 (especially against a far less damaged, more competent, 'fresh' D candidate) — there’s very little rural/small-town vote left to max/turn out, and the R shift in the big three D-trending areas was rather underwhelming when you consider how much Republicans had going in their favor in this election. Barring significant inroads with non-white voters, this will probably remain the GOP's (resounding) last hurrah in VA.

The Youngkin Hampton Roads was actually pretty impressive.  However, 2017 was a D candidate with local connections vs. an insider NOVA R and then 2021 was an R candidate with local connections vs. an insider NOVA D, so some caution is warranted.

NOVA was unimpressive vs. expectations after the Loudoun scandals, but still pretty in line with statewide. 

Richmond was where D's really held the line impressively.  Chesterfield should not have been that close.

So there is clearly a path during a Dem presidency if that Hampton Roads performance can be replicated, but IMO nothing can save them when an R is president again. 

   

[jamestroll]

Great falls is often thought of the Darien Connecticut counterpart of  Virginia  but..

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1456869669772660739

..its really not..

And Glenn Youngkins delegate is a Democrat who won 57%

[jamestroll]

Why did so many have Virginia a solid Dem as New Jersey, Illinois or even Washington or even California at times?

Now Election Twitter has it painted as a solid gop state.

Niether which was ever true.

[BoiseBoy]

Closest district was VA-10.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1460659975093686275?s=21

[jamestroll]

Closest district was VA-10.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1460659975093686275?s=21

Nope, Wexton is not particularly in danger in 2022. Her new district may be more compact and don't forget that VA-10 has rural areas in it

[Skill and Chance]

Closest district was VA-10.

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1460659975093686275?s=21

Wow VA-09 had a higher R margin than the D margin in VA-08, and the R margin in VA-06 was higher than the D margin in VA-03.

Also VA-02 was Biden +5->Youngkin +8.2 while VA-07 was Biden +1->Youngkin +10.7.  Without redistricting, Luria might have more to worry about than Spanberger.   

[jamestroll]

LMAO!!!

Loudoun further to the left of the state in 2021 than it did in 2017.

What will convince people on twitter that Loudoun wont vote GOP in 2024??

[Chips]

Spanberger will very likely be in trouble it seems.

[Chips]

According to New York Times, every subdivision has 100% in.

Here's the probable final margins for all 3 races:

GOVERNOR:

Youngkin+63,480

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:

Sears+50,076

ATTORNEY GENERAL:

Miyares+26,307

[Skill and Chance]

According to New York Times, every subdivision has 100% in.

Here's the probable final margins for all 3 races:

GOVERNOR:

Youngkin+63,480

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:

Sears+50,076

ATTORNEY GENERAL:

Miyares+26,307

Anyone have the statewide PV for the HoD?  I'm pretty sure it was narrowly Republican?

Also, with Miyares trailing the other other 2 R's significantly (surprising to me because I expected him to perform the best), I have to think Jay Jones would have held AG for the Democrats if he had won the primary.

[Woody]

According to New York Times, every subdivision has 100% in.

Here's the probable final margins for all 3 races:

GOVERNOR:

Youngkin+63,480

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:

Sears+50,076

ATTORNEY GENERAL:

Miyares+26,307

Anyone have the statewide PV for the HoD?  I'm pretty sure it was narrowly Republican?

Also, with Miyares trailing the other other 2 R's significantly (surprising to me because I expected him to perform the best), I have to think Jay Jones would have held AG for the Democrats if he had won the primary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Virginia_House_of_Delegates_election

Republicans won by 4 points.

[Skill and Chance]

According to New York Times, every subdivision has 100% in.

Here's the probable final margins for all 3 races:

GOVERNOR:

Youngkin+63,480

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:

Sears+50,076

ATTORNEY GENERAL:

Miyares+26,307

Anyone have the statewide PV for the HoD?  I'm pretty sure it was narrowly Republican?

Also, with Miyares trailing the other other 2 R's significantly (surprising to me because I expected him to perform the best), I have to think Jay Jones would have held AG for the Democrats if he had won the primary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Virginia_House_of_Delegates_election

Republicans won by 4 points.

Wow, so significantly better than statewide. 

On the other hand, this means the significant pro-GOP geographic bias of the 2010's is gone now. 

[jamestroll]

According to New York Times, every subdivision has 100% in.

Here's the probable final margins for all 3 races:

GOVERNOR:

Youngkin+63,480

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR:

Sears+50,076

ATTORNEY GENERAL:

Miyares+26,307

Anyone have the statewide PV for the HoD?  I'm pretty sure it was narrowly Republican?

Also, with Miyares trailing the other other 2 R's significantly (surprising to me because I expected him to perform the best), I have to think Jay Jones would have held AG for the Democrats if he had won the primary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Virginia_House_of_Delegates_election

Republicans won by 4 points.

Democrats left several races uncontested.

Anyway I voted for Rasoul and Jones in primary for a reason.