Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

https://nordot.app/807937967207170048

Looks like CDP SDP JCP and RS will agree on a common minimum program tomorrow paving the way for more seat adjustments.  CDP making deals with JCP and RS in a few critical seats could make a difference in a dozen seats or so.  DPP nowhere to be seen although DPP does have de facto alliances with CDP and even JCP in the few seats where it has a good chance of winning.

[xelas81]

Is there reason why Komeito is in charge of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism?

[jaichind]

Is there reason why Komeito is in charge of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism?

I think it has been like this since the early 2000s that KP gets that ministry in any LDP-KP government.  The reason, I believe, is the KP focus on prefecture level elections.  Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism controls all the public works and over 4 million construction workers/contractors.  These connections come in handy in urban districts of prefecture elections which is what KP focuses on anyway.

[jaichind]

For the first time in a while the LDP Prez race will have a policy/ideological differences versus just personality differences.  

Kono  - Libertarian/Thatcherite
Kishida - Social moderate/Keynesian redistribution
Takaichi - Social Conservatism/Abenomics Fiscal-Monetary stimulus  

All three are PRC hawks but ironically Takaichi who is on the nationalist Right will most likely be the most flexible on PRC. Kono's father who was LDP leader in the early 1990s is a well known PRC dove and he will have to compensate for this.

I am sure if it was up to Kono he would prefer a political realignment where the  Keynesian redistribution wing of the LDP split off into another party and his LDP merges with JRP.

Kono already made his first policy adjustment.  Kono has been known for decades for his anti-nuclear power position but is now open to some reactivation of nuclear reactors.  He clearly knows that the LDP mainstream is pro-nuclear so he has to be seen as flexible on that issue.

[jaichind]

There is a movement in the ranks of junior LDP MPs for a free vote on LDP Prez versus going with what the factional leaders decide.  The more senior LDP MPs that control the factions are in safe LDP seats that survived the 2009 DPJ landslide.  The more junior LDP MPs are mostly from the class of 2012 and about have of them are vulnerable to a combination of Left Opposition-JCP alliance and/or anti-LDP wave.  Ergo the junior LDP MPs want to use their vote to ensure a LDP Prez that can shift votes in swing districts.  It is clear that they are fearful that LDP factional leaders who are in safe seats will do all sorts of backroom deals and hoist a candidate on them that could lead to them losing their seats.

The LDP faction leaders are aware of this and are holding back on making decisions that would then expose the fact that they lost control of their factional members.  Their strategy seems to be to wait and see how the race develops.   If Kono just runs away with the race then it would be easy for all the LDP factional leaders to jump on his bandwagon and avoid this conflict with their rank-and-file members. 

[jaichind]

Kono officially enters the race

His 2 slogans are

1. Move Japan forward
2. Change the LDP and change politics

As mentioned before #2 sounds like a return of Koizumi Senior

Also the "Change" of the LDP he is talking about is about making the LDP into a free market economic growth party.  As I mentioned before, I am sure if it was up to Kono he would have the statist economic intervention wing of the LDP split off and he lead a free market LDP with JRP merged into it.

Given this approach I suspect LDP will lose PR votes to DPP but gain PR votes from JRP if Kono led the LDP into the election.

[jaichind]

It seems pro-DPP Upper House MP 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) from 埼玉(Saitama) will be forming a new Centrist party.  上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) who was in the LDP in the 1980s but turned rebel and joined DPJ in 2000s via being in Ozawa's NPF in the 1990s and was an anti-LDP governor of 埼玉(Saitama) until 2019.  He then entered the Upper House as an independent with DPP support. 

It seems several pro-CDP and pro-DPP independents mostly of the Centrist and Center-Right variety will be joining this new party.  4 Lower house independent incumbents  will most likely join.  3 of them are part of the anti-LDP electoral alliance anyway.  It is not clear at all why this new party is not just part of DPP since the main function is duplicative of DPP.  Most likely this new party will have an electoral alliance with CDP and DPP although most likely not with JCP.

