Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

If the Pidyomnyy bridge (name in the tweet is wrong) is destroyed, it means there are no more direct connections from Romania to Odessa.

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1519187123903111169

This is a pretty involved bluff. They are basically stuck in the East at this point.

[Omega21]

If the Pidyomnyy bridge (name in the tweet is wrong) is destroyed, it means there are no more direct connections from Romania to Odessa.

https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1519187123903111169

This is a pretty involved bluff. They are basically stuck in the East at this point.

They are not as stuck as they were, unfortunately.

The reality is that the thread here portraits a picture of a Kiev rush 2.0., but that is not the case.

Even a more conservative source like the ISW says so at this point:

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1519089509442461696

Point being, they are much more effective at trading casualties and slowly seizing ground, which is in contrast to the Northern "excursion", where they were basically fish in a barrel (or in metal caskets).

Also, keep in mind:

Open field drivability: The assessment is based on the soil types and the typical spring weather conditions in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/Bundesheerbauer/status/1517781250223878145

However, I do agree that they are not able to push on Odesa until (if at all) they seize the Donbas.

[Logical]

News from the Donbas, it appears that the Ukrainians have retreated from the salient north of Lyman.
https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1519308985731588096
The Russian strategy for this phase of the war is intense artillery strikes followed by massed armor advances which is how they were actually trained to fight. Political pressure from the top forced them to fight unconventionally in the North and leave their supply lines open to raiding.

[It’s so Joever]

Yikes, this is how Russia will win. We need to send NATO troops now and demand Putin back down. Let him know going any further than Donbass will result in WW3.

[Mopsus]

So how exactly do you fight back against mass artillery strikes?

[jaichind]

So how exactly do you fight back against mass artillery strikes?

Drag it out and defense in depth.  Do not pull all your men and equipment at the front and be ready to retreat to the next line of defense.  Slowly bleed the Russians of equipment even as they advance by trading space for time.  At some point, the Russian economy will not be able to support the sustained losses. 

[Mopsus]

So how exactly do you fight back against mass artillery strikes?

Drag it out and defense in depth.  Do not pull all your men and equipment at the front and be ready to retreat to the next line of defense.  Slowly bleed the Russians of equipment even as they advance by trading space for time.  At some point, the Russian economy will not be able to support the sustained losses. 

Well that does appear to be what the Ukrainians are doing. I guess the question is how much land they have to lose before attrition renders Russian advances untenable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Russian army is not presently making significant advances on any front. Doing better than during the Battle of Kyiv/Kiev is really not a major accomplishment.

[afleitch]

The Russian army is not presently making significant advances on any front. Doing better than during the Battle of Kyiv/Kiev is really not a major accomplishment.

It's one of the slowest, and least successful assaults on European territory by another European aggressor since the advent of modern warfare.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The Russian army is not presently making significant advances on any front. Doing better than during the Battle of Kyiv/Kiev is really not a major accomplishment.

It's one of the slowest, and least successful assaults on European territory by another European aggressor since the advent of modern warfare.

Putin is evil and ruthless, but also weak and incompetent. Which makes a Mussolini analogy more fitting than a Hitler analogy as far as WWII analogies go, I suppose.

[Person Man]

The Russian army is not presently making significant advances on any front. Doing better than during the Battle of Kyiv/Kiev is really not a major accomplishment.

It's one of the slowest, and least successful assaults on European territory by another European aggressor since the advent of modern warfare.

Putin is evil and ruthless, but also weak and incompetent. Which makes a Mussolini analogy more fitting than a Hitler analogy as far as WWII analogies go, I suppose.

That’s a relief that I’m not the only one who has been thinking that way. That is, if Putin is like any historical figure, it’s Mussolini. maybe Enver Pasha and the Committee of union and progress?

[Storr]

Nice try losers. You can't get anything past military nerds on the internet.

https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1519372564644220930?s=20&t=9e_VH0EZJ57Bb...

