Florida 2022 Megathread

[President Johnson]

I wonder whether Nikki Fried sits this one out now? She could be viable in 2026, regardless of who's president.

[brucejoel99]

I wonder whether Nikki Fried sits this one out now? She could be viable in 2026, regardless of who's president.

She probably should, but she definitely won't.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder whether Nikki Fried sits this one out now? She could be viable in 2026, regardless of who's president.

She probably should, but she definitely won't.

If they did somehow win, the new Dem governor would also be able to get a lot more done with another Dem in the cabinet.  If all 3 of the other statewide offices are the opposite party of the governor, they can block a lot of the governor's executive powers, but a 2/2 tie goes in favor of the governor. 

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder whether Nikki Fried sits this one out now? She could be viable in 2026, regardless of who's president.

She probably should, but she definitely won't.

If they did somehow win, the new Dem governor would also be able to get a lot more done with another Dem in the cabinet.  If all 3 of the other statewide offices are the opposite party of the governor, they can block a lot of the governor's executive powers, but a 2/2 tie goes in favor of the governor. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unless a Quinnepiac University poll shows D's winning FL Unfortunately, DeSantis is safe and Biden has the exact Approvals he had on Election night meaning he loses FL by 3 pts

[junior chįmp]

Unless a Quinnepiac University poll shows D's winning FL Unfortunately, DeSantis is safe and Biden has the exact Approvals he had on Election night meaning he loses FL by 3 pts

Consequently?

[Sir Mohamed]

Unless a Quinnepiac University poll shows D's winning FL Unfortunately, DeSantis is safe and Biden has the exact Approvals he had on Election night meaning he loses FL by 3 pts

You said few days ago I'm DeSantis apologist and CRIST can win with 47-42 generic ballot?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The state just passed Voter suppression laws

But, usually PPP is the most accurate pollster for WI, PA and MI and Mason Dixon or Quinnepiac University are the right pollsters for South and D's lost a key race in TX 06, Special Elections still go against the INCUMBENT party

Not LA 2 of course but the completetive ones

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In a Neutral Environment, it's probably gonna be a 3 pt spread between CRIST and DeSantis, narrow edge to DeDantis at least for now until Covid is over

These aren't permanent ratings

[Donerail]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

Odd cutoff, but here are all the major statewide races over the last decade with a final margin greater than seven points:

• 2012 U.S. Senate (+12 Dem win)
• 2016 U.S. Senate (+7.7 GOP win)

And that's it. The last gubernatorial race with a win of >7 points (7.1!) was in 2006, and won by... Charlie Crist.

[Lognog]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

Odd cutoff, but here are all the major statewide races over the last decade with a final margin greater than seven points:

• 2012 U.S. Senate (+12 Dem win)
• 2016 U.S. Senate (+7.7 GOP win)

And that's it. The last gubernatorial race with a win of >7 points (7.1!) was in 2006, and won by... Charlie Crist.

If trends continue in the 2020 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

Odd cutoff, but here are all the major statewide races over the last decade with a final margin greater than seven points:

• 2012 U.S. Senate (+12 Dem win)
• 2016 U.S. Senate (+7.7 GOP win)

And that's it. The last gubernatorial race with a win of >7 points (7.1!) was in 2006, and won by... Charlie Crist.

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

This. People claiming Florida is still a “swing state” is reminiscent of a few years ago when people thought Virginia was still competitive.

[Lognog]

Does anyone seriously think this race will be within 7 points?. I would not be shocked if the DNC makes this their 2020 South Carolina, to be frank. Millions of dollars spent..... only to lose by 10 instead of 12!

Odd cutoff, but here are all the major statewide races over the last decade with a final margin greater than seven points:

• 2012 U.S. Senate (+12 Dem win)
• 2016 U.S. Senate (+7.7 GOP win)

And that's it. The last gubernatorial race with a win of >7 points (7.1!) was in 2006, and won by... Charlie Crist.

