OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Calthrina950]

I've also said before that I feel many posters on here wish that this would be a one-party country, with Democrats, and only Democrats, holding political power.

As long as the elections were free and fair, what’s wrong with this?

I much rather have a multiparty system than a single-party one. A single political party would not adequately represent the interests or the viewpoints of everyone in a country as diverse and vast as ours, and would carry inherent risks of its own. And such a party probably wouldn't be sustainable in the long term. Do you really think the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, by themselves, are capable of adequately representing the viewpoints and ideologies of all Americans?

There are millions of people in this country, on the one hand, who value abortion rights, gay rights, and progressive policies on healthcare and the economy, who wouldn't be comfortable with single-party Republican rule. And there are millions of others who value gun rights, who are pro-life, and have a more conservative outlook on economic matters, who wouldn't be comfortable with single-party Democratic rule.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Vance is better than Mandel

[Huey Long is a Republican]

I've also said before that I feel many posters on here wish that this would be a one-party country, with Democrats, and only Democrats, holding political power.

As long as the elections were free and fair, what’s wrong with this?

I much rather have a multiparty system than a single-party one. A single political party would not adequately represent the interests or the viewpoints of everyone in a country as diverse and vast as ours, and would carry inherent risks of its own. And such a party probably wouldn't be sustainable in the long term. Do you really think the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, by themselves, are capable of adequately representing the viewpoints and ideologies of all Americans?

There are millions of people in this country, on the one hand, who value abortion rights, gay rights, and progressive policies on healthcare and the economy, who wouldn't be comfortable with single-party Republican rule. And there are millions of others who value gun rights, who are pro-life, and have a more conservative outlook on economic matters, who wouldn't be comfortable with single-party Democratic rule.

Exactly. I'm a heavy supporter of the more Populist Trumpian elements of the Republican Party and would love for nothing to see the Democratic burn... and reform themselves from the ashes into something resembling a much saner party without all the Leftism and Progressivism invading it currently. There are always going to be people who will be Conservatives and there will always be people who are liberals, I understand that and I realize that we do need two parties to keep democracy stable because if one side never has their views represented at least in some way, the result is violent and horrific.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Vance is better than Mandel

Agreed, very much so (Hard to believe you and I agree on something, lol). Can't wait to see how he does in the Senate.

[Senator Incitatus]

-snip-

Just…what on Earth are you talking about? Literally his only supporters were aggressively online before a couple of weeks ago, there’s a reason he was on 4% before Trump came in to the picture.

If he wins the primary it’ll be because of Trump, if he wins the GE it’ll be because of the R next to his name - in spite of everything else about him.

If I’m guilty of overestimating people then so be it, but I think there is something deeply wrong with you if you believe a multi millionaire hedge fund guy who worked for *Peter Thiel* and changes ideologies the way normal people change clothes is ‘relatable’.

Most of his gains were because he finally started spending on ads, as everyone who knew what they were talking about predicted he would. The Trump endorsement rumors really only hit public airwaves in the last week. I would imagine most Ohioans still don't know about it or found out on the local news tonight.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

-snip-

Just…what on Earth are you talking about? Literally his only supporters were aggressively online before a couple of weeks ago, there’s a reason he was on 4% before Trump came in to the picture.

If he wins the primary it’ll be because of Trump, if he wins the GE it’ll be because of the R next to his name - in spite of everything else about him.

If I’m guilty of overestimating people then so be it, but I think there is something deeply wrong with you if you believe a multi millionaire hedge fund guy who worked for *Peter Thiel* and changes ideologies the way normal people change clothes is ‘relatable’.

Most of his gains were because he finally started spending on ads, as everyone who knew what they were talking about predicted he would. The Trump endorsement rumors really only hit public airwaves in the last week.

Ads and campaigning matter. Two candidates, one initially endorsed by Trump before plummeting in the polls and having that endorsement rescinded because he refused to campaign or spend on ads and the other being Endorsed but actually spending on ads and campaigning and thus surging because of it (though his main opponent Essentially sabotaging himself helps as well) show this very well

[MarkD]

I wonder if the field of remaining Republicans running for the primary have decided they need to distance themselves from and criticize Sen. Portman's stance on same-sex marriage? You know, say something like: I really admire a lot about Sen. Portman's legacy as a conservative, except for one big and important thing: he shouldn't have abandoned the traditional definition of marriage. Trust me, that's one way I will be significantly better than him. Maybe Timkin wouldn't say such a thing, even though she thinks it, because she's the one who got Portman's endorsement, and she wouldn't want to cross him by outwardly disagreeing with him about anything.

