Trump approval ratings thread 1.6 (user search)
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  Trump approval ratings thread 1.6 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trump approval ratings thread 1.6  (Read 166314 times)
Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,108
« on: January 24, 2020, 06:56:46 AM »

The very honorable Pollster of Emerson has a new data-point>>>>

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/national-2020-biden-and-sanders-battle-in-two-way-race-for-democratic-nomination


RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (-1)




Women vs Men:




As you probably already know, women votes depend more on average on whoever "society" thinks they should vote for. If women could resist these social norms and become more "selfish", Trump would be much more popular Devil
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2020, 07:44:36 AM »

Since nobody posted ABC numbers yet, I will



Date: JAN 20-23, 2020
A+ (538) ABC News/Washington Post


All Adults:

Approve 44 (+6 since OCT 2019)
Disapprove 51 (-7)


RV:

Approve 47 (+8)
Disapprove 50 (-9)


Economy (RV):
Approve   58
Disapprove 36


Remove(RV)

Remove 45 (strongly - 38)
NOT remove 51 (strongly - 43)





We'll soon get Gold-Standard polls from Fox and Quinnipiac. We'll see how outlier'ish this one was.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2020, 09:40:59 AM »

JAN 19-22, 2020
A-
Fox News
1,005   RV   
Approve      45% (-)
Disapprove   54% (+1)



Summary Table Among Registered Voters
Approve Disapprove (Don’t know)
The economy 56% 38 6
Guns 42% 51 7
Immigration 41% 56 3
Foreign policy 40% 56 4
Health care 38% 54 7
Government spending 37% 55 7
Race relations 37% 56 8
The environment 35% 57 8


Remove:
Yes 50 (-)
No 44 (-2)
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2020, 07:21:54 AM »

FWIW, Trump gets 45.6% on RCP and 44.9% among "voters" on 538. Highest since Spring 2017.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2020, 03:57:33 PM »


This is actually tied for his highest approval in Quinnipiac polls lol


Yeah. So it made Trump approval go up slightly in 538 to 45.1% from this
538 adjusted it to 46/50




Removal:
Yes 47 (+1 since JAN. 8-12)
No 48 (-)


Quote
On the question of whether President Trump should be removed from office, voters remain divided, as 48 percent say the Senate should not remove President Trump from office, while 47 percent say the Senate should. That compares to a January 13 poll, conducted prior to the start of the Senate impeachment trial, in which 48 percent said the president should not be removed from office, while 46 percent said he should.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2020, 04:45:42 PM »

At this point nobody can predict what constitutes a "likely voter".


It is basically only Junk Rasmussen that uses LV screen and their contribution to the average (especially for 538, but it may be gives extra 0.1-0.3 for RCP) is pretty small . But you already knew it, didn't you?
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #6 on: January 29, 2020, 09:41:37 AM »

I'm almost certain there are those who like to claim they are "independent" because it makes them seem more nuanced.  And to all of my green avs here, this is not a shot at you.

Narrator: she was a very polite girl, but it was indeed a shot at them.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #7 on: January 29, 2020, 01:04:17 PM »

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

This is not how percentages works: -15 is only 40% of the population. Thus, independents' contribution to the population margin is 40% of 15, or six percentage points. The other three percentage points are due to there being more Democrats than Republicans.

This was their sample:

REGISTERED VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 31%
Democrat 34
Independent 26
Other/DK/NA 10

Now, I don't know what lump the "Other" ones go into. But Democrats outsampled Republicans. So that means Dems would get an even bigger portion. So if there are more Democrats than Rs, but both are at like 94/4, and then Independents are 38/53, there's no way that outcome would come to 43/52 in the end. I'm just confused by their math.

43/52 is almost exactly what those numbers come out to (assuming Other/DK/NA follows nearly the same margin as Independent).

R: +90% * 31% = +28%
D: -90% * 34% = -31%
I/O: -15% * 36% = -5.5%

The total population margin is +28-31-5.5 or underwater by 8.5%.

It looks like magic!
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2020, 06:24:35 AM »

So much for the Trump "surge".

