Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/7b4cd37d721b382f0a63191b1c8c91df814221a9

It seems 籠池諄子(Kagoike Ryoko) will run in KP vs CDP 大阪(Osaka) 5th district as an independent.  She was a key player along with her husband in the Moritomo Gakuen scandal.  Her husband and her owned a private school (Moritomo Gakuen) that had a Right-Nationalist agenda and the couple were huge fans of Abe.  They had problems expanding their school over zoning issues and after they made Abe's wife an honorary principle of their school the escalated the issue to her.  It seems that the zoning issues were resolved (against existing policy)  but it was suspected that it was only after Abe intervened. 

When the scandal broke in 2016 the couple insisted that they were in touch with Abe's wife who were helping them with the zoning issue.  The Abes claimed that 籠池諄子(Kagoike Ryoko) and her husband had an "incorrect recollection of what took place" and denied any intervention on their behalf.  After tome half hearted investigations the Abes were exonerated but it was always suspected the bureaucracy covered up for Abe in return for leverage over Abe in the future.  Anyway  籠池諄子(Kagoike Ryoko) and her husband who got in trouble as part of this illegal zoning change always felt that they were hung out to dry. 

So so now 籠池諄子(Kagoike Ryoko) is going to run in 大阪(Osaka) 5th district as a part of a "revenge" election campaign.  Clearly KP will still win but it is not good for the LDP for the Moritomo Gakuen story to be back in the news.

[jaichind]

Out of 289 seats the JRP now have over 90 candidates.  They really picked up the pace of nominations after Kono lost the LDP Prez race.  They seem to see a chance to scoop up some of the pro-Kono LDP vote that were disappointed in Kishida's victory.  Also without HP like party running as in 2017 (DPP is a shadow of 2017 HP) JRP also figure they can slaw back some Center-Right anti-LDP vote that HP got in 2017.

[xelas81]

When  are the requirements and deadline date for candidate registration?

[Logical]

When  are the requirements and deadline date for candidate registration?

The main requirement for SMDs is paying a 3 million Yen ($27k) deposit that only gets refunded if you get at least 10% of the vote. Last date for candidate registration or withdrawal is October 19th.

[jaichind]

When  are the requirements and deadline date for candidate registration?

The main requirement for SMDs is paying a 3 million Yen ($27k) deposit that only gets refunded if you get at least 10% of the vote. Last date for candidate registration or withdrawal is October 19th.

Also like India, you do not have to have any residency in the district you are running from.  This allows for some VIP candidates to switch prefectures for various reasons f necessary.

[jaichind]

Trouble brewing between LDP and KP in 大阪(Osaka).  It seems in 大阪(Osaka) 3rd a key LDP kingpin 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) has decided to run as a LDP rebel against the KP.  柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) ran unsuccessfully in 2019 as the LDP candidate for 大阪(Osaka) governor against the JRP.  It seems he is angry with KP for backing the JRP in the 大阪(Osaka) Metropolitan Plan Referendum last year.

柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) is the nephew of a top retired 大阪(Osaka) LDP leader that was part of a great LDP 大阪(Osaka) civil war back in 2010 that led to the creation of JRP by the pro-Hashimoto bloc within LDP.   As a result  above all else 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) hates the JRP.  He has been a key force in creating various ah hoc LDP-CDP-DPP-JCP alliances against JRP in various local 大阪(Osaka) elections over the years.

A LDP heavyweight like 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) entering into a race that was a sure KP hold has KP hopping mad and throwing accusations against the 大阪(Osaka) LDP.  If the LDP and KP do not resolve this I can see problems for the LDP in other 大阪(Osaka) seats.  Big winner in all this has to be JRP.

As of right now the 大阪(Osaka) 3rd race will now become a free-for-all.  