Or maybe there's some other issue that they might try to argue that Portman is less-than-consistently-conservative-about-it, but-I-will-be-perfectly-conservative-about-it. In other words, who's racing so hard to the far right that they would be willing to say: Portman is a RINO, and I promise you I won't be like that! I'll be better than him!

[Sub Jero]

I wonder if the field of remaining Republicans running for the primary have decided they need to distance themselves from and criticize Sen. Portman's stance on same-sex marriage? You know, say something like: I really admire a lot about Sen. Portman's legacy as a conservative, except for one big and important thing: he shouldn't have abandoned the traditional definition of marriage. Trust me, that's one way I will be significantly better than him. Maybe Timkin wouldn't say such a thing, even though she thinks it, because she's the one who got Portman's endorsement, and she wouldn't want to cross him by outwardly disagreeing with him about anything.

Or maybe there's some other issue that they might try to argue that Portman is less-than-consistently-conservative-about-it, but-I-will-be-perfectly-conservative-about-it. In other words, who's racing so hard to the far right that they would be willing to say: Portman is a RINO, and I promise you I won't be like that! I'll be better than him!

https://mobile.twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/1398310691698786307https://mobile.twitter.com/MikeGibbonsOH/status/1460389322927050757It does seem like the other candidates are trying to distance themselves from Portman

[Vespucci]

I used to say that Vance being nominated would make the race Lean/Likely rather than Safe, but that was with the idea that he'd win the primary without a Trump endorsement. I'd say the general is still Safe R but I think it's still possible, if unlikely, that Vance doesn't win the primary.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Me irl https://twitter.com/RealPData/status/1515076082634010630?t=EVllRdWSHNbb2HR4EnuZr...

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Ohio is about to have the most populist Senate delegation in the country

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's don't need OH anyways to win the EC map the only reason why Red states flirted with us in 2020 was the 2K Stimulus there arent anymore so it's back to 303 map

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

So you can literally bad mouth Trump constantly and write a book demonizing poor and working class folks and then turn around and pretend to be a hero for those people and the God king will buy it? Give me a break!

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Ok, Progress, we get it, you hate Vance and the Republican Party. Now, next time, can you put both sentences in a single post so I don't get notifications about this thread that's just a second post from you when you posted a minute and 3 seconds earlier?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Ok, Progress, we get it, you hate Vance and the Republican Party. Now, next time, can you put both sentences in a single post so I don't get notifications about this thread that's just a second post from you when you posted a minute and 3 seconds earlier?

I just deleted the second post sorry

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Ok, Progress, we get it, you hate Vance and the Republican Party. Now, next time, can you put both sentences in a single post so I don't get notifications about this thread that's just a second post from you when you posted a minute and 3 seconds earlier?

I just deleted the second post sorry

It's fine. Just remember to edit next time.

[Grassroots]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

You clearly have very little knowledge about Vance or Ohio politics in general. Let me educate you briefly.

1. The Ohio senate race in the general election in Safe R. Not only is the state GOP by about 10 points generally, but it's a red wave midterm year. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the general.

2. Vance is not the weakest candidate in the race. That quite easily goes to Mandel, who is well known for being fake and a fraud, in addition to being totally unserious. I can see why Timken or Gibbons might do better than Vance in a GE, but he's still not the weakest candidate.

3. Vance is very ideological, and more so than any other candidate in the race. While he may have joined it in the last 5 years, he really does hold a firm set of ideological convictions that fall under the National Conservative and Paleoconservative label. There's a reason why he is the favorite of ideologically driven right-wing institutions like Claremont, American Moment, and the American Conservative magazine, and why people like Tucker Carlson and Peter Thiel (who is very ideological himself and a known member of the National Conservative wing of the party) backed him very early on. Vance holds a very genuine ideology of paternalistic conservatism which is a far cry from the canned talking points and plastic nature of his opponents. There isn't a fake bone in his body, and even though he has drifted to where he is now over the past 5 years, it was a genuine shift and not driven out of political conformity. His conversion to Catholicism which occurred concurrently proves this.

