Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Some info on how the PR list works.

Japan is split into 11 zones with each party putting up a PR list in each zone with seats allocated by the D'Hondt method.

The list allows for tiers from which winners will be assigned by priority based on how many seats a party wins in a zone.  Each tier can either be ONE PR only candidate OR MULTIPLE candidates that also running in districts.  If the seat allocation hits a tier that has multiple district candidates it allocates by skipping those that won their district seats and allocating winners based on "best loser" logic using the vote share as a % of the winning vote share as the metric to prioritize.

A sample list with results


Party in question won 3 seats in this zone
First tier is PR only candidate that of course is allocated as a winner
Second tier has 4 candidates that are also running in district seats.  One of the 4 won her seat outright and the remaining 3 lost their district seats and 2 of them won PR seats base on the vote share as a percentage of winning vote share as tie breaker.

One impact of this system is that if the loser of a district race is "revived" on the PR slate, he/she is also considered an incumbent for said district which means if the winner and the "revived" candidate runs again both are considered incumbents and have incumbent advantage which cancels each other out.

[jaichind]

PR voting intentions curve: LDP dipping a bit to 41 and CDP steady at 14


Note that there is a tendency for PR voting intentions to be artificially high for the ruling party after a new PM has taken over.    In mid June 2010 after 菅直人(Kan Naoto) took over as DPJ PM an Asahi had for the July 2010 Upper House election PR voting intentions at DPJ 41 LDP 17


When the election took place a month later the PR vote ended up being DPJ 39.0% LDP 33.4%

At this stage with LDP at 41 and KP at 5 I would expect the final LDP-KP PR vote share to be something like 45%-47% once you factor in the honeymoon effect.

[jaichind]

My chart on PR vote since 2000

              LDP            KP          LDP-KP    Center-Left  Third Pole   JCP    Anti-System  Anti-System
                                                                                                              Right            Left
2000      28.31%     12.97%    41.28%     34.71%     12.78%   11.23%      
2001      38.57%     14.96%    53.53%     24.60%     13.86%     7.91%      0.11%   
2003      34.96%     14.78%    49.73%     42.51%                     7.76%      
2004      30.03%     15.41%    45.45%     46.52%                     7.80%      0.23%   
2005      38.18%     13.25%    51.43%     36.51%       4.81%     7.25%      
2007      28.08%     13.18%    41.26%     45.80%       5.16%     7.48%      0.29%   
2009      26.73%     11.45%    38.18%     46.68%       7.46%     7.03%      0.65%   
2010      24.07%     13.07%    37.14%     36.11%     20.26%     6.10%      0.39%   
2012      27.62%     11.83%    39.45%     24.05%     30.01%     6.13%      0.36%   
2013      34.68%     14.22%    48.90%     19.20%     21.86%     9.68%      0.36%   
2014      33.11%     13.71%    46.82%     22.72%     18.40%   11.37%      0.49%          0.20%
2016      35.91%     13.52%    49.44%     26.46%     11.55%   10.74%      0.65%          1.16%
2017      33.28%     12.51%    45.79%     38.93%       6.63%     7.90%      0.52%          0.22%
2019      35.37%     13.05%    48.43%     29.74%       9.80%     8.95%      2.38%          0.70%

LDP and KP are clear.  
Center-Left are (DPJ DP SDP PLP RS HP CDP etc etc)
Third pole are (LP NCP YP NPR JRP PFG etc etc)
Anti-System Right are (HRP PNHK etc etc)
Anti-System Left are (EP etc etc)
 
In 2017 HP was really a 2/3 Center-Left 1/3 Third pole party but I counted it as a Center-Left party.  I expect LDP-KP PR vote share to be between its 2017 and 2019 results.

