Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Given various LDP kingpin stop Kono at all costs position the map of the LDP Prez race to the 2020 Dem primary would be

河野太郎(Kono Taro)  = Sanders
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) = Biden
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) = Buttigieg
野田聖子(Noda Seiko) = Warren
Abe = Obama

The basic idea is to let Kishida and Takaichi fight it out to be the establishment candidate but make sure Noda stays in the race to split Kono's support.  Then consolidate in the second round around one candidate pro-establishment candidate (most likely Kishida) to defeat Kono in the second round.

So the race did end up being 2020 Dem primary redux with all the players mapped out pretty closely to the way I projected.

[jaichind]

I just noticed Yamanashi.
Seems a bit of an outlier but there has to be some reason for it.
More generally I'm a bit surprised to see how little Kishida's "ideology" vs Kono's seems to have mattered.

I have no explanation for 山梨(Yamanashi).  This place used to have an Opposition lean but have been trending LDP and is not that rural so this should be a Kono prefecture.  I suspect it might have to do with ideology.  DPP did well here in the PR vote in 2019 (they got almost 10%.)  I suspect the pro-DPP lean of this prefecture maps to Kishida pretty well.

[jaichind]

Kishida  becoming LDP PM follows a long pattern of how to become LDP PM which is: Be a member of a political family and then have your father pass away or retire early so you get to run for his seat when you are young (ideally early 30s.)   This was the path of Hashimoto, Koizumi Senior, Abe and now Kishida.  That was also the path of Ozawa enough he never became PM but could have a several occasions.  The idea is the to get into the cabinet and then a senior role in the LDP depends on tenure.  Once you get enough tenure you might be too old  to run a campaign for LDP Prez and be an electoral asset for the LDP in general elections.  So you have to get elected while you are young.  But with no name recognition this is hard to do unless you are part of a political dynasty.  But in Japan it is bad etiquette for 2 people from the family to be in active politics at the same time.  So the best way is for your father to pass away early or ideally retire early. 

In fact this logic sometimes acts in a recursive way. Koizumi Senior father pass away early allowing him to gain the tenure to become PM while he is young.  In this case Koizumi Senior choose to retire after stepping down as PM which created the same dynamic for his son Koizumi Junior who became a MP fairly young in his life just like his father and in theory is on track to be in contention in the late 2020s and early 2030s.

[KaiserDave]

So, the way I understand it, Kishida is quite conservative on cultural/national issues, as opposed to Kono who is significantly more liberal and reformist. Whereas on economics Kishida is a free spending type with one nation sort of viewpoints, and Kono is more focused on cutting bureaucracy.
Is that right?

[jaichind]

So, the way I understand it, Kishida is quite conservative on cultural/national issues, as opposed to Kono who is significantly more liberal and reformist. Whereas on economics Kishida is a free spending type with one nation sort of viewpoints, and Kono is more focused on cutting bureaucracy.
Is that right?

To simplify yes.   The mapping would be

河野太郎(Kono Taro)  - Libertarian
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio) - Populist
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) - Conservative
野田聖子(Noda Seiko) - Progressive

Note a of their positions are opportunistic either for market segmentation or trying to prevent or promote tactical voting.  From a free market orthodoxy point of view Kono clearly is the most Right wing on economic issues.

[jaichind]

Kishida  is clearly more interested to consolidate Takaichi's base versus Kono's base.  His first tweet after getting home is to tweet a picture a traditional 広島(Hiroshima) dish his wife made for him with a comment that he appreciates his wife that she make dishes this this well.  His main message is that his family is traditional and his social views will align with that.

[KaiserDave]

Takaichi is horrifying.

[jaichind]

Takaichi is horrifying.

My main problem with her is mostly hypocrisy.  Her position is conservative on social issues including supporting the law that a married couple has to share a common last name which in 99% of the cases would be the husband's last name.  Without getting into the merits of this law, my problem is that when she was married to a fellow LDP MP she kept her maiden name  in her campaign posters.  It is clear why.  She was elected when she was single and her voters will be confused when they will be asked to write in a different name on the ballot paper.  But if she is going to do this then do not make a big deal about her position to back this law as a way to rally the LDP conservative base.