Nevertheless, I am overjoyed that Vance received Trump's endorsement, and i'm enjoying the cope from left wingers and establishment Republicans alike.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

You clearly have very little knowledge about Vance or Ohio politics in general. Let me educate you briefly.

1. The Ohio senate race in the general election in Safe R. Not only is the state GOP by about 10 points generally, but it's a red wave midterm year. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the general.

2. Vance is not the weakest candidate in the race. That quite easily goes to Mandel, who is well known for being fake and a fraud, in addition to being totally unserious. I can see why Timken or Gibbons might do better than Vance in a GE, but he's still not the weakest candidate.

3. Vance is very ideological, and more so than any other candidate in the race. While he may have joined it in the last 5 years, he really does hold a firm set of ideological convictions that fall under the National Conservative and Paleoconservative label. There's a reason why he is the favorite of ideologically driven right-wing institutions like Claremont, American Moment, and the American Conservative magazine, and why people like Tucker Carlson and Peter Thiel (who is very ideological himself and a known member of the National Conservative wing of the party) backed him very early on. Vance holds a very genuine ideology of paternalistic conservatism which is a far cry from the canned talking points and plastic nature of his opponents. There isn't a fake bone in his body, and even though he has drifted to where he is now over the past 5 years, it was a genuine shift and not driven out of political conformity. His conversion to Catholicism which occurred concurrently proves this.

Nevertheless, I am overjoyed that Vance received Trump's endorsement, and i'm enjoying the cope from left wingers and establishment Republicans alike.

Vance's redemption story reminds of Cruz's in a way. In the beginning an ardent opponent of Trump and disliked the man though believed he was better than Hillary. In 2016, it was understandable for some conservatives to be wary of Trump, as we've been conned by people doing this schtick over and over again but never delivering. When Trump won, a lot of Conservatives were willing to give him a chance, including Cruz and Vance, where he could either prove them right and they can have an "I told you so" moment or be proven wrong and realize maybe Trump was the best thing for the party. My own mother was a 2000 and 2004 Bush voter and a 96 Perot voter. My Grandmother was a Democrat who last voted probably in the 70s or 80s. Both don't look Trump for his attitude and my mother said early on in the Government shutdown that Trump should be removed from office.

However, overtime both of them came over to backing Trump wholeheartedly and 2020 was the first time voted in a long time because I made sure that they would and now I'm going to help my family research candidates to find who is best for an America First Agenda. I bring up this personal information because it correlates to the Conservative movement, including Cruz and Vance, as a whole. I've always been a backer of Trump, but for more naive reasons in 2016 though I began to really educate myself in the issues that matter in 2017 and beyond.

Back on Cruz and Vance, they are the ultimate redemption story, the perfect character arc for a television show. From not being a fan of Trump to being some of his most ardent defenders and supporters didn't happen instantly lol a switch, but instead happened slowly, naturally, and overtime.

Bottom line, both men are proof of Redemption stories in Trump's eyes and just like how Cruz will be a perfect VP for Trump in 2024 for this reason, Vance will be an excellent choice for DeSantis in 2028.

Sorry for going on longer than I expected...hope you enjoyed my information splurge.

[BuckeyeNut]

lol. I don't think it matters this cycle, but Vance is a worse GE candidate than Mandel. Polls have consistently shown Ryan narrowly leading Vance while losing to Mandel. Part of the discrepancy might be name recognition, but I'm unconvinced it's the driving factor.

Polling aside, both Mandel and Vance are inauthentic candidates. That said, Mandel's been steeping in the fringe, right-wing bullish!t he spews for over a decade now. Vance, meanwhile, is a newcomer and far too online and intellectual in his framing of the issues. The difference between going to Yale and Case Western Law after Ohio State is readily apparent.

Mandel and Timken are already setting up the GE playbook on how Ryan and the Democrats should attack Vance. He's a Silicon Valley playboy who only came back to Ohio to run for office and an elitist who thinks the median Trump supporter is a racist and a redneck.

You don't even need to make it about his prior criticisms of Trump. From Adams County to Ashtabula, folks know Middletown isn't Appalachia, and Hillbilly Elegy was poorly received throughout the region for its criticisms of the locals. I expect Vance will underperform in the region, especially in the Mahoning Valley, which Ryan already represents.

