Japan 2021 Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections (July) and Lower House Election Oct 31st

[jaichind]

In July Tokyo will have Prefecture assembly elections which many view as a "national" election given the prestige of Tokyo.  

Of course by October there will be general elections for the Lower House.  In Sept LDP will have its Prez race which could have Suga swapped out for another leader for LDP right before an Oct general election.  This took place in 2012 where Abe won the 2012 Sept LDP Prez race right before the 2012 Dec general election.  But in 2012 LDP was in opposition and this time around you could have a new PM to replace Suga to lead LDP into battle right before the Oct 2019 elections.

In theory it is possible the 2021 Oct Lower House elections could take place before Oct but LDP ally which view the Tokyo Prefecture elections as its do or die election will demand the LDP holds the election SEVERAL MONTHS away from the July Tokyo Prefecture elections so the KP can throw everything they have into the Tokyo Prefecture elections.  Given the COVID-19 situation it can only be a few months after the July Tokyo Prefecture elections and not before.  

[jaichind]

PR voting intentions moving away from LDP and JRP and toward JRP.

Deep Green - LDP
Blue - CDP
Light Green - JRP
Orange - KP
Red - JCP
Purple - RS



These numbers seems to indicate that LDP-KP most likely will get around 45%-46% of the PR vote,
 My rule of thumb is to take PR votes of LDP and KP, add them and then add 3%-4% and that will be the LDP-KP PR vote as many KP PR voters "hide out" as LDP PR voters so it is best to add them.  KP will always get around 13% so that leaves LDP at 32%-33%.

This is around what they got in 2017 but a big drop from around 50%-51% at the peak of the Suga honeymoon.  With the opposition more united around CDP this means LDP-KP will lose seats for sure relative to 2017. Main problem for Suga/LDP is that this number will now drop more from here unless Suga can shift the narrative.

[jaichind]

Next weekend will be governor elections for 山形(Yamagata).  Historically 山形(Yamagata) has had a anti-LDP lean in governor elections although it has a pro-LDP lean in Lower House elections and prefecture assembly elections along with an anti-LDP lean in Upper House elections.

The current anti-LDP incumbent was elected in 2009 by narrowly defeating a pro-LDP incumbent and the LDP failed to come up with an opponent in 2013 and 2017.  This time around the LDP will run a 4 time member of the prefect assembly in a attempt to dislodge the pro-LDP incumbent.   All things equal the anti-LDP incumbent should have the edge but it will be a great morale boast for the LDP if they manage to flip this.

There will also be a governor election for 岐阜(Gifu) but that will be a boring election with the pro-LDP incumbent steamrolling over the pro-JCP candidate along with some minor candidates.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloombergquint.com/onweb/japan-taps-kono-as-vaccine-minister-as-approval-nears-for-pfizer

"Japan Taps Kono as Vaccine Minister as Approval Nears for Pfizer"

Cleaver move by Suga.  If it goes well then Suga also shares in the credit and if it goes badly then Kono will be less of a threat in the Sept 2021 LDP Prez elections.

[jaichind]

ex-LDP Upper MP from 広島(Hiroshima) 河井案里(Kawai Anri) found guilt of vote buying in the 2019 Upper House elections.  The prosecution's next move is to annual her election in which case there will be a by-election soon. Her husband ex-LDP Lower House MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) who is the mastermind of her 2019 campaign will most likely have to resign soon triggering a by-election in 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district.  Both of them are cronies of Abe (and my inference Suga) have left the LDP when their scandal broke.  It is not clear if the LDP will contest the Upper House by-election but LDP does seem eager to contest 広島(Hiroshima) 3rd district by-election if and when it takes place.  KP also seems keen on contesting setting up conflict between the local LDP and KP.

Also ex-LDP Lower House MP 吉川貴盛(Yoshikawa Takamori) from 北海道(Hokkaido) 2nd district has also left the LDP due to a corruption scandal and will most likely need a by-election if and when he resigns.  Here it seems the LDP most likely will not contest the by-election and will focus on the general election later this year.

News of these legal problems and by-election will only add to the woes of Suga.

[jaichind]

Voting ended in the 2 governors elections.  Exit polls are a a shock.