If I am to guess the result of the impeachment process, it is that it is convincing people largely of what they believed beforehand.  Approval of the President somewhere between 38% and 43%  and disapproval slightly (but decisively and predictably!) above 50% is the norm.

Republicans are in poor shape for winning back the House, as the general ballot suggests much the same now as it did early in 2018. Republicans have only one easy pick-up in the Senate based on location (Doug Jones in Alabama) but plenty of potential losses in the Senate. I see Collins, Gardner, and McSalley as goners, and I cannot decide who makes the partisan split.  

For as much talk as you hear about how impeachment will "doom the Dems" in 2020 and "America is seeing through this farce", it really hasn't moved the needle.  

Mind you, the Democrats are surely disappointed that there hasn't been much aggregate movement against Trump, but I'm skeptical of claims that Trump's approval will start surging any day now.

This idea that nothing sinks Trump, that nothing can touch him -- the opposite seems to be true as well.

As for the Senate, I believe Collins will survive.  But McSally is in a unique and handicapped position: Kelly can start off any attack ad with "She lost your vote in 2018.  So why is Martha McSally in the Senate?"


It is a bit of straw man.

I think most people who was saying "doom the Dems" expected Trump's approval to go down under impeachment trial (= a lot of scrutiny) and went upp go upp after acquittal (= there have been nothing a real bad there). So it is actually a good news for Trump that his approval has not go down at all, possibly slightly upp.


Caveat 1. There haven't been that much polls. May be just noise.
Caveat 2. Most of these predictions was done before Bolton-thing, that is when there were no drama about the witnesses and quick acquittal was a likely outcome. Bolton has complicated the things a lot.


Still, on average I expect it help Trump and Senators. Removal is pretty unpopular in Battleground states.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #9 on: January 31, 2020, 09:16:18 AM »

Has there been any recent polls from battleground states?
Don't think so, but it is plausible, no?

538 prefers all voters. Removal +5
RCP prefers RV. It's a tie.


We know that swing-states (Trump's era) are usually 3-5% to the right of the nation.

What does people think on this question?



Quote
On balance, more Americans say the impeachment trial is being conducted unfairly than fairly. Four in 10 say it's too soon to say. Both Republicans and Democrats are inclined to think the trial is being conducted unfairly, particularly Republicans.

Both parties in Congress continue to receive negative ratings from the public. Most disapprove of the job congressional Democrats are doing (58%), as well as congressional Republicans (57%).
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2020, 01:15:56 PM »

https://www.investors.com/politics/trump-impeachment-trial-americans-oppose-removal-ibd-tipp/


JAN 23-30, 2020
A/B
IBD/TIPP
908   A   


All Adults:



Approve    44% (+1 since JAN 3-11, 2020)
Disapprove 51% (-)

Removal:
Yes 47%(-)
No  51% (+1)
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2020, 10:20:43 AM »

If only 19% think the trial is being conducted fairly something tells me this will not be widely seen as "vindication".

FWIW. There are more Republicans than Democrats who think that the trial is being conducted unfairly according to CBS poll.

Quote
On balance, more Americans say the impeachment trial is being conducted unfairly than fairly. Four in 10 say it's too soon to say. Both Republicans and Democrats are inclined to think the trial is being conducted unfairly, particularly Republicans.

Both parties in Congress continue to receive negative ratings from the public. Most disapprove of the job congressional Democrats are doing (58%), as well as congressional Republicans (57%).
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #12 on: February 03, 2020, 07:21:42 AM »

Even though NBC/WSJ has generally been one of Trump's better polls, that strongly approve number seems unusually high.  Their last 5 polls:

Current: 46/51 (strongly 36/44)
Dec: 44/54 (strongly 33/44)
Late Oct: 45/53 (strongly 31/45)
Early Oct: 43/53 (strongly 29/46)
Sep: 45/53 (strongly 33/46)

Source for the current poll: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6750229-200053-NBCWSJ-January-Poll.html

It might depend on Impeachment.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americans-stuck-to-their-views-on-trump-through-impeachment-trial-11580652187
Quote
Together, the findings suggest that impeachment hasn’t changed one durable feature of Mr. Trump’s presidency: In a turbulent political environment, Americans’ views of him remain fixed.

