India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
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  India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K
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Author Topic: India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K  (Read 31563 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #875 on: December 28, 2021, 01:22:06 PM »

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/delimitation-panel-proposes-6-additional-seats-for-jammu-1-for-kashmir-1889899-2021-12-20

"Delimitation Panel proposes 6 additional seats for Jammu, 1 for Kashmir"

J&K delimitation exercises making progress.  If so then we can expect J&K assembly elections in 2022.  In 2019 J&K assembly was suspended and Ladakh detached to become a Union territory.

If they add 6 seats to Jammu and 1 to Kashmir it will be Kashmir 47 Jammu 43.  In an assembly election BJP most likely can sweep 36-38 of the Jammu seats but unless there is a boycott of voting Kashmir there is no way the BJP can win any seats in Kashmir.  In Jammu there are several Muslim majority enclaves ergo the cap for BJP in Jammu is most likely 36-38.  The most likely result of a J&K election would be a JKN-PDP government with outside support of INC if necessary to get to the majority.

https://thewire.in/government/heres-why-neither-kashmir-nor-jammu-is-happy-with-delimitation-commissions-draft-report

Kashmir-based parties like JKN and PDP are up in arms about the 47 to 43 Kashmir/Jammu seat breakdown and calling it a BJP gerrymander given the fact that Kashmir has 56% of the J&K voting population.   The BJP claims that the commission was merely trying to increase the number of reserved seats for Dalits and Tribals to ensure these groups are represented and it just so happens that those extra seats are in Jammu where Dalits and Tribals are much more numerous. 


Of course, this is a very self-serving argument as it is clear that the BJP does want to create more Jammu seats to give it a chance to win a J&K election later year.   I do not think it will work.  The BJP is now the de facto incumbent party in J&K and I doubt it can even sweep Jammu as it did back in 2014.  And even if it did a grand alliance of JKN PDP with outside support from INC will most likely prevent a BJP majority even on these seat distribution numbers.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #876 on: December 30, 2021, 12:09:33 PM »

Karnataka Local body elections has the INC narrowly beating the BJP.  BJP has a slight edge in urban areas but well behind the INC in rural areas

Vote share wise INC defeat BJP 42.06% to 36.90% with JD(S) way behind at 3.80%



For the ruling party to be defeated in local elections shows that BJP is likely to lose to INC in the 2023  Karnataka assembly elections.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,148
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #877 on: December 30, 2021, 12:21:17 PM »

I think that is a wrap for 2021 India elections.

On to 2022 with UP Punjab Uttarakhand Manipur and Goa in Feb-March 2022 and Gujarat HP and likely J&K in Nov-Dec 2022.

2022 UP will be ultra critical.  If BJP can win UP with a good margin then I think Modi will most likely win 2024 and serve an unprecedented 15 years as India PM.  If BJP narrowly wins or loses UP then 2024 is still up in the air with a chance that NDA might lose power or have to rope in other parties to maintain control most likely w/o Modi as PM.
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