Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

Looks like Abe will support 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae).   She is for sure close to Abe on the Constitutional revisionist Right.   But her chances are not high even with Abe support.  I guess Abe is negative enough on Kono to just support his ideological kindred spirit.

[jaichind]

Kyodo News poll on best PM

Kono                               31.9%
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)      26.6%  (not in the race yet but might enter)
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)    18.8%
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)          4.4%  (could get into the race)
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)     4.0% (backed by Abe, for now)

LDP supporters only
Kono                               37.1%
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)      23.3%  (not in the race yet but might enter)
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)    20.7%

岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)'s support looks pretty solid and if he can play factional politics correctly he can force Kono into the second round where Kono's edge with LDP party members will be nullified since the second round will only have MP voting (this is how Abe edged out Ishiba back in 2012.)

野田聖子(Noda Seiko), who is also a women like 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae), was going to run in the 2015 LDP Prez race as a token opposition to Abe but could not get 20 MPs to back her.  Looks like she might try again this time.  Her main problem is her husband used to be a member of the Yakuza and if she becomes a serious candidate this will be dragged out.

Abe backed 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) has her own problems.  It appears she took a photo with the leader of the a Japan  neo-Nazi party leader (the name of the party is National Socialist Japanese Workers Party (NSJAP)) back in the early 2010s and the photo appeared in that Party's blog along with pro-Hitler articles.  It became an issue back in 2014 when 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) was made a minister but it blew over when the 2014 mid-term election was called.  If her candidacy takes off with Abe's backing this picture will be back to become an issue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Which is more of a political liability, likely speaking? A picture with neo-nazis, or a ex-Yakuza husband?

[jaichind]

LDP Prez election will have 766 votes.  383 LDP MPs each gets a vote and 383 LDP prefecture chapter votes allocated pro rated around the population of said prefecture.  If no one gets a majority then a second round of top two vote winners will be held with only MPs voting.

LDP factions
細田(Hosoda)        97 -> most likely split between Kono, Kishida and Takaichi
麻生(Aso)             54 -> most likely split between Kono and Kishida
竹下(Takesh**ta)     52 -> unknown and great balancer of this election
二階(Nikai)           47 -> mostly for Ishiba assuming he runs
岸田(Kishida)        46 -> clearly Kishida
石破(Ishiba)          16 -> surprisingly split between Ishiba and Kono
石原(Ishihara)       10 -> mostly for Kishida
谷垣(Tanigaki)       15 -> (a group aligned with former LDP Prez Tanigaki) -> mostly for Kishida
Suga                     8 -> (not a faction but a group aligned with Suga) -> mostly for Kono
Non-Aligned         38 -> most likely lean Kono as this group tend to be younger

A good part of of the reason Kono is not getting the full support of his 麻生(Aso) faction has to be the generational threat of the 麻生(Aso) faction old guard that feel about a younger Kono leading the faction.  Of course that same dynamic helps Kono to appeal to younger MPs in other factions.

Kono clearly will do well in the LDP chapter prefecture vote.   If Ishiba runs he will clearly cut into Kono's lead in the prefecture vote.  But if Ishiba runs and does well and he ends up in the second round against Kono then Abe will for sure swing around Kono to defeat Ishiba.  Kono's worst case scenario would be for Ishiba to get into the race, cut into his LDP Prefecture chapter vote but does poorly in the MP vote leading to a Kono vs Kishida second round where it will be a generational battle that Kono might lose.

[jaichind]

Which is more of a political liability, likely speaking? A picture with neo-nazis, or a ex-Yakuza husband?

Hard to say.  I would say neither issue are really big deals at the minister level.  I think for PM both are problems mostly due to foreign embarrassment factor.  I would think the Yakuza factor is worse since the picture can be explained away as "I did not know who he was."

[jaichind]

Looking into 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) some more I found out that she was married to a LDP MP for a while and got divorced in 2017.  It seems that they got divorced because she became too Right wing for him.  Both her and her ex-husband were LDP rebels in the early 1990s and spent some time in Ozawa's NFP in the late 1990s before going back to LDP.

