Florida 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis with Trump at Maralargo is gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good, we don't need Ron DeSantis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I enthusiastically support Crist, Crist wants be Gov not Rep, he only ran for House to run for Gov again, not stay in House


If DeSantis loses, he won't be Prez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tim Ryan and Crist are going for higher office, due to fact they might not survive Reapportionment anyways.


But, until we know the Reapportionment maps, the House is still a Tossup for D's and we can win Latino districts even in the South

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio and DeSantis are safe since Rubio eventhough he blocks the Filibuster, he wants PR Statehood

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CRIST is gonna run and it's all up to him now, but Graham can resign in 2024/ and run against Rick Scott, this in no way forbids her from running for office again as Janet Reno ran for Gov after she was AG

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have hopes that D's will flip AZ, TX or FL, GA probably stays R, Abrams haven't made a decision on challenge to Kemp

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have hopes that D's will flip AZ, TX or FL, GA probably stays R, Abrams haven't made a decision on challenge to Kemp

LOL, Democrats ain't going to win TX, not in a Midterm Year anyway. Beto isn't running and Abbott isn't as polarizing as Ted Cruz was in 2018.

Mason-Dixon has DeSantis up Double-Digits on Fried, Crist!

You can put it on your Prediction map when Dave put out the maps, but I will make my usual D favorite maps, K

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Janet Reno went from AG to running for FL Gov, you can retire from Cabinet and run for another office, Cabinet usually last one term


Val Deming's wants to run for Gov or Senator bit it's an uphill battle against Rubio and DeSantis and Rick Scott is far more Vulnerable than both of them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Charlie's running

Ugh. The dude is opening up a potentially competitive House seat for suicidal run 4 gov?

This is wave insurance state, users don't get that Covid and the Economy can be a boom next yr

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist's performance in 2014 was actually very respectable given the environment & the fact that every other statewide race was a double-digit GOP blowout. I wouldn’t expect him to win, but also wouldn’t underestimate him or completely write him off. Republicans are very much favored, but this state certainly isn’t less competitive than IA or OH (either for Senate or Governor).

One key factor, though, was that Scott was very unpopular in 2014, and that’s not true of DeSantis at the moment. I agree that the FL races will be closer than the ones in IA/OH, and I don’t buy that DeSantis and Rubio will get authoritarian NUT maps, but I don’t think Crist, whose performances since 2016 haven’t been that impressive, would have much of a chance or would be a particularly strong candidate, especially given that he’d be running as a former Governor who already lost a gubernatorial race.

The problem for DeSantis is that he hasn't brought any new Afro Americans into the fold since his narrow loss to Gillium,Afro Americans make up 15% of the vote and of course it's a VBM vote not same day voting

If CRIST wins, it will split it votes between Rubio and CRIST, just like OH in 2018 split it's votes between DeWine and Brown

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Safe R until QU polls this race, I don't trust polling until we have that poll

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

QU polls FL, and we need to wait for PPP or a QU poll to tell us about FL it's Lean R until such poll comes out since it had Biden at 48%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's Safe R until QU polls this race, I don't trust polling until we have that poll

Really? Maybe if the Democrat is in excess of leading DeSantis by twenty points or so, maybe it'll equal a <1% victory for that Democrat.

I haven't made my Predictions yet, whenever the new maps come out, none of the Moderators will tell us when they are coming out, but FL Senate just passed voter suppression laws. Rubio will win no matter what

Grayson or Stephanie Murphy or Val Deming's are too Socialisic to win, CRIST can make it competetive, split vote

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She wasn't gonna run against Rubio, Rubio is safe and last poll had DeSantis tied with Fried

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not just Trump country, he is running on the same ballot as Cuban Rubio and FL has a Cuban Embargo, but if CRIST runs he will be competetive, not Val Demings just like Beasley won't win, but we haven't had any polls from Quinnepiac University

Rs don't have a monopoly on IA, FL, NC, OH we won them before and will win them again, one of them will fall this election cycle when Ds lead on Generic ballot 47/42 just like Sherrod Brown won in 2018

Just like GA was an R state since 1992 and it finally fell. Don't forget Kellys won in AZ and KS red turf

Biden is at 53 percent approvals, danger zone for Rs in red turf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's lead on Generic ballot 47/42 that's more than ENOUGH to win OH, FL, IA or NC, Obama lost 201o midterms as you recall

2010 isnot a good example

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CRIST is the only one that can win the Gov race, he can take Cubans away from DeSantis, Deming's can't

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CRIST is the only one that can win the Gov race, he can take Cubans away from DeSantis, Deming's can't

The only thing that can take away Cubans from DeSantis is a strong Democratic party organization, voter outreach in both Spanish and English, and disinformation combating campaigns built up and consistently done several years in advance of the election (not to mention the price of this, if money is spent efficiently, probably would cost less than the biennial three-week-long ad blitz Democrats do in the state). Crist would fail if he can't do all of those things and more very, very well.

Also, Crist would probably do worse than Fried or John Morgan but that's just IMO. Does he have some personal connections to the Cuban community?

You're not gonna convince me that's why we have Predictions, we won Red state AZ and KS, out it on your Prediction

I go by polls except for NH, last poll had it a tie, just like PPP had OH Senate race a tie
..
Change Research has Hassan in much better shape against Sununu than partisan polls

Users aren't gonna convince D's that it's suddenly an R friendly Environment and they trail on Generic ballot 47/42

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ugh. Dude isn't going to win.

Y'all are welcome to bump my posts in Nov. 2022 if he wins against DeSantis and call me an idiot.

The last Fzl poll had it tied, it's not 291 nevermore it's the 413 FREIWAL

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unless a Quinnepiac University poll shows D's winning FL Unfortunately, DeSantis is safe and Biden has the exact Approvals he had on Election night meaning he loses FL by 3 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state just passed Voter suppression laws

But, usually PPP is the most accurate pollster for WI, PA and MI and Mason Dixon or Quinnepiac University are the right pollsters for South and D's lost a key race in TX 06, Special Elections still go against the INCUMBENT party

Not LA 2 of course but the completetive ones

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Neutral Environment, it's probably gonna be a 3 pt spread between CRIST and DeSantis, narrow edge to DeDantis at least for now until Covid is over

These aren't permanent ratings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems want to flip red governorships, they should focus on Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire, Maryland, and Massachusetts.

MA and NH are Safe R with the incumbents.

Molly Kelly can beat Sununu or Ayotte if she runs, D's are gonna blast the airwaves with Sununu vetoeing the minimum wage

We still haven't seen any PPP poll showing Sununu ahead I don't trust NH polls just like Scott Brown lost to SHAHEEN

DeSantis and DeWine are safe unless Quinnepiac University shows the Ds ahead

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis is gonna win, the EC map is gonna be 278 or 291 in 2024 excluding GA and D's matches the Prez Approvals and a 51/49 Approvals doesn't encompass the South

It encompass WI, PA, MU