Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Asahi magazine had two separate projections from two sperate analysists that are very similar.  Hopefully I find their seat-by-seat projection.

They have LDP at 239 and 243 separately which is just more herding with the rest of the projections. One of them has JCP with a second district seat which I assume has to be 京都(Kyoto) 1st.  Both has 7 independent winners which should be 4-5 of them are pro-LDP so you can add 4-5 to the LDP totals they have.

[jaichind]

https://news.livedoor.com/article/detail/21052647/

Abe opens his own Youtube channel where he will post his policy views and ideas.  Within 12 hours of debut he already has 100K subscribers.

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/elections-japan-tokyo-campaigns-north-korea-9bdae7e795b185b7bd91fd18c38336f6

"Japan's PM Interrupts Campaign as N Korea Test-fires Missile"

Something like this also took place during to 2016 Upper House election.  DPRK always seems to show up with actions that help LDP during elections.  Something like this will highlight foreign policy as an issue which clearly helps LDP.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/life/296251
"Leaked" LDP internals by Nikkan Gendai. No topline numbers but they show districts where LDP candidates are neck and neck with their opponents. According to the article itself, JRP is slightly ahead in Osaka 4th, 7th ,9th, 12th and 19th district. The opposition candidate is ahead in Saitama 1st. Most surprising thing is Ozawa Ichiro's name in this list though. It might explain why he chose to spend the first day campaigning in his district instead of touring the country for the first time since he was first elected in 1969.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/70eb8071a74b8ac28d547697ef24539d6100df66

I looked through the list.  First the article claims it is a list of 61 seats but the image only has 57 seats.  There are a bunch of what I consider fairly safe CDP seats on the list as well as a few safe LDP seats on the list.  Throwing those aside the rest are evenly divided between lean LDP and lean Opposition seats and sort of implies a LDP seat count of around 245 or so.

[jaichind]

JX which I always found to be historically most accurate in filtering out the pro-incumbent bias in most polls latest PR poll has the Kishida honeymoon wearing off but LDP-KP in solid shape to win at least 45% of the PR vote.

LDP   33.1 (-3.5)
KP      6.6 (+1.5)
PNHK  0.5 (+0.1)
JRP     9.0 (+0.9)
DPP    2.6 (+0.7)
CDP  21.0 (+2.7)
RS     1.4 (-0.3)
SDP   1.3 (+0.3)
JCP    8.2 (+1.0)

Note that since seat allocation are at each zone's level there are going to be pressure on small parties like DPP RS and SDP PR voters to tactically vote since in most zones these parties are not likely to get enough votes to win seats.

[Logical]

Asahi magazine had two separate projections from two sperate analysists that are very similar.  Hopefully I find their seat-by-seat projection.

They have LDP at 239 and 243 separately which is just more herding with the rest of the projections. One of them has JCP with a second district seat which I assume has to be 京都(Kyoto) 1st.  Both has 7 independent winners which should be 4-5 of them are pro-LDP so you can add 4-5 to the LDP totals they have.

It's here :
https://dot.asahi.com/print_image/index.html?photo=2021101900043_2&image=3
Nothing really stands out to me. It does appear that in the absence of reliable polls the analysts are choosing not to stray from the consensus.

[Logical]

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/shuinsen/2021/votematch/#/
2021 Japanese vote compass thingy from Asahi. My results:

DPP 75%
CDP 72%
KP 68%
NP 68%
JRP 66%
LDP 62%
JCP 60%
RS 59%
SDP 56%

[Lachi]

How do the circles and triangles work in the seat by seat projections? I cannot for the life of me work them out.

[jaichind]

How do the circles and triangles work in the seat by seat projections? I cannot for the life of me work them out.

The idea is White circle > white triangle > black triangle > X

So the projection is for the candidate that has the highest of the 4 types of symbols.  Usually to denote a tossup there are two (or even three for 3 way tossup) white triangles on top of the candidates.

[jaichind]

Intense campaign schedule 茨城(Ibaraki) 7th incumbent MP 中村喜四郎(Nakamura Kishirō).  He has been an MP since 1976 as a LDP MP until the 1990s when he became a pro-LDP independent as he was leading a rebel LDP faction at the local level of 茨城(Ibaraki).  Starting in 2005 he and the local LDP had an all out war and the LDP started to run candidates against him to no avail.  After 2017 he decided to join CDP so he will run as CDP candidate this year.

