Florida 2022 Megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

When it comes to funding though, Fried is an easy winner. Odd how calling DeSantis a fascist dictator makes you a lot of money, but hey, go off I guess. She'll probably get the endorsement of a bunch of democrat organizations anyways, which also includes more money from them.

And as for the debates, Fried I think will be a lot more superior in her performances. She'll try to attack DeSantis where it hurts, while also possibly calling Crist a flip-flopper in the process. Crist could maybe hit her back by talking about her friendship with now disgraced congressman Matt Gaetz, which may or may not hurt Fried in the end even with a decent debate performance.

I'd also add in that I think Fried would do better at energizing her base to vote than Crist. Crist seems kinda boring and just there, while Fried is energetically attacking DeSantis from all angles, plus her calling him a fascist dictator like I mentioned before. I could easily see politicians/celebrities like Stacey Abrams, Harris, Biden, Obama, and (sorry republican parrotheads) Jimmy Buffett doing rallies with Fried.

In the end though, no matter who the democrats nominate, DeSantis will still win by 5-10%.

[Donerail]

Many, many things have been said about Charlie Crist over his 30+ years in politics but I don't think anyone has ever describing him as "kinda boring."

[brucejoel99]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

[Real Texan Politics]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

[brucejoel99]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

Very much so, yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Election is 17 mnths away, this race isn't over by a long shot it will eventually narrow, with Bidens approvals the D's can win a red state OH, IA, NC and FL because all of our House races are in 50 states

If the Rs can contest NH and GA, D's can contest FL

[Real Texan Politics]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

Very much so, yes.

May also help that Fried is from the Miami area, so that could possibly help her win the big 3 Miami area counties?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

DeSantis and is favored to win but FL always is close, let's not kid ourselves, even in that AZ poll that has Kelly ahead by 10 that these Key races arent gonna be 10 pts it will be within margin of error, even MI, WI and PA

Due to fact Minority groups are understated in polls, Afro Americans aren't voting for DeSANTIS, there are females and Arabs in many of these states that aren't voting R


The only Gov that will win by double digits is DeWine all groups like DeWine, but the Sen race was within margin of error

[Not Me, Us]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

Very much so, yes.

May also help that Fried is from the Miami area, so that could possibly help her win the big 3 Miami area counties?

Not necessarily.

In my opinion, it'll only help her maybe in Fort Lauderdale, Deerfield Beach, Parkland, places where it's popular to own the cons without pushing any actual policy. She has zero appeal to the Hispanics and Black people where I live (anecdotally), and it's doubtful that people even know she's from our county.

In fact, this is even backed up by the data, in Miramar, where I live (and this is a 45% Black, 35% Hispanic city), she underperformed Gillum in the 2018 election, despite being from our county.

Miramar Two-Party Results (Population 138,168)

Agriculture Commissioner

[R] Matt Caldwell: 8,987 votes (18.97%)
[D] Nikki Fried: 38,382 votes (81.03%)

D+62.06

Governor

[R] Ron DeSantis: 8,925 votes (18.56%)
[D] Andrew Gillum: 39,173 votes (81.44%)

D+62.88

And my city has lots of Cubans and Venezuelans, so this is a place where the socialism attack should've worked perfectly on Gillum (and it did on Biden, Miramar swung 10% or so to Republicans in 2020) and should theoretically have caused a DeSantis overperformance. But Gillum still performed better than Fried even after those attacks and his socialist image. Bernie also lost against Biden massively here.

Fried similarly underperformed in neighboring Pembroke Pines (Population 168,280) (45% Hispanic and 20% Black).


I wouldn't be surprised if the same held true in Miami-Dade's Black and Hispanic areas.

Crist, Demings, or Messam (who won over 86% of the vote in the Mayoral election) would do much better.

Is Messam considering a run? I thought he was going to run in the special election for FL-20.

[Real Texan Politics]

She’s in.
https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1399791366712999943?s=21

[President Johnson]

I think she should wait to 2026. Crist is a better candidate for 2022, but neither is likely to win despite DeSantis being a poor governor.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Endorsed. Way better than Crist.