BTW, this problem has since been solved because in 2017 her LDP MP husband divorced her indicating that her political views were too right wing for him.

But the LDP conservative base, especially those on the Japanese internet, do not seem to care and she is on the path toward being the leader of the LDP hard right in the future.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I’m sure it won’t in the long run because Japanese politics basically doesn’t work this way, but would Kishida turn off any more moderate voters that would be more attracted to Kono?

[jaichind]

I’m sure it won’t in the long run because Japanese politics basically doesn’t work this way, but would Kishida turn off any more moderate voters that would be more attracted to Kono?

Yes but this is mostly non-ideological.  There are some Libertarian JRP voters that would vote for a Kono led LDP due to ideological reasons but Kishida in theory can attract some DPP and even CDP voters for his Keynesian redistribution platform.  In practice this is more about personality and who is seen as bring in a new style of politics.  That was the reason for the CDP surge in 2017 and a very limited RS surge in 2019.  Turnout will be higher this year which means the "who will change politics" floating vote would be larger.  Kono for sure would have beaten out both CDP and JRP for that vote.  With  Kishida at the helm of the LDP that vote will be split between CDP JRP and RS.

There are also regional leans.  Kono is a good fit for Greater Tokyo area while Kishida is a good fit for Southern Japan.  CDP being stronger in Greater Tokyo area and are looking to make gains there must be breathing a sigh of relief that Kono did not win.

[jaichind]

Various interviews with LDP MPs shed some might on the massive Kono underperformance with LDP MP vote.  What seems to have taken place was

a) Kono's strategy was focused on targeting a large number junior MPs to back Kono for their electoral benefit.  Kishida and Takaichi targeted more senior LDP MPs in each faction hoping they can influence the junior MPs in the same faction.  Kono's strategy failed.  It seems the LDP MPs are more focused on "doing what other's do" vs "self-interest."  To be fair LDP is optimized to function well as an organization so it is not a surprise that MP are more incentivized by organizational goals versus personal goals.

b) The Kono camp outsourced a lot of lobbying to Shigeru and Koizumi Junior on the premise that both are popular with LDP grassroots as well as independent voters.  They figured that these two can help push up Kono's vote with LDP grassroots as well as add pressure to junior MPs with the image that the Kono team will be very popular with independent voters and allow they to win even in a high turnout election.  This backfired as many LDP MPs were worried that after Kono takes over Shigeru and Koizumi Junior will be the ones really in charge.

The failed Kono strategy and underperformance was not, in retrospect, wrong.  Kono perhaps saw that Abe pushing  Takaichi into the race showed that he was determined to consolidate the hard Right around her to deny Kono the ability to win on the first round and then the fix will be in to defeat Kono in the second round.  What Kono must have decided was an all or nothing strategy of using  Shigeru and Koizumi Junior to help in an all court press to push his LDP chapter vote sky high as well as consolidate all the junior MPs to win on the first round.  Clearly it did not work but even if Kono did not go with this strategy he would still have loss on the second round by small margin.

From a game theory point of view it is very likely that Kono made the right call.  I guess even he was surprised how much it backfired and perhaps he can take comfort that if these were the results then he had no chance from the beginning anyway once Abe made up his mind to block Kono from winning.  Kono has to hope that this great underperformance does not damage his chances next time there is an open race for LDP Prez

[jaichind]

Kishida knows he won because of Abe throwing his weight around to stop Kono so all the plum jobs are going to Abe loyalists and of course his own faction.  Kono is going to get LDP PR office which is really a demotion. 

Japanese meme on what is happening to Kono


Kishida is going all in on the support for Kono the LDP outsider within the LDP and outside the LDP does not matter and instead it is key to consolidate the LDP conservatives base.   His gamble seems to be that with COVID-19 surge reseeding and Suga mostly getting the blame for the summer COVID-19 surge he can assume that the upcoming general election will be low turnout so getting the old LDP base to turn out will be good enough for a reduced but solid majority.

[jaichind]

It seems pro-DPP Upper House MP 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) from 埼玉(Saitama) will be forming a new Centrist party.  上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) who was in the LDP in the 1980s but turned rebel and joined DPJ in 2000s via being in Ozawa's NPF in the 1990s and was an anti-LDP governor of 埼玉(Saitama) until 2019.  He then entered the Upper House as an independent with DPP support. 

