2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[European Lefty]

People saying that the Democrats should abandon Florida:

1) How are you going to get control of the senate back and keep it without at least one FL seat?
2) What's your backup plan for when razor-thin majorities in AZ and GA go the other way in a presidential election?

[BlueSwan]

Does anyone know if we'll get enough votes counted in either PA and/or NV today, so that networks can finally call this race for Biden?

I have a feeling that the networks are only waiting for Biden to overtake Trump in the official PA count. There really should be plenty of evidence for calling it already, but the optics of calling it while Trump is "ahead" are really bad, especially with all of his supporters claiming a rigged election.

[Inmate Trump]

Does anyone know if we'll get enough votes counted in either PA and/or NV today, so that networks can finally call this race for Biden?

I have a feeling that the networks are only waiting for Biden to overtake Trump in the official PA count. There really should be plenty of evidence for calling it already, but the optics of calling it while Trump is "ahead" are really bad, especially with all of his supporters claiming a rigged election.

I agree.  I just wonder if there's enough PA vote coming in today to put Biden over the top?

It would really be best for the country's collective sanity to have this race not be tied up over the weekend and going into next week.

[Alben Barkley]

People saying that the Democrats should abandon Florida:

1) How are you going to get control of the senate back and keep it without at least one FL seat?
2) What's your backup plan for when razor-thin majorities in AZ and GA go the other way in a presidential election?

1. Theoretically at least we could get it within weeks with GA alone.

2. The hope I guess is that they continue to trend D.

Ultimately, I truly think at this point that even TX is the safer long-run bet than FL. Biden got more votes than any Democrat in history, more votes than Trump in 2016, flipped Tarrant County. It wasn't enough this year, but within the next decade it should be, especially without Trump voters coming out in force to vote for their idol.

Florida is a cursed state where every time it seems we make gains, we sustain greater losses elsewhere in the state. It truly is fool's gold more than anything else.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Does anyone know if we'll get enough votes counted in either PA and/or NV today, so that networks can finally call this race for Biden?

I have a feeling that the networks are only waiting for Biden to overtake Trump in the official PA count. There really should be plenty of evidence for calling it already, but the optics of calling it while Trump is "ahead" are really bad, especially with all of his supporters claiming a rigged election.

I agree.  I just wonder if there's enough PA vote coming in today to put Biden over the top?

There very probably is.

[DaleCooper]

Florida is and always should be a priority for the Democrats. They need to totally rebuild the Florida Democratic Party, though.

[Benjamin Frank]

The polling firms need to conduct a poll about their polls.  

More seriously though, for those paying attention, in addition to Ann Selzer in Iowa, the polling firm behind Investors Business Daily (TIPP) has been very accurate for three elections in a row now.

I don't know what Investors Business Daily's TIPP is doing that the other firms aren't, but they are the gold standard in the Trump area. (Which I sadly don't think is over.)

[BudgieForce]

Screw Florida.

Democrats should still keep trying here.

[BlueSwan]

People saying that the Democrats should abandon Florida:

1) How are you going to get control of the senate back and keep it without at least one FL seat?
2) What's your backup plan for when razor-thin majorities in AZ and GA go the other way in a presidential election?

1. Theoretically at least we could get it within weeks with GA alone.

2. The hope I guess is that they continue to trend D.

Ultimately, I truly think at this point that even TX is the safer long-run bet than FL. Biden got more votes than any Democrat in history, more votes than Trump in 2016, flipped Tarrant County. It wasn't enough this year, but within the next decade it should be, especially without Trump voters coming out in force to vote for their idol.

Florida is a cursed state where every time it seems we make gains, we sustain greater losses elsewhere in the state. It truly is fool's gold more than anything else.

Obama still won Florida twice.

TX looks fairly good long term, but even a decade is a loooong time in politics.

There's no such thing as a cursed state. Republicans have just been more effective in Florida. It is not at all like they are winning it with ease.

Trump has unique appeal to a certain set of latinos.

[wbrocks67]

Does anyone know if we'll get enough votes counted in either PA and/or NV today, so that networks can finally call this race for Biden?

I have a feeling that the networks are only waiting for Biden to overtake Trump in the official PA count. There really should be plenty of evidence for calling it already, but the optics of calling it while Trump is "ahead" are really bad, especially with all of his supporters claiming a rigged election.

I agree.  I just wonder if there's enough PA vote coming in today to put Biden over the top?

There very probably is.

It's not probably, there is. Biden just needs Philly alone to put him over the top, and that will likely put him like 20K over the top.

[Panda Express]

Some parts of Florida looked good for the Dems. Duval County, for example, is clearly a Tilt D county going forward. Miami-Dade was only 5 points more Dem than Duval lol

[wbrocks67]

The polling firms need to conduct a poll about their polls.  

More seriously though, for those paying attention, in addition to Ann Selzer in Iowa, the polling firm behind Investors Business Daily has been very accurate for three elections in a row now.

I don't know what Investors Business Daily is doing that the other firms aren't, but they are the gold standard in the Trump area. (Which I sadly don't think is over.)

