OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[BuckeyeNut]

LOTS of candidates looking at this race.

The most likely Republican candidates seem to be:

* Jon Husted, Lieutenant Governor and former Secretary of State
* Jim Jordan, Congressman and founding Freedom Caucus member
* Josh Mandel, former Treasurer of State and Senate candidate (2012)

Other potential candidates:

* Bill Johnson, Congressman
* Frank LaRose, Secretary of State and former State Senator
* Jim Renacci, former Congressman and Senate candidate (2018)
* Steve Stivers, Congressman and former NRCC Chair
* Mary Taylor, former Lieutenant Governor and Auditor of State
* Jane Timken, Chair of the Ohio Republican Party
* J.D. Vance, venture capitalist and author of Hillbilly Elegy
* Brad Wenstrup, Congressman
* Dave Yost, Attorney General and former Auditor of State

[BuckeyeNut]

Some Democratic names being thrown around other than Tim Ryan's:

* Nan Whaley, Dayton Mayor and former Gubernatorial candidate (2018)
* John Cranley, Cincinnati Mayor
* Kathleen Cycle, former Portage County Commissioner and candidate for Secretary of State (2018)
* David Pepper, former ODP Chairman and candidate for Attorney General (2014)
* Emilia Sykes, Ohio House Minority Leader
* Danny O'Connor, Franklin County Recorder and former Congressional candidate (2018)
* Lou Gentile, former State Senator

[BuckeyeNut]

Some more Republican names emerging:

* David Joyce, Congressman and former Geauga County Prosecutor
* Matt Dolan, State Senator and family owner of the Cleveland Indians
* Mike Gibbons, businessman and former Senate candidate (2018)

Congressman Troy Balderson (OH-12) has also taken himself out of the running. One of few big names to do so at this early stage.

[BuckeyeNut]

My guess is Dr. Acton didn’t want to run.  Even so, Ryan is the wrong guy.  We’d be better off either running a rising star to raise their profile or running someone like Nan Whaley who will over-perform in a region or demographic that is actually open to voting for us (even if you think we can stop the bleeding with WWC voters, Tim Ryan won’t over-perform with them the way Zack Space* did in 2018* Ryan only beat frigging Christina Hagen by single-digits). 

I suppose it could be worse, at least this means we’re probably not running Michael Coleman (great Mayor, terrible statewide candidate, also hasn’t run for anything since 2006).

*Space definitely has some real crossover over appeal in Appalachia - at least to a point - but even that wasn’t enough to beat Keith Faber in a D wave and IIRC Faber was about as weak as you can get while still being generic R.

Nah. He'll over-perform in the Valley, which is still critical to statewide success, for better or worse. Yes, Ryan only beat Hagan by single digits, but Hagan is an extraordinary name in and around Youngstown, and he still outran Biden by about 5%. Plus, his district is getting chopped anyway.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://theintercept.com/2021/03/22/ohio-abortion-amy-acton/
I know it's the Intercept, but this could really be something Ryan could use to attack Acton on in the primary, if these polls sorta take away the electability argument. (Not that it matters for the general ofc)

I have it on good authority that if Acton gets in, which seems increasingly unlikely, neither Planned Parenthood nor NARAL will support her in the primary.

[BuckeyeNut]

We can have some Split races, all I know is that as long as Fetterman and Nelson win, we can win NH, GA, OH, NC, FL and IA, D's need some wave insurence in case SCOTUS they judicial review strike some of our Progressive legislation and King said he isn't on board yet for Crt packing

Biden is holding firm at 54 Percent Approvals, don't underestimate D's in OH, Trump won Mahoning County and along with Toledo can swing the state back blue

What the Hell are you talking about? Toledo never stopped being a major Democratic stronghold. There is not a massive reserve of untapped swing voters in Northwest Ohio.

[BuckeyeNut]

The latest scuttlebutt is that Acton won't run at all. 314 Acton has been rather desperately trying to get her to run--having pledged $5 million in the primary if she does--and they've gotten nothing for it.

Planned Parenthood and NARAL have both said they won't support Acton if she does get in, given her execution of DeWine's pro-life policies as Director of the Ohio Department of Health, and she evidently blew off a meeting with EMILY's List.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

Nan Whaley is so much better than John Cranley, it's not even funny.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

How about John Boccieri?

Boccieri couldn’t even win his own state senate district in 2018, his career in elected office is over.

Man, Ohio Democrats are in sorry shape.  It's hard to even identify promising up-and-comers.  Yech!

The aforementioned Whaley, Boggs, and Klein come to mind, as do: Shannon Hardin, Liz Brown, Aftab Pureval, Wade Kapszukiewicz, Mark Fogel, Allison Russo, Beth Liston, Casey Weinstein, Phil Robinson, and Jessica Miranda.

