Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

In theory we are all set for Kishida to become PM Monday and then he will dissolve the Diet for an election Nov 7th with campaigning starting Oct 26th.  Main problem is that Kishida plans to attend the G20 summit on Oct 30th-31st.  It is highly unusual for a PM to be aboard during the campaign season so there are still rumors that the election will be Nov 14th instead.

[jaichind]

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA031PE0T01C21A0000000/?n_cid=SNSTWP&n_tw=1633293026

Expectations and thoughts of upcoming elections

LDP: Target to win simple majority with KP.  LDP always does this where they come up with very conservative targets so they always overperform.

CDP: Opposition competitive with LDP in half the seats.  There are 50-100 seats where Opposition seat adjustment (mostly between CDP JCP and RS and in a few cases with DPP) will make a difference.   In theory CDP's claim is correct.  If you look at all the seats the Opposition (including JRP) are likely to win AND add in all other seats that are in theory competitive it most likely adds up to around half the district seats.  Of course the CDP wording seems to imply that the Opposition (very broadly defined to most likely include JRP) are likely to win a equal number of seats as LDP-KP which of course is overly optimistic.

JCP: Opposition will grow in strength and JCP will back a CDP led cabinet from the outside if LDP-KP can be ousted from power.  Sort of sidesteps how well JCP will perform.

JRP: JRP is running a record 85 candidates so the JRP seat will surge.   Just like JCP does not seems to indicate any real numbers on seats expected.

DPP: Will target limited alliance with CDP.

[jaichind]

NHK reports election day to be Oct 31st. 

[jaichind]

It is clear why Kishida is picking the earlier election date.   He wants less time for Opposition alliance talks, less time for honeymoon effect to dissipate, and less chances of another COVID-19 surge. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So the writs have already been dropped?
EDIT: post #21,000

[jaichind]

So the writs have already been dropped?
EDIT: post #21,000

Not yet but NHK is official as they come.  If NHK reports that Kishida will have the election on Oct 31st then that is pretty much what is going to take place.  It is also reported that Kishida will skip the G20 meeting  Oct 30th-31st.

[jaichind]

Kishida formally announces Oct 31st as election date.

[jaichind]

Realistic goals for each party in upcoming election

LDP: Along with pro-LDP independents and retroactive LDP candidates get to 261 for stable majority
KP: Win all 9 district seat and increase PR seats: Above 30 seats
CDP: Above 130 seats
DPP: Maintain 5 district seats plus win PR seats beyond (東海)Tokai: 7 seats or above
SDP: win a PR seat in addition to its 1 district seat: 2 seats
RS: Win PR seats outside Tokyo: 2 seats or above
JCP: Above 15 seats
JRP: Above 22 seats

For LDP and CDP

LDP
275+      Major victory
261-274  Victory
246-260  Draw
233-245  Setback
216-232  Major defeat
215-       Catastrophe

CDP
150+      Major victory
130-149  Victory
120-129  Draw
110-119  Defeat
100-109  Major defeat
99-         Catastrophe, need to rethink the the entire value proposition of CDP

[jaichind]

If you go the the website of the new Koike party "ファーストの会" or First Association(FA).  You get "TBD" for their policies.  This is quite symbolic for this new party which really seems to be a way to recycle failed TPFA candidates from the Tokyo Metropolitan elections from the Summer into the Diet.  I doubt it will work.

[jaichind]

The start of the Kishida's reign is not auspicious

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-05/japan-s-kishida-gets-lowest-support-for-a-new-premier-since-2008

"Japan’s Kishida Gets Lowest Support for a New Premier Since 2008"
-> This is really not that surprising given how popular Kono was and the overall numbers are not that bad and if could be kept up on election day should give the LDP a solid victory


https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/kishida-shock-hits-japan-markets-with-investors-wary-of-redistribution-plans-1.1661836
"‘Kishida Shock’ Hits Japan Markets Wary of Redistribution Plan"
-> Kishida talk of “new type of Japanese capitalism" and higher capital gains taxes have driven the market down almost 3% before closing at down 2%


https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2021/10040601/?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=twitter-daily
-> Old scandal reemerges about 高木毅(Takagi Tsuyoshi) who has been tapped by Kishida to work with Opposition parties where when he was younger he was known to break into houses of women and steal their panties.