[jaichind]

Rural 群馬(Gunma) is the best example of LDP political dynasties.  群馬(Gunma) has 5 districts.  The LDP candidates in 4 of them are

群馬(Gunma) 1st: Grandson of a LDP PM, son of a LDP MP
群馬(Gunma) 3rd: Grandson of a LDP MP, son of a LDP MP
群馬(Gunma) 4th: Grandson of a LDP PM, son of a LDP PM
群馬(Gunma) 5th: Grandson of a LDP MP, son of a LDP PM

4 out of 5 candidates have between them 4 LDP PMs in their families.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Rural 群馬(Gunma) is the best example of LDP political dynasties.  群馬(Gunma) has 5 districts.  The LDP candidates in 4 of them are

群馬(Gunma) 1st: Grandson of a LDP PM, son of a LDP MP
群馬(Gunma) 3rd: Grandson of a LDP MP, son of a LDP MP
群馬(Gunma) 4th: Grandson of a LDP PM, son of a LDP PM
群馬(Gunma) 5th: Grandson of a LDP MP, son of a LDP PM

4 out of 5 candidates have between them 4 LDP PMs in their families.

Gunma-5 is a daughter, not a son.
Good point nonetheless.
Maybe one day Gunma-2 will be represented by Toshiro Ino's son.

[jaichind]

Rural 群馬(Gunma) is the best example of LDP political dynasties.  群馬(Gunma) has 5 districts.  The LDP candidates in 4 of them are

群馬(Gunma) 1st: Grandson of a LDP PM, son of a LDP MP
群馬(Gunma) 3rd: Grandson of a LDP MP, son of a LDP MP
群馬(Gunma) 4th: Grandson of a LDP PM, son of a LDP PM
群馬(Gunma) 5th: Grandson of a LDP MP, son of a LDP PM

4 out of 5 candidates have between them 4 LDP PMs in their families.

Gunma-5 is a daughter, not a son.
Good point nonetheless.
Maybe one day Gunma-2 will be represented by Toshiro Ino's son.

Good catch.  Yes for the 5th district it is a women.  In fact it is Drill Obuchi I wrote about a while ago.  This is where years ago as investigators arrived at her office in an illegal campaign finance investigation her assistant drilled the floppy disks of all her records making them all unreadable.   

[Logical]

While not exactly dynastic, something I notice when reading bios of JCP candidates is that a lot of them are related by blood or marriage to fellow JCP member/politicians. In fact it's not uncommon for them to boast that their parents and spouses are active in the party as well.

[jaichind]

北海道(Hokkaido) PR poll by Hokkaido Times.  Comparison to 2019 PR poll by the same paper
 
            2021        2019           2019 Result
LDP        30            34                32.3%
KP           5              9                 11.7%
JRP          6             4                   7.8%
CDP       23            21                 20.9%
JCP          7             7                  11.6%

Note that in 2019 a popular pro-LDP governor was running for the Upper House seat here which must have pushed up LDP-KP support in the polling and to a less extent the results.  This time it is a reversion to the mean.

[jaichind]

Next Sunday a week before the general election there will be 2 Upper House by-elections.  One in 静岡(Shizuoka) and 山口(Yamaguchi).  In both cases the LDP incumbent resigned.  In  静岡(Shizuoka) the LDP incumbent resigned to run in a losing effort to challenge the anti-LDP incumbent governor.  In   山口(Yamaguchi) the LDP incumbent resigned to run in the Lower House.  He is actually the #2 in the Kishida faction and wanted to get into the lower house so he can be in line to take over from Kishida as the leader of the faction and a future PM candidate for the faction since it is customary that the PM comes from the Lower House MP.

LDP will face JCP with implicit CDP support in 山口(Yamaguchi) so it was be an easy victory.  In 静岡(Shizuoka) CDP-DPP formed an alliance to back an independent so the JCP will run a separate candidate.  Given the opposition split the LDP will win in  静岡(Shizuoka) but if the vote share gap is small it will be a bad sign for the LDP in the Lower House election a week to come. 


