2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BlueSwan]

That all said, I THINK we can all agree that Florida should never again be considered part of a Democrat's path to 270. It should just be written off as a state we hope to win in a landslide at best. There genuinely are brighter hopes for the likes of GA and NC as far as states we can truly flip D permanently.

A state that is always close and awards 29 electoral votes should absolutely not be written off. Trump is a unique candidate with a unique kind of appeal. It is far from certain that Florida would vote similarly in say a Kamala Harris vs Mike Pence election or whatever.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Nobody should be popping champagne for Georgia just yet, but in the very likely case of an extremely-slim margin either way, here's the laws surrounding recounts in the state:

Recount Laws/Guidelines (GA)

There are no automatic recount provisions for the state of Georgia.  Under Georgia law, recounts may be requested under the following conditions:

-  If the margin between candidates is less than or equal to 0.5%, a candidate may request a recount within two business days following the certification of results.  

-  An election official may order, at his or her discretion, a recount if it appears there is a discrepancy or error in the returns. In precincts using paper or scanned ballots, any candidate or political party may petition the election official to make such an order. In precincts using voting machines, any three electors of the precinct may do the same.

-  For constitutional amendments and binding referendum questions, the Constitutional Amendment Publication Board may, at its discretion, request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% within two business days following the certification of results.

-  The Secretary of State may request a recount at his or her discretion if a candidate for federal or state office petitions the office regarding an apparent discrepancy or error in the returns.

Source: "Recount Laws in Georgia".  Ballotpedia.  https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Georgia

**Oh, and just for those wondering:  0.5% of an estimated 4,960,000 is around 23,000 votes. 

Wet blanket party pooper.

[Crumpets]

Small ballot drop in PA - not keeping track of exact numbers, but no more than a couple dozen ballots. Trump's lead currently stands at 18,049 (0.3%).

[Alben Barkley]

LOL, this I saw on the GA PredictIt page:

If it is any consolation; I had a zoom call with the rest of the democrats earlier this evening...word came down from the deep state that as soon as Biden gets 270 locked up we can all stop pretending the coronavirus is real.

Hope you MAGATs didn’t waste too much much money on the Chinese made masks our governors made you buy.

[Rand]

Friendship ended with Florida. Georgia is my new friend now.

I’ve always preferred peaches over oranges.

[Beet]

I actually think it's probably worse that I remained calm on election night only to take out my pent-up anger on Floridians LOL. Even though it's pretty clear now that we're gonna win. So stupid and unnecessary.

That all said, I THINK we can all agree that Florida should never again be considered part of a Democrat's path to 270. It should just be written off as a state we hope to win in a landslide at best. There genuinely are brighter hopes for the likes of GA and NC as far as states we can truly flip D permanently.

Florida has 29 electoral votes, and poised to gain more, so it can't be written off entirely.

The way I see it, Biden put an African-American woman on the ticket.

The Democrats spent much of the summer talking about BLM.

They didn't spend much time talking about a $15 minimum wage (which passed in FL) or immigration.

They said Latinos aren't part of their path to victory and suppressed the Hispanic vote.

Meanwhile Trump changed his home state to FL and his team put in the work with Cubans.

If you don't put in the effort, you don't get the result. If you put in the effort, you get a better result. Maybe that should be the lesson Democrats take instead.

If Democrats prioritized African-Americans over Latinos, the results show in their narrow wins in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Pennsylvania... while the loss in Florida was so wide it would have remained a loss if Biden got Clinton’s numbers with Trump, which he never could. You must consider both sides of the ledger and we have a President-Elect Biden, a Senator Peters, and the slim chance of additional senators from Georgia.

Certainly, but saying "We did the right strategy to narrowly eke out a win in one election" (which I admit JOMD probably did) is not the same as saying "We must abandon Florida/Latinos forever."

We're not always going to be running against Trump and Biden's narrow coalition of a shrinking midwestern Black population, Never Trump WOW Republicans, and the remnants of the WWC who came back for Scranton Joe can certainly be built upon/improved upon.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Nobody should be popping champagne for Georgia just yet, but in the very likely case of an extremely-slim margin either way, here's the laws surrounding recounts in the state:

Recount Laws/Guidelines (GA)

There are no automatic recount provisions for the state of Georgia.  Under Georgia law, recounts may be requested under the following conditions:

-  If the margin between candidates is less than or equal to 0.5%, a candidate may request a recount within two business days following the certification of results.  