[Cassius]

To what degree is Kono more of a free-marketeer than Abe - after all the latter’s ‘third arrow’ was also aimed at deepening free market reform in order to turn Japan into a more ‘western style’ economy (via corporate governance reform, getting more women into the workforce, reducing the distinction between regular and non-regular workers, reducing trade protection etc)? Is it the case that Kono is less inclined to caution (like Abe) and more inclined to ‘move fast and break things’ and alienate LDP stalwarts (like Koizumi), when it comes to economic reform?

[jaichind]

To what degree is Kono more of a free-marketeer than Abe - after all the latter’s ‘third arrow’ was also aimed at deepening free market reform in order to turn Japan into a more ‘western style’ economy (via corporate governance reform, getting more women into the workforce, reducing the distinction between regular and non-regular workers, reducing trade protection etc)? Is it the case that Kono is less inclined to caution (like Abe) and more inclined to ‘move fast and break things’ and alienate LDP stalwarts (like Koizumi), when it comes to economic reform?

We do not really know.  Kono has never been in charge before.  But Abe is mostly above Constitutional revision and fiscal-monetary stimulus and mostly talked about structural reform as a way to justify  fiscal-monetary stimulus saying that you need to kickstart the economy to give time the supply side structural reform to work.  And of course under Abe the  supply side structural reform never took place.  Free market deregulation has been Kono's mantra for more than a decade so I have to assume he is more serious about than Abe.  Of course if he were to take over he will be constrained by other LDP  power bases, KP, the bureaucracy and overall macroeconomic environment anyway.

[jaichind]

Various LDP MPs are saying that general election most likely will be in the first half of Nov Kyodo reports.  Mostly likely Nov 7 or Nov 14.

[jaichind]

Asahi poll on LDP Prez (LDP supporters)

河野太郎(Kono Taro)          42%
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)     19%
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)       13%  (not in the race and most likely will not run)
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)    12% (backed by Abe, for now)
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)          1%   (could get into the race)

The impact of Abe is seen by Takaichi surging to 12%.  Most likely Ishiba will not enter the race on the premise that he has no chance of winning and he could trade in his support for Kono to win on the first round.  The argument against Ishiba doing that is that doing so remove any credibility he might have to win the top job in a post-Kono world.

[jaichind]

At this stage the best way for Kono to be stopped is for Ishiba  to run and keep Kono from winning a majority in the first round.  Kono relative weakness with MPs will make him vulnerable in the runoff.  Of course the reverse is true with the best way for Kono to win is for Ishiba  not to run and Kono to win a clear majority on the first round.

[jaichind]

Ishiba says he will not run.   Also Koizumi Junior just endorsed Kono.  Both positive news for Kono

[jaichind]

With both Suga and Koizumi Junior backing Kono we see 神奈川(Kanagawa) solidarity as all three are based in  神奈川(Kanagawa).

Also with Ishiba not running it is likely he will endorse Kono.  Unless Kishida comes up with a few tricks of his own we might see a Kono bandwagon develop into a first round majority victory.

[jaichind]

Jiji reports that LDP’s Hosoda Faction (largest faction and the one Abe de facto belongs to )to allow conscience vote for Leader

[jaichind]

Jiji reports that LDP’s Hosoda Faction (largest faction and the one Abe de facto belongs to )to allow conscience vote for Leader

Clarification: the (細田) Hosoda Faction is really calling for a free vote on Kishida or Takaichi.  So the (細田) Hosoda Faction is really a "anyone but Kono" position.  I guess what took place was Abe was pushing for Takaichi and many were concerned that her Far Right views will hurt the LDP in the general election if she became leader.  So the compromise is a free vote between Kishida or Takaichi.  As long as this holds this really lowers the chances of a Kone majority in the MP vote.  But Kono is very likely to win a majority by a good margin on the LDP chapter vote.

[jaichind]

So at this stage the LDP Prez battle has become a de facto Kono (anti-establishment) vs Abe (establishment) battle with Abe working behind the scenes trying to block a Kono victory.  Abe's strategy is clearly trying to deny Kono a first round victory where he can then maneuver a anti-Kono alliance in the second round.  Kono's strategy is to target more junior MPs of all factions plus his expected majority in the LDP chapter vote to try to win on the first round.