In 山形(Yamagata) where the anti-LDP incumbent is facing a challenge from the LDP after a walkover in 2013 and 2017 was expected to be somewhat close but the anti-LDP incumbent winning.  Instead the anti-LDP incumbent is ahead in a blowout 70-30 in exit polls



In 岐阜(Gifu) where the pro-LDP incumbent was facing a LDP rebel, a JCP candidate and a minor candidate the pro-LDP incumbent was expected to win by a wide margin.  Instead the exit polls has the pro-LDP incumbent marginally ahead of the LDD rebel and well below 50%.  It seems the pro-LDP incumbent turnout is below expected and the opposition vote (outside the core JCP vote) consolidated around the LDP rebel

[Lachi]

Well... these exits are kind of unexpected

[jaichind]

岐阜(Gifu) News did their own exit poll and also have the pro-LDP incumbent slightly ahead of the LDP rebel


中日(Chunichi) News did their own exit poll and had the same result but also has breakdown by party



It seems the pro-LDP incumbent and LDP rebel are splitting the various voting blocs right down the middle.  LDP voters break for the pro-LDP incumbent 56.2-38.8.  CDP voters are breaking for the LDP rebel slightly 42.9-41.0.  KP voters lean pro-LDP incumbent 54.2-34.9.  JCP voters clearly broke for the JCP candidate while the large mostly non-LDP independents are breaking for the LDP rebel 45.1-39.7.

This seems to indicate that had CDP realized how close this race was going to be they could have mobilized their voters to vote for the LDP rebel and given the LDP a black eye in this race.  Instead the LDP will barely get by and look bad but will not be a disaster.  

[jaichind]

朝日(Asahi) News exit poll for 岐阜(Gifu) a bit better for pro-LDP incumbent.  Whereas other exit poll has him barely ahead and winning around 45%-46% of the vote this exit poll has him with a bigger lead and around 49% of the vote.

[jaichind]

Well... these exits are kind of unexpected

They are a shock.  Black eye for Suga

[jaichind]

山形(Yamagata) News exit poll has party breakdown of those that voted



LDP   44.5
KP      3.6
JRP     0.9
DPP    1.8
Ind.  27.9
CDP  12.9
RS     1.6
SDP   1.6
JCP    2.2

Most of Independent ID are lean anti-LDP.  KP support should be around 10% here in 山形(Yamagata) so around 6% of LDP party ID are KP supporters "hiding out" as LDP supporters.  LDP+KP is 48.1 which means that large number of LDP-KP voters voted for the anti-LDP incumbent.  This is mostly expected but not on this scale as indicated by the exit polls.  To be fair it also shows LDP-KP support are mostly intact and could be rallied to the LDP-KP cause with different leadership and/or different circumstances.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well it appears that Suga's honeymoon was as brief as it was spectacular.

[jaichind]

山形(Yamagata) governor race (19% of the vote in)

Anti-LDP incumbent    73.5
pro-LDP                     26.5

So far the the anti-LDP incumbent is running far stronger in the pro-LDP rural areas than urban areas.  In rural areas it is mostly about name recognition which usually helps LDP.  This time it is helping the anti-LDP candidate. 


岐阜(Gifu) governor race (3% of the vote in)
 
pro-LDP incumbent    45.8
LDP rebel                  40.1
JCP                            7.5

pro-LDP incumbent running much stronger in rural areas which again is all about name recognition

[jaichind]

山形(Yamagata) governor race (40% of the vote in)

Anti-LDP incumbent    71.1
pro-LDP                     28.9

 
岐阜(Gifu) governor race (37% of the vote in)
 
pro-LDP incumbent    48.2
LDP rebel                  41.2
JCP                            6.3

Mostly converging toward exit polls

pro-LDP incumbent running much stronger in rural areas which again is all about name recognition

[jaichind]

山形(Yamagata) governor race (73% of the vote in)

Anti-LDP incumbent    69.8
pro-LDP                     30.2

The urban vote, ironically, are better for the pro-LDP challenger

 
岐阜(Gifu) governor race (73% of the vote in)
 
pro-LDP incumbent    48.9
LDP rebel                  38.9
JCP                            7.5

[jaichind]

山形(Yamagata) governor race (97% of the vote in) (almost done)

Anti-LDP incumbent    70.6
pro-LDP                     29.4

 
 
岐阜(Gifu) governor race (81% of the vote in)
 
pro-LDP incumbent    49.3
LDP rebel                  39.4
JCP                            7.0

[jaichind]

Counting all done

山形(Yamagata) governor race 
Anti-LDP incumbent    70.3
pro-LDP                     29.7

 
 
岐阜(Gifu) governor race 
 
pro-LDP incumbent    49.2
LDP rebel                  40.4
JCP                            6.3

So in 岐阜(Gifu) the pro-LDP incumbent avoided the more negative of the exit polls and got a vote share more in line with 朝日(Asahi) News exit poll projecting that he would get around 49% vs around 46% for the other exit polls.