This is one general pattern in Oriental electoral democracies (Japan ROK ROC.)  All women politicians are   

a) never married, no children
b) married to another politician with no children
c) joined politics after their children are grown up usually as a succor to another male politician (father or husband) 

高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) married her fellow LDP MP husband in her 40s and well past her child bearing age.  Another possible LDP women aspirant 野田聖子(Noda Seiko) also was married to a fellow LDP MP well past her child bearing age before getting divorced.  She then married this ex-Yakuza current husband.

The reason for this trend to be that in Orientals democracies

a) politics tend to be transactional and non-ideological which means that an up and coming politician have no personal time
b) have a clearly pattern of female hypergamy so a capable women that became an up and coming politician will be looking for a husband with greater career success.  But these same possible husband are looking to raise a family and that is pretty much impossible with a politician for a wife who has no personal time.

I think at the township level there are some room for married with young children women politicians but anything above that becomes extremely rare.

[Conservatopia]

Isn't there the risk that Kono becomes LDP's Corbyn?

I know he is a moderate but isn't he a bit outside the mainstream for the LDP particularly on the economy?

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll on best next PM.  The numbers for the more critical LDP supporters (since that will map directly to the prefecture chapter vote)



Kono                               30%
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)      21%  (not in the race yet but looks likely to enter)
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)    12%
Koizumi Junior                 10%
Abe                                   8%
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)     5% (backed by Abe, for now)
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)          1%  (could get into the race)

Not sure what is the point of polling Koizumi Junior or Abe since they will not run.  Abe's support will be scattered but lean 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae).  Koizumi Junior support most likely lean Kono.

[jaichind]

Isn't there the risk that Kono becomes LDP's Corbyn?

I know he is a moderate but isn't he a bit outside the mainstream for the LDP particularly on the economy?

There is some risk of Kono turning off core rural LDP voters with his more explicit free market approach.  Another danger is his anti-nuclear power position might drive some LDP voters toward DPP. On the flip side if there is a turnout surge Kono is in a good position to capture a good chunk of the marginal voters since most of them are urban anti-nuclear anti-transactional politics voters that otherwise will vote CDP or JRP once they do turn out.  Kono is also a good fit to capture some JRP voter as well.  So in a low turnout election a Kono led LDP will underperform but in a high turnout election a Kono let LDP will overperform. 

This video is long but is a speech Kono gave in English to a Japanese audience that outlines his political views back in 2012.  Since it was to a Japanese audience and not a foreign audience you get a better sense of his domestic policy views.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVfxZ8ojC3Q&list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't there the risk that Kono becomes LDP's Corbyn?

I know he is a moderate but isn't he a bit outside the mainstream for the LDP particularly on the economy?

There is some risk of Kono turning off core rural LDP voters with his more explicit free market approach.  Another danger is his anti-nuclear power position might drive some LDP voters toward DPP. On the flip side if there is a turnout surge Kono is in a good position to capture a good chunk of the marginal voters since most of them are urban anti-nuclear anti-transactional politics voters that otherwise will vote CDP or JRP once they do turn out.  Kono is also a good fit to capture some JRP voter as well.  So in a low turnout election a Kono led LDP will underperform but in a high turnout election a Kono let LDP will overperform. 

This video is long but is a speech Kono gave in English to a Japanese audience that outlines his political views back in 2012.  Since it was to a Japanese audience and not a foreign audience you get a better sense of his domestic policy views.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fVfxZ8ojC3Q&list=FLBZqnIPPjMvxL1cq6anDjYw

Some of this stuff really gives me Koizumi Senior vibes.

[jaichind]

JNN poll on best PM.  Similar result as Yomiuri poll.  They also choose to include Koizumi Junior and Abe for some unknown reason.  I suspect JNN and Yomiuri  used the same pollster and they they own internal adjustments.

For the more critical LDP supporters
 
Kono                               25%
石破茂(Ishiba Shigeru)      20%  (not in the race yet but looks likely to enter)
岸田文雄(Kishida Fumio)    17%
Koizumi Junior                   8%
Abe                                   8%
高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae)     6% (backed by Abe, for now)
野田聖子(Noda Seiko)          2%  (could get into the race)
Suga                                 2% (not sure why he is even included)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the chance there is an Ishiba-Kono pact of sorts?