In 2017 it was

KP              54.1% (backed by LDP and implicitly JRP)
JCP             35.4% (de facto backed by CDP)
LDP rebel    10.5% (pro-JRP and most likely most of his votes are JRP votes)

Now in 2021 we have

KP (incumbent)
CDP
JCP
LDP rebel (anti-JRP) (柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira))
LDP rebel (pro-JRP)

The pro-JRP LDP rebel from 2017 will also run so now the LDP voter will have the choice of an anti-JRP LDP rebel and a pro-JRP LDP rebel.  I think if CDP can convince JCP to step aside they might be able to steal the seat.  If not the both CDP and JCP will be viewed as non-viable and the CDP-DPP vote will start to tactically vote between the KP and LDP rebel 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira).

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/aa9030f46c2a53a36c624f097c771c6d768cffff

KP deep state swings into action and got LDP high command to come in and "convince" 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira)  not to run and averting a major LDP-KP crisis in 大阪(Osaka).

[jaichind]

In 福島(Fukushima) CDP and JCP made a deal where CDP withdrew its candidate from 福島(Fukushima) 5th in return for JCP withdrawing its candidate from  福島(Fukushima) 2nd.  Both are no hope seats where LDP is certain to win no matter what but are the sort of deals that CDP and JCP needs to make in other swing districts.   I am not sure this deal is able to be replicated in other prefectures since in  福島(Fukushima) 5th there is a consensus that the JCP candidate is fairly well know and most likely a stronger candidate than the CDP candidate anyway which mitigated any blowback in the prefecture CDP for giving a seat away to the JCP.  It is not clear that in other prefectures this type of situation exists.

[jaichind]

3 weeks from election this is my best guesstimate on results and realistic min/max ranges.  Note that if CDP JCP RS get more alliances set up these numbers will change.  Also next week the various mega media polls will come out which could change a lot of this.


                   District              PR            Total           District        PR            Total
                Min     Max     Min    Max   Min    Max      Projected   Projected  Projected
LDP          157     180      64     68    221    248         172            68            240
KP               7        8       20     24     27      32            8             22              30
Ind(LDP)      3        5                         3        5             4                                4
JRP            10      11       13     17     23     28            10            15              25
DPP             5        5        1       5       6     10              5              1               6
Ind(DPP)     2        3                           2      3             2                                2
CDP          77     100       52     54    129   152           85             52            137
Ind(CDP)    1         1                          1      1              1                               1
RS             0         0        0       3       0       3              0              1               1
SDP           1         1        0       0       1       1              1              0               1
JCP            1         1       14     19     15     20              1            17             18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                           289           176            465

Overall a LDP setback but workable majority.

[jaichind]

Looks like 東京(Tokyo) 15th will turn into a multi-corned free for all.

Back in 2017 it was

LDP           45.6%
HP             31.7%
JCP            15.7%
LDP rebel     7.1% (did run for JRP in the past)

But that was a long time ago.  The LDP incumbent was forced to leave the LDP in 2019 due to a corruption scandal involving a Mainland Chinese company paying him off to get access to casinos being built in the future.  The LDP incumbent still insisted on running for re-election as an independent hoping that the LDP will not run a candidate and that after he wins he can re-join the LDP.

The 2017 HP candidate which had a DPJ, YP, and JIP background as an MP did not join DPP but became a pro-CDP independent.    He was going to run as a CDP backed independent but recently decided to take a more pro-LDP pro-DPP position and will instead run pro-Rengo independent.

Also in the fray are JCP, JRP, 2017 LDP rebel, and the leader of the Far Right anti-Korean JFP.  Now that the 2017 HP candidate turn pro-CDP independent has turned against the CDP it is likely CDP will now run a candidate.

It was just announced that the LDP will nominate a candidate as oppose to implicitly backing the disgraced ex-LDP incumbent.  The candidate has a background in the far right SPJ and was then JRP MP the the PR slate in 2012-2014 but have since joined the LDP

So the race will become

LDP (have far right SPJ and then JRP background)
CDP (not confirmed yet but likely)
ex-LDP incumbent running as independent
pro-Rengo independent (with DPJ, YP, JIP and HP background)
JCP
JRP
LDP rebel (has JRP background)
JFP leader

Most smart money has the pro-Rengo independent the most likely to win but with the LDP vote most likely split 3 ways and non-JCP opposition vote split two ways the result and a fairly strong JCP vote the result will be hard to predict but will be fun to watch.