[jaichind]

山形(Yamagata) governor race results are a big blow to the LDP 大内理加(Ouchi Rika) who resigned her seat in the prefecture assembly to run in the governor race.
 

大内理加(Ouchi Rika) is a 4 time LDP prefecture assembly member and considered a rising superstar in the 山形(Yamagata) LDP.  She was not going to win but in return for running in a race to keep it competitive it was expected that she would be on a LDP short list to run in either the Lower or Upper House MP next time there is an opening.   Given the scale of defeat I doubt that this will now take place.

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/27/national/politics-diplomacy/tokyo-assembly-election/

"Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election set for July 4"

Tokyo prefecture assembly elections will be July 4th.  This time around it is almost certain KP will ally with LDP versus TPFA.  What would be interesting would be how many viable candidates TPFA can run this time.  It is almost a certainty that LDP-KP will recapture a majority.  Question would be the balance of power between TPFA, CDP and JCP.

[jaichind]

The next couple of trial of strength for Suga would be two more governor elections

March 21st will see a vote for 千葉(Chiba) governor where the pro-LDP incumbent is stepping down.  Not clear who will run but most likely will be a pro-LDP vs Opposition vs JCP battle. 

April 4th will see a vote for 秋田(Akita) governor where the pro-LDP incumbent will run for re-election. JCP will be in the fray and a ex-JRP MP but now pro-DPP independent will be running as well. The pro-LDP governor will win re-election but if the margin of victory is small it will be another blow to Suga who hails from 秋田(Akita) even though his current district is in 神奈川(Kanagawa)

[xelas81]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/27/national/politics-diplomacy/tokyo-assembly-election/

"Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election set for July 4"

Tokyo prefecture assembly elections will be July 4th.  This time around it is almost certain KP will ally with LDP versus TPFA.  What would be interesting would be how many viable candidates TPFA can run this time.  It is almost a certainty that LDP-KP will recapture a majority.  Question would be the balance of power between TPFA, CDP and JCP.

Are incumbent TPFA assembly members not running or defected (back?) to LDP?

[jaichind]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/27/national/politics-diplomacy/tokyo-assembly-election/

"Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election set for July 4"

Tokyo prefecture assembly elections will be July 4th.  This time around it is almost certain KP will ally with LDP versus TPFA.  What would be interesting would be how many viable candidates TPFA can run this time.  It is almost a certainty that LDP-KP will recapture a majority.  Question would be the balance of power between TPFA, CDP and JCP.

Are incumbent TPFA assembly members not running or defected (back?) to LDP?

At this stage it is unknown.  A lot of the TPFA MLAs will see how the winds are blowing before seeing if they should jump back to LDP (and in a few cases JRP and CDP.)    In fact a key decision would be an election this weekend for the open seat of the head of 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward.)  Just like the prestige of Tokyo means the Tokyo prefecture election is almost like a national election the election for ward head of 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) is also very prestigious given 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) includes Central Tokyo and almost at par with governor elections.

Back in 2017 when the LDP incumbent ward head of 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) defected to Koike and won re-election by a landslide over the LDP and JRP candidate it was a signal for key LDP MLAs to defect to TPFA given the mood of the electorate.

2017 千代田区 (Chiyoda Ward) ward head election
Proto-TPFA incumbent 65.2%
LDP                           19.0%
JRP                           15.8%
 
This time around the TPFA incumbent is retiring and it will be a 4 way race

TPFA
LDP
JRP (same as 2017 JRP candidate)
Some youth candidate

If the election this weekend has LDP winning by a large margin over TPFA that would be a signal for the TPFA MLAs to jump ship.  If TPFA does fairly well then the TPFA caucus might hold together and it will be a 3 way battle of LDP-KP vs TPFA vs CDP-JCP where LDP-KP will win but TPFA and CDP-JCP might still perform credibly.

[kaoras]

Current JCP strength in Tokyo assembly seems totally unsustainable (although they always seem to overperform in Tokyo prefecturals). With how many seats you think they will end up with, will they work with CDP?

[jaichind]

Current JCP strength in Tokyo assembly seems totally unsustainable (although they always seem to overperform in Tokyo prefecturals). With how many seats you think they will end up with, will they work with CDP?

The CDP-JCP alliance will work like an old Arab saying: "I against my brother. I and my brother against my cousin. I, my brother, and my cousin against the world".  In 1- and 2- member districts CDP and JCP will have an alliance.  In district sizes of 3- and greater it will be a free-for-all.  The bigger the district size the more the CDP and JCP will be at each other throats.