None of this is to say I think Ryan will win because I don't. But Vance is not a strong candidate. Local Republican leadership has made that clear:

https://twitter.com/dlippman/status/1514733376485400584

EDIT: And note, many of the local leaders on that list are from Appalachia.

[Coldstream]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

You clearly have very little knowledge about Vance or Ohio politics in general. Let me educate you briefly.

1. The Ohio senate race in the general election in Safe R. Not only is the state GOP by about 10 points generally, but it's a red wave midterm year. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the general.

2. Vance is not the weakest candidate in the race. That quite easily goes to Mandel, who is well known for being fake and a fraud, in addition to being totally unserious. I can see why Timken or Gibbons might do better than Vance in a GE, but he's still not the weakest candidate.

3. Vance is very ideological, and more so than any other candidate in the race. While he may have joined it in the last 5 years, he really does hold a firm set of ideological convictions that fall under the National Conservative and Paleoconservative label. There's a reason why he is the favorite of ideologically driven right-wing institutions like Claremont, American Moment, and the American Conservative magazine, and why people like Tucker Carlson and Peter Thiel (who is very ideological himself and a known member of the National Conservative wing of the party) backed him very early on. Vance holds a very genuine ideology of paternalistic conservatism which is a far cry from the canned talking points and plastic nature of his opponents. There isn't a fake bone in his body, and even though he has drifted to where he is now over the past 5 years, it was a genuine shift and not driven out of political conformity. His conversion to Catholicism which occurred concurrently proves this.

Nevertheless, I am overjoyed that Vance received Trump's endorsement, and i'm enjoying the cope from left wingers and establishment Republicans alike.

If you think Vance (and Thiel) care about anything besides their bank accounts I pity you.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, candidate recruitment has (unironically) been very (and surprisingly) disappointing for Republicans this cycle. They’re extremely lucky that the environment is so favorable to them because I very much agree that this is one of those seats which would have been winnable for Democrats in a second Trump midterm, especially with the current field of candidates.

It’s funny because I think 'weak' Adam Laxalt is actually the strongest GOP recruit this cycle. OH and PA have just been disasters, and NH and AZ were also disappointing.

[Senator Incitatus]

If you think Vance (and Thiel) care about anything besides their bank accounts I pity you.

Ultra-rich people are the last people on Earth who care about their bank accounts, excluding those without bank accounts.

[Grassroots]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

You clearly have very little knowledge about Vance or Ohio politics in general. Let me educate you briefly.

1. The Ohio senate race in the general election in Safe R. Not only is the state GOP by about 10 points generally, but it's a red wave midterm year. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the general.

2. Vance is not the weakest candidate in the race. That quite easily goes to Mandel, who is well known for being fake and a fraud, in addition to being totally unserious. I can see why Timken or Gibbons might do better than Vance in a GE, but he's still not the weakest candidate.

3. Vance is very ideological, and more so than any other candidate in the race. While he may have joined it in the last 5 years, he really does hold a firm set of ideological convictions that fall under the National Conservative and Paleoconservative label. There's a reason why he is the favorite of ideologically driven right-wing institutions like Claremont, American Moment, and the American Conservative magazine, and why people like Tucker Carlson and Peter Thiel (who is very ideological himself and a known member of the National Conservative wing of the party) backed him very early on. Vance holds a very genuine ideology of paternalistic conservatism which is a far cry from the canned talking points and plastic nature of his opponents. There isn't a fake bone in his body, and even though he has drifted to where he is now over the past 5 years, it was a genuine shift and not driven out of political conformity. His conversion to Catholicism which occurred concurrently proves this.

Nevertheless, I am overjoyed that Vance received Trump's endorsement, and i'm enjoying the cope from left wingers and establishment Republicans alike.

If you think Vance (and Thiel) care about anything besides their bank accounts I pity you.

If you think Vance, who left his cushy position of influence in DC to run for senate to much scrutiny in his home state, is driven by financial gain... I actually pity YOU.

[coloradocowboi]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

You clearly have very little knowledge about Vance or Ohio politics in general. Let me educate you briefly.

1. The Ohio senate race in the general election in Safe R. Not only is the state GOP by about 10 points generally, but it's a red wave midterm year. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the general.

