Florida 2022 Megathread

[Donerail]

Influential Broward Democrat sees Charlie Crist and Val Demings as the way for party to win 2022 governor and Senate races

Well, they're both horrible candidates. Granted, it's likely that no Democrat can win these races, but it's yet another exhibit in FL-DEM incompetence.

Who would you recruit? Enlighten us, o wise one.

[Donerail]

Charlie's running

[Donerail]

Charlie's running

Is the Florida governor mansion like just a really nice place to live ? Why does the man so want to be governor again ?

A 10% chance at winning a Gubernatorial race, is better than a 5% chance at winning a house seat after redistricting.

This is not the reason.

[Donerail]

Charlie's running

Is the Florida governor mansion like just a really nice place to live ? Why does the man so want to be governor again ?

A 10% chance at winning a Gubernatorial race, is better than a 5% chance at winning a house seat after redistricting.

This is not the reason.

If he really wanted to run,why not run in 2018 for an open seat in what was shaping to be a favorable midterm?

Fresh off losing in '10 and '14? Plus it'd basically require him to start planning out a run the moment he got elected to Congress in '16. No harm in waiting a cycle, building relationships (particularly important if you are a new arrival to the party) and getting a little further from the sting of consecutive statewide defeats.

[Donerail]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

Odd cutoff, but here are all the major statewide races over the last decade with a final margin greater than seven points:

• 2012 U.S. Senate (+12 Dem win)
• 2016 U.S. Senate (+7.7 GOP win)

And that's it. The last gubernatorial race with a win of >7 points (7.1!) was in 2006, and won by... Charlie Crist.

[Donerail]

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

"the 2022"? "Maimi dade"? Literacy? Very silly to assume that the last election is the only one that ever matters & trends will continue out into time forever.

[Donerail]

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

"the 2022"? "Maimi dade"? Literacy? Very silly to assume that the last election is the only one that ever matters & trends will continue out into time forever.

sorry about the typos but its more silly to straight out ignore the massive shifts from 2016 to 2020.
Maimi-Dade's shifts were among the most extreme in the nation. you're telling people to ignore that??
futhermore, 2022 will be a GOP year and the Maimi dade will mostly shift more atlas blue from 2020.

We saw a 6-point shift toward the Democrats in Dade from 2012 to 2016. Anyone who assumed that trend would not only hold but intensify in 2020 ended up looking very stupid when it snapped back hard. I am looking out for you!

[Donerail]

@Canis,
If Demings runs as well Florida Democrats will have two Candidates (Crist & Demings) from the same Region running for Governor. This D-Primary will be a "Hot Mess".

false

[Donerail]

@Canis,
If Demings runs as well Florida Democrats will have two Candidates (Crist & Demings) from the same Region running for Governor. This D-Primary will be a "Hot Mess".

false

It's not false. Demings is from the Orlando Area while Crist is from St. Pete/Tampa. Both in the middle of the State...the I4 Corridor. I dunno where Fried is from but if Crist/Demings split the Vote in the middle of the State that usually ends up either favouring someone from the Southeast FL or from the North (like Gillum).

"The I-4 corridor" is a creation of political journalists, who saw a couple electorally important regions and decided to lump them together b/c there's a common interstate. In truth, no one from Tampa was going to vote for Demings b/c she was the police chief on the other side of the state. They're two very different cities with different demographics & different political cultures.

Fried, fwiw, is from Fort Lauderdale, though it's not clear how much that matters — she was a very low-profile lobbyist before running for Ag Commissioner. Contrast that with someone like Demings, who has been a high-profile figure in Orlando & Orange County politics for over a decade, or Charlie, who's been running for stuff in St. Pete for thirty years now — just not the same type of connections to the local political scene.

[Donerail]

IMHO Val Demings and John Morgan are the two best candidates to take on DeSantis.

Morgan has said he's getting out of the game — I know he thought seriously about it in '18 and earlier (he flew an acquaintance out to interview as his campaign manager), but the most recent thing he's said is that Amendment 2 was his last fight.

But yes, I've never really understood the appeal of Nikki Fried. Her 2018 win was a bit of a fluke — she campaigned on marijuana, which was enough to get her the extra fraction of a percentage point over Nelson & Gillum, but I don't see how that translates to winning statewide office when she's at the top of the ticket. Think it's telling that her ad mentions that she won election but doesn't mention anything she did after that.

[Donerail]

Many, many things have been said about Charlie Crist over his 30+ years in politics but I don't think anyone has ever describing him as "kinda boring."

[Donerail]

Expected. Going to donate another $50 to Crist.

[Donerail]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

It voted for Bernie in the 2016 primaries as well. I know that’s probably a terrible comparison but Fried seems to be more to the left of Crist so I wonder if she’d win Holmes.

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.

[Donerail]

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.

So the same goes for Alan Grayson in 2016 as well?

I suspect Gwen Graham’s support was much more authentic though.

Holmes, like many Panhandle counties, is home to a substantial number of Democrats who are registered Democrat solely to vote in local primaries. They turn out on election day to vote for Sheriff, and there's also a couple races on the top of the ballot that they don't really care about because they'll be voting for the Republican in November, so they take the opportunity to vote against the Democratic frontrunner. This was true for Alan Grayson (though they also gave nearly 30% of the vote to Pam Keith) and Nan Rich and Bernie Sanders (with a respectable share to O’Malley), as well as Brian Moore of the Socialist Party USA over Alex Sink in 2012, and nutritionist Glenn Burkett over Bill Nelson in 2012. It's just a protest vote.

