Florida 2022 Megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

Why would Ivanka want to primary DeSantis considering he and her father are already allies?

[Real Texan Politics]

On this one, it says Nelsonforgovernor.com.

No way of knowing who that is. But I wonder if former Senator Bill Nelson is trying to make a comeback?

https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1359351425998856193

Considering he'll be 80 by then, I'm not so sure about that.

Or maybe he's still at it?

[Real Texan Politics]

She's still teasing it, but may be campaigning heavily with Hogg as well? Definitely won't make her any friends in the panhandle, that's for sure.
https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1383830871451467777?s=20
I also imagine it may help her to choose a Cuban running mate like DeSantis did?

[Real Texan Politics]

Crist vs Fried, that’ll be an interesting primary.

[Real Texan Politics]

Crist will be the governor of Florida in 2023

We'll quote you on that when you're wrong

And y'all may as well quote me on this if I'm wrong...

Or maybe it won't be Crist or DeSantis and it'll end up being Fried for all we know.

[Real Texan Politics]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

Odd cutoff, but here are all the major statewide races over the last decade with a final margin greater than seven points:

• 2012 U.S. Senate (+12 Dem win)
• 2016 U.S. Senate (+7.7 GOP win)

And that's it. The last gubernatorial race with a win of >7 points (7.1!) was in 2006, and won by... Charlie Crist.

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

This. People claiming Florida is still a “swing state” is reminiscent of a few years ago when people thought Virginia was still competitive.

wouldn't be surprised to see Maimi dade go R for both gov and senate

"Maimi dade"

But yea I could see it, or at least for senate if not gov.

[Real Texan Politics]

This sure looks more like a "running for something more than re-election to Congress" ad...

https://twitter.com/val_demings/status/1389523639343661062?s=20

Along with her most recent retweet:

https://twitter.com/DebbieforFL/status/1388093810727653378?s=20

Oh now we're getting a 3 way primary huh?

Crist vs Fried vs Demings?

This'll be fun to watch, especially since it'll be hard to predict which of the 3 will actually get nominated.

Which begs the question; if Demings is going for gov, who's going for senate against Rubio? Especially considering she was the highest profile potential senate candidate?

[Real Texan Politics]

DeSabtis is gonna do poorly against Crist with Afro Americans, he only reaches out to Latinos

Dude you just said he was gonna win, and now you’re back to the “he’s gonna lose because of muh Afro Americans.”

Pick a side.

[Real Texan Politics]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

[Real Texan Politics]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

When it comes to funding though, Fried is an easy winner. Odd how calling DeSantis a fascist dictator makes you a lot of money, but hey, go off I guess. She'll probably get the endorsement of a bunch of democrat organizations anyways, which also includes more money from them.

And as for the debates, Fried I think will be a lot more superior in her performances. She'll try to attack DeSantis where it hurts, while also possibly calling Crist a flip-flopper in the process. Crist could maybe hit her back by talking about her friendship with now disgraced congressman Matt Gaetz, which may or may not hurt Fried in the end even with a decent debate performance.

I'd also add in that I think Fried would do better at energizing her base to vote than Crist. Crist seems kinda boring and just there, while Fried is energetically attacking DeSantis from all angles, plus her calling him a fascist dictator like I mentioned before. I could easily see politicians/celebrities like Stacey Abrams, Harris, Biden, Obama, and (sorry republican parrotheads) Jimmy Buffett doing rallies with Fried.

In the end though, no matter who the democrats nominate, DeSantis will still win by 5-10%.

[Real Texan Politics]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

[Real Texan Politics]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

Very much so, yes.

May also help that Fried is from the Miami area, so that could possibly help her win the big 3 Miami area counties?

[Real Texan Politics]

She’s in.
https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1399791366712999943?s=21

[Real Texan Politics]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

It voted for Bernie in the 2016 primaries as well. I know that’s probably a terrible comparison but Fried seems to be more to the left of Crist so I wonder if she’d win Holmes.

[Real Texan Politics]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

[Real Texan Politics]

Ron DeSantis just said he isn't doing mask mandatory again, he does not believe in Science

And that changes the course of the race how? Republicans aren't gonna vote for Crist or Fried due to this issue alone.

[Real Texan Politics]

This seems to all but announce a candidacy…

https://twitter.com/annette_taddeo/status/1435587532738252801?s=21

Won't be the nominee, actually may end up splitting the #resist vote with Fried, making Crist more likely to be the nominee.

Edit: Now that I think about it she probably won't do much since Fried already has a big following, so I doubt Taddeo entering the race will affect Fried that much.

[Real Texan Politics]

I honestly think DeSantis will win Miami-Dade County. This race is just a formality. LOL.

It won't surprise me if he does, though Rubio is certainly more likely to win it.

[Real Texan Politics]

An Astounding Statistic

FL Party Registration just before the 2008 Presidential Election

REPUBLICAN  4,100,109

DEMOCRAT  4,791,642

MINOR PARTIES  326,026

NO PARTY AFFILIATION  2,132,226

Difference: D+691,533

FL Party Registration as of October 31st 2021

REPUBLICAN  5,118,357

DEMOCRAT  5,114,039

MINOR PARTIES  252,492

NO PARTY AFFILIATION  3,814,567

Difference: R+4,318

DeSantis is winning re-election next year, and Florida will go republican in 2024 barring some extreme scenario that has little chance of occurring.

[Real Texan Politics]

Whatever you think about DeSantis, you have to admit his opponents are cringe

AF!

DeSantis winning is almost guaranteed. Now I just want to see a 2022 Florida double digit R win map.

I'm curious as well. If the margin ends up that big, I wonder if it's because more because of reversion in areas like Duval or further massive swings in south FL, particularly Miami-Dade. There's likely to be a touch of both happening here, but I'm sure one will be much more pronounced than the other.

Both are very likely to occur, but I would imagine more so the latter rather than the former.

[Real Texan Politics]

Latinx

They're not winning with that messaging either so...

[Real Texan Politics]

Latinx

They're not winning with that messaging either so...

You never know what wave might develop at Labor Day 2022/ it wasn't a D plus 9 election until October 2018/ and Obama in 2008/12 was supposed to win 300 EC votes FL was the last state to flirt with McCain and Romney in 2008/12 this is the same Biden that was on the ballot in 2008/12 as VEEP


Biden only lost FL by 51/47 and DeSantis isn't winning by 10, neither is Abbott winning by 10/15 it was six pts in 2020 too 52/46 and Beto only lost TX by 2 in 2018

My guy I was talking about the latinx stuff, you ain't gotta bring up all that

[Real Texan Politics]

Latinx

They're not winning with that messaging either so...

You never know what wave might develop at Labor Day 2022/ it wasn't a D plus 9 election until October 2018/ and Obama in 2008/12 was supposed to win 300 EC votes FL was the last state to flirt with McCain and Romney in 2008/12 this is the same Biden that was on the ballot in 2008/12 as VEEP


Biden only lost FL by 51/47 and DeSantis isn't winning by 10, neither is Abbott winning by 10/15 it was six pts in 2020 too 52/46 and Beto only lost TX by 2 in 2018

My guy I was talking about the latinx stuff, you ain't gotta bring up all that

You're talking to olawakandi. What did you expect?

Oh I know, I know.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/NikkiFried/status/1472266564212871172

If she’s the nominee, I can’t wait to see the margins in north Florida. Those are gonna be embarrassing and a new low even for her.

[Real Texan Politics]

Not gonna lie, I actually hope Nikki Fried gets the nomination (even though I don't think she will). It'll make both the debates and the race as a whole even more entertaining and fun to watch.