[xelas81]

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%B3%E3%82%B9%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%82%AB%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F Interesting article in JP wikiepdia describing a situation where two candidates
from same political party or alliance alternate running on FPTP seat one election and PR seat next.

[jaichind]

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/135543

It is said that RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will run in 東京(Tokyo) 8th.  This is 石原(Ishihara) faction leader 石原慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō)'s seat,  The seat currently has a CDP JCP RS and JRP candidates with none of them considered quality candidates.  The article seems to indicate that the CDP and JCP candidates will step aside and of course the current RS candidate will step aside for his leader.  I am not sure if this will really place but if true then this seat which is lean LDP might become a tossup.

In 2017 this seat was

LDP             39.2%
CDP             30.0%
HP               16.2% (DPJ and then JRP background)
JCP               8.8%
Center-Left    4.7%  (since joined DPP)
Extreme Left  1.2%

In the LDP landslide year of  2012 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) also ran in this seat as a pro-PLP independent but the 2017 Center-Left candidate also ran as the DPJ candidate as well as the JCP candidate split the anti-LDP vote leading to  石原慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō) winning.  This year with the environment more favorable and  山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) being more well known there is a good shot for him to win if CDP and JCP pulls out JRP stays in to split the LDP vote.

After it became clear that the local CDP had  strongly objected to standing down their candidate for 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) and will refuse to vote for him if CDP were to withdraw their candidate, 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) decided not to run after all in  東京(Tokyo) 8th.

[jaichind]

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E3%82%B3%E3%82%B9%E3%82%BF%E3%83%AA%E3%82%AB%E6%96%B9%E5%BC%8F Interesting article in JP wikiepdia describing a situation where two candidates
from same political party or alliance alternate running on FPTP seat one election and PR seat next.

This is the Costa Rica arrangement.  Japan used to have a multi-member district for Lower House elections just like the Upper House.  This was changed for 1996 as part of electoral reform geared toward a 2 party system and breaking the LDP factions.  It did not work out that way.  One way the LDP deal with the transition of multiple candidates in the same district is for the two LDP aspirants to either
a) both run as independents and the winner retroactively nominated as the LDP candidate
b) get them to take turns between a top position on the PR slate and the LDP candidate

Over time the LDP have mostly sifted to a) since it is confusing for voters to keep on changing candidates on them as well as the fact that the Costa Rica arrangements as part of b) kept on leading to a) anyway as LDP MPs were saw winning on a PR only slate as lowering their value and thus power in the LDP and end up rebelling and running as an independent even when it is their turn  to run as a pure PR candidate.

This election cycle the LDP is facing duplicate candidate in about a dozen seats.  For some of them they will most likely accept a) where both will run as independents or the local LDP chapter backs but the other run as an independent with the understanding that if he were to win he will be retroactively nominated as LDP candidate.  In some cases the LDP high command is trying to offer a PR only slate for the LDP rebel and in a couple of cases it worked although it is not clear it is a long term arrangement which qualify it was a Costa Rica arrangement.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-s-PM-Kishida-backpedals-on-raising-tax-on-investment-income

"Japan's PM Kishida backpedals on raising tax on investment income"

Seeing the impact on Japanese equities markets Kishida backpedals on his idea of a capital gains tax increase to fund a demand side Keynesian redistribution policy.

