Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[MasterJedi]

4-3 strike down of the mask mandate but the WISC,  conservatives again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The mandate is to protect consumers, it's silly that Conservative don't see it that way

If they take over Congress they will lift all the restrictions on lockdowns and we aren't out of the woods yet

[walleye26]

4-3 strike down of the mask mandate but the WISC,  conservatives again.

Although if I remember correctly, didn’t it expire Monday anyway?

[Never Made it to Graceland]

4-3 strike down of the mask mandate but the WISC,  conservatives again.

Although if I remember correctly, didn’t it expire Monday anyway?

This prevents it from being enacted again.

The Republican Party won't be happy until all the poors are dead.

[walleye26]

4-3 strike down of the mask mandate but the WISC,  conservatives again.

Although if I remember correctly, didn’t it expire Monday anyway?

This prevents it from being enacted again.

The Republican Party won't be happy until all the poors are dead.

Ah, that makes sense. Well, at least this is almost over.

[MasterJedi]

4-3 strike down of the mask mandate but the WISC,  conservatives again.

Although if I remember correctly, didn’t it expire Monday anyway?

This prevents it from being enacted again.

The Republican Party won't be happy until all the poors are dead.

Ah, that makes sense. Well, at least this is almost over.

Bodes very poorly for the next pandemic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Covid is not almost over we are in it for the long haul, as long as there are homeless people, like TB, they transmitt Covid

Politicians care about Donations not a Govt jobs Guarentee and we need it that Gillibrand talked about

[Non Swing Voter]

for a swing state Wisconsin seems to produce a lot of rabid, borderline psychotic conservatives.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once Johnson is gone, WI can bread a new batch of Conservatives, he is polarizing and always was look what he did with Hunters
 Biden and Benghazi Hilary

[redjohn]

Tomorrow, Deb Kerr faces off against Dr. Jill Underly in Wisconsin's first statewide general election since last November. Kerr came out in support of discriminating against trans youth in schools just recently in an attempt to shore up more GOP support, and Underly has been campaigning alongside Democratic candidates and with the explicit help of WisDems since the primary. Some more right-leaning Democrats in Wisconsin have come out in support of Kerr in addition to the slew of Republicans, under the guise of Kerr supporting private schools.

[MasterJedi]

for a swing state Wisconsin seems to produce a lot of rabid, borderline psychotic conservatives.

Matches up perfectly in that Wisconsin conservatism (at least in the east) is still ruled by talk radio.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is tomorrow. Might be fun to watch.

The election is officially nonpartisan and is actually on paper a D vs. D runoff, both candidates Deborah Kerr and Jill Underly are self-described Democrats who endorsed Biden. However Kerry is backed by lots of right-wing interests, supports vouchers and charter schools, and received a fairly notable endorsement in February:

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1361747440865574913

Jill Underly meanwhile is backed by most liberal activist groups, teachers' unions, all Democrats in Wisconsin's Congressional delegation and almost all Democrats in the Wisconsin State Legislature. So this might end up being a partisan election in terms of results.

Underly btw is actually superintendent of a rural school district in southwestern Wisconsin, while Kerr is of a school district in suburban Milwaukee (but not WOW. An inner ring Milwaukee County D-voting area.) So an interesting reversal of roles.

Anyway let's watch the results.

[Not Me, Us]

Has there been any polling for this race?

[brucejoel99]

This was Evers' job before he was Governor, so who knows: a future Gov. could very well be made (or broken) tomorrow.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was Evers' job before he was Governor, so who knows: a future Gov. could very well be made (or broken) tomorrow.

Ron Kind is running for Gov in 2026 definitely

[MT Treasurer]

Obligatory special election thread post template:

If [insert my favored candidate here] wins, it’s a harbinger of the environment/likely results/turnout patterns of the 2022 elections; if [insert my favored candidate here] loses, you shouldn’t read too much into it because special elections are almost never reliable indicators of a broader national trend.

[Xing]

If Kerr wins:

WI-SEN 2022 (with Johnson): Likely D -> Tilt D
WI-SEN 2022 (with Gallagher): Titanium R -> Vibranium R
WI-GOV 2022: Toss-Up -> Likely R
WI-PRES 2024: Toss-Up -> Likely R
WI-SEN 2024: Lean R -> Safe R

If Underly wins:

WI-SEN 2022 (with Johnson): Likely D -> Titanium D
WI-SEN 2022 (with Gallagher): Titanium R -> Likely R
WI-GOV 2022: Toss-Up -> Likely D
WI-PRES 2024: Toss-Up -> Likely D
WI-SEN 2024: Lean R -> Tilt R

[Hope For A New Era]

don't forget:

reports of [adjective] turnout in [place] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Kerr wins:

WI-SEN 2022 (with Johnson): Likely D -> Tilt D
WI-SEN 2022 (with Gallagher): Titanium R -> Vibranium R
WI-GOV 2022: Toss-Up -> Likely R
WI-PRES 2024: Toss-Up -> Likely R
WI-SEN 2024: Lean R -> Safe R

If Underly wins:
..Dems are gonna win WI regardless
WI-SEN 2022 (with Johnson): Likely D -> Titanium D
WI-SEN 2022 (with Gallagher): Titanium R -> Likely R
WI-GOV 2022: Toss-Up -> Likely D
WI-PRES 2024: Toss-Up -> Likely D
WI-SEN 2024: Lean R -> Tilt R

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

don't forget:

reports of [adjective] turnout in [place] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

Reports of aquatic turnout in Myanmar suggest artichoke for Republicans

[Drew]

https://wisconsinvote.org/election-results/

Here’s a results page for tonight.  I hope they’ll have a map for the superintendent race.  This contains the major races tonight: the superintendent race, the specials in AD-89 and SD-13, as well as the appeals court races in Districts 2 and 3.

The appeals court races will be interesting to watch in the absence of a Supreme Court race.  District 2 has an Evers appointee (Davis) running against a conservative (Grogan).  District 3 has two conservatives running for an open seat, with Gill running to the right of Cveykus.  Both districts are pretty conservative, with 2 including much of eastern WI excluding Milwaukee Co.  3 includes much of Northern WI.  However, Lisa Neubauer was able to win the 2nd last year, but Davis could struggle considering he doesn’t have Neubauer’s family legacy or last year’s dynamics to work with.

[redjohn]

https://projects.jsonline.com/topics/election/2021/4/6/wisconsin-spring-election-results.html

Map available here for superintendent race.

[Gass3268]

Underly won the Town of Medina in Dane County by 81 votes. Biden only won the town by 4 votes.

[Nyvin]

A bunch of Waukesha coming in put Kerr in the lead.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerr only leads in Brown County by 4 points with only one precinct from Green Bay in...if these patterns hold she's not going to get the margins she needs.