I think it's an open question how long we'll continue to see this pattern in the Panhandle, as registered Democrats there move, die or re-register; in Holmes in particular it looks like all of their county electeds have finally flipped.

[Donerail]

Rep. Al Lawson has endorsed Crist, who continues to lead the fundraising race. Crist is getting a lot of endorsements among black politicians in particular; could be an area of strength for him in the primary.

[Donerail]

Red avi morons need to stop hyperventilating over bullsh**t numbers posted by the "Florida Capital Star," which is a right-wing propaganda outlet. That twitter user (he's clearly not a reporter) is pulling DeSantis's PAC numbers and comparing them to what the Dems raised solely for their campaign accounts, excluding what they raised for their committees. Not sure if that is meant to be intentionally deceptive or if Mr. Holcomb simply doesn't realize that state candidates have both committees and campaign accounts, but either way, it does not give me any great confidence in the truthiness of his tweets.

The real fundraising figures for the month: Crist raised slightly over $500k, not $270k; Fried raised $328k, not $130k (that figure that doesn't include a $50k check she got in the first week of August). So, at a minimum, he's understating the numbers by half.

[Donerail]

Also — PPP is dropping a statewide poll today or tomorrow. Based on what I've heard about the figures, expect to see a lot of COPE from certain individuals on this web site.

[Donerail]

Also — PPP is dropping a statewide poll today or tomorrow. Based on what I've heard about the figures, expect to see a lot of COPE from certain individuals on this web site.

Here's the first part of it:
https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1425858061672108032
(note that it's half landline/half text w/ a sample size of 274)

Given that this is being promoted by Fried's camp and Fried was telling the press yesterday that she had seen a poll showing DeSantis dropping significantly, have to imagine they also asked the head-to-head — not sure what they're waiting on.

[Donerail]

I personally don't care if Fried is no longer Agriculture Commissioner or not, she'd probably lose that election anyway, so she has much less to lose, but those things don't affect the Democrats' presence in the federal government.

If you don't care about any of this why do you post in this thread?

[Donerail]

In local news: Duval is the eighth school district to join the rebel alliance, along with Sarasota, Leon, Alachua, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade. The eight counties represent 44% of all public school students in Florida. Orange County Public Schools is expected to approve on a mask mandate at the school board meeting today; Pinellas also meets today but the outcome seems less certain. Eyes on Osceola/Seminole/St. Lucie, which all have a sort of mandate, but allow parents to opt-out without a doctor’s note. DeSantis has pledged to #defund schools that require a medical opt-out, which, once Orange moves today, will mean defunding the public schools attended by a majority of Florida's children.

Meanwhile, the Commonwealth of the Bahamas will require all visiting cruise ship passengers to present proof of vaccination. The requirement extends to private islands owned by cruise lines like Disney, Norwegian and Royal Caribbean. As a result of its proximity to Florida, a majority of cruises stop in the Bahamas. DeSantis has attempted to forbid cruise lines from requiring vaccinations, but following the Bahamas move and a loss in federal court, a majority of cruise lines are now requiring vaccination. (Including Disney, the people who really run this state.) L after L for Ronnie this week.

[Donerail]

St. Pete mayoral election is today! Former County Commissioner Ken Welch (D), who would be the city’s first black mayor, almost certainly has first place locked up. Welch is the favorite of the local Dem establishment, with endorsements from outgoing Mayor Rick Kriseman and former Gov. Charlie Crist (as well as most of the city council), and (if you like) you could view his likely victory as an affirmation of Kriseman’s tenure in office. It’s unlikely he exceeds the 50% necessary to avoid a November runoff, but not impossible.

The race for second is a bit more competitive, but councilman Robert Blackmon (R) looks like a strong favorite ahead of Councilwoman Darden Rice (D). Both have faced their own scandals during the campaign — Rice a mailer, widely seen as dishonest, that attempted to tie Welch to Donald Trump by way of campaign contributions and endorsements from figures like Sheriff Bob Gualtieri (R), Blackmon for evicting tenants from properties he owns in south St. Pete. Rice actually has the fundraising edge, but Blackmon probably has an advantage because of his ability to consolidate Republican voters. Most polls have both candidates trailing Welch by double digits in the runoff.

Turnout has been light so far. The final poll, from St. Pete Polls, has it Welch 37%, Blackmon 27%, Rice 17%. State Rep. Wengay Newton (D), a conservative Democrat who represents the city’s south side in the legislature, trails with 6%; restauranteur Pete Boland (R) takes 5%.

[Donerail]

did Romney +9 pan out for you or

[Donerail]

Rubio's human suit is more realistic and lifelike

[Donerail]

Two South Florida candidates in the race sounds great — Taddeo in particular is not a statewide name and doesn't have much of a base outside of the region. Everything keeps coming up CHARLIE

[Donerail]

My only wish is that Crist weren't running because his doing so likely means that none of what I just said will actually end up mattering in the end, given that he'll likely just end up winning the primary anyway, but at least now, I'll maybe, just maybe be able to cast my vote in the primary with a smile on my face while I do.

I will be smiling as I cast my primary vote for CHARLIE