Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[Logical]

JCP dropped candidates in 22 seats and CDP dropped candidates in 3 seats.  I have to look at the districts one by one but my impression is that other than perhaps 2-3 of them most of them are not in competitive districts so the impact of this is not as large as the headline numbers.

List here: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/d83c026d6c8a5afe54b93da1f1c232d2ecf05574
Some of them have been announced previously. I think about 5-7 of them can be considered competitive. More importantly, the JCP does not rule out further adjustments and withdrawals in the coming days.

By my calculations there are still 7 more tossup/competitive seats that where CDP and JCP have candidates in (mostly in 東京(Tokyo) and 神奈川(Kanagawa.) The number for CDP vs RS tossup/competitive seats are 6 (mostly in 東京(Tokyo.)

So it seems there will be some hard talks between CDP JCP and RS over 東京(Tokyo) the next few days.  The main problem is there are many solid LDP seats left in 東京(Tokyo) for CDP to cede to JCP or RS in compensation.  CDP can yield seats in the prefectures but the JCP and RS 東京(Tokyo) branches will have  problem with this and revolt.

The elephant in the room is Tokyo 8th, where Yamamoto Taro announced he was running before withdrawing 3 days later due to strong local CDP opposition. It is a seat where a unified opposition candidate should theoretically win comfortably. Yamamoto Taro said that there were tapes of CDP execs promising him the seat, but it seems that they failed to consult the local branch. It's a mess, but if they manage to unify their candidate here, at least the opposition can avoid the usual perceptions of being divided and useless. Perhaps they should drop in Yamamoto Taro in Chiba 6th?

[jaichind]

JCP pulls its candidate out of  東京(Tokyo) 8th.

So this entire 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) episode actually served to consolidate the opposition behind CDP.  Before RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) said he was going to run in 東京(Tokyo) 8th it was LDP vs CDP vs JCP vs RS vs JRP.  When 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) jumped in, he moved the RS candidate to the RS PR slate.    Then after the local CDP pushed back on 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) being the common opposition candidate he pulled out and endorsed the CDP candidate.  I guess this put pressure on the local JCP to withdraw which I guess he just did.  So now it will be a LDP vs CDP vs JRP.  In theory based on the fundamentals this seat would be lean CDP if the CDP candidate is or was a MP.  Her relative inexperience would make this seat tossup but now she has a solid shot at winning.  So she went from being likely pushed out of this seat to a 50/50 shot at winning the seat outright within a week.

[jaichind]

The elephant in the room is Tokyo 8th, where Yamamoto Taro announced he was running before withdrawing 3 days later due to strong local CDP opposition. It is a seat where a unified opposition candidate should theoretically win comfortably. Yamamoto Taro said that there were tapes of CDP execs promising him the seat, but it seems that they failed to consult the local branch. It's a mess, but if they manage to unify their candidate here, at least the opposition can avoid the usual perceptions of being divided and useless. Perhaps they should drop in Yamamoto Taro in Chiba 6th?

I think the entire episode over  東京(Tokyo) 8th has damage his brand as well as RS brand mostly due to the image of him trying to muscle out a women CDP candidate.  I am not even sure if he would even run.  I cannot see him getting as seat that CDP-JCP would concede where he would win the seat versus coming in as PR best loser winner.  He might just opt out of running entirely.

[jaichind]

週刊文春(Shūkan Bunshun) latest projections.  I hope to get a hold of their seat by seat projection soon.

             District         PR          Total
LDP          171            73          244
KP               8            25            33
FA               0              2              2
JRP            11            15            26
DPP             7              5            12
CDP           81            34          115
RS              0              5              5
SDP            1              1              2
JCP             1             16           17
Ind.            9                             9 (6 pro-LDP 3 opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465



Their projection of LDP at 244 seats is pretty close to my current projection of 240 seats for LDP.  My main problem with this projection is that LDP-KP at 98 PR seats is a pretty high number and would imply a LDP-KP vote share of around 49%.  But if that were the case I would think that the LDP would do better than 171 district seats.  For this forecast to make sense a lot of JRP PR votes would have voted against LDP.  Totally possible but in my view unlikely.

They also have a pretty strong RS seat count on the PR slate.  New Koike Party FA at 2 PR seats is also impressive.

[jaichind]

松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru) latest projections for Zakzak magazine

             District         PR          Total
LDP          175            69          244
KP               8            21            29
FA               0              1              1
JRP            10            17            27
DPP             5              5            10
CDP           82            46          128
RS              0              1              1
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             16           17
Ind.            7                             7 (most likely 4 pro-LDP 3 opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465



He also expects FA to win PR seats.  I am skeptical that this will take place.