It is unlikely JCP will repeat its 2017 performance in terms of seats.  The JCP won so many seats because of a perfect storm in the 7 3- member districts.  In all of them it was TPFA LDP KP JCP DP running for the top 3 spots.  It was "obvious" to me that it would be TPFA LDP KP in all 7 because the DP vote would collapse and shift to TPFA.  What I missed was that the LDP vote also collapse and shifted to TPFA letting in JCP in 5 out of the 7 3- member districts.

See what I wrote in 2017

In the 3- seat bloc, there are 7 of them so 21 seats are available.  Here LDP TPFA KP and JCP will all compete.  Being the weakest of the 5 major parties, DP starts to drop out in some of the seats here.  LDP also nominated 2 candidates in 2 of these seats in an attempt win both of them hoping for an even split of the anti-LDP vote.

                                                Projected                  Result
                                 Contested    Win                Win          Vote Share
TPFA total                         7            7                    7             35.33%
  TPFA                              3            3                    4              13.72%
  TPFA (ex-DP)                  1            1                    2               5.31%
  TPFA (ex-LDP)                 1            1                   1               4.96%
  TPFA (ex-YP)                   1            1                   1               6.28%
  Ind (ex-DP)                    1            1                    1               5.05%
KP                                   7            7                    7              20.43%

LDP                                 9            7                    1              20.31%
HRP                                1            0                    0                0.12%
 
DP                                  4            0                    1                 5.70%
JCP                                 7            0                    5               17.28%

Ind.                                2           0                    0                 0.59%

The result here were a shock.  The JCP surge and the LDP collapse in terms of vote share pushed the LDP seat count here from an "obvious" 7 to 1.  JCP won 5.  There were talk that KP vote might fall due to higher turnout and the breaking of the LDP-KP alliance.  Most discussions of the 3- seat district in terms of election surprises was in terms of JCP taking KP seats here.  Those talk propelled the KP into a massive GOTV operation which pushed KP into second place in all 7 districts and it was the LDP that was pushed into 4th place across the board.   The LDP collapse also garnered a surprise win for DP in one of these districts.    LDP lost one extra seat due to it nominating 2 candidates in 目黒(Meguro) district where it ended with

TPFA   41.9% elected
KP      16.8% elected
JCP     16.3% elected
LDP    12.7%
LDP    12.2%  

In the 4- seat districts LDP was lucky.  The collapse of the LDP vote would only result in wide-scale losses in 4- seat districts if DP was in a position to take advantage of it since the first 3 slots of the 4- seat district would be TPFA KP JCP.  DP was too weak to gain seats from LDP in a mass basis in the 4- seat districts.  In the 3- seat districts the fall in LDP vote share mean that the party that can win seat from LDP would be JCP which was also experiencing a vote share surge.  Result was a catastrophic defeat for LDP.

For the JCP to repeat its 2017 performance it has to hope for
a) a TPFA collapse since it is clear LDP have revived and with KP will win 2 out of 3 seats in the 7 3- member districts
b) the CDP vote tactically shifting to JCP put push out TPFA from the third spot

a) is possible but with CDP revival relative to DP bad performance in 2017 any tactical voting will be the other way around with JCP vote tactically voting  for CDP to beat out TPFA.

So we need to see how strong TPFA ends up being.  If TPFA still retain solid base of support then in  these 3- member districts it will be a close struggle between TPFA CDP and JCP for the third and last stop (as LDP and KP will clearly win 2 out of 3).

[jaichind]

Remember, for the KP, the Tokyo Prefecture election is a matter of life and death.  KP is based on the Buddhist sect Soka Gakkai which has its headquarters in Tokyo.  This means the Tokyo prefecture government gets to regulate the  Soka Gakkai.  Ever since the 1996 Tokyo subway sarin attack by the doomsday cult Aum Shinrikyo the Soka Gakkai have been living in self-imposed fear that it will get banned as cult.  There is no chance of this but I think this is sort of a self-projection.  Soka Gakkai knows in many ways it operate like a cult a at a certain level thinks it "should" be banned ergo they project that fear on to the Tokyo Prefecture government.   Ever since 1996 the KP main goal is

a) do very very well in Tokyo Prefecture elections to maximize influence over Tokyo Prefecture government
b) cozy up to the strongest party in Tokyo, which was LDP until 2016, and then TPFA after that and now back to LDP so KP is always the "ruling party."

For KP national elections are not important but Tokyo Prefecture election is the election where they will throw everything into the battle to win.  To them it is a matter of life and death.