Kyodo poll has LDP landslide in 山口(Yamaguchi) as expected


But in   静岡(Shizuoka)  it has LDP with the edge but the CDP-DPP backed independent not far behind

[jaichind]

Leaders of all 9 parties attended an internet debate on how to raise wages.  The 9 parties are LDP CDP KP JRP JCP DPP RS SDP and PNHK.    PNHK's party name changed so many times I am just going to call them PNHK.  I got to give credit to the leaders of the larger parties for attending a debate where leaders of smaller parties are allowed to attend and not be afraid of "giving them a platform."

 

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll

PR vote
LDP       29.6
KP          4.7
JRP         3.9
DPP        0.7
CDP        9.7
RS          0.5
SDP        0.5
JCP         4.8

Kishida Cabinet approval/disapproval 55.9/32.8

Desired result for election
Ruling parties and Opposition parties neck-to-neck        45.2
Ruling parties significant lead over Opposition parties     36.2
Opposition parties significant lead over Ruling parties     13.9

It seems the trend it toward LDP-KP losing seats but not enough to lose power.

[jaichind]

In the 289 district seats I count  845 candidates.  They are

277 LDP
9 KP
2 LDP backed independents
2 pro-LDP candidates in Tokyo 15th
214 CDP
21 DPP
105 JCP
9 SDP
94 JRP
1 pro-JRP independent
12 RS
9 Opposition backed independents
29 PNHK
7 pro-Opposition rebels
15 LDP rebels
7 Minor Left candidates
8 Minor Right candidates
24 Minor candidates

Some of the Opposition backed independents are actually running against JCP candidates just like a bunch of CDP candidates.  The way I distinguish between an Opposition backed independent and a pro-Opposition rebel would be: Does the CDP voter in district see the candidate as the clear alternative to LDP versus someone jumping in trying to win the non-JCP Opposition vote given the fact that the CDP is not running in the district.

[jaichind]

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/sangiin/20211017-OYT1T50133/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Yomiuri poll has it neck to neck in 静岡(Shizuoka) Upper House by-election next Sunday with a slight edge to CDP-DPP. This is a big surprise and if LDP loses next Sunday here it will be huge blow a week before the general election.  

[jaichind]

週刊現代(Shūkan Gendai) has 4 separate projections including from analysts 松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru) and 有馬晴海 (Arima Harumi),  The 4 projections has LDP at 256 247 213 216 respectively. 

有馬晴海 (Arima Harumi)'s projection makes the least sense given the divergence of a poor PR vote for LDP but a landslide in district seats.  It seems he is expecting the JRP and DPP PR vote to tactically vote for LDP.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/oohamazakitakuma/20211018-00263581

Political analyst for Yahoo News 大濱﨑卓真 (Ohamazaki Takuma) has it at LDP 236 seats although with 10 independents at least half must be pro-LDP independents.  



             District         PR          Total
LDP          166            70          236
KP               8            21            29
JRP            13            17            30
DPP             5              4              9
CDP           85            48          133
RS              0              0              0
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             16           17
Ind.           10                           10 (most likely 5 pro-LDP 5 opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

[Logical]

Nikkan Sports also has 2 projections out. The first by journalist Kakutani Koicihi. His is the first I found to predict 2 JCP district seats.
https://www.nikkansports.com/general/nikkan/news/202110180000080.html


And a second by journalist Suzuki Tetsuo. I'm not sure where Reiwa is supposed to win a district seat though.
https://www.nikkansports.com/general/nikkan/news/202110180000082.html

[jaichind]

The media mega poll was suppose to come out this weekend but nothing showed up.  I guess it will come out middle of the week ?

[jaichind]

The 2 Nikkan Sports projections seems very problematic.

The first one has JRP PR at 8 ? seats.  In 2017 which was their nadir (HP ate into their vote share) they managed 11 PR seats. 

