Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 2-3, 1115 adults including 943 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-4)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, a sigh of relief by Dems that Bernie isnt gonna be nominated, again. Bernie isnt winning both OH and FL and Biden only needs to get delegates in IL, WI and NY. Biden v Trump

[Person Man]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 1-3, 1500 adults including 1134 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 48 (+1), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 51 (+3), R 38 (-2)


Interesting movement in the GCB when everything else was fairly stable.

I think even if the race is tossup and not even Lean or likely R by September/October, Democrats can make the argument that they should be kept around in Congress as a check on Trump. It’s pretty effective. No president has ever been re-elected and won back full control of Congress on their coattails. Even if Trump loses the popular vote, I would consider that a landslide.

[Kyng]

Georgia: UGA, Feb. 24-March 2, 1117 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 46

Strongly approve 38
Strongly disapprove 39

Trump 51, Biden 43
Trump 52, Sanders 41
Trump 40, Bloomberg 42
Trump 52, Warren 42

I don't doubt that Trump is popular/ahead here, but this seems a little too favorable for him.

Yea, this seems off.

Probably because they're polling "Likely Voters" in February/March.

Judging from the crosstabs, they're under-sampling younger people and minorities (for example, white people are 66% of this sample; they were 60% in 2016 according to the CNN exit poll). I suspect the younger people and minorities just aren't making it through their "Likely Voter" screen (which shouldn't be used until closer to the election anyway)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Georgia: UGA, Feb. 24-March 2, 1117 LV

Approve 54
Disapprove 46

Strongly approve 38
Strongly disapprove 39

Trump 51, Biden 43
Trump 52, Sanders 41
Trump 40, Bloomberg 42
Trump 52, Warren 42

I don't doubt that Trump is popular/ahead here, but this seems a little too favorable for him.

Yea, this seems off.

Probably because they're polling "Likely Voters" in February/March.

Judging from the crosstabs, they're under-sampling younger people and minorities (for example, white people are 66% of this sample; they were 60% in 2016 according to the CNN exit poll). I suspect the younger people and minorities just aren't making it through their "Likely Voter" screen (which shouldn't be used until closer to the election anyway)

Exit Polls tend to underestimate white old rural voters w/o college degree.

[pbrower2a]

Still, it looks as if President Trump is not in the deep trouble (underwater and up to his neck in alligators) in disapproval as he was shown to be a few months ago.

I can now imagine Trump winning Georgia but losing Texas.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 1-3, 1500 adults including 1134 RV

Adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 48 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)


RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (nc)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 48 (+1), Trump 40 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 51 (+3), R 38 (-2)


Interesting movement in the GCB when everything else was fairly stable.

I think even if the race is tossup and not even Lean or likely R by September/October, Democrats can make the argument that they should be kept around in Congress as a check on Trump. It’s pretty effective. No president has ever been re-elected and won back full control of Congress on their coattails. Even if Trump loses the popular vote, I would consider that a landslide.

If the Democrats somehow manage to win the Senate while Trump gets re-elected, I guess that wouldn't be too terrible. Still far from ideal though.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Take your pick of Morning Consult RV polls:


Morning Consult/Politico, Feb. 28-March 1, 1992 RV

Approve 44
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 25
Strongly disapprove 42


Morning Consult, March 1, 1995 RV

Approve 42
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 45

[GeorgiaModerate]

A couple of new PPP polls:

Arizona: PPP, March 2-3, 666 RV

Trump approval: 45/51

Biden 48, Trump 47
Trump 47, Sanders 46


Maine: PPP, March 2-3, 672 RV

Trump approval: 42/56

Biden 52, Trump 42
Sanders 52, Trump 42

[Person Man]

If Trump is struggling in Northern New England, maybe Dems have a chance of wrapping up Trump’s back door early. It’s good that Arizona is confirmed to be a horse race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP: March 2-3, 866 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

I don't see a recent prior from PPP for comparison.

[Badger]

If Trump is struggling in Northern New England, maybe Dems have a chance of wrapping up Trump’s back door early. It’s good that Arizona is confirmed to be a horse race.

Wouldn't be surprised at this point if Maine's 2nd District flips back.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PPP: March 2-3, 866 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

I don't see a recent prior from PPP for comparison.

Trump gets a 42/51% (-9) disapproval for his handling of the coronavirus outbreak so far.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Trump is struggling in Northern New England, maybe Dems have a chance of wrapping up Trump’s back door early. It’s good that Arizona is confirmed to be a horse race.

Wouldn't be surprised at this point if Maine's 2nd District flips back.