[Person Man]

Nice try losers. You can't get anything past military nerds on the internet.

https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1519372564644220930?s=20&t=9e_VH0EZJ57Bb...

The sneakiest country on the planet has gotten lazy!

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1519119242611855362?s=20&t=Jv1JTtALI7CHlv...

[GoTfan]

Yikes, this is how Russia will win. We need to send NATO troops now and demand Putin back down. Let him know going any further than Donbass will result in WW3.

And sending in NATO troops won't?

[Omega21]

Good read

https://twitter.com/MMazarr/status/1519160793790656513

[Omega21]

This is pathetic, but not unexpected.

Germany has been cucking itself for a long time due to some WW2 shame fetish. This is visible everywhere, from the state of their military to even the 2006 World Cup, when a ton of German journalists "were concerned" about nationalism because so many people flying the German Flag in the streets lol.

As a reaction to the Russian attack in Ukraine, Germany must now strengthen its own defenses, said the SPD politician. An example: “On paper, for example, we have 350 Puma infantry fighting vehicles, of which 150 are actually operational,” reported the minister. “It's no different with the Tiger attack helicopter. Only nine out of 51 machines can take off.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundeswehr-laut-christine-lambrecht-nur-150-schuetzenpanzer-puma-angeblich-einsatzbereit-a-5614855e-80f3-4160-9727-933d62b1261e

[Hindsight was 2020]

The Russian army is not presently making significant advances on any front. Doing better than during the Battle of Kyiv/Kiev is really not a major accomplishment.

Not only is Russia not making any significant advances but they doing so while sustaining a causality rate they can’t afford for example
https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1519353710190682114
At this point the best outcome for Russia for the battle of Donbas is a moral victory we’re they might gain enough of the East to satisfy Putin ego at the expense of leaving the army completely drained and sitting ducks for when Ukraine with superior western weapons and a wave fresh conscripts coming in is able to launch a massive counter attack. And that’s just best case scenario the most likely is either a stalemate or an outright Ukraine win here

[Storr]

I'm starting to think the rumors of Putin using May 9th to declare full mobilization are increasingly likely to be true:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1519417943955808257?s=20&t=Qi2nim3...

[Storr]

One thing that Russia hasn't altered for the better in the last few months is the sheer amateurishness - at best - of their "false flags".

Exhibit Z:

https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1519437937083133953?s=20&t=Qi2nim3AmK...

[Omega21]

One thing that Russia hasn't altered for the better in the last few months is the sheer amateurishness - at best - of their "false flags".

Exhibit Z:

https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1519437937083133953?s=20&t=Qi2nim3AmK...

Oh no, it might be far worse than we thought...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing that Russia hasn't altered for the better in the last few months is the sheer amateurishness - at best - of their "false flags".

Exhibit Z:

https://twitter.com/EerikNKross/status/1519437937083133953?s=20&t=Qi2nim3AmK...

Oh no, it might be far worse than we thought...

All will bow before the might of Gabon and its soon-to-be-powerful empire.

[Person Man]

I'm starting to think the rumors of Putin using May 9th to declare full mobilization are increasingly likely to be true:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1519417943955808257?s=20&t=Qi2nim3...

This is North Korea behavior or maybe this is going to be a continent-wide suicide by cop. We will see.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm starting to think the rumors of Putin using May 9th to declare full mobilization are increasingly likely to be true:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1519417943955808257?s=20&t=Qi2nim3...

This is North Korea behavior.

"Special military operation to demilitarize NATO"
Lol

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I predicted earlier in this thread that Russia singling out Bulgaria would be a mistake.  Now, their Finance Minister announces:

https://www.twitter.com/SomniNaut/status/1519339777836859392

It could go nowhere, but it’s the biggest step to supplying Ukraine that Bulgaria has (publicly) taken. The rest of the thread offers some insight into his perspective and a potential shift in attitudes in Bulgaria towards Russia.