Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Epaminondas]

When will Youngkin give a concession speech, and when will the VA GOP start their post-mortem?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

Goochland really almost came through for her😂😂😂😂😂

Thankfully she lost

I hope she rightfully earns Queen of Goochland next time!!

You do realize she pretty unambiguously committed sexual harassment, right?  Like, the porn thing aside; that should be disqualifying right there.

[Birdish]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

[Tartarus Sauce]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

If anything it confirms that the GOP in Virginia are fairly screwed going forward. The downballot lag strength is nothing close to what it was during the Obama years and they couldn’t hold onto their flipped chamber for longer than a single session. The ceiling continues to lower.

[Umengus]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

I prefer to lose by 2 (?) than to lose by 10. margins are very important, democrats like to speak about it in special elections.

[ProgressiveModerate]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

The absolute outcome in Virginia is good for Democrats; the only thing really at stake was whether Dems would get a majority in each chamber and in the end they won both.

However, they still have a lot of room for improvement; they lost a ton of Biden + 5-10 seats due to factors like being outspent and low black turnout which were at least somewhat in the state party's control.

It's the same way in Mississippi, from an absolute standpoint the only thing that mattered was Reeves won the Governorship, but his relatively weak performance suggests Rs in the state have work to do.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

The absolute outcome in Virginia is good for Democrats; the only thing really at stake was whether Dems would get a majority in each chamber and in the end they won both.

However, they still have a lot of room for improvement; they lost a ton of Biden + 5-10 seats due to factors like being outspent and low black turnout which were at least somewhat in the state party's control.

It's the same way in Mississippi, from an absolute standpoint the only thing that mattered was Reeves won the Governorship, but his relatively weak performance suggests Rs in the state have work to do.

Its an off-year election, it's not realistic to expect presidential qualities to all align for this.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trying to spin Virginia Democrats' performance last night into a disappointment is like if Ned Lamont last year "underperformed" because he ran seven points behind Biden, who was running in a presidential year.

[henster]

With Morrissey and Petersen gone along with a lot the old guard like Saslaw this majority while narrow is a lot more ideologically solid. Morrissey would've definitely voted with Youngkin for an abortion ban and I definitely saw either him or Petersen giving the GOP some kind of power.

[Mr.Phips]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

The absolute outcome in Virginia is good for Democrats; the only thing really at stake was whether Dems would get a majority in each chamber and in the end they won both.

However, they still have a lot of room for improvement; they lost a ton of Biden + 5-10 seats due to factors like being outspent and low black turnout which were at least somewhat in the state party's control.

It's the same way in Mississippi, from an absolute standpoint the only thing that mattered was Reeves won the Governorship, but his relatively weak performance suggests Rs in the state have work to do.

The VA HOD is likely to be pretty solid for Dems going forward.  Dems were able to get a majority there without winning a single seat that Biden won by less than 12 points.  This was probably Republicans’ last real shot at a majority there under current coalitions.

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

The absolute outcome in Virginia is good for Democrats; the only thing really at stake was whether Dems would get a majority in each chamber and in the end they won both.

However, they still have a lot of room for improvement; they lost a ton of Biden + 5-10 seats due to factors like being outspent and low black turnout which were at least somewhat in the state party's control.

It's the same way in Mississippi, from an absolute standpoint the only thing that mattered was Reeves won the Governorship, but his relatively weak performance suggests Rs in the state have work to do.

The VA HOD is likely to be pretty solid for Dems going forward.  Dems were able to get a majority there without winning a single seat that Biden won by less than 12 points.  This was probably Republicans’ last real shot at a majority there under current coalitions.

I would agree with that.  There were bunch of narrow misses in the HoD in significantly Dem trending areas (Henrico/Chesterfield/Williamsburg), and Dems still took control without the.  The PWC seat they flipped may be vulnerable given less favorable trends there (D's basically ran even with McAuliffe 2021 throughout PWC while obviously doing better elsewhere), but there's also an outer Loudoun seat that was only won 53/47 by the R this week after being tied between Biden and Trump, so it's probably screaming left.   55D/45R in the HoD seems totally achievable in 2025 (they pick up 57, 75, 71, 82, and 89).  The ceiling is also really high in a Dem wave, approaching 70D/30R.

The State Senate math actually looks worse than expected for Dems.  With PWC drifting back right vs. statewide, they will need to make progress somewhere else to make up for SD-30 being more of a toss up than expected.  One way to do that would be winning LG in 2025, because 20 of the 40 seats were quite clearly left of the state.  SD-24 appears to have trended right, and SD-17 trended right dramatically.  SD-27 probably looks the most promising for Dem expansion given it was only a 2% R plurality win with a left-leaning independent taking 4.5%?   Also, interesting how close SD-4 in Roanoke was, 53/46 R win in a Trump +1 seat, and without anything close to a top tier investment in the Dem.

[ProgressiveModerate]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

The absolute outcome in Virginia is good for Democrats; the only thing really at stake was whether Dems would get a majority in each chamber and in the end they won both.