Which looks like a lot like my current projection

             District         PR          Total
LDP          172            68          240
KP               8            22            30
JRP            10            15            25
DPP             5              1              6
CDP           85            52          137
RS              0              1              1
SDP            1              0              1
JCP             1             16           18
Ind.            7                             7 (4 pro-LDP 3 opposition)
--------------------------------------------------
              289            176         465

It seems our biggest difference is I am not so hot on DPP's PR seat prospects whereas he thinks they will get 5.  Both of us has LDP-KP PR seats at 90

[jaichind]

First big blowback on CDP-JCP alliance.  pro-DPP independent 古本 伸一郎(Furumoto Shinichirō) and incumbent of 愛知(Aichi) 11th who was a shoe in to win re-election despite a JCP candidate in the fray decides not to run.  He has deep roots with Rengo and was disturbed by the CDP-JCP alliance and did not want to be party to an effort against LDP with JCP de facto on the Center-Left Opposition side.   

The main impact here is not just losing a safe seat to LDP but that this might signal the shift of the Rengo vote away from CDP in 愛知(Aichi) and will most likely cost the CDP as much if not more seat than it would gain by its alliance with JCP.

[jaichind]

Two separate analysts in FNN has projections of

Analyst 1: LDP 240 CDP 145 JRP 25
Analyst 2: LDP 250 CDP 120 JRP 25



It seems everyone is converging toward LDP at 240-250

[xelas81]

In order for FA to win a seat, they have to get 5% or more Tokyo PR vote which seems doable.
But I don't see how FA can win a second seat unless very popular incumbent MP runs for FA.

[jaichind]

In order for FA to win a seat, they have to get 5% or more Tokyo PR vote which seems doable.
But I don't see how FA can win a second seat unless very popular incumbent MP runs for FA.

That is pretty much my view as well.  FA does not even have a list yet.  While I can see 5% would vote for a Koike party their concern would be that there is a good chance they will fall below 5% and their PR vote wasted.  As a result potential FA voters will most likely voting for JRP.  Of course if the FA list which does not exist yet is very compelling this would change and FA will put in JRP PR voters.  But until then I think FA does not get a PR seat.

[Logical]

Another projection this time from the Weekly Post. Includes seat by seat prediction. Has the LDP at ~240 seats like others. Appears that everyone is herding for now. What's perplexing to me is that the consensus has the DPP at 5 PR seats. I can only see them winning 2 PR seats at most (Tokai & Kansai). DPP simply does not have that much strength or organization elsewhere.
https://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20211015_1699503.html?IMAGE&PAGE=2


I wonder when the massive election polls from the media consortium starts getting released

[jaichind]

Another projection this time from the Weekly Post. Includes seat by seat prediction. Has the LDP at ~240 seats like others. Appears that everyone is herding for now. What's perplexing to me is that the consensus has the DPP at 5 PR seats. I can only see them winning 2 PR seats at most (Tokai & Kansai). DPP simply does not have that much strength or organization elsewhere.
https://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20211015_1699503.html?IMAGE&PAGE=2


I wonder when the massive election polls from the media consortium starts getting released

Thanks for this

a) The reason why everyone has DPP with PR seat count at 5 is because I think they are overcompensating for 2019 elections.  In 2019 the DPP was expected to win 3% and 4% tops on the PR slate but came in at almost 7%.  The various analysts, I suspect, is expecting the same sort of poll surprise for DPP in 2021.  The problem is that the 2019 DPP overperformance has to do with the fact that people can vote for names or party in the Upper House PR ballot.  Since a lot of old DPJ big names were on the DPP list some CDP voters actually voted for those familiar names and added to the DPP PR vote share.  Since you only vote by party in the Lower House this bonus will not be in effect for DPP.

b) The media mega polls will come out 2 weeks before the election which is this weekend.  Reminder, it is one mega sample with each media house doing their own separate analysis and likely very different seat projections based on the same raw data.

c) Are you able to find the archive link for the most recent 週刊文春(Shūkan Bunshun) projections ?  I really want to take a look at their seat by seat projections.

[jaichind]

https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/f78126c82f6681309350c5cc98875b77184d4c02

FA will not run any candidates in this election.  So much for them winning 1 or 2 PR seats.  I always knew they were a dud. If Koike is not going to run at the head of the party then it is just a scheme to recycled rejected TPFA candidates that lost the Tokyo Metropolitan elections.  I cannot see why anyone will vote for this slate of losers.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone have a strong idea for where Tokyo-8 will end up? Nobuteru Ishihara has been there for eons, it would be interesting to see if he makes it or not.