It seems he plans to give 20+ speeches each day at different locations of his district.  I suspect by the end of the election campaign every voter would have had the chance to hear him speak.

[jaichind]

Zakzak projections for Tokyo and Osaka

Tokyo: 11 LDP, 1 pro-LDP independent (who is ex-opposition), 1 JCP, 12 CDP

Deviation from what I would call CW is
5th: They have LDP ahead when CW would claim tossup but CDP ahead
8th: They have CDP ahead when CW is evenly split on this (this is Ishihara's district)
12th: This is the big shock where they have JCP ahead of KP when CW has KP winning for sure
16th: They have CDP ahead when CW would claim tossup but LDP ahead
23rd: They have CDP ahead when CW would claim tossup but LDP ahead


Osaka: 11 JRP, 3 LDP, 4 KP, 1 CDP

Mostly matches CW except for
11th: They have JRP winning when the CW would claim 3 way tossup (JRP, CDP, LDP) but CDP more likely to win.


None of these projections are surprising other than the shock JCP win over KP.  Overall if this comes to pass it does show the general underperformance of LDP in urban due to Kishida.  If Kono was leading the LDP these results will look very different.  On the other hand it is possible that with Kishida in charge LDP will overperform in rural and Southern areas.  We will see.

[jaichind]

https://www.asahi.com/senkyo/shuinsen/2021/votematch/#/
2021 Japanese vote compass thingy from Asahi. My results:

DPP 75%
CDP 72%
KP 68%
NP 68%
JRP 66%
LDP 62%
JCP 60%
RS 59%
SDP 56%

Yahoo has one too
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/senkyo/match/party?y=2021

For the Yahoo survey I am

PNHK   50%
LDP      40%
JRP      40%
CDP     30%
DPP     30%
RS       30%
SDP     30%
JCP      20%
KP       10%

I think on issues of nuclear power I am more with LDP but on economic issues I am closer to JRP with the result that I am not really aligned with any party.  Economic policy is what is most important to me ergo in this election I am for JRP.

As for the Asahi I get

JRP      60%
KP       53%
DPP     53%
PNHK   52%
LDP     52%
CDP     47%
JCP      37%
SDP     36%

The questions in this survey are more specific about economic policy so my JRP lean is more discernible

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Asahi
KP 81%
DPP 67%
LDP 66%
CDP 61%
JRP 61%
PNHK 57%
RS 46%
JCP 39%
SDP 38%

Yahoo!Japan
LDP 50%
CDP 40%
PNHK 40%
KP 30%
JRP 30%
JCP 20%
RS 20%
SDP 20%
DPP 10%

[jaichind]

Asahi poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval 41(-4)/26(+6)
41 approval is not very good but there are many on the fence.


46% want LDP led government, 22% want CDP led government


View of last 4 years of LDP-KP government
35% positive
43% negative


PR vote

LDP   38 (-3)
KP      7 (+2)
JRP     7(+1)
CDP   13(--)
JCP     5(+1)



PR vote of independents

LDP    22
KP       4
JRP      6
CDP    12
JCP      4


Overall message.  No enthusiastic  support of Kishida led LDP but voters wary of a CDP alternative. 

[jaichind]

The Asahi poll coming out means the various mega poll and media projections are coming soon.  Perhaps tonight.

[jaichind]

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval curve.  Something like 48/28.  Lots of undecided.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri first out with their seat projection based on the mega poll

LDP   231-241
KP       31-36
JRP      30-32
DPP       8-10
CDP   132-137
RS         ~2
SDP       ~2
JCP      17-20
Ind      10-13



Independents at 10-13 is very surprising high

[jaichind]

Nikkei says

LDP-KP ahead in 50% of the 289 district seats
Opposition ahead in 30% of the 289 district seats
LDP-KP and JRP doing well on the PR vote.

If we assume from this that LDP-KP split the district tossups with the Opposition that would be around 174 district seats for LDP-KP.  If LDP-KP did well in the PR vote lets figure they win 95 out of 176 PR seats.  That would put LDP-KP seat count to be around 270 seats which is about where Yomiuri has them.