[jaichind]

Just to get a sense of LDP fortunes over the last few months.  If you look at various Japanese discussion boards and the predictions people that post on them make and break them down from when they made those predictions, you can compute the median LDP seat forecast from each "era"

Median projection of LDP seat count

Before Suga stepped down: 216
During LDP Prez leadership race: 241
After Kishida won LDP Prez race: 231

You have to add 3-4 to these numbers to take into account the various pro-LDP candidates that are very likely to win.   I think these projections are too negative for LDP every step of the way but the narrative is clear.  Before Suga stepped down the LDP was headed to a very bad result.  During the LDP Prez race when there was a solid chance that Kono would win the LDP fortunes soared.  After Kishida won it went back down but nowhere as bad as when Suga was in charge.

[jaichind]

Sumnery of Kishida speech to parliament

Other than commitment to restarting nuclear plants everything else is dancing around the issue

----------------

Economic growth and distribution are both fundamental

Capital gains tax one option for distribution

Tax breaks for pay raises and other such issues to be tackled first

ROC an important partner; will seek to deepen ties and continue to pay close attention to situation

Must be extremely cautious in considering same-sex marriage

Should continue debate on allowing married couples to keep separate family names

Lockdowns backed by large fines to contain the coronavirus are not a good fit for Japan

Hydrogen and nuclear are among options to maximize renewable energy

Need all options, including nuclear power, to cut carbon emissions

Should restart nuclear plants that meet standards

[jaichind]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/10/92de8cb77493-japan-opposition-vows-to-tax-the-rich-in-election-platform.html

"Japan opposition vows to tax the rich in election platform"

Just as Kishida walks back capital gains tax increases, CDP doubles down on tax increases across the board for high income earners including capital gains tax.  CDP also promises to temporarily cut the national sales tax.  Seems they are trying to target the DPP and KP vote. 

[jaichind]

Political analyst 三浦博史 (Miura Hiroshi) current projection for Mainichi

             District         PR          Total
LDP          191            66          257
KP               9            23            32
JRP            10            15            25
DPP             5              9            14
CDP           64            49          113
RS              0              1              1
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             13           14
Ind.            8                             8 (most likely 4 pro-LDP 4 opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465



He seems pretty positive on KP (in district seats) and DPP(on the PR slate.)  His projection also has CDP falling short of taking down LDP in the various swing districts.  If these were the results Kishida would consider it a success.

I will be very interested to see his seat by seat projections

[jaichind]

One of the LDP PR only candidate in the Tokyo zone is interesting.  It is 松野未佳 (Matsuno Mika) who was Miss Japan in 2016.  She is also the daughter of former JIP leader 松野頼久(Matsuno Yorihisa).   松野頼久(Matsuno Yorihisa) father was in the LDP but he got started in JNP and then Osawa's NPF before joining DPJ.  When JRP was formed he jumped into JRP and took over the JIP when JRP split into the Osaka faction (ORA which then later took over JRP name) and non-Osaka faction (JIP) which he later merged with DPJ to form DP in 2016.

What is interesting is while  松野頼久(Matsuno Yorihisa) was working to merge JIP into DPJ and form a large opposition party to take on Abe his daughter 松野未佳 (Matsuno Mika) won the Miss Japan contest and got to meet Abe because of that.  When asked about her career aspirations she told Abe she want to enter politics like her father.  Abe responded "you must run for LDP."



松野頼久(Matsuno Yorihisa) joined HP after DP split in 2017 but lost re-election in the 2017 election which pretty much ended his political career which does free 松野未佳 (Matsuno Mika) to enter politics.  Like Abe promised the LDP went out of its way to court her and got her to join LDP and now she will be on the LDP PR list as a PR only candidate.

[jaichind]

It seems pro-DPP Upper House MP 上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) from 埼玉(Saitama) will be forming a new Centrist party.  上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi) who was in the LDP in the 1980s but turned rebel and joined DPJ in 2000s via being in Ozawa's NPF in the 1990s and was an anti-LDP governor of 埼玉(Saitama) until 2019.  He then entered the Upper House as an independent with DPP support. 