[jaichind]

GS polls for PR

Zone                                      LDP    KP     JRP   DPP   CDP    JCP
北海道(Hokkaidō)                    33.7   6.1     3.8    1.6    24.5   8.4
東北(Tōhoku)                          36.7   5.0     3.4    2.2   23.8    7.0
北関東(Northern Kantō)            36.7   6.7     4.4    2.1   21.4   7.4
南関東(Southern Kantō)           36.2   5.5     5.4   2.1    20.7    7.2
東京(Tokyo)                            33.4   6.1     5.5    2.5   17.3  10.2
北陸信越(Hokuriku-Shin'etsu)    39.8  4.6     5.6    2.0   22.2    6.4
東海(Tōkai)                             37.5   6.2     5.4   2.8    20.7    6.6
近畿(Kinki)                              31.1   6.6    22.5  1.6    12.2    7.9
中国(Chūgoku)                        45.6   6.7     5.4   1.6    17.1    5.5
四国(Shikoku)                         38.6   6.7      6.1   4.2    17.1   6.2
九州(Kyūshū)                          38.6   7.2     5.1    1.8    19.3   5.9

Pretty solid numbers for CDP and ok number for JCP and LDP.  DPP and JRP numbers look pretty bad for them.  There is a chance the JCP PR vote share could beat out JRP PR. 

東海(Tōkai) is usually the median zone.  So LDP-KP at around 44% there is OK but not great.  Most likely implies a total LDP-KP vote share of around 46%-47% which is enough for a OK result for them.

[jaichind]

Anyone have a strong idea for where Tokyo-8 will end up? Nobuteru Ishihara has been there for eons, it would be interesting to see if he makes it or not.

With JCP and RS stepping aside it will be a LDP vs CDP vs JRP race.  Fundamentals seems to indicate that the CDP can and even should win especially with the JRP candidate that has a LDP background (although not in this district.)  On the other hand Ishihara is the head of a LDP faction and is considered a VIP candidate that can and should pull in votes beyond the core LDP-KP base.  Candidate quality will count for a lot and the CDP candidate was a secretary of a CDP Upper House MP and does not have deep roots in the district even though she has been active in the district for a few years now.  I suspect LDP should still have a slight edge but it depends how much of the LDP vote the JRP candidate can cut into.  If the LDP turned JRP candidates had deep roots in the district then Ishihara will be in big trouble.

[jaichind]

Another projection this time from the Weekly Post. Includes seat by seat prediction. Has the LDP at ~240 seats like others. Appears that everyone is herding for now. What's perplexing to me is that the consensus has the DPP at 5 PR seats. I can only see them winning 2 PR seats at most (Tokai & Kansai). DPP simply does not have that much strength or organization elsewhere.
https://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20211015_1699503.html?IMAGE&PAGE=2


I wonder when the massive election polls from the media consortium starts getting released

BTW, this projection has CDP with a slight edge for CDP in Tokyo 8th  DESPITE the fact that this projection was made when JCP did not pull out yet. 

[Logical]

c) Are you able to find the archive link for the most recent 週刊文春(Shūkan Bunshun) projections ?  I really want to take a look at their seat by seat projections.

The Bunshun's seat by seat projections
https://archive.is/H3cmm

[Logical]

https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2021101501050&g=elc&ref=2021syu
The LDP has resolved the problem of competing conservative candidates in most districts.
In Tokyo 15th they have decided to endorse two candidates, a pro-LDP independent favored by the local branch and the formerly opposition aligned independent PR incumbent. If either of them wins, they will get retroactively nominated as the official LDP candidate.
The Osaka LDP kingpin who wanted to run in Komeito's Osaka 3rd was nominated in the Kansai PR block. So basically the LDP bribed him with one sure seat to maintain good working cooperation with Komeito.

[jaichind]

c) Are you able to find the archive link for the most recent 週刊文春(Shūkan Bunshun) projections ?  I really want to take a look at their seat by seat projections.

The Bunshun's seat by seat projections
https://archive.is/H3cmm

Thanks a bunch.  BTW, this projection also has CDP with a slight edge in Tokyo 8th.

[jaichind]

https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2021101501050&g=elc&ref=2021syu
The LDP has resolved the problem of competing conservative candidates in most districts.
In Tokyo 15th they have decided to endorse two candidates, a pro-LDP independent favored by the local branch and the formerly opposition aligned independent PR incumbent. If either of them wins, they will get retroactively nominated as the official LDP candidate.
The Osaka LDP kingpin who wanted to run in Komeito's Osaka 3rd was nominated in the Kansai PR block. So basically the LDP bribed him with one sure seat to maintain good working cooperation with Komeito.