[Logical]

Looking into 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) some more I found out that she was married to a LDP MP for a while and got divorced in 2017.  It seems that they got divorced because she became too Right wing for him.  Both her and her ex-husband were LDP rebels in the early 1990s and spent some time in Ozawa's NFP in the late 1990s before going back to LDP.

This is one general pattern in Oriental electoral democracies (Japan ROK ROC.)  All women politicians are   

a) never married, no children
b) married to another politician with no children
c) joined politics after their children are grown up usually as a succor to another male politician (father or husband) 

高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) married her fellow LDP MP husband in her 40s and well past her child bearing age.  Another possible LDP women aspirant 野田聖子(Noda Seiko) also was married to a fellow LDP MP well past her child bearing age before getting divorced.  She then married this ex-Yakuza current husband.

The reason for this trend to be that in Orientals democracies

a) politics tend to be transactional and non-ideological which means that an up and coming politician have no personal time
b) have a clearly pattern of female hypergamy so a capable women that became an up and coming politician will be looking for a husband with greater career success.  But these same possible husband are looking to raise a family and that is pretty much impossible with a politician for a wife who has no personal time.

I think at the township level there are some room for married with young children women politicians but anything above that becomes extremely rare.

Noda Seiko is actually very interesting as she had a child very late in her life and in the middle of her career. She became pregnant at the age of 49 through an American egg donor (egg donor is still banned and frowned upon in Japan as far as I know). Her son has severe developmental disabilities and required many surgeries before being discharged from hospital.

One of the new CDP Tokyo assembly member is an unmarried single mother. I think there are a few more young mothers in the house now but most of them are related by marriage or blood to male politicians.

[jaichind]

LDP PR curve (green) already rising in response to the news of Suga stepping down mostly from undecided and a bit from JRP and KP.  I expect this trend to continue for the next couple of weeks until a new LDP Prez is elected.

[jaichind]

What is the chance there is an Ishiba-Kono pact of sorts?

I do not see why it would take place.  Over the years the power of the PM have grown relative to the cabinet members as well as the faction leaders.  So everyone want to be top dog and no one is interested in being being number 2 when number 2 does not count for much.  Worse,  Ishiba and Kono do not have large personal bases within the LDP MPs and are basing their candidacy on personal charisma.  You cannot have two of these types of people in a political alliance. 

[jaichind]

Noda Seiko is actually very interesting as she had a child very late in her life and in the middle of her career. She became pregnant at the age of 49 through an American egg donor (egg donor is still banned and frowned upon in Japan as far as I know). Her son has severe developmental disabilities and required many surgeries before being discharged from hospital.

One of the new CDP Tokyo assembly member is an unmarried single mother. I think there are a few more young mothers in the house now but most of them are related by marriage or blood to male politicians.

Holy smokes.  I recall reading this about a women LDP MP but did not realize it was Noda Seiko.  Good thing she has zero chance of winning LDP Prez.  If she became LDP Prez there will be a freak out at KP high command.  The KP is de facto controlled by the socially conservative Soka Gakkai married women division.  There is no way they would let something like this slide and demand KP high command do something about this state of affairs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Noda Seiko is actually very interesting as she had a child very late in her life and in the middle of her career. She became pregnant at the age of 49 through an American egg donor (egg donor is still banned and frowned upon in Japan as far as I know). Her son has severe developmental disabilities and required many surgeries before being discharged from hospital.

One of the new CDP Tokyo assembly member is an unmarried single mother. I think there are a few more young mothers in the house now but most of them are related by marriage or blood to male politicians.

Holy smokes.  I recall reading this about a women LDP MP but did not realize it was Noda Seiko.  Good thing she has zero chance of winning LDP Prez.  If she became LDP Prez there will be a freak out at KP high command.  The KP is de facto controlled by the socially conservative Soka Gakkai married women division.  There is no way they would let something like this slide and demand KP high command do something about this state of affairs.

What else would likely follow if Seiko Noda somehow becomes LDP president?

[jaichind]

Since Suga declared his plans to step down Nikkei have surged 4% (taking the current Nikkei futures prices into account.)