Also 小渕優子(Obuchi Yūko), daughter of a former LDP PM, is back in the cabinet leading to more stories from when she had to resign as a minister back in 2014 due to possible corruption.  She is known as "Drill Obuchi" because as prosecutors arrived at her office to get disks of her accounting data her assistant drilled those disks to make them unreadable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"new style of Japanese capitalism"
What segments of the electorate is this calculated to appeal to? What segments is it likely to win him votes in?

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll on PR voting intentions

LDP   34(-1)
KP       6(+1)
JRP      8(+1)
DPP     2(--)
CDP   16(+2)
RS       1(-1)
JCP      7(+1)

Sort of a neutral poll which implies LDP-KP PR vote to be around 45-46 which would be a slight uptick from 2017.  But with the opposition vote more consolidated this time this would be bad news for LDP in the district seats.

But more importantly this seems to be a drop in momentum for LDP when Suga stepped down.  This is not where Kishida want to be at the start of a campaign when he should have a honeymoon tailwind.

[jaichind]

"new style of Japanese capitalism"
What segments of the electorate is this calculated to appeal to? What segments is it likely to win him votes in?

"New style of Japanese capitalism" is really just "old style social democracy" where Kishida's vision is to use Keynesian retribution to rebalance the economy.  I guess this appeals to the rural and Southern parts of Japan as well as DPP and KP voters.  But more importantly it is about having a vision.  Kishida knows the way to get around people getting tired of the old LDP politics is to come with a big idea, like Abe.  Only "New style of Japanese capitalism" does not sound particularly inspirational and sounds a lot like 2000 Al Gore slogan of "pragmatic idealism." 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"new style of Japanese capitalism"
What segments of the electorate is this calculated to appeal to? What segments is it likely to win him votes in?

"New style of Japanese capitalism" is really just "old style social democracy" where Kishida's vision is to use Keynesian retribution to rebalance the economy.  I guess this appeals to the rural and Southern parts of Japan as well as DPP and KP voters.  But more importantly it is about having a vision.  Kishida knows the way to get around people getting tired of the old LDP politics is to come with a big idea, like Abe.  Only "New style of Japanese capitalism" does not sound particularly inspirational and sounds a lot like 2000 Al Gore slogan of "pragmatic idealism." 

So it's basically an unexciting but not catastrophically terrible slogan that Kishida is using to make it sound like he's a bold figure?

[jaichind]

https://www.sankei.com/article/20211005-FIGTFCNVBVLVLBWXRLRVPXUSZA/

With the election now scheduled for 10/31 there is greater urgency between CDP and JCP to hold talks on the 10-12 seats where CDP and JCP have candidate but are winnable for CDP.  I compute 13 such seats.  2 of them I think CDP will win even with JCP candidate in the fray and the other 11 competitive where JCP withdrawing would make a difference.

The main sticking point is JCP wants CDP to commit to a coalition government in case of a CDP-JCP majority as a way to enhance JCP's social acceptability with Center-Left voters and CDP does not want to commit to this for fear of turning off Centrist and Center-Right voters.  

JCP will run in a bunch of seats where DPP is running.  In two of them DPP will win even if JCP runs but in one seat (茨城(Ibaraki) 3rd) JCP running most likely will hurt DPP's chances of winning.
 

[jaichind]

"new style of Japanese capitalism"
What segments of the electorate is this calculated to appeal to? What segments is it likely to win him votes in?

"New style of Japanese capitalism" is really just "old style social democracy" where Kishida's vision is to use Keynesian retribution to rebalance the economy.  I guess this appeals to the rural and Southern parts of Japan as well as DPP and KP voters.  But more importantly it is about having a vision.  Kishida knows the way to get around people getting tired of the old LDP politics is to come with a big idea, like Abe.  Only "New style of Japanese capitalism" does not sound particularly inspirational and sounds a lot like 2000 Al Gore slogan of "pragmatic idealism." 