They had Trump winning the popular vote in 2016

[tjstarling]

People saying that the Democrats should abandon Florida:

1) How are you going to get control of the senate back and keep it without at least one FL seat?
2) What's your backup plan for when razor-thin majorities in AZ and GA go the other way in a presidential election?

Bush ‘04 won by 5 points. The same year the Pubs also flipped a senate seat. Two years prior Jeb won what was supposed to be a competitive gubernatorial race by double digits. Maybe Dems should have given up on FL then too? No. Florida is too large, and, yes, too competitive to give up on and who knows what the next few years will bring. It’s clear the party needs serious on the ground investment in the state. Trump won FL by 3 points does that make it safe R? No more than Biden’s almost 3 point win makes Michigan safe D.

[wbrocks67]

Some parts of Florida looked good for the Dems. Duval County, for example, is clearly a Tilt D county going forward. Miami-Dade was only 5 points more Dem than Duval lol

The margins were pretty good for Dems pretty much everywhere except for Miami Dade, right?

[Alben Barkley]

I am closer to truly believing in god than I have been in years.

I'm starting to believe Georgia flipping was divine intervention intended to reward Jimmy Carter for all his goodness and kindness throughout these decades.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What votes are still outstanding in Georgia?

[DaleCooper]

Does anyone know if we'll get enough votes counted in either PA and/or NV today, so that networks can finally call this race for Biden?

I have a feeling that the networks are only waiting for Biden to overtake Trump in the official PA count. There really should be plenty of evidence for calling it already, but the optics of calling it while Trump is "ahead" are really bad, especially with all of his supporters claiming a rigged election.

I agree.  I just wonder if there's enough PA vote coming in today to put Biden over the top?

There very probably is.

It's not probably, there is. Biden just needs Philly alone to put him over the top, and that will likely put him like 20K over the top.

I'm sure the votes are there, but the question is will they get reported today? It's been any minute now for about 72 hours, lol, so I'm quite skeptical.

[Horus]

Some parts of Florida looked good for the Dems. Duval County, for example, is clearly a Tilt D county going forward. Miami-Dade was only 5 points more Dem than Duval lol

The margins were pretty good for Dems pretty much everywhere except for Miami Dade, right?

They also slipped in Broward and Palm Beach, I think the Jewish vote may have shifted right a little bit. Osceola was bad as well.

The Tampa and Jacksonville metros were very good for Dems.

[BlueSwan]

Does anyone know if we'll get enough votes counted in either PA and/or NV today, so that networks can finally call this race for Biden?

I have a feeling that the networks are only waiting for Biden to overtake Trump in the official PA count. There really should be plenty of evidence for calling it already, but the optics of calling it while Trump is "ahead" are really bad, especially with all of his supporters claiming a rigged election.

I agree.  I just wonder if there's enough PA vote coming in today to put Biden over the top?

There very probably is.

It's not probably, there is. Biden just needs Philly alone to put him over the top, and that will likely put him like 20K over the top.

I don't think they are questioning that. I think tey are questioning whether this is coming TODAY. I believe it is, but with the snails pace we are moving at, the question is reasonable.

[vitoNova]

Obama won FL twice.  And he campaigned--and delivered--on normalizing relations with Coobah.

Trump was the ONLY Republican who would have undone this eventual normalization.  Not even President Marco Rubio would have done this.  

And right-wing Cubans will no longer have a reason to vote GOP.  

Florida will once again trend blue.

Rural whites will continue answering their damn phones anytime NBC called their homes.

And thus, the polling industry will be restored to its formal glory.

To paraphrase the Old Negro Spiritual, "Oh Happy Day."

[Alben Barkley]

This is honestly how I feel, and I hope it's how Der Fuhrer Trump feels too.

The walls are closing in!

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

What votes are still outstanding in Georgia?

I don't have a specific breakdown for you, but there's reportedly "a bit under 10K" votes remaining.  

There may not be a giant drop of military ballots, though.  Tom Bonier reports on Twitter that the incoming military ballots are likely *late* military ballots and that those previously received may have already been counted. 

[Benjamin Frank]

The polling firms need to conduct a poll about their polls.  

More seriously though, for those paying attention, in addition to Ann Selzer in Iowa, the polling firm behind Investors Business Daily has been very accurate for three elections in a row now.

I don't know what Investors Business Daily is doing that the other firms aren't, but they are the gold standard in the Trump area. (Which I sadly don't think is over.)

They had Trump winning the popular vote in 2016

Oh, Ok.  I had mentioned that earlier but I thought they were slightly too favorable to Clinton in 2016. Even so, they still got the overall trend of the election correct, that it wouldn't be a landslide win for Hillary Clinton.

If it was just that one election, it could be argued they were more or less lucky that their polls skewed wrongly but in the right direction.  However, they were the most accurate pollster in this election and they were also the most accurate going back to the Obama era.

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN: Philly will dump 20K votes in 10-15 minutes.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

CNN: Philly will dump 20K votes in 10-15 minutes.