2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

WhY iS hE CaMpAiGNinG iN GeOrGiA???

[MillennialModerate]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Trump would have won the state by a narrow margin (15k votes or so) if he had done as well as Kemp in rural/small-town GA (especially in the North and Southeast), right? There were clearly some Kemp/Biden voters.

Yes. This map is 36 hours old (explains Atlanta and Savannah "swinging R") and I'll update it tomorrow, but it frankly speaks to...well, perhaps I'll just let people draw their own conclusions for now.

LOL, thanks.

Kemp/Biden #populists delivering GA for Biden

So not a single county flipped?

[Horus]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Trump would have won the state by a narrow margin (15k votes or so) if he had done as well as Kemp in rural/small-town GA (especially in the North and Southeast), right? There were clearly some Kemp/Biden voters.

Yes. This map is 36 hours old (explains Atlanta and Savannah "swinging R") and I'll update it tomorrow, but it frankly speaks to...well, perhaps I'll just let people draw their own conclusions for now.

LOL, thanks.

Kemp/Biden #populists delivering GA for Biden

So not a single county flipped?

The big county south of Augusta flipped Trump

[Alben Barkley]

Joe Biden MIGHT win Georgia by MORE than Bill Clinton did (it was like 0.6 percent).
It would be the most since Harry S. Truman in 1948 if so.

Jimmy Carter says hi.

Oops, screwed up and corrected!

[CellarDoor]

WhY iS hE CaMpAiGNinG iN GeOrGiA???

Pretty amazing, isn't it?  His last trip to the state appears to have been very important, both for taking the state on the Presidential race and making sure both Senate races go to a runoff.

[MillennialModerate]

Joe Biden MIGHT win Georgia by MORE than Bill Clinton did (it was like 0.6 percent). It would be the most since Harry S. Truman in 1948 if so.

Never mind, I'm drunk.

JFK and of course Jimmy Carter did better.

Don’t insult the GOAT

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Trump would have won the state by a narrow margin (15k votes or so) if he had done as well as Kemp in rural/small-town GA (especially in the North and Southeast), right? There were clearly some Kemp/Biden voters.

Yes. This map is 36 hours old (explains Atlanta and Savannah "swinging R") and I'll update it tomorrow, but it frankly speaks to...well, perhaps I'll just let people draw their own conclusions for now.

LOL, thanks.

Kemp/Biden #populists delivering GA for Biden

So not a single county flipped?

The big county south of Augusta flipped Trump

#TrendsAreReal

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

WhY iS hE CaMpAiGNinG iN GeOrGiA???

Pretty amazing, isn't it?  His last trip to the state appears to have been very important, both for taking the state on the Presidential race and making sure both Senate races go to a runoff.

Plus Obama and Harris in the last week. Jen O'Malley Dillon clearly knows what she's doing.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A bit early, but here's a VERY rough look at tentative Obama-Obama-Trump-Biden counties thus far.  I've excluded CA, ME, NJ, and NY because of their outstanding votes.  

[Brittain33]

Really sucks we couldn't have all the states called by page 538

If a moderator went back and deleted every post in the thread with the South Park cum guy in it we could probably make it happen.

[Alben Barkley]

They called us madmen for saying "Blue Texas."

Turns out we were geniuses for saying "Blue Georgia!"

[Beet]

I was unironically already thinking of moving to Georgia, to the metro Atlanta area.

This has genuinely emboldened me to actually do it.

I hope Buzz, Horus, Hammy, and company are ready for me!

The Democrats love to move to areas once they have already turned Blue; but if a fraction of the 4 million Californians who pad their majorities in California moved to Red states, not only would Biden have won in a landslide, but the Democrats would have flipped 8 or 9 Senate seats. Ah well. At least Georgia is purple.

[Alben Barkley]

I was unironically already thinking of moving to Georgia, to the metro Atlanta area.

This has genuinely emboldened me to actually do it.

I hope Buzz, Horus, Hammy, and company are ready for me!

The Democrats love to move to areas once they have already turned Blue; but if a fraction of the 4 million Californians who pad their majorities in California moved to Red states, not only would Biden have won in a landslide, but the Democrats would have flipped 8 or 9 Senate seats. Ah well. At least Georgia is purple.