2. Vance is not the weakest candidate in the race. That quite easily goes to Mandel, who is well known for being fake and a fraud, in addition to being totally unserious. I can see why Timken or Gibbons might do better than Vance in a GE, but he's still not the weakest candidate.

3. Vance is very ideological, and more so than any other candidate in the race. While he may have joined it in the last 5 years, he really does hold a firm set of ideological convictions that fall under the National Conservative and Paleoconservative label. There's a reason why he is the favorite of ideologically driven right-wing institutions like Claremont, American Moment, and the American Conservative magazine, and why people like Tucker Carlson and Peter Thiel (who is very ideological himself and a known member of the National Conservative wing of the party) backed him very early on. Vance holds a very genuine ideology of paternalistic conservatism which is a far cry from the canned talking points and plastic nature of his opponents. There isn't a fake bone in his body, and even though he has drifted to where he is now over the past 5 years, it was a genuine shift and not driven out of political conformity. His conversion to Catholicism which occurred concurrently proves this.

Nevertheless, I am overjoyed that Vance received Trump's endorsement, and i'm enjoying the cope from left wingers and establishment Republicans alike.

If you think Vance (and Thiel) care about anything besides their bank accounts I pity you.

If you think Vance, who left his cushy position of influence in DC to run for senate to much scrutiny in his home state, is driven by financial gain... I actually pity YOU.

He’s not just driven by greed. He thinks the entire world should be subjected to arbitrary and grueling competition, especially the most downtrodden and disadvantaged. He also believes he is owed this senate seat because he believes the strong should dominate the weak, as you can read in his truly blasphemous and profane autobiography. And because he believes this, he also is happy to do the bidding of the powerful men who own him like Peter Thiel, and now apparently Donald Trump.

[Grassroots]

I don’t know whether Trump is just stupid, has useless advisers, or just naturally gravitates to other frauds. Vance is the most likely to lose a GE & the most likely to be disloyal should they both be in office together. Mandel, Timken actually believe in Trumpist lunacy, and Gibbons is a Rand Paul type who will go along with the isolationist stuff. Vance quite plainly believes in nothing, he’s like Lindsey Graham. There is literally no upside to this for Trump.

You clearly have very little knowledge about Vance or Ohio politics in general. Let me educate you briefly.

1. The Ohio senate race in the general election in Safe R. Not only is the state GOP by about 10 points generally, but it's a red wave midterm year. Whoever wins the GOP primary will win the general.

2. Vance is not the weakest candidate in the race. That quite easily goes to Mandel, who is well known for being fake and a fraud, in addition to being totally unserious. I can see why Timken or Gibbons might do better than Vance in a GE, but he's still not the weakest candidate.

3. Vance is very ideological, and more so than any other candidate in the race. While he may have joined it in the last 5 years, he really does hold a firm set of ideological convictions that fall under the National Conservative and Paleoconservative label. There's a reason why he is the favorite of ideologically driven right-wing institutions like Claremont, American Moment, and the American Conservative magazine, and why people like Tucker Carlson and Peter Thiel (who is very ideological himself and a known member of the National Conservative wing of the party) backed him very early on. Vance holds a very genuine ideology of paternalistic conservatism which is a far cry from the canned talking points and plastic nature of his opponents. There isn't a fake bone in his body, and even though he has drifted to where he is now over the past 5 years, it was a genuine shift and not driven out of political conformity. His conversion to Catholicism which occurred concurrently proves this.

Nevertheless, I am overjoyed that Vance received Trump's endorsement, and i'm enjoying the cope from left wingers and establishment Republicans alike.

If you think Vance (and Thiel) care about anything besides their bank accounts I pity you.

If you think Vance, who left his cushy position of influence in DC to run for senate to much scrutiny in his home state, is driven by financial gain... I actually pity YOU.

He’s not just driven by greed. He thinks the entire world should be subjected to arbitrary and grueling competition, especially the most downtrodden and disadvantaged. He also believes he is owed this senate seat because he believes the strong should dominate the weak, as you can read in his truly blasphemous and profane autobiography. And because he believes this, he also is happy to do the bidding of the powerful men who own him like Peter Thiel, and now apparently Donald Trump.

I want whatever MSNBC talking point pills you're smoking