It seems several pro-CDP and pro-DPP independents mostly of the Centrist and Center-Right variety will be joining this new party.  4 Lower house independent incumbents  will most likely join.  3 of them are part of the anti-LDP electoral alliance anyway.  It is not clear at all why this new party is not just part of DPP since the main function is duplicative of DPP.  Most likely this new party will have an electoral alliance with CDP and DPP although most likely not with JCP.

上田清司(Ueda Kiyoshi)  gives up on his idea of a new Centrist party.  Most likely he will work to support some of the DPP candidates out there.

[jaichind]

In 北海道(Hokkaido) CDP and JCP reached a partial deal where JCP withdrew their candidate in a few competitive districts.  Only in 北海道(Hokkaido) 5th 7th and 12th will CDP and JCP face each other and only 北海道(Hokkaido) 5th is competitive.    This move makes 北海道(Hokkaido) 4th more competitive even though LDP would still have the edge and solidifies CDP's edge in  the 6th.  More critically in  北海道(Hokkaido) 9th now the CDP has a small edge over LDP as a result of JCP pulling out its candidate.

But even as the CDP might gain an extra seats they throw one away.  In 千葉(Chiba) 6th where it is a tossup lean CDP for a flip the CDP candidate misspoke on the campaign train (saying there are no current Japanese abductees in DPRK).  As a result CDP has disowned the candidate who will most likely run as a pro-CDP independent to take on the LDP.  Now this seat is most likely lean LDP. 

[jaichind]

Looks like 東京(Tokyo) 15th will turn into a multi-corned free for all.

Back in 2017 it was

LDP           45.6%
HP             31.7%
JCP            15.7%
LDP rebel     7.1% (did run for JRP in the past)

But that was a long time ago.  The LDP incumbent was forced to leave the LDP in 2019 due to a corruption scandal involving a Mainland Chinese company paying him off to get access to casinos being built in the future.  The LDP incumbent still insisted on running for re-election as an independent hoping that the LDP will not run a candidate and that after he wins he can re-join the LDP.

The 2017 HP candidate which had a DPJ, YP, and JIP background as an MP did not join DPP but became a pro-CDP independent.    He was going to run as a CDP backed independent but recently decided to take a more pro-LDP pro-DPP position and will instead run pro-Rengo independent.

Also in the fray are JCP, JRP, 2017 LDP rebel, and the leader of the Far Right anti-Korean JFP.  Now that the 2017 HP candidate turn pro-CDP independent has turned against the CDP it is likely CDP will now run a candidate.

It was just announced that the LDP will nominate a candidate as oppose to implicitly backing the disgraced ex-LDP incumbent.  The candidate has a background in the far right SPJ and was then JRP MP the the PR slate in 2012-2014 but have since joined the LDP

So the race will become

LDP (have far right SPJ and then JRP background)
CDP (not confirmed yet but likely)
ex-LDP incumbent running as independent
pro-Rengo independent (with DPJ, YP, JIP and HP background)
JCP
JRP
LDP rebel (has JRP background)
JFP leader

Most smart money has the pro-Rengo independent the most likely to win but with the LDP vote most likely split 3 ways and non-JCP opposition vote split two ways the result and a fairly strong JCP vote the result will be hard to predict but will be fun to watch.

CDP moved its candidate from no win solid LDP 東京(Tokyo) 4th and moved him to 東京(Tokyo) 15th to take on the pro-Rengo and formerly pro-CDP independent incumbent (elected in PR slate in 2017.)  This CDP candidate I am sure to do so since increase the chances him being elected on the PR slate.  The PR slate works on a best loser method where the higher the percentage of the vote share as a ratio of the winning vote share the higher one ranks on the PR slate.  So if we view the pro-Rengo incumbent as the de facto DPP candidate then LDP CDP DPP JRP JCP are all represented plus 2 LDP rebels (ex-LDP incumbent and another LDP rebel) as well as the leader of the extreme nationalist Right JFP.

[jaichind]

JCP dropped candidates in 22 seats and CDP dropped candidates in 3 seats.  I have to look at the districts one by one but my impression is that other than perhaps 2-3 of them most of them are not in competitive districts so the impact of this is not as large as the headline numbers.