[jaichind]

What is the chance there is an Ishiba-Kono pact of sorts?

Looks like you were right and I was wrong.  Latest rumors are that Ishiba will not run and most likely will back Kono.  That might put Kono's lead in the LDP prefecture chapter vote to a point that he might win on the first round.

[jaichind]

With the chances that CDP will have to face a Kono led LDP in the upcoming election I suspect they will really get going on alliance talks with JCP, DPP and perhaps RS.  Right now there are 68 seats where CDP and JCP are both running in, 3 where both CDP and DPP are running in, and 13 where CDP and RS are running in.  Only in around a dozen seats will it matter but I would imagine the CDP will now really get going on reducing these numbers and handful so in almost all competitive or semi-competitive districts the Opposition can take on the LDP 1-on-1.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the chance there is an Ishiba-Kono pact of sorts?

Looks like you were right and I was wrong.  Latest rumors are that Ishiba will not run and most likely will back Kono.  That might put Kono's lead in the LDP prefecture chapter vote to a point that he might win on the first round.

I wonder what Ishiba might get out of backing Kono. I was thinking perhaps a deal where Kono serves as long as he likes and he makes Ishiba his successor when he steps aside?

[jaichind]

What is the chance there is an Ishiba-Kono pact of sorts?

Looks like you were right and I was wrong.  Latest rumors are that Ishiba will not run and most likely will back Kono.  That might put Kono's lead in the LDP prefecture chapter vote to a point that he might win on the first round.

I wonder what Ishiba might get out of backing Kono. I was thinking perhaps a deal where Kono serves as long as he likes and he makes Ishiba his successor when he steps aside?

I suspect it is more like: current polling shows Ishiba cannot beat Kono on the LDP prefecture chapter vote and Ishiba will fall behind Kono in the MP vote.  So the best Ishiba can do is to force Kono into a second round.  But there Ishiba's old enemy Abe will come in to throw the election to Kono.  Ishiba knows that other than himself the candidate Abe is most against is Kono so he backs Kono so he can win on the first round as part of an anti-Abe alliance.  Ishiba might get some power in a Kono led LDP but it is most about payback to Abe.

[jaichind]

CDP SDP and JCP came up with a common minimum program which I assume is the basis of further seat adjustments

1) Against constitutional revision in the wake of the pandemic
2) Science-based response to the pandemic including relief measures re: unemployment & bankruptcy
3) Build a society decarbonized without nuclear.
4) Investigate LDP scandals and stop the relocation of Futenma US base in Okinawa
5) Lower consumption tax/raise minimum wage



They are also calling upon DPP and RS to come aboard.  It seem RS could be interested in joining the alliance.

It seems the threat of a Kono lead LDP is triggering another possible round of seat adjustments.

[jaichind]

It seems the rules for LDP Prez race changes each time.  It will be 383 MPs each with one vote and 383 votes distributed across the LDP prefecture chapters.  If no one gets a majority then there is a runoff.  In 2012 the runoff had only the MPs voting.  This time if there is a runoff then 383 MPs get a vote and each prefecture chapter gets one vote each for 47 votes.  I guess that makes the runoff a bit friendlier to Kono.

In fact if these were the rules in 2012 then Ishiba who lost to Abe 108-89 in the MP only second round would have most likely have narrowly won over Abe as at least 2/3 of the 47 prefecture chapters had Ishiba ahead of Abe.

[jaichind]

It is unclear how the 383 LDP prefecture chapter votes will be allocated.  The rules seems to change every leadership race.  In 2012 the LDP prefecture chapter vote were allocated to each prefecture not according to population but the number of LDP members.  In 2018 it was one massive all Japan LDP member vote and the LDP prefecture chapter vote allocated by PR according to the national vote.  In 2020 each prefecture was given 3 votes and each prefecture held a "caucus" with each prefecture deciding on its own to allocate the 3 according to winner-take-all or 2 for top vote getter and 1 for runner up.  I suspect the rules this year will be more like 2012 with votes allocated to each prefecture by LDP party members and then allocated within the prefecture by PR based on the voting result of LDP members.