I still wouldn't go that far though it will definitely be closer and suggests that Trump's 2016 performance in New England, and maybe even the entire Northeast, was a fluke. Hopefully his entire election was one too.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is finished with Biden rather than Bernie is nominee. If current trends after 2018 midterm continue in SF, LA, Chicago and NYC metros, Trump will stay at 65 M while Dems reach over 70+M

[pbrower2a]

A couple of new PPP polls:

Arizona: PPP, March 2-3, 666 RV

Trump approval: 45/51

Biden 48, Trump 47
Trump 47, Sanders 46


Maine: PPP, March 2-3, 672 RV

Trump approval: 42/56

Biden 52, Trump 42
Sanders 52, Trump 42

Arizona is a must-win for Trump. With 51% disapproval he is on the margin of electability there. Between Arizona and North Carolina, Wisconsin might be a "Does Not Matter" state for Democrats in 2020. 

 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I thought I was gonna be disappointed when Biden won primary,  I am more excited, as stated above this isnt a 278 election,  it's a 413 election.  McConnell and Elaine Chao obstruction of impeachment worked, but next year, the Crts will send Trump to jail as Private Citizen,  not Prez. No one is Prez forever

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Stepping up onto my soapbox for a moment:

So it seems as though Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are stabilizing.  But in this current environment of highly-charged partisanship where pretty much everybody has a "team" that they want to win, I think it's sometimes easy to forget that there's still months and months of a long election season ahead.  Nobody (whether you love Trump or hate him) should be counting his or her chickens yet. 

Allegations of misconduct, campaign gaffes, health problems -- they're all still on the table and almost certain (in some form of another) for the incumbent or any of the candidates.  (And frankly, I can't wait for the meat of the campaigns, hehe). 

[Person Man]

Stepping up onto my soapbox for a moment:

So it seems as though Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are stabilizing.  But in this current environment of highly-charged partisanship where pretty much everybody has a "team" that they want to win, I think it's sometimes easy to forget that there's still months and months of a long election season ahead.  Nobody (whether you love Trump or hate him) should be counting his or her chickens yet. 

Allegations of misconduct, campaign gaffes, health problems -- they're all still on the table and almost certain (in some form of another) for the incumbent or any of the candidates.  (And frankly, I can't wait for the meat of the campaigns, hehe). 

This is a good time to say that we have a baseline from which the relative campaign performances can be evaluated.

Trump at 42-52-6 and consistently behind about 6 in h2h national polling, a generic ballot that indicates a wash in Congress, a tied Senate ( AZ,CO,AL,NC and ME flipping) and Trump losing PA, MI, NC, FL but holding on in WI with AZ being very close.

It’s very unlikely it will turn out this way, but this is the base line.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So it seems as though Trump's approval/disapproval ratings are stabilizing.

I'd wait for a high-quality polls. The most recent A-rated Gold Standard Poll is Fox News from FEB. 23-26, that is before outbreak started for real. The Democrats and their "Free" Press has considerably boosted their anti-Trump propaganda hoax. Looking at their other hoaxes (Russia Hoax and Impeachment Garbage), one notice, that they always work at beginning until the facts catch up. Schiff might even claim that there is a smoking gun that Trump colluded with Russia to infect Biden or something _{(just kidding)}.

If you listen to The Democrats and their "Free" Press, you might start thinking that USA's respond was like the worst in the world LOL. It is obviously false. In any case, we'll see it soon enough.


That is, I expect Trump's approval to worsen a little, rebounding when/if economy rebounds/virus is gone.

[pbrower2a]

The strongest asset that President Trump has is "the economy" which in his terms (and he has defined those terms) means the valuation of securities prices.  Those seem to have peaked at 29,568 on the DJIA, and those have since fallen by almost 4000. That is about a 12% fall from the peak.

There are warning signs that an eleven-year bull market is nearing an end (and may have reached its end). There is no magic number. But -- volatility is high (a warning sign near the top of the market). The inverted yield curve (which means that short-term borrowing at the same quality is at a higher rate than long-term borrowing) ordinarily indicates a Bull becoming a Bear. An inverted yield curve means that a credit crunch is imminent; dying businesses are going to get their credit cut off, and over-leveraged firms end up with the economic equivalent of compound fractures or third-degree burns. Add to this, consumer spending on big-ticket purchases (remodeling, cars, furniture, and appliances) find that the credit for such purposes dries up. Meanwhile price-earnings ratios are in the stratosphere while inequality of income is in the usual zone that precedes a market crash in which everything goes bad all at once.   

As an example, the Midwestern furniture chain Art Van went under this week. Sure, that retailer has been operating in one of the most distressed parts of America (heavily Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio -- ouch!). After its founder died last year, vulture capitalists bought it out and may have gutted its desirability as a retailer while saddling it with debt. So guess what happens when credit isn't available to finance profitable sales to a middle-class clientele, and the company needs more money with which to operate? Chapter 11.