Kathleen Clyde, Dan Ramos, and some other former legislators aren't exactly hot commodities anymore, but they also wouldn't be bad. The same goes for longtime figures like David Leland, who have resisted the urge to jump for higher office.

Ultimately, gerrymandering and broken machines that quash youth participation in the cities have really thinned the bench.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think having Tim Ryan as the Senate candidate and someone like Kevin Boyce as the gubernatorial candidate would boost the fortunes of both.  Maybe not enough to push either over the finish line, but still...I like Ryan's odds a lot more if he's running alongside a complementary candidate for governor.

Trust me, you don't want Boyce anywhere near the statewide ticket.  The guy is an Ed FitzGerald waiting to happen.  Of the folks who've been discussed as candidates, John Cranley seems like our best bet as insurance in case DeWine loses his primary to some clown like Renacci or even Warren Davidson.

Nan Whaley is so much better than John Cranley, it's not even funny.

Why?  On paper Cranley seems like a much stronger candidate, but I’d be curious to know your thoughts.

Whaley has a bigger profile both in state and out of state, and much of Cincinnati can't stand Cranley. He got very lucky in 2017, from what I can tell.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/JamesArkin/status/1379503137552281600

As I've been saying for a while now. Bummed you beat me to it. lol

[BuckeyeNut]

Wow, that ad was terrible. The awkward, obviously scripted dialogue...the "trying to explain complex issues to a child in a way that he could understand and still failing" angle...the obviously green-screened factory shot...felt more like a Tim Robinson sketch than an actual ad. People won't care about the nitty gritty of this thing, but Tim Ryan has got to be one of the most awkward people in politics.

One, it's not an ad. It's a launch video. You cut 30-second spots from it for ads.

Two, the factory shot was great. Youngstown Sheet + Tube is iconic, and watching it come back to life is powerful symbolism.

The biggest problem with the launch video is the length, but nobody other than the most diehard politicos watches launch videos in the first place.

[BuckeyeNut]

For some context about Ryan's seat being gerrymandered - it was a D pack when it was created in 2012, and has moved extremely far to the right. In 2020 he only won by like 52/47. Even without redistricting, there would be a real chance of this seat flipping in 2022.

Slightly off, Tim won the district 52-45 while Biden carried it 51-48, but it's still a monumental change from when Tim won the district 72-28 in 2012.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/dsamuelsohn/status/1392264844938723329

Anyone who launches an exploratory committee and isn’t running for POTUS is an absolute goober.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1395761123463421959

Dolan currently serves as a State Senator in the Cleveland suburbs, having won re-election by 9% as Biden carried his district by 6%. Dolan’s well-positioned to be the only moderate in a crowded race full of MAGA chuds. While that probably isn’t enough to pull off a win, it helps that his family are literal billionaires. He has a capacity to self-fund that neither Timken nor even Vance has.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1395761123463421959
Dolan currently serves as a State Senator in the Cleveland suburbs, having won re-election by 9% as Biden carried his district by 6%. Dolan’s well-positioned to be the only moderate in a crowded race full of MAGA chuds. While that probably isn’t enough to pull off a win, it helps that his family are literal billionaires. He has a capacity to self-fund that neither Timken nor even Vance has.

Mandel, Timkin, and Vance is a pretty divided Trumpist field.  I’d say if at least one of Davidson, Johnson, or maybe even Mike Turner (for geographic politics reasons, especially if he runs a Trumpy campaign) jumps in too and Joyce stays out then he has a very real shot.

Mike Turner has a pretty moderate reputation, so I think he'd actually take that lane, agreed on the other two.

Yeah, but his base (especially once you get outside of Dayton proper and it’s immediate suburbs) is the sort of area where Dolan would get killed.  Turner being a regional favorite son who goes nowhere in the rest of the state could easily be a net positive for Dolan.  That said, Davidson or Johnson jumping in would obviously be better than Turner for Dolan.

Of the three, I would think Johnson is the most likely to jump in.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1395761123463421959

Dolan currently serves as a State Senator in the Cleveland suburbs, having won re-election by 9% as Biden carried his district by 6%. Dolan’s well-positioned to be the only moderate in a crowded race full of MAGA chuds. While that probably isn’t enough to pull off a win, it helps that his family are literal billionaires. He has a capacity to self-fund that neither Timken nor even Vance has.

Mandel, Timkin, and Vance is a pretty divided Trumpist field.  I’d say if at least one of Davidson, Johnson, or maybe even Mike Turner (for geographic politics reasons, especially if he runs a Trumpy campaign) jumps in too and Joyce stays out then he has a very real shot.