And yes, 2 district seats for JCP.  The most likely, although still unlikely, second JCP seat would be 京都(Kyoto) 1st.  The LDP incumbent is not running for re-election and it is a 3 way LDP vs JCP vs JRP battle which the most fertile ground for JCP.    The way JCP won 沖縄(Okinawa) 1st in 2014 and 2017 is due to a 3 way battle of LDP vs JCP vs JRP where the Center-Left vote consolidates around JCP and the anti-JCP vote is split.  As a result the JCP does have a chance in 京都(Kyoto) 1st but it will be an uphill battle.

As for the second projection with RS winning a district seat.  It is a very long shot but the only chance I see is 滋賀(Shiga) 3rd where it is LDP vs JRP vs JCP vs RS.  The RS candidate is a sitting ex-CDP MP from 岡山(Okayama) who was not re-nominated due to a scandal of him breaking COVID-19 lockdown at an adult entertainment tea shop.   He then joined RS who ran him in 滋賀(Shiga) 3rd.  At least he has name recognition and if JCP underperforms he could have a Hail Mary type of chance.  I suspect this projection was made when it was assumed that RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) was going to run in  東京(Tokyo) 8th.  In which case this projection is really out of date.

[jaichind]

Japan National Press Club debate of the 9 party leaders (LDP CDP KP JRP JCP DPP RS SDP PNHK).  Kishida is the odd man out for coming out against

a) LGBT protection bill (I am surprised KP came out for it)
b) Married couples be allowed to have separate surnames

[Logical]

We do have a new NHK poll however. (Oct 15-17)
https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/shijiritsu/

Party ID (changes from Oct 8-10 poll)
LDP   38.8 (-2.4)
KP      3.9 (-0.2)
CDP   6.6 (+0.5)
JCP    2.8 (+0.1)
JRP    2.3 (+0.5)
DPP   1.0 (+0.3)
SDP   0.6 (-)
RS     0.6 (+0.4)
NP     0.1 (-)
None 36.2 (+0.1)

Cabinet approvals
Approve     46 (-3)
Disapprove 28 (+4)

[jaichind]

NHK poll also has 56% of those polled certain to vote up 4% from last week.  In 2014 election day had a snowstorm and the 2017 election day had a hurricane which drove down turnout.  This time it is not clear the weather will come to the help for the LDP.

[jaichind]

Table on total number of candidates

1051 candidates in all. 857 district candidates and 194 PR only candidates.  I am confused on how there could be 14 minor party PR only candidates when only 9 parties have PR lists.

[Logical]

Table on total number of candidates

1051 candidates in all. 857 district candidates and 194 PR only candidates.  I am confused on how there could be 14 minor party PR only candidates when only 9 parties have PR lists.

There's a bunch of minor parties that also runs in the PR bloc like far right Japan First Party and New Party Yamato, both in Tokyo.
https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/shugiin/2021/

[Logical]

https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/life/296251
"Leaked" LDP internals by Nikkan Gendai. No topline numbers but they show districts where LDP candidates are neck and neck with their opponents. According to the article itself, JRP is slightly ahead in Osaka 4th, 7th ,9th, 12th and 19th district. The opposition candidate is ahead in Saitama 1st. Most surprising thing is Ozawa Ichiro's name in this list though. It might explain why he chose to spend the first day campaigning in his district instead of touring the country for the first time since he was first elected in 1969.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/70eb8071a74b8ac28d547697ef24539d6100df66

[jaichind]

Table on total number of candidates

1051 candidates in all. 857 district candidates and 194 PR only candidates.  I am confused on how there could be 14 minor party PR only candidates when only 9 parties have PR lists.

There's a bunch of minor parties that also runs in the PR bloc like far right Japan First Party and New Party Yamato, both in Tokyo.
https://www.nhk.or.jp/senkyo/database/shugiin/2021/

I figured it was something like that.  I just thought there would be some standards you have to pass to get onto the PR slate and that these parties most likely would not make it.  The threshold must be lower than I thought.