OK, Art Van isn't quite Toys 'R' Us. Furniture isn't toys (although Toys 'R' Us had rather expensive toys and was one of the few retailers to sell without discounting as do its competitors such as Wal*Mart, Target, K-Mart, and -- yes -- Dollar General and Amazon.com. But if customers can't buy and debt service eats operating revenue, then what else can happen? Lenders shut the business down.

I am not saying that this is 2008 or 1929 again (both were remarkably similar at the start). It could be something worse than a correction -- a nasty bear market. Nobody knows yet. I certainly wouldn't buy in until dividends are close to the interest rate and what remains in operation is quality, at least in Big Business.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The strongest asset that President Trump has is "the economy" which in his terms (and he has defined those terms) means the valuation of securities prices.  Those seem to have peaked at 29,568 on the DJIA, and those have since fallen by almost 4000. That is about a 12% fall from the peak.

There are warning signs that an eleven-year bull market is nearing an end (and may have reached its end). There is no magic number. But -- volatility is high (a warning sign near the top of the market). The inverted yield curve (which means that short-term borrowing at the same quality is at a higher rate than long-term borrowing) ordinarily indicates a Bull becoming a Bear. An inverted yield curve means that a credit crunch is imminent; dying businesses are going to get their credit cut off, and over-leveraged firms end up with the economic equivalent of compound fractures or third-degree burns. Add to this, consumer spending on big-ticket purchases (remodeling, cars, furniture, and appliances) find that the credit for such purposes dries up. Meanwhile price-earnings ratios are in the stratosphere while inequality of income is in the usual zone that precedes a market crash in which everything goes bad all at once.   

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to help Trump politically. An economic downturn this year was already looking likely before it became a factor and Caronavirus (sic) gives him something other than him to blame that helps him lower expectations.

[Earthling]

The strongest asset that President Trump has is "the economy" which in his terms (and he has defined those terms) means the valuation of securities prices.  Those seem to have peaked at 29,568 on the DJIA, and those have since fallen by almost 4000. That is about a 12% fall from the peak.

There are warning signs that an eleven-year bull market is nearing an end (and may have reached its end). There is no magic number. But -- volatility is high (a warning sign near the top of the market). The inverted yield curve (which means that short-term borrowing at the same quality is at a higher rate than long-term borrowing) ordinarily indicates a Bull becoming a Bear. An inverted yield curve means that a credit crunch is imminent; dying businesses are going to get their credit cut off, and over-leveraged firms end up with the economic equivalent of compound fractures or third-degree burns. Add to this, consumer spending on big-ticket purchases (remodeling, cars, furniture, and appliances) find that the credit for such purposes dries up. Meanwhile price-earnings ratios are in the stratosphere while inequality of income is in the usual zone that precedes a market crash in which everything goes bad all at once.   

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to help Trump politically. An economic downturn this year was already looking likely before it became a factor and Caronavirus (sic) gives him something other than him to blame that helps him lower expectations.

Why would that help Trump?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The strongest asset that President Trump has is "the economy" which in his terms (and he has defined those terms) means the valuation of securities prices.  Those seem to have peaked at 29,568 on the DJIA, and those have since fallen by almost 4000. That is about a 12% fall from the peak.

There are warning signs that an eleven-year bull market is nearing an end (and may have reached its end). There is no magic number. But -- volatility is high (a warning sign near the top of the market). The inverted yield curve (which means that short-term borrowing at the same quality is at a higher rate than long-term borrowing) ordinarily indicates a Bull becoming a Bear. An inverted yield curve means that a credit crunch is imminent; dying businesses are going to get their credit cut off, and over-leveraged firms end up with the economic equivalent of compound fractures or third-degree burns. Add to this, consumer spending on big-ticket purchases (remodeling, cars, furniture, and appliances) find that the credit for such purposes dries up. Meanwhile price-earnings ratios are in the stratosphere while inequality of income is in the usual zone that precedes a market crash in which everything goes bad all at once.    

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to help Trump politically. An economic downturn this year was already looking likely before it became a factor and Caronavirus (sic) gives him something other than him to blame that helps him lower expectations.

Why would that help Trump?

People will tend to blame the virus and not the Republicans for the poor economy. Granted, he'd be even better off if the economy had remained good, but there was little chance of that happening even before the virus cropped up.

[Earthling]

Would be a very weak excuse. His handling of the virus-crisis is weak. He could and will blame Corona for the economic downturn, but beyond the Trump-cult, would anybody really care?