So it's basically an unexciting but not catastrophically terrible slogan that Kishida is using to make it sound like he's a bold figure?

Mostly but it does not matter that much.  This Kishida slogan will not gain any votes but I suspect it will not lose any either.  It is the bad press from the market falling on his first speech that should have him concerned from a PR front.

[jaichind]

Kishida  also appointed 甘利明(Amari Akira) who is close to both Abe and Aso General Secretary of LDP.  Overall this is an attempt to balance the needs of Abe, who wanted Takaichi, and Aso.  Anyway, Amari had to resign from the cabinet in 2016 over possible corruption issues.  Having him back again is not a good look and reminds people that the old backroom politics of the LDP is back.

[jaichind]

BTW, because his dad was working in the UN, Kishida did spend 3 years in the USA (ages 6-9.)  Here he is in 1965 when he was eight in the the school picture of his school in Queens.  He is in the last row second from the right.  As a result he does have reasonably working English although not as good as Kono who spend a year in high school and 4 years in college in the USA.

[jaichind]

The latest JCP pullout from swing districts begins.  In 茨城(Ibaraki) 6th JCP pulls out its candidate leading to a LDP vs CDP 1-on-1 battle. 

In 2017 茨城(Ibaraki) 6th it was
LDP      45.9%
HP        43.3%
JCP       10.8%

The 2017 HP candidate who was elected on the PR slate then joined DPP and then CDP when most of DPP merged into CDP last year.  As a result a seat that was tossup is now most likely lean CDP.

On the other hand, in next door in 茨城(Ibaraki) 5th, JCP refuses to pull out.

In 2017 茨城(Ibaraki) 6th it was
LDP      48.2%
HP        44.0%
JCP         7.9%

The 2017 HP candidate who was also elected on the PR slate then joined DPP but stayed with the rump DPP.  Due to DPP refusing to have an elicit alliance with JCP the JCP refuses to pull out its candidate.  This district is also considered tossup (mostly due to the fact that fundamentals are not that great for LDP)  but with JCP refusing to pull out I have it as a LDP win for this seat.

[jaichind]

For now the LDP (Green) PR surge from Suga stepping down (mostly from undecided (grey) is holding but I suspect it will decline a bit as the campaign evolves.  I am sure that CDP (blue) or JRP (light green) will see a surge as the campaign gets into gear.  It is not clear which one it will be.

[jaichind]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/10/06/japans-new-prime-minister-is-third-generation-politician-thats-more-common-than-you-might-think/

"Japan’s new prime minister is a third-generation politician. That’s more common than you might think."

Article does not point out the critical role of very restrictive campaign finance laws.  Politicians are heavily restricted on how much money they can collect and how to spend it.  As a result

a) New faces find it hard to get their name out
b) A parallel 後援会(Koenkai) (local support group) system developed where a social coalition that organizes behind a candidate does massive GOTV and in person advertisements for their candidate.  Note that these organizations CANNOT be tied to the candidate but work in parallel.  When a candidate retires the best way to keep this social coalition going is to shift their support to the child (or in some cases a high ranking assistant) of the retiring politician who they pressure to run.  This is at lot easier than to create another social coalition of vested interests.

This result shows that money and vested interests will always find a way to influence politics.  Restrictions on campaign contributions or paid political speech merely shifted the methods how such money and vested interests  influence politics and not that influence itself.

[jaichind]

Trouble brewing between LDP and KP in 大阪(Osaka).  It seems in 大阪(Osaka) 3rd a key LDP kingpin 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) has decided to run as a LDP rebel against the KP.  柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) ran unsuccessfully in 2019 as the LDP candidate for 大阪(Osaka) governor against the JRP.  It seems he is angry with KP for backing the JRP in the 大阪(Osaka) Metropolitan Plan Referendum last year.

柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) is the nephew of a top retired 大阪(Osaka) LDP leader that was part of a great LDP 大阪(Osaka) civil war back in 2010 that led to the creation of JRP by the pro-Hashimoto bloc within LDP.   As a result  above all else 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) hates the JRP.  He has been a key force in creating various ah hoc LDP-CDP-DPP-JCP alliances against JRP in various local 大阪(Osaka) elections over the years.