[jaichind]

So far the first domino of the LDP significant victory to landslide does not fall.

In 2013 2014 2016 2017 and 2019 the media mega poll all showed a significant LDP victory to LDP landslide.  That ended up suppressing turnout with the marginal anti-LDP voter.  The polls ended up overestimating LDP somewhat but the lower turnout ensured the LDP solid win to landslide.

This time the mega poll is not showing a large LDP win but a small one.  This should not end up suppressing turnout.

[jaichind]

Nikkei analysis of district seats

140 LDP-KP vs One Center Left Opposition (CDP DPP JCP SDP RS) candidate w/o JRP: LDP-KP has as slight edge
69 LDP-KP vs One Center Left Opposition candidate vs JRP: Center-Left Opposition has an edge over LDP-KP with JRP winning a bunch of seat (in Osaka)
76 LDP-KP vs Multiple Center Left Opposition candidate (with or without JRP): LDP-KP sweeps there seats with the Center Left Opposition and JRP winning a few seats.


One key takeaway is the second category of LDP-KP vs One Center Left Opposition candidate vs JRP seems to indicate that outside of Osaka the JRP is cutting more into the LDP vote which  most likely are in urban seats where the Kono vote might shift to JRP in response to the rural and Southern based Kishida.

[jaichind]

Some Yomiuri surprise district poll results

山形(Yamagata) 1st
2017
LDP   57.3%
HP     34.3%
JCP     8.4%

2021 poll
LDP     46
CDP    44


東京(Tokyo) 8th - Ishihara's district
2017
LDP    39.2%
CDP    30.0%
HP      16.2%
JCP      8.8%
Ind.     4.7%  (DPJ background)
Ind.     1.2%  (extreme Left)

2021 poll
CDP    35
LDP    29
JRP      8


静岡(Shizuoka) 8th
2017
LDP    50.1%
HP     39.3%
JCP     9.8%

2021 poll
CDP     46
LDP     42




These poll results are not good news for LDP.  It seems CDP and JCP might have achieved 1+1 > 2 in some districts.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll for 北海道(Hokkaido) has CDP 9 LDP 3.  CW has it as CDP 8 LDP 4.  The difference seems to be 北海道(Hokkaido) 4th which the poll also has it as neck-to-neck with a tiny edge for CDP.   The poll also confirms that KP is behind in 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th.

[jaichind]

I looked over the PR list of the different parties. CDP has a better long term strategy than LDP. 

LDP burned up 12 slots to accommodate various LDP rebels to get them to withdraw from the various district races.

CDP did not accommodate any.  This means that every PR winner for CDP will become a de facto incumbent for the district they ran from.  So if CDP wins, say 135 seats which would be a reasonable median guess, then in the next general election CDP will have out of 289 seats, 135 MPs that can run with incumbent advantage.   This makes it a lot more likelier that the CDP can win more district seats in the next election.

The LDP, on the other hand, will now have 12 PR MPs that will be looking to run in the district seat in the next election creating more rebel trouble for the LDP.

The CDP choose to stare down their rebels and go for a long term strategy for growth.  The LDP took a short term strategy to avoid conflict but will hurt them on the long run.

[jaichind]

Mainichi survey for Osaka is a disaster for LDP-KP  It has JRP 13 KP 3 LDP 1 CDP 2.  CDP loses one of its seats to JRP in a 3 way race but is slightly ahead of KP in one of the 4 seats KP currently.  LDP loses all its seats except for one.  Even in the 2012 JRP tidal wave in Osaka it only won 12 seats.

[jaichind]

If you go seat by seat from the Yomiuri writeup you get

             District         PR          Total
LDP          163            68          231
KP               8            25            33
JRP            12            17            29
DPP             5              4              9
CDP           89            44          133
RS              0              2              2
SDP            1              1              2
JCP             1             15           16
Ind.           10                           10 (5 pro-LDP 5 pro-Opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

LDP barely misses majority although with the 5 pro-LDP independents at least 3 will be retroactively nominated to get the LDP the majority.  Also among the tossups there are a good deal more CDP ahead than LDP ahead so this projection is most likely a floor for LDP and they should win 3-4 more district seats that this chart.

Still to be in the 230s is a disappointing projection for Kishida.