The poll, in fact, found some signs that the president’s political standing has strengthened in recent months, due largely to a more energized Republican Party base.

Mr. Trump’s job approval in the January poll stood at 46%, with 51% disapproving, in line with results throughout the Trump presidency. But the share who “strongly approve’’ of his job performance hit its highest mark, at 36%. Approval among independents rose to its highest level since the summer.

A separate measure found that while half of the country holds a negative overall view of Mr. Trump, 43% of voters view him favorably—the largest share since his first month in office.

Moreover, Mr. Trump has gained ground in test match-ups against Democratic candidates, though he still trails his three leading potential rivals.

To Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster who conducted the survey with Republican Bill McInturff, the results draw a picture of stability for Mr. Trump, even after an impeachment process that is expected to end this week with a Senate acquittal. “America’s attitudes about Donald Trump have hardly budged,’’ he said.

Mr. McInturff said impeachment had energized Republican voters, to the president’s benefit. “This is Trump’s strongest poll, I think, in three years,” he said.

One reason impeachment has had little impact is that Americans view the proceedings with skepticism, pollsters said. When voters were asked to supply a phrase to describe the trial, one word surfaced prominently among members of both parties: sham.

Nearly 60% in the survey, conducted Jan. 26-29, said that Democrats in the House and Senate were acting on impeachment out of political considerations, while 37% said they were focused on upholding the Constitution. The results were similar for Republican lawmakers..

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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2020, 10:18:22 AM »
« Edited: February 04, 2020, 10:23:31 AM by Russian Bear »

JAN 16-29, 2020
B
Gallup
1,033 A



Approve 49
(+5 since JAN 2-15)
Disapprove 50 (-3)



Gallup's poll is a bit outdated, but >>>


Quote
The Jan. 16-29 poll was conducted in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president's acquittal. The poll finds 52% of Americans in favor of acquitting Trump and 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

Acquit 52%
Remove 46%
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2020, 10:52:20 AM »

And so the Great Era of Unskewing has begun...


It's likely an outlier, but Trump has been getting all-time-highs in several pollsters lately. His average is near his (very low) all-time-highs.
Temporal? Perhaps.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2020, 04:53:02 PM »

The  Unskewing 2.0...


Guys, would you try this hard if the polls showed the opposite, like Trump going down under 40%?
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2020, 06:04:10 AM »

The  Unskewing 2.0...


Guys, would you try this hard if the polls showed the opposite, like Trump going down under 40%?

I would have posted that tweet even if it was the other way around.  If you've read my posts for the last several years, you should know that I post polls and interesting items about polling regardless of which side they favor.


I don't know man, I really don't know. You seem to post a lot of polls, even if they were partially mentioned in the thread, bur nor Gallup, nor ABC/WaPo pollsters... Both are live Gold Standard, both showed Removal under water and Trump gaining momentum...  Squinting


With that said, yes, these polls were of course outlier'ish and likely to bounce back, but if the same polls that showed Trump at ~40% a year ago shows him now at ~47% it tells you something.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2020, 09:37:45 AM »

The  Unskewing 2.0...


Guys, would you try this hard if the polls showed the opposite, like Trump going down under 40%?

I would have posted that tweet even if it was the other way around.  If you've read my posts for the last several years, you should know that I post polls and interesting items about polling regardless of which side they favor.


I don't know man, I really don't know. You seem to post a lot of polls, even if they were partially mentioned in the thread, bur nor Gallup, nor ABC/WaPo pollsters... Both are live Gold Standard, both showed Removal under water and Trump gaining momentum...  Squinting


With that said, yes, these polls were of course outlier'ish and likely to bounce back, but if the same polls that showed Trump at ~40% a year ago shows him now at ~47% it tells you something.