[Donerail]

Expected. Going to donate another $50 to Crist.

[brucejoel99]

Undecided 'til Taddeo confirms whether or not she's running too. If she doesn't, then I'll be for Fried, but if she does, then I'll have a real decision to make over these next 14 months.

In other news, the Florida Democratic Party forgot to renew the floridadems.com domain & the GOP bought it. Yes, short of perpetually losing winnable elections, that just might be the most 'Florida Democratic Party' thing to have ever happened.

[S019]

I still think Crist has the better chance, so I'm still supporting him, if Fried gets off of the Resist train that she's be on lately, I might consider supporting her, not until then though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is a low tax state, it doesn't have state income taxes, as Gov Crist as an R didn't raise taxes, Fried wasn't Gov and voters arent assured that she won't raise property or sales taxes, that's why Crist will win primary
Gillium lost as a Socialisic Afro American whom might raise property and sakes taxes

[Tekken_Guy]

Still likely R. She’d do worse than Crist in a general and honestly turns AGCom into a likely R pickup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still likely R. She’d do worse than Crist in a general and honestly turns AGCom into a likely R pickup.

To our R users, Rs are -9 on R friendly QU poll Generic ballot test that pushed Chris Christie in 2009/13 to NJ Gov

We didn't win 33H seats in 2017 we won them in 2018 it's still 500 days not 180 days til Election

Rs can lose 1 OH, FL or IAGov we won them in 2008/12/18

[JMT]

I think she should wait to 2026. Crist is a better candidate for 2022, but neither is likely to win despite DeSantis being a poor governor.

Fried probably figured she was the underdog whether she ran for reelection or for governor, so might as well get more name recognition by running for higher office. Fried is also only 43 years old, so she could definitely run for Governor again in 2026 (or another office) if she loses the primary or general election this time (unlike Crist; this is probably his last chance to be Governor given his age and previous electoral losses).

I'm not sure who I support in this race, I like both Fried and Crist. I'd be happy with either as the nominee. I think it's unlikely to happen, but maybe Crist could choose Fried as his running mate if the primary doesn't get too nasty?

[Astatine]

She’s in.
https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1399791366712999943?s=21

Drinking game for the gubernatorial campaign: Drink 1 shot every time Nikkie Fried says "underestimated" or "something new".

[Dereich]

I think she should wait to 2026. Crist is a better candidate for 2022, but neither is likely to win despite DeSantis being a poor governor.

Fried probably figured she was the underdog whether she ran for reelection or for governor, so might as well get more name recognition by running for higher office. Fried is also only 43 years old, so she could definitely run for Governor again in 2026 (or another office) if she loses the primary or general election this time (unlike Crist; this is probably his last chance to be Governor given his age and previous electoral losses).

I'm not sure who I support in this race, I like both Fried and Crist. I'd be happy with either as the nominee. I think it's unlikely to happen, but maybe Crist could choose Fried as his running mate if the primary doesn't get too nasty?

Florida Lt. Governor is a worthless and dead-end position that is normally only taken by State House members who are about to term out and who cannot find a nearby open Senate seat. Even if it looked like Crist would win it'd be such a step down from Ag. Commissioner that I doubt she'd say yes.

[Skill and Chance]

I think she should wait to 2026. Crist is a better candidate for 2022, but neither is likely to win despite DeSantis being a poor governor.

I think reelection would have been a better bet, but not because of Crist.  Crist is extremely old news at this point and is unlikely to be a strong nominee.  If Fried gets out of the primary, she would have a better chance of winning than Crist IMO, but the bottom line is they both start as massive underdogs.  I just doubt it's worth it for Fried to have perhaps a 20% chance at the nomination and then a 20% chance of winning governor when she could have been 50/50ish for reelection.

[Terlylane]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

[Real Texan Politics]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

It voted for Bernie in the 2016 primaries as well. I know that’s probably a terrible comparison but Fried seems to be more to the left of Crist so I wonder if she’d win Holmes.

[Donerail]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

It voted for Bernie in the 2016 primaries as well. I know that’s probably a terrible comparison but Fried seems to be more to the left of Crist so I wonder if she’d win Holmes.

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.