Florida 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is a low tax state, it doesn't have state income taxes, as Gov Crist as an R didn't raise taxes, Fried wasn't Gov and voters arent assured that she won't raise property or sales taxes, that's why Crist will win primary
Gillium lost as a Socialisic Afro American whom might raise property and sakes taxes

[Tekken_Guy]

Still likely R. She’d do worse than Crist in a general and honestly turns AGCom into a likely R pickup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Still likely R. She’d do worse than Crist in a general and honestly turns AGCom into a likely R pickup.

To our R users, Rs are -9 on R friendly QU poll Generic ballot test that pushed Chris Christie in 2009/13 to NJ Gov

We didn't win 33H seats in 2017 we won them in 2018 it's still 500 days not 180 days til Election

Rs can lose 1 OH, FL or IAGov we won them in 2008/12/18

[JMT]

I think she should wait to 2026. Crist is a better candidate for 2022, but neither is likely to win despite DeSantis being a poor governor.

Fried probably figured she was the underdog whether she ran for reelection or for governor, so might as well get more name recognition by running for higher office. Fried is also only 43 years old, so she could definitely run for Governor again in 2026 (or another office) if she loses the primary or general election this time (unlike Crist; this is probably his last chance to be Governor given his age and previous electoral losses).

I'm not sure who I support in this race, I like both Fried and Crist. I'd be happy with either as the nominee. I think it's unlikely to happen, but maybe Crist could choose Fried as his running mate if the primary doesn't get too nasty?

[Astatine]

She’s in.
https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1399791366712999943?s=21

Drinking game for the gubernatorial campaign: Drink 1 shot every time Nikkie Fried says "underestimated" or "something new".

[Dereich]

I think she should wait to 2026. Crist is a better candidate for 2022, but neither is likely to win despite DeSantis being a poor governor.

Fried probably figured she was the underdog whether she ran for reelection or for governor, so might as well get more name recognition by running for higher office. Fried is also only 43 years old, so she could definitely run for Governor again in 2026 (or another office) if she loses the primary or general election this time (unlike Crist; this is probably his last chance to be Governor given his age and previous electoral losses).

I'm not sure who I support in this race, I like both Fried and Crist. I'd be happy with either as the nominee. I think it's unlikely to happen, but maybe Crist could choose Fried as his running mate if the primary doesn't get too nasty?

Florida Lt. Governor is a worthless and dead-end position that is normally only taken by State House members who are about to term out and who cannot find a nearby open Senate seat. Even if it looked like Crist would win it'd be such a step down from Ag. Commissioner that I doubt she'd say yes.

[Skill and Chance]

I think she should wait to 2026. Crist is a better candidate for 2022, but neither is likely to win despite DeSantis being a poor governor.

I think reelection would have been a better bet, but not because of Crist.  Crist is extremely old news at this point and is unlikely to be a strong nominee.  If Fried gets out of the primary, she would have a better chance of winning than Crist IMO, but the bottom line is they both start as massive underdogs.  I just doubt it's worth it for Fried to have perhaps a 20% chance at the nomination and then a 20% chance of winning governor when she could have been 50/50ish for reelection.

[Terlylane]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

[Real Texan Politics]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

It voted for Bernie in the 2016 primaries as well. I know that’s probably a terrible comparison but Fried seems to be more to the left of Crist so I wonder if she’d win Holmes.

[Donerail]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

It voted for Bernie in the 2016 primaries as well. I know that’s probably a terrible comparison but Fried seems to be more to the left of Crist so I wonder if she’d win Holmes.

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.

[Terlylane]

Will Crist win Holmes county in the primary? He lost it in the 2014 primary.

It voted for Bernie in the 2016 primaries as well. I know that’s probably a terrible comparison but Fried seems to be more to the left of Crist so I wonder if she’d win Holmes.

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.

So the same goes for Alan Grayson in 2016 as well?

I suspect Gwen Graham’s support was much more authentic though.

