Florida 2022 Megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

Odd cutoff, but here are all the major statewide races over the last decade with a final margin greater than seven points:

• 2012 U.S. Senate (+12 Dem win)
• 2016 U.S. Senate (+7.7 GOP win)

And that's it. The last gubernatorial race with a win of >7 points (7.1!) was in 2006, and won by... Charlie Crist.

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

This. People claiming Florida is still a “swing state” is reminiscent of a few years ago when people thought Virginia was still competitive.

wouldn't be surprised to see Maimi dade go R for both gov and senate

"Maimi dade"

But yea I could see it, or at least for senate if not gov.

[Lognog]

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

"the 2022"? "Maimi dade"? Literacy? Very silly to assume that the last election is the only one that ever matters & trends will continue out into time forever.

sorry about the typos but its more silly to straight out ignore the massive shifts from 2016 to 2020.
Maimi-Dade's shifts were among the most extreme in the nation. you're telling people to ignore that??
futhermore, 2022 will be a GOP year and the Maimi dade will mostly shift more atlas blue from 2020.

We saw a 6-point shift toward the Democrats in Dade from 2012 to 2016. Anyone who assumed that trend would not only hold but intensify in 2020 ended up looking very stupid when it snapped back hard. I am looking out for you!

Bookmarking this now. Let's see what happens

[Green Line]

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

"the 2022"? "Maimi dade"? Literacy? Very silly to assume that the last election is the only one that ever matters & trends will continue out into time forever.

Thats, like, the main requirement to being an Atlas poster!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis is gonna win, the EC map is gonna be 278 or 291 in 2024 excluding GA and D's matches the Prez Approvals and a 51/49 Approvals doesn't encompass the South

It encompass WI, PA, MU

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/charliecrist/status/1389554818503614464?s=21

[ajc0918]

As someone who has followed Crist's political career for a while now, that's honestly one of his better campaign videos.

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/charliecrist/status/1389554818503614464?s=21

I dunno, I just don't like Charlie Crist. If he can win, great. But he's the epitome of an opportunist and a career politician. Nikki Fried seems like a better option all around.

[Lambsbread]

This sure looks more like a "running for something more than re-election to Congress" ad...

https://twitter.com/val_demings/status/1389523639343661062?s=20

Along with her most recent retweet:

https://twitter.com/DebbieforFL/status/1388093810727653378?s=20

[Numberbit]

Crist is back? LOL

2014 all over again.

Get ready for this map

[Real Texan Politics]

This sure looks more like a "running for something more than re-election to Congress" ad...

https://twitter.com/val_demings/status/1389523639343661062?s=20

Along with her most recent retweet:

https://twitter.com/DebbieforFL/status/1388093810727653378?s=20

Oh now we're getting a 3 way primary huh?

Crist vs Fried vs Demings?

This'll be fun to watch, especially since it'll be hard to predict which of the 3 will actually get nominated.

Which begs the question; if Demings is going for gov, who's going for senate against Rubio? Especially considering she was the highest profile potential senate candidate?

[Sir Mohamed]

I dunno why Crist, Demings and Fried all are lining up for defeat in the GE? Even if Demings runs against Rubio, I don't see her winning either. She may come unexpectedly close with law enforcement background. I think that could help her in this state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But, Athasia Pittsburgh have Tim Ryan, BEASLEY and Stephanie Murphy winning, NOT

[S019]

I really liked Crist's ad good combination of touting his record and attacking DeSantis. Also the little bit of Spanish in it, indicates to me that he's committed to Hispanic outreach. Endorsed for now.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/charliecrist/status/1389554818503614464?s=21

He will lose by high single digits. Mark my words

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/charliecrist/status/1389554818503614464?s=21

He will lose by high single digits. Mark my words

Impossible. No FL Dem can get the race within double digits.

[JMT]

This sure looks more like a "running for something more than re-election to Congress" ad...

https://twitter.com/val_demings/status/1389523639343661062?s=20

Along with her most recent retweet:

https://twitter.com/DebbieforFL/status/1388093810727653378?s=20

Oh now we're getting a 3 way primary huh?

Crist vs Fried vs Demings?

This'll be fun to watch, especially since it'll be hard to predict which of the 3 will actually get nominated.

Which begs the question; if Demings is going for gov, who's going for senate against Rubio? Especially considering she was the highest profile potential senate candidate?

I think Stephanie Murphy will likely run and be nominated for Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio is safe, even if CRIST wins, Stephanie Murphy is gonna lose, be it we have had zero polls from any states unless a Quinnepiac University polls shows DeSantis losing its Safe R.

In Prez midterms their party performance is based on Prez Approvals, in Trump midterm it didn't matter and Biden is only at 51/49 Approvals enough to carry WI, PA and MI

Not, FL, OH and IA.

But, we will find out soon how CRIST will do

THE BEST STATE IN A QUINNEPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL WILL BE PA, SHAPIRO AND FETTERMAN ARE ABOVE 50 PERCENT And NH Hassan is at 50 now and Molly Kelly is looking to run for Gov and we can have 3 D famales

QU PROBABLY HAS DEWINE AT 60 HE WILL WIN, Whaley will lose

[President Johnson]

Doubt Crist has actually a shot, but he may do a better than expected job with Latino outreach. Endorsed anyway.

[brucejoel99]

I'm not convinced that any Democrat will be able to beat DeSantis next year, so I'm not investing much hope in this race to begin with, & I honestly have no idea who I'm even gonna end up supporting in a Fried/Crist/Demings/Eskamani primary.

[Frenchrepublican]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

I doubt that it will be a double digits wins for DeSantis as FL is too polarised for that

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

[Frenchrepublican]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

Florida governor races are always close, and DeSantis is too closely tied with Trump. That isn't a bad thing per se, but Democrats will be enthused to show up for him and Fried would be manage to capture that anti-Trump/DeSantis hate at the polls.

[Skill and Chance]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

He either wins by 5-10 in the status quo or has a major scandal (think Christie after he got presidential level attention) and loses.  

[Frenchrepublican]

Crist will get within 4 points of DeSantis. Fried probably cuts that down to the 2-3% range, but I don't see Dems flipping Florida in a Biden midterm.

DeSantis has a +20 approval rate so I doubt that he is going to underperform Trump, I guess that polarisation will make the race a bit closer than his approval rate would suggest but any democrat is probably going to lose by at least 6/7 points, and likely more. DeSantis could even win Miami Dade.

Florida governor races are always close, and DeSantis is too closely tied with Trump.That isn't a bad thing per se, but Democrats will be enthused to show up for him and Fried would be manage to capture that anti-Trump/DeSantis hate at the polls.

This is a very lazy argument...

Indiana 2012/2016 gov races were close so the 2020 must be close too...

The party which holds the power in DC can not win the VA gov race so Cucinelli is going to prevail in VA...

You see, the problem with these patterns is that they are true until they break, but they are not some sort of eternal rules

Also judging from polls you have a good number of voters who voted Biden and who approve DeSantis, I'm not sure how running on " a anti DeSantis hate message " is going to work with them, the anti DeSantis/Trump base is simply far too small to win a statewide race in FL