Florida 2022 Megathread

[brucejoel99]

From what I've heard through the Nelson grapevine (that is, based on what he literally told a friend of mine face-to-face at a pre-COVID UF event), he couldn't be more done.

[brucejoel99]

Looks like Fried's in for Governor, so there goes our last remaining statewide Democrat:

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1361471858747523076

[brucejoel99]

Charlie's running

[brucejoel99]

There will inevitably be a number of Democratic primary voters concerned about her past as a law enforcement officer too.

[brucejoel99]

I wonder whether Nikki Fried sits this one out now? She could be viable in 2026, regardless of who's president.

She probably should, but she definitely won't.

[brucejoel99]

I'm not convinced that any Democrat will be able to beat DeSantis next year, so I'm not investing much hope in this race to begin with, & I honestly have no idea who I'm even gonna end up supporting in a Fried/Crist/Demings/Eskamani primary.

[brucejoel99]

it's_happening.gif

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1392218038578016258

[brucejoel99]

Fried looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Demings looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Crist looks into running: "He's ruining (Whatevers left of) his political career"

Let's just cut the middle-man and say no FL Dem will win next year and its a foolish exercise determining who stands a "better chance". As far as I'm concerned, the best that Dems can hope for here is 47% and/or a 3 point loss.

Yeah, this is kinda where I've landed at this point. As I said before somewhere in the 9 pages of this thread, it's highly unlikely that any of these Democratic candidates would be able to beat DeSantis next year anyway, so it just doesn't feel worth it to invest much - if any - hope into this race &/or any of its contenders. All that being said, though, I think I've all-but-reached the conclusion that I'll end up voting for Fried when the primary comes around. For starters, I wouldn't be so quick to argue as some have that her winning in 2018 was a fluke, unless that entails DeSantis' & Scott's wins having also been flukes: she overperformed the top-of-the-ticket all across the state (at the same time that Sean Shaw for AG & Jeremy Ring for CFO were badly underperforming) & really managed to stand out in a way that you usually just don't see in a Democratic candidate for a down-ballot row office like Ag. Commissioner; she also had an organizing field staff that was independent of the chronically incompetent FDP (though they obviously worked together when necessary), & she's an SFL candidate in a time that Democratic statewide races have mostly been falling short here in recent years. Basically, I think she's good enough at message discipline, coalition-building, & campaign resource-allocation that even though we're very likely to lose anyway, that doesn't mean we shouldn't still try to at least give it our best shot. Ya never know, after all.

All of which is to say that while both Crist & Demings are basically guaranteed to lose a general, I think Fried has a chance, albeit not much of a better one. In any event, knowing this state, the FDP will find a way to manage to blow it in the end.

[brucejoel99]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

[brucejoel99]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

Fried would get a lot of the out-of-state celebrity and #resist activist endorsements, while Crist may get more of the in-state endorsements. Maybe he does better in the suburbs of Tampa while Fried may do better in the woke suburbs of Miami and maybe Orlando?

[Citation needed re: existence]

Wouldn’t Broward County count or are they just more establishment dem?

Very much so, yes.

[brucejoel99]

Undecided 'til Taddeo confirms whether or not she's running too. If she doesn't, then I'll be for Fried, but if she does, then I'll have a real decision to make over these next 14 months.

In other news, the Florida Democratic Party forgot to renew the floridadems.com domain & the GOP bought it. Yes, short of perpetually losing winnable elections, that just might be the most 'Florida Democratic Party' thing to have ever happened.

[brucejoel99]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

She can run in both races?

Technically but it's a long-shot: only in the event that she were to lose the Democratic gubernatorial primary, the winner of the simultaneously-held Democratic AgCommish primary were to withdraw, & the FDP's executive committee were to name Fried to fill the resultant vacancy in the Democratic AgCommish nomination would she be able to have run for both offices.

[brucejoel99]

Undecided 'til Taddeo confirms whether or not she's running too. If she doesn't, then I'll be for Fried, but if she does, then I'll have a real decision to make over these next 14 months.

In other news, the Florida Democratic Party forgot to renew the floridadems.com domain & the GOP bought it. Yes, short of perpetually losing winnable elections, that just might be the most 'Florida Democratic Party' thing to have ever happened.