It seems several pro-CDP and pro-DPP independents mostly of the Centrist and Center-Right variety will be joining this new party.  4 Lower house independent incumbents  will most likely join.  3 of them are part of the anti-LDP electoral alliance anyway.  It is not clear at all why this new party is not just part of DPP since the main function is duplicative of DPP.  Most likely this new party will have an electoral alliance with CDP and DPP although most likely not with JCP.

It seems Upper House MP 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) is still going forward with his new Centrist party idea.  Several pro-CDP or pro-DPP MPs he was targeting to join his party seems to have declined to join so it seems unlikely he will get party that has 5 MPs where he can get government funding and be considered a serious party.  What he wants to do is to run his own candidates in LDP stronghold seats where the CDP-SDP-JCP-RS alliance have allocated to seat to JCP and DPP failed to nominate a candidate and try to pickup the anti-LDP anti-JCP vote.    All he will accomplish is to help create trouble for the CDP-SDP-JCP-RS alliance without any real benefit. 

What he should do is to try to form an alliance with DPP and JRP.  Of course it is not clear why they would want to help him create a party that merely tries to eat into their vote.

[jaichind]

A post LDP Prez race look at the general election seat by seat on likely outcome and grouped by prefecture.

It seems very likely to almost certain that the Center-Left Opposition will flip 28 seats from LDP-KP, JRP will flip 7 seats from LDP, and a DPP rebel turned pro-LDP independent will flip his own seat from Opposition

Beyond that are 56 competitive seats of which 33 are tossups.  Out of these 56 seats 51 were won by LDP in 2017 and 5 were won by the Opposition.  Of course some of these 56 seats 4 of them really LDP vs LDP rebel battles with 1 being a LDP vs LDP rebel vs CDP.  

So it is clear that the LDP will be on the defensive this year.  If you break out these 56 seats by prefecture you get.


Prefecture                    Total Seats   Competitive   Toss-ups    
北海道(Hokkaido)               12                 3                2
青森(Aomori)                      3
岩手(Iwate)                        3
宮城(Miyagi)                       6
秋田(Akita)                         3                 1                1
山形(Yamagata)                  3
福島(Fukushima)                 5
茨城(Ibaraki)                      7                 3                3
栃木(Tochigi)                      5
群馬(Gunma)                      5                1                1   (tossup really LDP vs LDP rebel)
埼玉(Saitama)                  15                 1
千葉(Chiba)                      13                3                 1
神奈川(Kanagawa)             18               4                 3
山梨(Yamanashi)                2              
東京(Tokyo)                     25                 9                6
新潟(Niigata)                     6                 3                2  (1 tossup really LDP vs LDP rebel)
富山(Toyama)                    3
石川(Ishikawa)                  3                 1
福井(Fukui)                       2
長野(Nagano)                    5                 2                2
岐阜(Gifu)                         5                 1                1
静岡(Shizuoka)                  8
愛知(Aichi)                      15                 2                1
三重(Mie)                         4  
滋賀(Shiga)                      4                 3                2
京都(Kyoto)                      6                 1                1  (tossup is LDP vs JCP)
大阪(Osaka)                    15                2                1  (tossup is JRP vs CDP)
兵庫(Hyōgo)                    12                2                1
奈良(Nara)                       3                 1                1
和歌山(Wakayama)           3                  
鳥取(Tottori)                    2
島根(Shimane)                 2
岡山(Okayama)                5                 3                1
広島(Hiroshima)               7                 1                1 (tossup is KP vs CDP)
山口(Yamaguchi)             4
徳島(Tokushima)              2                 1
香川(Kagawa)                  3
愛媛(Ehime)                    4
高知(Kōchi)                     2
福岡(Fukuoka)               11                 2                 1 (tossup is 3 way LDP vs LDP rebel vs CDP)
佐賀(Saga)                     2
長崎(Nagasaki)               4                  1
熊本(Kumamoto)             4                 1
大分(Ōita)                       3                 1
宮崎(Miyazaki)                3
鹿児島(Kagoshima)          4                 1
沖縄(Okinawa)                4                 1                1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                          289               56                33


Most of the LDP vs Opposition tossups are in urbanized prefectures.  滋賀(Shiga) is interesting because 3 out of 4 seats are competitive with 2 being tossups.  Out of 茨城(Ibaraki) 7 seats, 3 are competitive and all tossups.  Out of the 25 東京(Tokyo) seats 9 are competitive with 6 tossup.  JRP is running in almost all 東京(Tokyo) seats which could cut into both CDP and LDP votes.   It is this contour of tossup seats which makes LDP going with  Kishida  vs Kono a potentially dangerous move.