A lot of the "resolutions" are really seats where the LDP and the LDP rebel are the main candidates anyway.  In a couple of seats the deals made are preventing the opposition from coming in.

In Tokyo 15th the disgraced ex-LDP incumbent MP is still running so that seat will be a big mess for LDP.

Outstanding issues for LDP which are not likely to be resolved are
a) 神奈川(Kanagawa) 4th - Opposition-turned-LDP ex-MP insist on running as LDP rebel and most likely throw the race to the CDP just like 2017
b) 新潟(Niigata) pro-LDP rebel (he ran for  governor as pro-LDP candidate before) and could cost the LDP this seat although LDP should still have the edge
c) 静岡(Shizuoka) 5th - HP winner from 2017 defected to LDP and will run as pro-LDP independent against the LDP candidate.  He should win but now there is a chance this falls to CDP on an even LDP split
d) 兵庫(Hyōgo) 1st - Minor LDP rebel adds to LDP to hold of the CDP in a tossup race
e) 岡山(Okayama) 3rd - LDP rebel insist on running just like 2017.  Good news for LDP is this is really a LDP vs LDP rebel race
f) 大阪(Osaka) 3rd - pro-JRP LDP rebel in the fray just like 2017.  KP still should win with ease.
g) 広島(Hiroshima) 4th and 愛媛(Ehime) will bot see LDP rebels but they are so strongly LDP that the LDP candidate should still win with ease
h) 長崎(Nagasaki) 4th - two LDP rebels could hurt the LDP in a competitive seat.  LDP should still win
i) 熊本(Kumamoto) 2nd and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) 2nd - LDP rebel in the fray for both seats. In 鹿児島(Kagoshima) 2nd  it is an pro-LDP ex governor.  Good news for LDP is that this is really a LDP vs LDP rebel fight
j) 宮崎(Miyazaki) 1st - minor LDP rebel should not prevent an easy LDP win

 

[jaichind]

GS PR poll by age

       LDP-KP  CDP-JCP  JRP
20s    48.5　    12.3      5.1
30s    45.0       13.5    10.0
40s    42.0       17.8     9.7
50s    40.9       22.0     8.8
60s    40.1       30.5     8.1
70s    43.9       33.0     6.5

LDP-KP strong with the youth and the most elderly.  CDP-JCP strong with the elderly.  JRP is a middle aged party.

[jaichind]

The Center-Left opposition consolidation is not complete but was achieved in most seats.

By my count there are 74 competitive seats.  2 of them are LDP vs LDP seat and 4 of them are LDP vs JRP seats.

Out of the remaining 68 seats, 54 of them will see one Center-Left Opposition (CDP DPP or pro-opposition independent) taking on the LDP-KP without JCP or RS candidate.  In 14 of them JCP or RS are in the fray which could play a role in splitting the anti-LDP vote.  Still 54 out of 68 is not that bad and much better than 2017.

[jaichind]

山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will run as a PR only candidate for the Tokyo bloc.  The chances are very high that RS wins a seat on the PR bloc and it will be 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō).  Just like I said, 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō), will not be able to find a seat that he can win and that the CDP and JCP will allow him to contest by pulling their candidates.

[jaichind]

RS drops a bunch of candidates

埼玉(Saitama) 2nd: Solid LDP
東京(Tokyo) 5th: Tossup slight CDP lean
東京(Tokyo) 7th: Solid CDP
東京(Tokyo) 10th: Tossup slight LDP lean
千葉(Chiba) 9th: Tossup slight CDP lean
静岡(Shizuoka) 2nd: Solid LDP
大阪(Osaka) 1st: Solid JRP

Again this seems to help CDP fortify a few seats to enhance their chances.

[jaichind]

The main LDP attack on CDP this election is to go after then on the JCP alliance.

Kono focuses on the story of East Europe on how the Communists captured power in Eastern Europe after WWII by first forming alliances with Center-Left/Socialist parties with the implication that a vote for CDP is really a vote for the JCP which is a really vote for the extreme left dictatorship.

Abe focuses on how the CDP-JCP alliance is an opportunistic alliance with both parties having different vison of Japan.  Abe also claims (falsely I think) that the JCP does not accept the Emperor system is constitutional.   CDP leader Edano counters by saying that by Abe's logic LDP-KP alliance is equally opportunistic.