However, they still have a lot of room for improvement; they lost a ton of Biden + 5-10 seats due to factors like being outspent and low black turnout which were at least somewhat in the state party's control.

It's the same way in Mississippi, from an absolute standpoint the only thing that mattered was Reeves won the Governorship, but his relatively weak performance suggests Rs in the state have work to do.

The VA HOD is likely to be pretty solid for Dems going forward.  Dems were able to get a majority there without winning a single seat that Biden won by less than 12 points.  This was probably Republicans’ last real shot at a majority there under current coalitions.

I would agree with that.  There were bunch of narrow misses in the HoD in significantly Dem trending areas (Henrico/Chesterfield/Williamsburg), and Dems still took control without the.  The PWC seat they flipped may be vulnerable given less favorable trends there (D's basically ran even with McAuliffe 2021 throughout PWC while obviously doing better elsewhere), but there's also an outer Loudoun seat that was only won 53/47 by the R this week after being tied between Biden and Trump, so it's probably screaming left.   55D/45R in the HoD seems totally achievable in 2025 (they pick up 57, 75, 71, 82, and 89).  The ceiling is also really high in a Dem wave, approaching 70D/30R.

The State Senate math actually looks worse than expected for Dems.  With PWC drifting back right vs. statewide, they will need to make progress somewhere else to make up for SD-30 being more of a toss up than expected.  One way to do that would be winning LG in 2025, because 20 of the 40 seats were quite clearly left of the state.  SD-24 appears to have trended right, and SD-17 trended right dramatically.  SD-27 probably looks the most promising for Dem expansion given it was only a 2% R plurality win with a left-leaning independent taking 4.5%?   Also, interesting how close SD-4 in Roanoke was, 53/46 R win in a Trump +1 seat, and without anything close to a top tier investment in the Dem.

Is PWC County really “drifting right”. Dems uniquely bad 2023 performance could just be due to low non-white turnout and local issues; it’s been pretty consistently shifting left at the Pres level for the past few decades and is still seeing growth from Dc.

[Skill and Chance]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

The absolute outcome in Virginia is good for Democrats; the only thing really at stake was whether Dems would get a majority in each chamber and in the end they won both.

However, they still have a lot of room for improvement; they lost a ton of Biden + 5-10 seats due to factors like being outspent and low black turnout which were at least somewhat in the state party's control.

It's the same way in Mississippi, from an absolute standpoint the only thing that mattered was Reeves won the Governorship, but his relatively weak performance suggests Rs in the state have work to do.

The VA HOD is likely to be pretty solid for Dems going forward.  Dems were able to get a majority there without winning a single seat that Biden won by less than 12 points.  This was probably Republicans’ last real shot at a majority there under current coalitions.

I would agree with that.  There were bunch of narrow misses in the HoD in significantly Dem trending areas (Henrico/Chesterfield/Williamsburg), and Dems still took control without the.  The PWC seat they flipped may be vulnerable given less favorable trends there (D's basically ran even with McAuliffe 2021 throughout PWC while obviously doing better elsewhere), but there's also an outer Loudoun seat that was only won 53/47 by the R this week after being tied between Biden and Trump, so it's probably screaming left.   55D/45R in the HoD seems totally achievable in 2025 (they pick up 57, 75, 71, 82, and 89).  The ceiling is also really high in a Dem wave, approaching 70D/30R.

The State Senate math actually looks worse than expected for Dems.  With PWC drifting back right vs. statewide, they will need to make progress somewhere else to make up for SD-30 being more of a toss up than expected.  One way to do that would be winning LG in 2025, because 20 of the 40 seats were quite clearly left of the state.  SD-24 appears to have trended right, and SD-17 trended right dramatically.  SD-27 probably looks the most promising for Dem expansion given it was only a 2% R plurality win with a left-leaning independent taking 4.5%?   Also, interesting how close SD-4 in Roanoke was, 53/46 R win in a Trump +1 seat, and without anything close to a top tier investment in the Dem.

Is PWC County really “drifting right”. Dems uniquely bad 2023 performance could just be due to low non-white turnout and local issues; it’s been pretty consistently shifting left at the Pres level for the past few decades and is still seeing growth from Dc.

Dems have underperformed in PWC in a relative sense in every election since 2020.  The county is 26% Hispanic (the most in VA), so this is probably an extension of the gradual Hispanic R trend.  I certainly don't expect Dems to lose PWC anytime soon, but there's a greater chance they get held under 60% going forward.  FWIW Dems only matched McAuliffe in PWC while running ~3% ahead of him statewide.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

In fact the night was not so good for the dems: if biden does the same result, he loses the election.

I'm getting tired of reading this.

*Democrats flip a chamber* -> "Here's why that's bad news for democrats"

Down ballot races aren't always good proxies for national races. Virginia Republicans still have strength down ballot and Biden winning the state by double digits wasn't a normal occurrence.

The absolute outcome in Virginia is good for Democrats; the only thing really at stake was whether Dems would get a majority in each chamber and in the end they won both.