Kishida seems to want to run to the Left of Kono on economic policy (Keynesian redistribution)  and to the Right of Kono on foreign policy (focus on being a hawk on PRC.)  Kono is a hawk on PRC as well but his father is a noted PRC dove and Kishida clearly thinks Kono is vulernative on that topic.  Kono is mostly avoiding PRC topic so Kishida might be on to something.

Overall I think Kono is making a mistake by toning down his anti-nuclear position pro-female emperor position.  Yes his position is out of the LDP mainstream but compromising on those topic hurts his brand of not being a regular LDP politician.  I think even if Kono wins the Kono bonus for LDP in the general election has already been damaged. 

[jaichind]

It seems 野田聖子(Noda Seiko) has the 20 MPs signature to be able to run.  Bad news for Kono as this decreases his chances to win on the first round.  Most likely Abe is behind this. 

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA1461O0U1A910C2000000/

39 MPs attended Takaichi campaign kickoff with representatives 32 MPs also attending making 71 MPs out of the 383 MPs  openly backing her.  You got to figure Kishida with his own faction plus some other should at least that many MPs backing him.  Kono has a smaller base but will have the edge winning over the remaining MPs.

[Lachi]

It's official, Noda is in

https://twitter.com/oohamazaki/status/1438413291097788417?s=20

[jaichind]

It's official, Noda is in

https://twitter.com/oohamazaki/status/1438413291097788417?s=20

Clearly bad news for Kono as it reduced chances of him winning on first ballot. Also hurts Takaichi brand a bit about being the "women candidate."  Kishida clearly benefits as it increase the chance of a second round and also increase his chance of being in the second round vis-a-vis Takaichi.

[jaichind]

Kono comes out for legalization of gay marriage and legalization of separate surnames for married couples.  I guess he figured that there is no cost to offending to core LDP base since many of them will note vote for him anyway and whatever remains will be organized by Abe to be against him.  He seems to want to project himself as the PM that can win CDP and JRP votes in the genera election to lure MPs in marginal seats to come over to him.

[jaichind]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1syUoJ7PY7PXhluY1VF62aO7lKMzKl2-I6Xd2RxweyNA/htmlview?pru=AAABfBdWLVI*gLkrnbH_x8a_uMT4Jy41lQ#gid=0

Is a google doc that tracks LDP MPs public announcements on who they will back

Out of 383 LDP MPs 186 have made announcements and 197 have not.  Out of the 186 it is

河野太郎(Kono Taro)                 56
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)           66
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)          44
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)               20

So far it is not looking good for Kono to win majority on the first round.  He most likely will win a majority on the LDP chapter vote but most likely it will be a thin majority and nowhere enough to overcome his gap in the MP vote even if he eventually wins a plurality of the MP.

It seems we are headed to a Kono-Kishida  second round where I figure it is a 60/40 chance that Kishida wins.

[jaichind]

It seems that 野田聖子(Noda Seiko) is getting de facto support from 二階(Nikai) faction and non-aligned which represented a bloc of MPs that Kono was hoping to get.   Clearly 野田聖子(Noda Seiko) getting into the race is hurting Kono big time.  Kono has to think of ways to ply those MPs away from  野田聖子(Noda Seiko) and back toward him.  He has less than 2 weeks to do it.

[jaichind]

It seems on social issues 野田聖子(Noda Seiko) is trying out outflank Kono on the Left.  She came out for gay marriage, separate surnames of married couples, female emperor and promised a cabinet that is 50% female (I do not thing there are enough experience female LDP MPs for this to work.)  So if Kono is Libertarian on social issues Noda is going woke-progressive.

It is interesting that on social issues the two female candidates in the race Takaichi and Noda are taking the extreme flanks of the LDP with Takaichi as very socially conservative while Noda is going woke-progressive.  I suspect both are going more extreme than their real personal views in order to carve out a political identify.

In the meantime with a very wide political spectrum occupied by the LDP Prez candidates plus all sorts of spy vs spy stories of LDP kingpin maneuvers behind the scenes the opposition has been completely locked out of media coverage.  it is LDP 24/7 on the media with no mention of CDP JRP or JCP.  This will change after Sept 29th but for now the opposition has been complete marginalized.