-  An election official may order, at his or her discretion, a recount if it appears there is a discrepancy or error in the returns. In precincts using paper or scanned ballots, any candidate or political party may petition the election official to make such an order. In precincts using voting machines, any three electors of the precinct may do the same.

-  For constitutional amendments and binding referendum questions, the Constitutional Amendment Publication Board may, at its discretion, request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% within two business days following the certification of results.

-  The Secretary of State may request a recount at his or her discretion if a candidate for federal or state office petitions the office regarding an apparent discrepancy or error in the returns.

Source: "Recount Laws in Georgia".  Ballotpedia.  https://ballotpedia.org/Recount_laws_in_Georgia

**Oh, and just for those wondering:  0.5% of an estimated 4,960,000 is around 23,000 votes.  

Wet blanket party pooper.

Oh, I don't think a recount will change anything except maybe adding a few votes here and there.  And it may not even matter in the EC total.  All depends on what PA and AZ do. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

LOL, this I saw on the GA PredictIt page:

If it is any consolation; I had a zoom call with the rest of the democrats earlier this evening...word came down from the deep state that as soon as Biden gets 270 locked up we can all stop pretending the coronavirus is real.

Hope you MAGATs didn’t waste too much much money on the Chinese made masks our governors made you buy.

Deluded.

[Crumpets]

LOL, this I saw on the GA PredictIt page:

If it is any consolation; I had a zoom call with the rest of the democrats earlier this evening...word came down from the deep state that as soon as Biden gets 270 locked up we can all stop pretending the coronavirus is real.

Hope you MAGATs didn’t waste too much much money on the Chinese made masks our governors made you buy.

Deluded.

I think it's a joke.

[Benjamin Frank]

What does Georgia's flip say about North Carolina?

It was SUPPOSED to be the next Virginia.

Turns out, that may be Georgia instead...

Is the implication simply that Dems do better in any state where a large part of their population is part of an exceptionally large metro area???

Interesting theory, let's see:
Arizona is heavily Phoenix and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Colorado is somewhat heavily Denver and suburbs. Went Democratic.
Delware is heavily New Castle County. Went Democratic
Georgia is heavily Atlanta and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Illinois is heavily Chicago and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Massachusetts is somewhat heavily Boston and suburbs. Went Democratic
Michigan is somewhat heavily Detroit and suburbs. Went Democratic
Minnesota is heavily Minneapolis/St Paul and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Nevada is heavily Las Vegas and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
New York is heavily New York City (and suburbs) Went Democratic (though the suburbs on Long Island seem to be offside.)
Oregon is heavily Portland and suburbs. Went Democratic
Pennsylvania is increasingly Philadelphia and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
Washington is heavily Seattle and suburbs. Went Democratic

You may be on to something here.

Oklahoma? Alaska? Nebraska? Kentucky? South Dakota? All have a greater % of pop in their largest city than Georgia (or MA, MI, DE for that matter)

Order is 1. New York, 2. Alaska 3. New Mexico, followed by IL, NV, AZ, NE, then something like SD, OR, OK, RI, KY

Fair point with Anchorage and suburbs, but as for the rest of your point, how could you not notice the analysis is based on the metro areas, the major city AND its suburbs?  I did after all write "and its suburbs" every time.

Go back and look at all those other states based on metro areas as a percentage of population.  Louisville and its suburbs are approximately 1/6 of the population of Kentucky.  Omaha and it's suburbs are slightly over 1/3 the population of Nebraska.  Oklahoma City and its suburbs are about 1/5 the population of Oklahoma.

In all the states I mentioned, its major metro area comprises at least close to half the population of the state. (I think it's over 50% in all cases but Philadelphia and maybe Detroit.)

[Alben Barkley]

LOL, this I saw on the GA PredictIt page:

If it is any consolation; I had a zoom call with the rest of the democrats earlier this evening...word came down from the deep state that as soon as Biden gets 270 locked up we can all stop pretending the coronavirus is real.