[Logical]

JCP dropped candidates in 22 seats and CDP dropped candidates in 3 seats.  I have to look at the districts one by one but my impression is that other than perhaps 2-3 of them most of them are not in competitive districts so the impact of this is not as large as the headline numbers.

List here: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d83c026d6c8a5afe54b93da1f1c232d2ecf05574
Some of them have been announced previously. I think about 5-7 of them can be considered competitive. More importantly, the JCP does not rule out further adjustments and withdrawals in the coming days.

[jaichind]

List of 22 seats JCP vacating to support CDP

北海道(Hokkaido) 3rd: Solid CDP
北海道(Hokkaido) 4th: Tossup lean LDP
北海道(Hokkaido) 9th: Tossup lean CDP
山形(Yamagata) 1st: Solid LDP
福島(Fukushima) 2nd: Solid LDP
茨城(Ibaraki) 6th: Tossup lean CDP
群馬(Gunma) 4th: Solid LDP
千葉(Chiba) 5th: Solid LDP
千葉(Chiba) 7th: Solid LDP
千葉(Chiba) 8th: Tossup lean LDP
神奈川(Kanagawa) 2nd: Solid LDP
神奈川(Kanagawa) 13th: Solid LDP
東京(Tokyo) 15th: Big mess in theory lean pro-Rengo independent
東京(Tokyo) 23rd: Tossup lean LDP
福井(Fukui) 1st: Solid LDP
静岡(Shizuoka) 1st: Solid LDP (only because both CDP and DPP are running)
静岡(Shizuoka) 8th: Competitive favor LDP
奈良(Nara) 1st: Tossup lean CDP
岡山(Okayama) 4th: Competitive favor LDP
広島(Hiroshima) 2nd: Competitive favor LDP
福岡(Fukuoka) 5th: 3 way tossup between LDP LDP rebel and CDP lean LDP
福岡(Fukuoka) 7th: Solid LDP


List of 3 seats CDP withdrew for JCP (all of them solid LDP-KP seats)

福島(Fukushima) 4th: Solid LDP
東京(Tokyo) 4th: Solid LDP
大阪(Osaka) 5th : Solid KP

Not listed is 千葉(Chiba) 6th where it was a tossup lean CDP seat where due to the CDP candidate misspeaking about Japanese abductees in DPRK had to withdraw his candidacy.   JCP then came in with their candidate and in all practical purposes the seat has been handed by CDP to JCP which of course is throwing the seat away.

It seems JCP's move solidifies a bunch of seats where CDP most likely have the edge anyway and puts some more seats into play. 東京(Tokyo) 15th and 福岡(Fukuoka) 5th will be especially interesting as both are multi-cornered with the LDP vote most likely split and the CDP-JCP vote consolidation could fetch the CDP candidate a vote share in the high 30s which might give them the win.

[jaichind]

JCP dropped candidates in 22 seats and CDP dropped candidates in 3 seats.  I have to look at the districts one by one but my impression is that other than perhaps 2-3 of them most of them are not in competitive districts so the impact of this is not as large as the headline numbers.

List here: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d83c026d6c8a5afe54b93da1f1c232d2ecf05574
Some of them have been announced previously. I think about 5-7 of them can be considered competitive. More importantly, the JCP does not rule out further adjustments and withdrawals in the coming days.

By my calculations there are still 7 more tossup/competitive seats that where CDP and JCP have candidates in (mostly in 東京(Tokyo) and 神奈川(Kanagawa.) The number for CDP vs RS tossup/competitive seats are 6 (mostly in 東京(Tokyo.)

So it seems there will be some hard talks between CDP JCP and RS over 東京(Tokyo) the next few days.  The main problem is there are many solid LDP seats left in 東京(Tokyo) for CDP to cede to JCP or RS in compensation.  CDP can yield seats in the prefectures but the JCP and RS 東京(Tokyo) branches will have  problem with this and revolt.