That wasn't their domain to begin with I think- it was always Floridadems.org(https://www.floridadems.org/) and when you search the Florida Democratic Party via Google it is that that comes up, not this GOP thing.

Yes, floridadems.org is & has always been the main domain, & it's the one which they'd actually make sure to never lose their control over. However, 'til recently, floridadems.com would just redirect to floridadems.org, 'til the FDP lost their ownership of the .com, of course, at which point it stopped redirecting because the FLGOP had already scooped it up.

[brucejoel99]

So long as Taddeo doesn't jump into the race, that poll locks me in for Fried, given my previously explained rationale:

Say what you want about Fried's "resistance" style, but her winning in 2018 wasn't really all that much of a fluke, unless DeSantis' & Scott's wins were flukes too: she overperformed the top-of-the-ticket all across the state at the same time that Sean Shaw for AG & Jeremy Ring for CFO were badly underperforming & she really stood out in a way that you just don't see in a Democratic candidate for a down-ballot row office like Ag. Commish. She also had an organizing field staff independent of the chronically incompetent FDP - although they obviously worked together when necessary - & she's an SFL candidate in a time that Democratic statewide races have recently been falling short here. I think that she's ultimately good enough at message-discipline, coalition-building, & campaign resource-allocation that she manages to edge Crist out for the title of "stronger GE candidate," even though - of course - nobody's beating DeSantis next year in any event.

[brucejoel99]

Yay, now I get to spend the next 10 months trying to determine who's likely to lose to DeSantis by the smallest margin (because let's face it, there's just no way that DeSantis isn't getting re-elected next year, as inherently sad as that being the case is). I continue to strongly suspect that the answer to that question is whichever one of Taddeo & Fried can prove to be more competent when it comes to fundraising & competently deploying campaign resources, with a tie going to Taddeo solely because of Dade. FWIW, I've heard only glowingly positive things about Taddeo's organization & on-the-ground field-ops in both her 2017 special election & 2017 re-elect, although those obviously aren't the same things as a state-level race, in which Fried has had direct experience putting together an effective campaign organization. To be sure, this'll be an interesting primary to watch. My only wish is that Crist weren't running because his doing so likely means that none of what I just said will actually end up mattering in the end, given that he'll likely just end up winning the primary anyway, but at least now, I'll maybe, just maybe be able to cast my vote in the primary with a smile on my face while I do.

[brucejoel99]

Latinx

They're not winning with that messaging either so...

You never know what wave might develop at Labor Day 2022/ it wasn't a D plus 9 election until October 2018/ and Obama in 2008/12 was supposed to win 300 EC votes FL was the last state to flirt with McCain and Romney in 2008/12 this is the same Biden that was on the ballot in 2008/12 as VEEP


Biden only lost FL by 51/47 and DeSantis isn't winning by 10, neither is Abbott winning by 10/15 it was six pts in 2020 too 52/46 and Beto only lost TX by 2 in 2018

My guy I was talking about the latinx stuff, you ain't gotta bring up all that

You're talking to olawakandi. What did you expect?

[brucejoel99]

Salazar is as moderate as Ross-Lehtinen. She voted for the COVID Relief Bill at the beginning of 2021, she voted for the Jan 6th Commission,

Every single House Republican voted against the American Rescue Plan, lol. Why lie about something so easily disprovable?

she voted for the Infrastructure Bill.

Salazar wasn't 1 of the 13 House Republicans who voted for infrastructure. Why lie about something so easily disprovable?

Now compare Salazars Record as a Congresswoman with the Record Annette Taddeo had as State Legislator in FL before joining the 2014 Crist Democratic Ticket. It was ultra progressive liberal as you can get.

Taddeo first joined the FL State Legislature when she won the State Senate seat in 2017 that she continues to hold today. 2017, you'll notice, was 3 years after she was Crist's running mate in 2014. So, why lie about the existence of something that's literally so easily disprovable? How can something that doesn't exist be as "ultra progressive liberal as you can get"?

Good Luck beating Maria-Elvira with that!

Correct; it'd literally be impossible for Taddeo to base her campaign against Salazar on a record that literally doesn't exist.