A LDP heavyweight like 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira) entering into a race that was a sure KP hold has KP hopping mad and throwing accusations against the 大阪(Osaka) LDP.  If the LDP and KP do not resolve this I can see problems for the LDP in other 大阪(Osaka) seats.  Big winner in all this has to be JRP.

As of right now the 大阪(Osaka) 3rd race will now become a free-for-all.  

In 2017 it was

KP              54.1% (backed by LDP and implicitly JRP)
JCP             35.4% (de facto backed by CDP)
LDP rebel    10.5% (pro-JRP and most likely most of his votes are JRP votes)

Now in 2021 we have

KP (incumbent)
CDP
JCP
LDP rebel (anti-JRP) (柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira))
LDP rebel (pro-JRP)

The pro-JRP LDP rebel from 2017 will also run so now the LDP voter will have the choice of an anti-JRP LDP rebel and a pro-JRP LDP rebel.  I think if CDP can convince JCP to step aside they might be able to steal the seat.  If not the both CDP and JCP will be viewed as non-viable and the CDP-DPP vote will start to tactically vote between the KP and LDP rebel 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Akira).

[Logical]

I think this is going to be a bad election for Komeito. Good chance of losing another 1-2 district seats and finishing below 20 PR seats. Their base is literally dying out of the electorate. Unlike the JCP who can attract left of center opposition voters behind them, why would anyone not affiliated or related to Soka Gakkai members vote for Komeito in the PR slate. If turnout rises beyond expectations it could turn disastrous.

[jaichind]

I think this is going to be a bad election for Komeito. Good chance of losing another 1-2 district seats and finishing below 20 PR seats. Their base is literally dying out of the electorate. Unlike the JCP who can attract left of center opposition voters behind them, why would anyone not affiliated or related to Soka Gakkai members vote for Komeito in the PR slate. If turnout rises beyond expectations it could turn disastrous.

KP usually runs in 9 FPTP seats.  The unexpectedly lost 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th in 2017 due to JRP splitting the anti-CDP vote and was able to arm twist LDP to give them 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd for 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th since they are unlikely to win 神奈川(Kanagawa) 6th back.  This time around I think they will most likely lose 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th which they almost lost in 2017 after JCP dropped out to back CDP.

The KP strategy has been to either get very safe seats or have good enough relationships with parties like JRP and CDP that the race becomes a KP vs JCP contest.  Even in those contests it is clear that some LDP PR voters actually prefer JCP over KP even as KP wins.  In some of these seats the JCP dropping out to back CDP is creating pressure for KP.  That most likely will take place for 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th and could take place for 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd.  In an extreme scenario 大阪(Osaka) 16th could be competitive with JCP not running and backing CDP.  Unless the LDP rebel backs down 大阪(Osaka) 3rd will become uncertain.   東京(Tokyo) 12th it is a classic KP vs JCP but some analysts say that JCP has a chance this time.

Most likely KP will win 7-8 district seats and given their track record of being able to pull all sorts of rabbits out of the hat most likely will win 8 seats despite some scares along the way.

[jaichind]

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/135543

It is said that RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will run in 東京(Tokyo) 8th.  This is 石原(Ishihara) faction leader 石原慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō)'s seat,  The seat currently has a CDP JCP RS and JRP candidates with none of them considered quality candidates.  The article seems to indicate that the CDP and JCP candidates will step aside and of course the current RS candidate will step aside for his leader.  I am not sure if this will really place but if true then this seat which is lean LDP might become a tossup.

In 2017 this seat was

LDP             39.2%
CDP             30.0%
HP               16.2% (DPJ and then JRP background)
JCP               8.8%
Center-Left    4.7%  (since joined DPP)
Extreme Left  1.2%

In the LDP landslide year of  2012 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) also ran in this seat as a pro-PLP independent but the 2017 Center-Left candidate also ran as the DPJ candidate as well as the JCP candidate split the anti-LDP vote leading to  石原慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō) winning.  This year with the environment more favorable and  山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) being more well known there is a good shot for him to win if CDP and JCP pulls out JRP stays in to split the LDP vote.