I think it's the next VA to be honest. We thought it was AZ, but honestly now GA looks more likely.

[Alben Barkley]

What does Georgia's flip say about North Carolina?

It was SUPPOSED to be the next Virginia.

Turns out, that may be Georgia instead...

Is the implication simply that Dems do better in any state where a large part of their population is part of an exceptionally large metro area???

[McGarnagle]

What does Georgia's flip say about North Carolina?

It was SUPPOSED to be the next Virginia.

Turns out, that may be Georgia instead...

Is the implication simply that Dems do better in any state where a large part of their population is part of an exceptionally large metro area???

North Carolina looks like upside down Virginia

Goes blue once in awhile but it's more of a reflection

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

They called us madmen for saying "Blue Texas."

Turns out we were geniuses for saying "Blue Georgia!"

Those TX left of GA takes were lol.

@Millenial Moderate

[Alben Barkley]

In any game in which they don't play Kentucky from now on, I will root for Georgia.

I will also root for the Falcons, Hawks, Braves, you name it.

These motherf--kers ACTUALLY PULLED OFF A LAST MINUTE COMEBACK FOR ONCE.

If that doesn't say "2020," I don't know what does.

[Benjamin Frank]

I was unironically already thinking of moving to Georgia, to the metro Atlanta area.

This has genuinely emboldened me to actually do it.

I hope Buzz, Horus, Hammy, and company are ready for me!

The Democrats love to move to areas once they have already turned Blue; but if a fraction of the 4 million Californians who pad their majorities in California moved to Red states, not only would Biden have won in a landslide, but the Democrats would have flipped 8 or 9 Senate seats. Ah well. At least Georgia is purple.

There is a thread on that here: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=410967.0

[morgieb]

A bit early, but here's a VERY rough look at tentative Obama-Obama-Trump-Biden counties thus far.  I've excluded CA, ME, NJ, and NY because of their outstanding votes.  

Didn't Kent vote for Romney?

[Angel of Death]

Am I the only one who has more of a soft spot for Arizona going blue than Georgia?

[Benjamin Frank]

What does Georgia's flip say about North Carolina?

It was SUPPOSED to be the next Virginia.

Turns out, that may be Georgia instead...

Is the implication simply that Dems do better in any state where a large part of their population is part of an exceptionally large metro area???

Interesting theory, let's see:
Arizona is heavily Phoenix and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Colorado is somewhat heavily Denver and suburbs. Went Democratic.
Delware is heavily New Castle County. Went Democratic
Georgia is heavily Atlanta and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Illinois is heavily Chicago and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Massachusetts is somewhat heavily Boston and suburbs. Went Democratic
Michigan is somewhat heavily Detroit and suburbs. Went Democratic
Minnesota is heavily Minneapolis/St Paul and suburbs.  Went Democratic
Nevada is heavily Las Vegas and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
New York is heavily New York City (and suburbs) Went Democratic (though the suburbs on Long Island seem to be offside.)
Oregon is heavily Portland and suburbs. Went Democratic
Pennsylvania is increasingly Philadelphia and suburbs.  Likely to go Democratic
Washington is heavily Seattle and suburbs. Went Democratic

You may be on to something here.

[Alben Barkley]

I actually got temp-banned from r/neoliberal for saying "Clinton was right to ship Elian Gonzalez back to Cuba."

Literally got banned from a neoliberal subreddit for praising the policy of the most neoliberal president.

You simply cannot make this s--t up.

Oh well, don't give a f--k anymore. If Floridians are gonna be that way even in response to the most moderate candidate we were offering but Georgians are gonna be smart, might just go full leftist because who cares anymore?

[Admiral Kizaru]

Got to say, shout out to the NYT needle which had Biden ever so slightly favoured in Georgia on Wednesday early morning (two days ago!) when we still had a good chunk outstanding and Trump had a big lead.

Their modelling for them seems to be solid - probably the only good modelling during the entire election campaign.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Didn't Kent vote for Romney?

Fixed! Thank you!

[Angel of Death]

I actually got temp-banned from r/neoliberal for saying "Clinton was right to ship Elian Gonzalez back to Cuba."

Probably trauma, because that cost Gore the election.