Taddeo is a Socialist - Period!

Ahem:

The Democrats will not have both Legislative Chambers in Washington come January 2nd 2023. It will likely be like the Obama Years with Democrats potentially having the Senate and Republicans controlling the House by a bigger margin compared what Democrats have now.

Time to reel in President Biden & his Socialistic Cohorts Kamala, Nancy and Schumer.

If you think Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Nancy Pelosi, & Chuck Schumer are "socialists," then you don't understand what that word means.

[brucejoel99]

Florida has a $20 billion budget surplus right now under DeSantis, highest in recent history.

Oh, & this is wrong too. What FL currently has is a $20B budget reserve for a rainy day, thanks to portions of revenue surpluses set aside over time; not a $20B budget surplus going into FY22-23. The actual general revenue surplus which the 2022 legislative session contended with was $11.3B, a record figure, but only a record thanks to the huge influx of federal COVID-relief payments, without which, the surplus would've amounted to only $7B. By comparison, the previous reserve figure was just $9.5B, so while he indeed more than doubled it, he was only able to thanks to the impact of federal stimulus dollars; hell, had he left total spending static compared to the previous year, he could've even added an extra $8.3B to the reserve, enough to wipe out our entire state debt of $24.3B & still have $4B left over, but why would he do that when he could just dedicate those free federal funds to the state's battles in the forever-ongoing culture war instead?

Compare all of that to, as President Johnson mentioned, CA, which had an actual budget surplus of $97B for FY21, & either DeSantis doesn't know what the difference between a budget surplus & our budget reserves (i.e., our rainy-day fund) is, or he's banking on nobody really knowing/caring about the difference when they're too busy mindlessly praising him anyway.

[brucejoel99]

Have been in Florida for work (and fun!) the past week and have to say that Nikki Fried's ads hitting Crist on abortion are pulling absolutely zero punches. Crist has one decent response ad up with female state legislators defending him but the rest of his responses (there are a lot) feature him giving milquetoast self-testimonial to the camera. I haven't seen numbers in the gubernatorial primary but I have to imagine given the sheer number of response ads Crist has put up on this issue/the climate we've seen in other Democratic primaries that these attacks are having an effect. Would not be surprised to see a last-minute Fried surge here, not unlike Gillum's last-minute surge in 2018.

https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1561688385126891521 https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1561689402040107009

[brucejoel99]

Polls have closed and we can declare Crist has won. No need to wait on the panhandle in this contest.

I know that I've already seen enough:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1562213836937125888

[brucejoel99]

Florida is actually one State where the Abortion will help Republicans

You can't actually believe this.

There is a reason Trump bumped up his Percentage with Hispanic Catholics. In most of the other States it will hurt Republicans but in Florida it will be more even.

In 2018, 58% of Floridians supported abortion rights.

And in 2012, 55.1% of Floridians rejected Amndt. 6, which would've added explicit language to the state constitution providing that it couldn't be interpreted by the courts as protecting abortion rights broader than those protected by the federal Constitution, thereby conveying our reaffirmed support for the 1989 state Supreme Court decision upholding the pre-viability right to an abortion in FL as protected by the state constitution's explicit right to privacy that we'd added to it in 1980.

Florida really can't have historically been more clear on this.

[brucejoel99]

Gwendolyn is the only person not named Anna Eskamani who I respect in the FDP anymore but I swear to christ, if he own-goals by not picking DMP 🙃😤

[brucejoel99]

Charlie Crist appears to believe that the year is 2000.

Eh, some people said similar things about Biden.

And Biden didn't name a fellow white centrist for VP like 2000 &, in doing so, ignore a crucial constituency for victory, but if Crist names Gwen to be his running mate over DMP or Amy Mercado (or DLC for Dade), then yikes, as much as I love her.

[brucejoel99]

Oh thank god, it's presumably somebody from down here:

https://twitter.com/newsguygreg/status/1563194840623374337
We do already have reason to doubt the likelihood of a weekday/non-Saturday announcement, though:

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1562916705592299522

[brucejoel99]

A Latina from Miami who can wreck Ron on education? Consider me intrigued:

https://twitter.com/defede/status/1563225550554284037