Hope you MAGATs didn’t waste too much much money on the Chinese made masks our governors made you buy.

Deluded.

I think it's a joke.

LOL it is indeed.

The idea is to trick MAGAts, and some of them do indeed seem to be stupid enough to fall for it.

[Brittain33]

Certainly, but saying "We did the right strategy to narrowly eke out a win in one election" (which I admit JOMD probably did) is not the same as saying "We must abandon Florida/Latinos forever."

Ok, then. It doesn't seem like Democrats should try to pursue Florida unless we have specially reason to believe that the conditions of the election favor a Democratic path there. And that has not literally been the case since the 2000 election; it was only the size of Obama's wins that had him carry the state. We recognize it is, dare I say it, fools' gold for Dems.

And absolutely no Democrat is saying anything as absurd as "abandon Latinos forever."

[pppolitics]

Time to replace Jefferson Davis, Robert E. Lee, and Stonewall Jackson in Stone Mountain with Abraham Lincoln, Ulysses S. Grant, and William T. Sherman!

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Democrats shouldn't target Florida. Screw Florida.

[Splash]

Just a reminder that the outstanding absentee ballot number in PA is based on subtracting those already counted from the total amount of AVs recorded by mid-day on 11/2. It doesn't include absentee ballots received late on 11/2 or on election day, hence the varying estimates of how many ballots remain uncounted.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1324695927521742849

[wbrocks67]

Just a reminder that the outstanding absentee ballot number in PA is based on subtracting those already counted from the total amount of AVs recorded by mid-day on 11/2. It doesn't include absentee ballots received late on 11/2 or on election day, hence the varying estimates of how many ballots remain uncounted.

So this seems to explain why 440K were requested in Philly but only 358K returned... b/c that 358K figure is only as of midday 11/2?

[Inmate Trump]

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1324695927521742849

I sincerely hope there is enough sensible people surrounding the utter stupidity of Donald Trump to make things as smooth and peaceful of a transition as possible.

[Alben Barkley]

I've tried to be a good man throughout my life. I've failed more often than not. I'll readily admit that. But there is one man I've idolized who actually HAS been a truly great human being, one of the best.

It is HIM who this victory should be dedicated to. Nobody else.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

I just saw a montage of Trump supporters chanting “STOP THE COUNT” in Michigan and “COUNT THE VOTES” in Arizona. These people are truly beyond any hope...

[Kuumo]

I've tried to be a good man throughout my life. I've failed more often than not. I'll readily admit that. But there is one man I've idolized who actually HAS been a truly great human being, one of the best.

It is HIM who this victory should be dedicated to. Nobody else.

I think John Lewis deserves at least an equal amount of credit.

[Beet]

Certainly, but saying "We did the right strategy to narrowly eke out a win in one election" (which I admit JOMD probably did) is not the same as saying "We must abandon Florida/Latinos forever."

Ok, then. It doesn't seem like Democrats should try to pursue Florida unless we have specially reason to believe that the conditions of the election favor a Democratic path there. And that has not literally been the case since the 2000 election; it was only the size of Obama's wins that had him carry the state. We recognize it is, dare I say it, fools' gold for Dems.

The Democrats have literally never nominated a Latino candidate for Senator or Governor since the 2000 election, and their congressional delegation has 1 Latino in it, whereas the Republicans have had several. The state Party hasn't been doing a good job at reaching to voters, especially this year.

Edit: If you're going to rec a post that says "screw Florida" then you're not engaging in good faith anyway. So just shut up.

[Inmate Trump]

Does anyone know if we'll get enough votes counted in either PA and/or NV today, so that networks can finally call this race for Biden?

[Alben Barkley]

I've tried to be a good man throughout my life. I've failed more often than not. I'll readily admit that. But there is one man I've idolized who actually HAS been a truly great human being, one of the best.

It is HIM who this victory should be dedicated to. Nobody else.

I think John Lewis deserves at least an equal amount of credit.

True.

But as far as living persons go, Jimmy should get it.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

How many ballots left in GA including military?

Here you go, SN: 

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1324675958553612288