Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[gerritcole]

Underrated angle here is that the dem big figures might not have the same pull, Obama doesn’t have the Same pull now that’s he’s a jet hopping Martha’s Vineyard elite and Stacey Abrams and Kamala Harris and of course Biden also didn’t come through

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1456641720976879621?s=20

[BigSerg]

Mmmm....
https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1456657850797858827?s=20

[Sbane]

This indicates, Trumpism without [the toxicity of] Trump is real thing. If so, Dems should be panicking.

Republicans will have a lot of success if they run on Trump policies but without the personality. Even Jack Ciattarelli's video not conceding the race was fairly rational and asked people not to buy into conspiracy theories and be patient while the votes are being counted. What a refreshing change from Trump.

[Calthrina950]

Underrated angle here is that the dem big figures might not have the same pull, Obama doesn’t have the Same pull now that’s he’s a jet hopping Martha’s Vineyard elite and Stacey Abrams and Kamala Harris and of course Biden also didn’t come through

Obama has never had a "pull" for downballot candidates, as can be seen by what occurred in 2010 and 2014, and even in 2018, when he campaigned for Abrams, Gillum, and Nelson. He has only been an effective campaigner for himself. And yes, many in the Democratic base, particularly young progressives, are no longer as enthused or moved by Obama as they were when he was first running for office.

[Skill and Chance]

Skip

I think the one thing we can learn from this is that Democrats are doomed in 2022 with that level of WWC support

Yeah, this is just really grim for Dems.  There's no way to spin this and it wasn't at all candidate-specific.  They can get VA back by matching or exceeding Biden with the college+ vote, but how they can possibly counter reverse-NYC style rural voting in the presidential swing states, let alone the senate?  That's the ballgame federally and we get the Republican New Deal in either 2025 or 29.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Skip

I think the one thing we can learn from this is that Democrats are doomed in 2022 with that level of WWC support

Yeah, this is just really grim for Dems.  There's no way to spin this and it wasn't at all candidate-specific.  They can get VA back by matching or exceeding Biden with the college+ vote, but how they can possibly counter reverse-NYC style rural voting in the presidential swing states, let alone the senate?  That's the ballgame federally and we get the Republican New Deal in either 2025 or 29.

One has to agree that, *should* rural support sink in 2022 to levels we saw here (not at all saying it's at all guaranteed or even predictable) it's bad news for Ds. In Virginia, had McAuliffe held Biden numbers in NoVa and got the same numbers elsewhere, he would have won - all the statewide Dems would have. But most of the country is not Virginia, even if most GOP candidates are not going to be on the level of Youngkin (whose discipline and cunning really made this result possible in the first place).

Ds cannot neglect the rural vote,  even if it's getting less important as time goes by. Moreover, most suburbs aren't NoVa either. NoVa is unusually Democratic by suburban standards, with very strong Dem fundamentals. If Youngkin is able to get what he needs in that sort of area by laser-focusing on the nebulous topic of "education", then that's proof that one cannot automatically assume suburbs are going to be safe in general.

Neglect any place and your opponent can get what they want there unchallenged. Easy solutions are not common in politics and while it's not all smooth sailing for Rs, far from it, Ds cannot get complacent.

Dems would be well served by focusing on broad appeal and contesting all demographics. Get votes from whereever you can. A vote is a vote.
The same is true for Rs.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/LVozzella/status/1456702453542498315

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/LVozzella/status/1456702453542498315

What...

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/LVozzella/status/1456702453542498315

What...

"Election integrity story" lol.

“Based upon information available to me now, it appears that he committed no election offense,” Konopasek said in a statement. Konopasek added that Thomas Youngkin did not make any false statements or disrupt voting, which are crimes under Virginia election law."

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/LVozzella/status/1456702453542498315

What...

"Election integrity story" lol.

“Based upon information available to me now, it appears that he committed no election offense,” Konopasek said in a statement. Konopasek added that Thomas Youngkin did not make any false statements or disrupt voting, which are crimes under Virginia election law."

It was a really entitled thing for the kid to do.

[Badger]

https://fredericksburg.com/news/va_md_dc/former-gop-state-delegate-wants-republicans-to-write-in-her/article_73732484-46a2-5e85-b94e-0ceac963a9bf.html

“The Republican Party never saluted the Confederate flag, did not fight under the Confederate flag ... and he is our candidate, our nominee?” she said. “He does not represent the party of Lincoln. ... He is not a true Republican.”

Didn't know this about Sears.

So Confederate statues are definitely not coming back.

 Good on her for doing that.

[Badger]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

100,000 new residents or about 25 percent population growth in 10 years. Primarily Hispanics and Asians.

Youngkin did really well with Hispanics tho

Any exit poll claiming Youngkin got above 40 percent with Hispanics is BS. Instead of relying on exit polls we have actual data from majority hispanic areas in NOVA showing around 35-38 Youngkin. Anyway Because Romney only lost Loudoun by four any demographics that is more than 52-48 D will be a net loss for republicans there and contribute to a growing democratic victory margain in Loudoun.

Data shows more than 40% with Hispanics

 Is what "data" are you referencing thing beyond the aforementioned is exit polls and, arguably more accurate, precinct results?

Wouldn’t you agree that the CNN and fox exit polls were both wrong. There’s no way looking at precinct data that Youngkin did worse than Trump with this group. 55% GOP? Still probably sus

 I'm sorry, but I still have no idea what you're basing your data on data on.  Exit polls, but only particular ones?

[kyc0705]

It was a really entitled thing for the kid to do.

I mean, his father is a CEO worth $440 million who was just elected governor, so I'm not all that surprised the kid would show signs of obnoxious entitlement.