[One Term Floridian]

Just what we need in FL: a Democratic primary featuring Fried v Crust

Both decent candidates who will be overcome by the state’s rigid Lean R partisanship

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am donating to Whaley, DeSantis is up by 10pts

FL has no state income taxes and that's why Gwen Graham declined to run

The reason why DeSantis will win is because the tourism industry is gonna be up and running again

Grayson or Deming's probably will lose, we won't sweep Rs, we have a better chance in OH, NC, IA 53/54/55

They're all wave insurence seats but IA, OH and NC are our path to 55 seats, FL is the last seat to fall and then MO for 56/57

[President Johnson]

Lmao

[Donerail]

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.

So the same goes for Alan Grayson in 2016 as well?

I suspect Gwen Graham’s support was much more authentic though.

Holmes, like many Panhandle counties, is home to a substantial number of Democrats who are registered Democrat solely to vote in local primaries. They turn out on election day to vote for Sheriff, and there's also a couple races on the top of the ballot that they don't really care about because they'll be voting for the Republican in November, so they take the opportunity to vote against the Democratic frontrunner. This was true for Alan Grayson (though they also gave nearly 30% of the vote to Pam Keith) and Nan Rich and Bernie Sanders (with a respectable share to O’Malley), as well as Brian Moore of the Socialist Party USA over Alex Sink in 2012, and nutritionist Glenn Burkett over Bill Nelson in 2012. It's just a protest vote.

I think it's an open question how long we'll continue to see this pattern in the Panhandle, as registered Democrats there move, die or re-register; in Holmes in particular it looks like all of their county electeds have finally flipped.

[wbrocks67]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Still likely R.

Could've just left it at that as that's the truth for any combination of D/R candidates in this race

[Terlylane]

The Democrats in Holmes County did not vote for Bernie because he was the more left-wing option, nor did they vote for Nan Rich because they love liberals.

So the same goes for Alan Grayson in 2016 as well?

I suspect Gwen Graham’s support was much more authentic though.

Holmes, like many Panhandle counties, is home to a substantial number of Democrats who are registered Democrat solely to vote in local primaries. They turn out on election day to vote for Sheriff, and there's also a couple races on the top of the ballot that they don't really care about because they'll be voting for the Republican in November, so they take the opportunity to vote against the Democratic frontrunner. This was true for Alan Grayson (though they also gave nearly 30% of the vote to Pam Keith) and Nan Rich and Bernie Sanders (with a respectable share to O’Malley), as well as Brian Moore of the Socialist Party USA over Alex Sink in 2012, and nutritionist Glenn Burkett over Bill Nelson in 2012. It's just a protest vote.

I think it's an open question how long we'll continue to see this pattern in the Panhandle, as registered Democrats there move, die or re-register; in Holmes in particular it looks like all of their county electeds have finally flipped.

I get that, but unlike the others, Gwen Graham actually fit the area well. Same goes for John Edwards in the 2008 primary.

[Real Texan Politics]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

[President Johnson]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

She can run in both races?

I think both she and Crist would be fine governors, though Crist may have a better shot at winning the general. But as much as I'd like DeSantis lose and the hype evaporated, it's not likely to happen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not sure why people here are so vehemently against Fried, when she was the only Dem who managed to get elected in 2018 and seems to be well liked in FL.

By 6,000 votes in a blue year. Even if she loses the primary, I'm very confident she'd lose the agricultural commissioner race this time around.

She can run in both races?

I think both she and Crist would be fine governors, though Crist may have a better shot at winning the general. But as much as I'd like DeSantis lose and the hype evaporated, it's not likely to happen.

OH, IA, NC and FL were won in 2008/12/18, never say never, Rs are down nine on Generic ballot, it can happen in 500 days not 180 days in a big enough wave DeSantis losing. I was emailed a poll showing Alan Grayson down only 5 to Rubio

Fried or Crist can actually beat DeSANTIS, it depends on how we fair in OH, IA, NC and FL SEN races

Which are must wins now, since Sinema and Manchin just said they won't nuke the Filibuster

We have plenty of time to make our Prediction maps

[Biden his time]

I made a map:



Image Link


Comments?

[Terlylane]

I made a map:



Image Link


Comments?

I guess Oklaloosa and Clay are becoming the new Rapid D swing centers. (Not really)

[LAKISYLVANIA]

At this point, it wouldn't surprise me if Rubio got over 60% of the vote in the next election, as well as De Santis.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I made a map:



Image Link


Comments?

Escambia stands out.