Other interesting seats are 京都(Kyoto) 1st where the LDP incumbent is stepping down and JCP and JRP both running strong candidates.  There is a chance that the JRP candidate cut into enough LDP votes to throw the race to JCP just like 沖縄(Okinawa) 1st.  And in 福岡(Fukuoka) 5th it is a 3 way tossup of LDP vs LDP rebel vs CDP.

In 千葉(Chiba) 6th, 東京(Tokyo) 17th and 兵庫(Hyōgo) 3rd are free-for-alls with LDP vs CDP vs DPP vs JRP vs JCP.  LDP win win with ease in all 3 but they seem fun anyway.

One last fun fact: RS as a member of the new CDP-SDP-JCP-RS has been allocated 山口(Yamaguchi) 4th which is Abe's seat which is of course a no possible win seat.  I suspect RS, like JCP, will get a few similar unwinnable seats while a winnable seat must be discussed for RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) to run in.

[jaichind]

Jiji reports that Kishida (once he is confirmed) to dissolve the Lower House on Oct 14 and with election day to be Nov 7.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/b5d4ca4fd64774d1e7b83bbfd6e5ab3e1f185405

There are now rumors that Koike's TPFA will, just like in 2017 when with Koike's backing formed HP, try to form a national party.  Koike seems to deny any knowledge of such a move but TPFA will have a press conference in a couple of days about this.  I doubt this time around there will be much impact.  In the Fall of 2017 HP really took off because various DP MPs started to defect to HP.  There are no signs that any CDP MP will be defecting to this hypothetical party.  At best this new party can be a minor ally of JRP or DPP or both. 

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/b5d4ca4fd64774d1e7b83bbfd6e5ab3e1f185405

There are now rumors that Koike's TPFA will, just like in 2017 when with Koike's backing formed HP, try to form a national party.  Koike seems to deny any knowledge of such a move but TPFA will have a press conference in a couple of days about this.  I doubt this time around there will be much impact.  In the Fall of 2017 HP really took off because various DP MPs started to defect to HP.  There are no signs that any CDP MP will be defecting to this hypothetical party.  At best this new party can be a minor ally of JRP or DPP or both. 

If this ends up being true then it will pretty much match  Karl Marx's quote "History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce."

Really, if there is a view that there is space between a non-charismatic Kishida's LDP and JCP by proxy CDP led Opposition alliance then what to do about it is to try to promote a JRP-DPP alliance, not by forming yet another party.

[jaichind]

When Kishida likely wins on the second round the Japanese equity index will fall.  I think a lot of foreign money are still assuming a Kono victory and they will most likely get a nasty surprise when Kishida wins on the second round.

"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-01/post-suga-jump-in-japan-stocks-vanishes-with-uninspiring-leader"

"Post-Suga Jump in Japan Stocks Vanishes With Uninspiring Leader"

Bloomberg article point out what I said was likely to happen.  All the money coming in to cash in on a Kono victory mostly have flowed back out again.

[jaichind]

Most theories out there about this Koike new party is that

a) In 2017 HP was formed to cut into the DP vote since DP just had a contentious leadership battle (really proto-CDP vs proto-DPP).  This time around the plan is to cut into the LDP vote in the Greater Tokyo area and other urban areas disappointed that Kono did not win.
b) Koike has been close to the  二階(Nikai) faction led by 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) as both were part of LP splinter NCP before NCP merged into LDP back in 2003.  With 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) power gone within the LDP as a result of Suga stepping down and the most recent leadership race there is no force within LDP that can constrain Koike
c) It will most likely merge with the pro-DPP Upper House MP上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi)'s new party. Ueda  being collogues with Koike back in the 1990s when they were part of Ozawa's NPF.

