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xelas81
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Posts: 216
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« Reply #1 on: April 04, 2021, 09:33:36 AM » |
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秋田(Akita) governor count (13% in)
pro-LDP incumbent 53.1%
pro-DPP center-right 34.9%
JCP 7.6%
pro-wind power ind. 4.4%
Count so far lean rural areas. Once urban vote comes in the LDP edge will decrease.
Is the pro-wind power candidate also anti nuclear? |
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xelas81
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Posts: 216
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« Reply #4 on: July 06, 2021, 06:54:00 PM » |
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The next trial of strength is the July 18th governor election for 兵庫(Hyōgo). 兵庫(Hyōgo) has historically, like next door 大阪(Osaka) has had an anti-LDP lean. That change in 2012 with the rise of JRP which ate into the anti-LDP vote leading to the even split of the anti-LDP vote between the Center-Left and JRP. This has resulted in 兵庫(Hyōgo) becoming one of the safest prefectures for the LDP.
The 5 term incumbent pro-LDP governor is retiring but that has led to an open civil war within LDP. A significant bloc of the 兵庫(Hyōgo) prefecture LDP caucus have split off from the LDP and backed as former lieutenant governor as a opponent to the official pro-LDP candidate. This rebellion seems to have the backing of the retiring governor. This sets up the race into a 3 way race between the pro-LDP candidate, LDP rebel (with the backing of CDP-DPP) and JCP candidate. In order to beef up its chances the official LDP managed to get the JRP to back the pro-LDP candidate. This sort of triggered a war of words between the retiring governor and the 大阪(Osaka) JRP governor. In a recent speech the retiring 兵庫(Hyōgo) governor in response to a surge of COVID-19 cases in 大阪(Osaka) threatened to "be just like Trump" and build a wall between 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) to cut off the virus. He also referred to the need of an "independent" 兵庫(Hyōgo) as an indirect slat at the more powerful influential and JRP controlled 大阪(Osaka).
Anyway I suspect the race is now neck-to-neck between LDP-JRP and LDP rebel-CDP-DPP and election night two weeks from now will be pretty exciting.
If google translate is accurate, Komeito appears to not back any candidate. |
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xelas81
Rookie
Posts: 216
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2021, 09:54:19 AM » |
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(NHK)
How does Japanese electoral law decide ties?
NHK called this seat for LDP. NHK also called against both Ishihara brothers (Tokyo 3rd, 8th) |
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xelas81
Rookie
Posts: 216
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« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2021, 04:19:04 PM » |
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We can use the regression analysis to look into the unexpected defeat of Ozawa in the 岩手(Iwate) 3rd. The result was
LDP 52.05%
CDP 47.95% (Ozawa)
The PR vote was
LDP 32.10%
KP 8.98%
PNHK 1.48%
JRP 4.79%
DPP 5.60%
CDP 30.87%
RS 3.93%
SDP 4.09%
JCP 8.17%
Unlike the KP in Osaka seats, there were more votes in the district vote than PR so we also have to regress on the PR DNV. Also, I took one small village where the LDP candidate was from out of the regression since it was clear that this small village voted in an outsized way for the LDP candidate beyond its partisan lean. It does not matter that much since it is a small village and the LDP candidate most likely netted 500 more votes than he deserved based on partisan lean.
Using regression on the sub-districts I was able to construct the following PR -> District vote table including PR DNV
LDP CDP
LDP 100%
KP 100%
PNHK 10% 90%
JRP 60% 40%
DPP 45% 55%
CDP 100%
RS 65% 35%
SDP 70% 30%
JCP 5% 95%
DNV 5% 95%
The result is very interesting. We had extreme polarization with respect to LDP KP CDP and JCP with almost straight-ticket voting with these parties. The pure personality vote (people that did not vote PR but voted on the district vote) leaned heavily for Ozawa. What sunk Ozawa was the DPP RS and SDP vote was split evenly or even leaned LDP when they were expected to split in favor of Ozawa. Worse for Ozawa these 3 parties actually had a significant vote in the district which made all the difference in the world for Ozawa.
Given the candidate quality of Ozawa one would expect him to eat into LDP KP and JRP PR votes. Instead, LDP KP voted close to 100-0 for the LDP candidate and JRP split 60-40 in favor of LDP. This Ozawa underperformance PLUS the impact defection of DPP RS and SDP PR vote seems to have led to his defeat.
The question would be why would such defections take place. I suspect that the RS and SDP PR votes in this district are the center-Left youth who most likely had enough of Ozawa who they now see as just out of touch with what their lives are like and defected to LDP.
The LDP candidate, Takashi Fujiwara, is 38 years old and have been MP since 2012 (running against Ozawa and being elected by PR until winning outright this year) |
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xelas81
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Posts: 216
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« Reply #19 on: November 30, 2021, 07:44:35 PM » |
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« Edited: November 30, 2021, 07:52:37 PM by xelas81 »
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Now were are able to map out the candidate quality of the Center-Left opposition candidates we can start looking at the outliers many of which were discussed before the election.
Ultra High quality candidates that have underperformance relative to PR implied vote share
福岡(Fukuoka) 5th +9.20% - Here the CDP candidate who was in the prefecture assembly pulled off an upset over the LDP incumbent by way outperforming the PR implied vote share. The reason seems to be due to LDP factional warfare. There was another LDP candidate from a different faction that was going to run turning the race into a 3-way race. The LDP high command bought off this LDP rebel by giving him a top spot as a PR-only candidate on the PR slate. It did not seem to work as the bitterness of the rival LDP factions in the district led to large-scale defections leading to a CDP victory.
Apparently Komeito refused to endorse LDP candidate, Yoshiaki Harada, and seems like part of Komeito PR vote went CDP candidate. https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASNBW3C5JNBVTIPE013.html |
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