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

This. People claiming Florida is still a “swing state” is reminiscent of a few years ago when people thought Virginia was still competitive.

wouldn't be surprised to see Maimi dade go R for both gov and senate

[2016]

This is for everybody:
You all should put Kanye West ala Olowakandi on ignore. Don't respond to any of his Posts because his Predictions are so outlandish it's useless to discuss with him.

The more you respond to him, the more he posts crap stuff & Predictions. The less you do respond the less he posts. He just wants attention. Don't give him that!

[Lognog]

This is for everybody:
You all should put Kanye West ala Olowakandi on ignore. Don't respond to any of his Posts because his Predictions are so outlandish it's useless to discuss with him.

Heartbreaking, the worst person you know made a great point

[YE]

No Olawakandi is great if you accept the fact that you won’t be able to understand everything he posts and people need to stop trying to argue with him.

[libertpaulian]

If Dems want to flip red governorships, they should focus on Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire, Maryland, and Massachusetts.

[Roll Roons]

If Dems want to flip red governorships, they should focus on Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire, Maryland, and Massachusetts.

MA and NH are Safe R with the incumbents. NH is certainly a target if Sununu runs for Senate, but Baker looks likely to run for a third term.

[Donerail]

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

"the 2022"? "Maimi dade"? Literacy? Very silly to assume that the last election is the only one that ever matters & trends will continue out into time forever.

[2016]

No Olawakandi is great if you accept the fact that you won’t be able to understand everything he posts and people need to stop trying to argue with him.

No, Olowakandi is SPAMMING in a very obscure, bad way.

[Lognog]

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

"the 2022"? "Maimi dade"? Literacy? Very silly to assume that the last election is the only one that ever matters & trends will continue out into time forever.

sorry about the typos but its more silly to straight out ignore the massive shifts from 2016 to 2020.
Maimi-Dade's shifts were among the most extreme in the nation. you're telling people to ignore that??
futhermore, 2022 will be a GOP year and the Maimi dade will mostly shift more atlas blue from 2020.

[Donerail]

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

"the 2022"? "Maimi dade"? Literacy? Very silly to assume that the last election is the only one that ever matters & trends will continue out into time forever.

sorry about the typos but its more silly to straight out ignore the massive shifts from 2016 to 2020.
Maimi-Dade's shifts were among the most extreme in the nation. you're telling people to ignore that??
futhermore, 2022 will be a GOP year and the Maimi dade will mostly shift more atlas blue from 2020.

We saw a 6-point shift toward the Democrats in Dade from 2012 to 2016. Anyone who assumed that trend would not only hold but intensify in 2020 ended up looking very stupid when it snapped back hard. I am looking out for you!

[_.]

If trends continue in the 2022 with Maimi dade it could easily be a double digit blow out win for R's

"the 2022"? "Maimi dade"? Literacy? Very silly to assume that the last election is the only one that ever matters & trends will continue out into time forever.

sorry about the typos but its more silly to straight out ignore the massive shifts from 2016 to 2020.
Maimi-Dade's shifts were among the most extreme in the nation. you're telling people to ignore that??
futhermore, 2022 will be a GOP year and the Maimi dade will mostly shift more atlas blue from 2020.

We saw a 6-point shift toward the Democrats in Dade from 2012 to 2016. Anyone who assumed that trend would not only hold but intensify in 2020 ended up looking very stupid when it snapped back hard. I am looking out for you!

How dare you question the idea that 2020 trends are permanent. This is obviously what the map will look like:

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Dems want to flip red governorships, they should focus on Georgia, Arizona, New Hampshire, Maryland, and Massachusetts.

MA and NH are Safe R with the incumbents.

Molly Kelly can beat Sununu or Ayotte if she runs, D's are gonna blast the airwaves with Sununu vetoeing the minimum wage

We still haven't seen any PPP poll showing Sununu ahead I don't trust NH polls just like Scott Brown lost to SHAHEEN

DeSantis and DeWine are safe unless Quinnepiac University shows the Ds ahead