If all this is true I doubt it will work unless Koike resigns as Tokyo governor and runs for Lower House.  One way or another this is more likely to cut into the JRP vote than LDP vote.

[jaichind]

https://www.sponichi.co.jp/society/news/2021/10/02/kiji/20211001s00042000719000c.html

It seems that this new TPFA national party (aka New Koike Party) will

a) Look to run in all 25 seats in Tokyo
b) From an alliance with DPP which seems to have responded positively
c) Not have Koike resign as Tokyo governor to run for the lower house

Koike still claims she is not behind this and that she does not know the details of the formation of the party.  I think she is waiting to see how well this party polls before associating herself with the party.

Without Koike running at the top of this party all they are going to do in the 25 Tokyo seats is to cut into LDP or CDP or JRP votes and shift the results of those seats depending the nature of their candidate in said district without any chance of winning any seats.  All things equal I still think they hurt JRP the most.

It makes sense DPP is positive toward this new party since DPP is merely the rump successor of the original 2017 Koike HP party.

[jaichind]

Large Yomiuri poll done over Aug-Sept on views on desired outcome for upcoming Lower House election

Ruling parties (LDP-KP) far exceeds Opposition     9%
Ruling parties slightly exceeds Opposition            50%
Opposition slightly exceeds Ruling Parties            21%
Opposition far exceeds Ruling parties                    9%

For independents it is

Ruling parties (LDP-KP) far exceeds Opposition     8%
Ruling parties slightly exceeds Opposition            47%
Opposition slightly exceeds Ruling Parties            27%
Opposition far exceeds Ruling parties                  10%



There seems to be a mood for reducing LDP seats but not enough for them to lose power.

Of course one funny aspect of this poll is that in the case that Opposition parties overtakes the Ruling Parties then the Opposition will cease to be the Opposition and be the ruling parties.  But that is not the mindset of the average Japanese.    Back in 2009 when LDP was ousted, reporters interviewed people on the street who all said that "Wow, the opposition will now come to power."  The reporter pointed out that "well, the opposition is now the ruling party and not longer the opposition" and the people on the street would say "no, they are still the opposition."    The idea is that the LDP being the natural party of power is so ingrained that even if they are out of power they are often still called "the ruling party."

[jaichind]

It seems Kono,  Shigeru and Koizumi Junior will continue their alliance from the LDP leadership race and become the de facto "opposition" non-mainstream within the LDP.  They seem to plan to campaign for the LDP MPs that backed the Kono candidacy.  I guess they figure LDP will take loses under Kishida and are working to ensure that as many of the LDP MPs that survive are those that supported Kono so they can be ready for the next round of struggle with Abe and his proxies.

[jaichind]

So new Koike Party formed and held its first press conference

Name of party is: "ファーストの会" or First Association(FA) which is just cutting off the Tokyo People part of 都民ファーストの会 (Tokyo People First Association). 
Leader is 荒木千陽 (Araki Chiharu) who is currently a TPFA MLA in the Tokyo assembly.  She has been a long time personal assistant for Koike back from when she was a LDP MP.
The party aims to run candidates in Tokyo which means FA seems to want to start as  a JRP for Tokyo
Koike will not run for the party but FA will work for Koike to be a "special advisior."
Koike continues to claim she knows nothing about this new national party being formed

This FA really sounds like an attempt to find political jobs for TPFA candidate that failed to get elected in the 2021 Tokyo assembly elections. Without Koike running I do not see this really going anywhere unless it can form alliances with JRP and DPP in Tokyo.

[xelas81]

Doesn't Kibo still have there still 1 MP remaining?

[jaichind]

Doesn't Kibo still have there still 1 MP remaining?

Yes, 中山成彬(Nakayama Nariaki), who is the leader of rump HP and its only remaining MP.  He was a long time LDP MP, as well as his wife, on the extreme right.  Back in 2010 he bolted from the LDP and joined up with various extreme Right LDP splinters.  His wife actually became the leader of PFG in 2015 but with him jumped over to HP in 2017 leaving PFG to then eventually merge with LDP.  He was elected in 2017 on the HP PR slate.  He has zero chance of being elected and being almost 80 is almost certain to retire.