[EastwoodS]

Honestly….how did Romney only lose loudoun by 4

100,000 new residents or about 25 percent population growth in 10 years. Primarily Hispanics and Asians.

Youngkin did really well with Hispanics tho

Any exit poll claiming Youngkin got above 40 percent with Hispanics is BS. Instead of relying on exit polls we have actual data from majority hispanic areas in NOVA showing around 35-38 Youngkin. Anyway Because Romney only lost Loudoun by four any demographics that is more than 52-48 D will be a net loss for republicans there and contribute to a growing democratic victory margain in Loudoun.

Data shows more than 40% with Hispanics

 Is what "data" are you referencing thing beyond the aforementioned is exit polls and, arguably more accurate, precinct results?

Wouldn’t you agree that the CNN and fox exit polls were both wrong. There’s no way looking at precinct data that Youngkin did worse than Trump with this group. 55% GOP? Still probably sus

 I'm sorry, but I still have no idea what you're basing your data on data on.  Exit polls, but only particular ones?

Precinct data that show shifts towards the GOP. Why don’t democrats stop being in denial about the obvious Hispanics shifts towards republicans? Catholics didn’t stay with democrats forever just like Hispanics won’t either..

[Matty]

Should the gop be concerned that Buchanan county actually trended blue compared to 2020 election?

[One Term Floridian]

Should the gop be concerned that Buchanan county actually trended blue compared to 2020 election?

How much redder can it get now? It was bound to be maxed out at some point.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Should the gop be concerned that Buchanan county actually trended blue compared to 2020 election?

Yes, in 50 years Buchanan county will have the population the size of Maryland and vote 90-10 democratic. Republicans in Virginia are ignoring Buchanan county at their own peril.

[Calthrina950]

Should the gop be concerned that Buchanan county actually trended blue compared to 2020 election?

Yes, in 50 years Buchanan county will have the population the size of Maryland and vote 90-10 democratic. Republicans in Virginia are ignoring Buchanan county at their own peril.

I've noticed that random rural counties will sometimes display a trend or swing towards Democrats although it ultimately means little and that county remains powerfully Republican.

[sting in the rafters]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

[iceman]

is it me or both candidates lost a few votes in the past days?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "respectability politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

Interesting analysis.
You raise a lot of good points, I gave you a recommend.
Also I'd be surprised if Youngkin didn't win first-time voters.

[omar04]

What evidence is there that there was some massive reversion of suburbanites who despite supporting conservative policies voted blue the last four years because of "civility politics"? T-Mac won Biden voters 95-5 according to exit polls. While exit polls aren't always reliable, I highly doubt the true marginal was significantly different given the county data we have.  The fact that NOVA, the region with the highest voting propensity in the state trended D in the row offices indicates it was more a function of turnout. NOVA isn't full of swing voters, it is the Democratic base.

If we're ranking the 3 sources of Youngkin's margin of victory relative to Northam's in 2017, they are as follows:

1a) Northam-Not voting (This is the swing in the Tidewater where black turnout was notably depressed. In addition, T-Mac's raw margins in the rural regions indicate that whatever remaining vestigal WWC support Ds have opted to stay at home.)
1b) Not voting-Youngkin (The swing in Appalachia where turnout was up considerably compared to 4 Novembers ago)

BIG GAP

3) Northam-Youngkin

Further proof of this arises from 2013. According to exit polls T-Mac actually did worse with independents in 2013 than he did this year; the difference is the partisan gap was D+5 and this year it was D+2. Now, I can admit my bias here is in favor of wanting to believe that the Democratic agenda isn't the issue, but when the recalled 2020 vote is Biden +4 as opposed to the Biden+10 result last November, the black vote is only 16% of the electorate, that indicates base turnout is more of a culprit here than any hand-wringing over "turning off moderates".

Simply put, the campaign couldn't explain to its target audience why it should get to the polls. T-Mac talked in his concession speech about raising the minimum wage, fighting for paid leave, and expanding Medicaid. Where was any of that in the campaign? Why let Youngkin have free rein in defining the issues of the race?

McAuliffe actually had around 12% more votes than Northam (1,588,149 and 1,409,175 respectively) to add on to your points about turnout and of course VA is not a friendly environment for gubernational candidates for the President's party...

[sting in the rafters]

McAuliffe actually had around 12% more votes than Northam (1,588,149 and 1,409,175 respectively) to add on to your points about turnout and of course VA is not a friendly environment for gubernational candidates for the President's party...

From bro up the thread (sorry can’t find quote im pretty twisted rn) but while T-Mac managed to increase the raw numbers and share of total registered voters from 25.67% in 17 to 26.69%, the largest decreases in vote share were in the Tidewater/Richmond metro. I don’t think it’s a coincidence the counties which saw the largest drop-off in vote share saw the largest swings. This also matches up w/Youngkin winning >10% of the black vote; the miniscule portion of the black population which is R-leaning was engaged.

Indeed, the outparty nearly almost always has the enthusiasm advantage. It’s one of the reasons why Youngkin gained almost half a million raw votes on Gillispie’s 2017 performance as well as going from 21.42% of registered voters to 27.90%. And despite that massive increase in base turnout, Ds still woulda won if they worked to match by motivating their core constituencies.

Bottom line, Ds choked away a winnable race, and if they don’t learn the lessons regarding voter engagement then they’re gonna blow PA/MI/WI next fall too.

[Blair]

There’s an interesting article on POLITICO which says that a lot of McAuliffe’s attacks actually helped ramp up turnout in the western part of the state.

It is often forgotten but Mark Warner very nearly lost in 2014 and I believe that he only managed to hold onto due to his historic links and over performance in the western edge.