Dolan is also a Cleveland Indians executive...shows that money talks....Dolan may be McConnell's favorite candidate since he is corporate......

Maybe. Dolan also introduced Governor DeWine’s gun-control package after the Dayton shooting in August of 2019. It was a policy proposal that made no one happy. Conservatives hated it because it didn’t maintain the status quo, and liberals hated it because it was incredibly weak. It’ll be a problem for Dolan.

[BuckeyeNut]

Appalachian Congressman Bill Johnson will not be running for Senate next year. I’d wager the Republican field is probably set at this point.

Edit: Assuming Vance and/or Dolan make it official.

[BuckeyeNut]

Appalachian Congressman Bill Johnson will not be running for Senate next year. I’d wager the Republican field is probably set at this point.

Edit: Assuming Vance and/or Dolan make it official.

You don’t think Turner might jump in?

I'm doubtful. Although that said, Turner might have a lane.

Dolan, Gibbons, Mandel, Moreno, and Timken are all NEOH candidates, while Vance doesn't have a geographic base. Republicans might be ascendant in the northeast, which has long been Ohio Democrats' base, but there are still more primary votes outside of it than within.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/JoshMandelOhio/status/1405980032816713728

Yikes....

Turning a race that should be likely/Safe R into a competitive race... but then again it's Ohio lmao

It weird how ten years ago this is the type of tweet we'd expect from a 12 year old edgy meme lord, now we get it from a (leading?) Senate candidate and it doesn't cause any response from me other than "lol".

Have you seen Josh Mandel?

[BuckeyeNut]

So is this Timken's to win now? I think she scared away every other congressperson and sitting statewide row officer and Mandel is done. I guess there is JD Vance but I'm skeptical

No, he isn't. lol

It's also possible Dayton-area Congressman Mike Turner still gets in, though I wouldn't give him good odds.

[BuckeyeNut]

Vance is a buffoon. I’m not sure what anyone sees in him.

https://twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1413087935012950018?s=21

[BuckeyeNut]

After nearly a year of former Treasurer Josh Mandel, former GOP Chair Jane Timken, and celebrity author JD Vance all trying to out-Trump one another, with a few more rich gadflies in the form of investment Banker Mike Gibbons, blockchain enthusiast Bernie Moreno, and State Senator Matt Dolan, we have our first public poll of the OH-SEN Republican primary.

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1471897319746555912

These results seem to align with the various internal polls campaigns have released. The one surprise here is Gibbons ahead of Timken, though he is the only one who seems to be running ads. I've seen Moreno's ads once or twice, but Gibbons is on TV whenever I go out.

Unlike Moreno and Timken, Gibbons is willing to spend his millions on this race. I guess this is potentially a good sign for Dolan, should he decide he wants to tap into his family wealth, as he could swamp every other Republican in the race combined. He might even be able to buy a big enough megaphone to drown out Donald Trump's dislike, though that seems less likely.

With Mandel just over 20% and most of the Republican primary electorate undecided, it is all downhill from here!

[BuckeyeNut]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Not happening.

Mandel only loses the primary if at least one of the more serious candidates drops out, and even then, that might not be enough. Regardless, that seems highly unlikely at this point.

[BuckeyeNut]

I still think Vance will pull it off, but it might be wishful thinking.
Trump said he will endorse someone in this race and I have a strong feeling it'll be Timken.

Not happening.

Mandel only loses the primary if at least one of the more serious candidates drops out, and even then, that might not be enough. Regardless, that seems highly unlikely at this point.

All of the candidates are more serious than Mandel so I expect at least one of them will drop out.

I don't see why anyone thinks the candidate with by far the highest name recognition in the field who is nonetheless consistently polling at <25% (and is likely to trail four other candidates in spending) is anything close to the favorite. I'd put him third, maybe fourth. Only has a real shot if Trump does the unexpected and endorses him or the more serious candidates implode.

Never seen a weaker candidate referred to as a front-runner, let alone a lock.

They might be more serious in so far that they aren't quite as deranged on Twitter, but they're not as serious in terms of appeal to the base. They are also all far too into themselves to drop out for the betterment of the state. Maybe Dolan drops out, but his doing so won't substantively benefit anyone enough to make a difference given his low polling numbers.

Mandel is only sub-25% in polls paid for by his primary opponents. If you average the last few polls together, you get a clearer picture:

Mandel - 29%
Vance - 13%
Timken - 11%
Gibbons - 9%
Dolan - 4%
Moreno - 2%
Undecided - 32%

Aggregates are generally more accurate than any single poll, and the aggregate puts Mandel within the margin of error of leading the total number of undecided voters. That pretty much seals the deal in a field this divided.