However, they still have a lot of room for improvement; they lost a ton of Biden + 5-10 seats due to factors like being outspent and low black turnout which were at least somewhat in the state party's control.

It's the same way in Mississippi, from an absolute standpoint the only thing that mattered was Reeves won the Governorship, but his relatively weak performance suggests Rs in the state have work to do.

The VA HOD is likely to be pretty solid for Dems going forward.  Dems were able to get a majority there without winning a single seat that Biden won by less than 12 points.  This was probably Republicans’ last real shot at a majority there under current coalitions.

I would agree with that.  There were bunch of narrow misses in the HoD in significantly Dem trending areas (Henrico/Chesterfield/Williamsburg), and Dems still took control without the.  The PWC seat they flipped may be vulnerable given less favorable trends there (D's basically ran even with McAuliffe 2021 throughout PWC while obviously doing better elsewhere), but there's also an outer Loudoun seat that was only won 53/47 by the R this week after being tied between Biden and Trump, so it's probably screaming left.   55D/45R in the HoD seems totally achievable in 2025 (they pick up 57, 75, 71, 82, and 89).  The ceiling is also really high in a Dem wave, approaching 70D/30R.

The State Senate math actually looks worse than expected for Dems.  With PWC drifting back right vs. statewide, they will need to make progress somewhere else to make up for SD-30 being more of a toss up than expected.  One way to do that would be winning LG in 2025, because 20 of the 40 seats were quite clearly left of the state.  SD-24 appears to have trended right, and SD-17 trended right dramatically.  SD-27 probably looks the most promising for Dem expansion given it was only a 2% R plurality win with a left-leaning independent taking 4.5%?   Also, interesting how close SD-4 in Roanoke was, 53/46 R win in a Trump +1 seat, and without anything close to a top tier investment in the Dem.

Is PWC County really “drifting right”. Dems uniquely bad 2023 performance could just be due to low non-white turnout and local issues; it’s been pretty consistently shifting left at the Pres level for the past few decades and is still seeing growth from Dc.

Dems have underperformed in PWC in a relative sense in every election since 2020.  The county is 26% Hispanic (the most in VA), so this is probably an extension of the gradual Hispanic R trend.  I certainly don't expect Dems to lose PWC anytime soon, but there's a greater chance they get held under 60% going forward.  FWIW Dems only matched McAuliffe in PWC while running ~3% ahead of him statewide.

FWIW PWC is generally friendly to Rs in off-years. Gillespie only lost it by 2-3 in 2014 after Romney lost by 15.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/margaretbarthel/status/1722238353230463123
https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1722260611520946345

[LtNOWIS]

Biggest victory goes to Chaz Nuttycombe, who got all 140 seats correctly predicted, despite still being in college. We're lucky to have him in the field.

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

Goochland really almost came through for her😂😂😂😂😂

Thankfully she lost

I hope she rightfully earns Queen of Goochland next time!!

You do realize she pretty unambiguously committed sexual harassment, right?  Like, the porn thing aside; that should be disqualifying right there.

She unambiguously did not. Nobody had any complaints or was subject to any adult content they weren't looking for, except of course for the voters who got porn in the mail, courtesy of GOP activists.

[Nyvin]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

Goochland really almost came through for her😂😂😂😂😂

Thankfully she lost

I hope she rightfully earns Queen of Goochland next time!!

You do realize she pretty unambiguously committed sexual harassment, right?  Like, the porn thing aside; that should be disqualifying right there.

WTF are you talking about?  She had a Chaturbate profile with her husband, that's it, that was all there was to the scandal.   Who the heck got harrassed by that?  Besides whoever received those GOP mailers maybe.

[Person Man]

FWIW Susanna Gibson overperformed the fundamentals.  That was the best Dem result in the state in a Biden +5 seat.

Goochland really almost came through for her😂😂😂😂😂

Thankfully she lost

I hope she rightfully earns Queen of Goochland next time!!

You do realize she pretty unambiguously committed sexual harassment, right?  Like, the porn thing aside; that should be disqualifying right there.

WTF are you talking about?  She had a Chaturbate profile with her husband, that's it, that was all there was to the scandal.   Who the heck got harrassed by that?  Besides whoever received those GOP mailers maybe.

There was this accusation that she tried to make hotel staff see her naked but nothing ever came of it.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1723483423535157476

[Roll Roons]

Isn't this a Safe Dem district?

[Tekken_Guy]

Isn't this a Safe Dem district?

Yes.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1723483423535157476

A special election will be held in she's deemed ineligible. Where does the Republican get off claiming I get the seat by default? So far no one by Daily Wire has said anything about this.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1723483423535157476

A special election will be held in she's deemed ineligible. Where does the Republican get off claiming I get the seat by default?

Biden +32.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1723483423535157476

A special election will be held in she's deemed ineligible. Where does the Republican get off claiming I get the seat by default?

Biden +32.

Ok and a special election will be held. The Republican doesn't get the seat by default.

[Nyvin]

Also a 20D-19R Senate doesn't mean Democrats "lose control" of it.