Take a look at the record.  I've posted tons of Gallup and WaPo polls, but wasn't the one to post the two recent ones only because somebody else did it first.  I post all new ones that I find (with a few exceptions, below) but I don't have an exclusive franchise on polls and do have a life that occasionally keeps me busy doing other things. Smiley

Exceptions: I don't post any daily trackers unless they start showing unusual trends.  And I don't post McLaughlin or Zogby unless they do something particularly LOLworthy.


You usually post the full results/trends even if someone mentions some results. ABC/WaPo published their poll 23th. The guy with 1 post posted some numbers 24th and then I posted the full results 26th. May be I'm paranoid, but this poll showed really newsworthy trends (even if they're likely to be very outlier'ish, at least to some degree).


Ok. It is a really off-topic. Besides that as a Trump supporter it is my duty to see Deep State everywhere  Angry





On topic>>>

A "B" Online pollster:
https://researchco.ca/2020/02/06/sotu2020/

FEB 5, 2020
B
Research Co.
1,000   A


Approve 45 (+7 since JAN 11-13, 2019)
Disapprove 51 (-7)
Not sure 4 (=)


!! Compared to their 1-year old poll. Not January 2020.



Other information>>>

All things considered, do you think Donald Trump deserves re-election as president?

Does – 41%
Does not – 55%
Not sure – 4%

As you may know, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi ripped her copy of Trump’s State of the Union address in half when he finished. All things considered, do you think Speaker Pelosi’s actions were justified or unjustified?

Justified – 42%
Unjustified – 47%
Not sure – 11%
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2020, 06:13:43 PM »

FWIW, I love Cory Booker's new algorithm  Love
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2020, 08:22:13 AM »

Approval 53%  (62% after adjustments)
Disapproval: Unknown


Source: Your favorite President
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2020, 09:37:21 AM »

Approval 53%  (62% after adjustments)
Disapproval: Unknown


Source: Your favorite President


As far as I know, the only times Trump has ever hit as high as 53% is a couple of daily Rasmussen samples (one in April, one in September).  Not even Zogby or McLaughlin has had him that high.

Trump has access to classified polls that shows him re-elected thanks to Nancy, ha!
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #21 on: February 10, 2020, 12:43:38 PM »

A+ Golden Standard Monmouth University
February 6 to 9, 2020 with 902 adults
margin of error of +/- 3.3


Approval 44 (+1)
Disapproval 50 (-2)

RV:
44 (+1)
51 (-1)



Do you approve or disapprove of the Senate’s decision to acquit Donald Trump and not remove him from the presidency?

Approve   49%
Disapprove   47%


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_021020/
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #22 on: February 10, 2020, 01:07:13 PM »

Unskewing 3.0
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2020, 02:21:14 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2020, 02:41:29 PM by Russian Bear »

B+ Golden Standard Quinnipiac University





RV:
Approve 43 (/)
53 (+1)

Economy:
Approve 52
Disapprove 44

Acqutal:

Approve   49%
Disapprove   49%



Quote
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL

Less than a week after President Trump was acquitted in the Senate impeachment trial and delivered his State of the Union address, the president's job approval continues to match his highest approval number, with 43 percent of voters saying they approve of the job President Trump is doing and 53 percent saying they disapprove. This remains essentially unchanged since mid-December 2019. Broken down along party lines, Republicans approve 89 - 9 percent, Democrats disapprove 94 - 4 percent, and independents are split with 46 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving.

Looking at how President Trump compares to his two predecessors at the same point in their re-election years, voters gave President Obama a slightly negative 45 - 49 percent job approval rating in February of 2012, and President Bush a slightly positive 48 - 45 percent job approval rating in February of 2004. Unlike President Trump, though, both presidents had hit higher approval ratings in their previous years in office. President Obama had hit a high of 59 percent approval in 2009, and President Bush received a high of 83 percent approval in 2001.

"Fresh from acquittal by the Senate, feistily throwing haymakers in every direction, the president presumably has a strong economy to ride all the way to Election Day. The Democrats are facing a reinvigorated and formidable Trump," added Malloy.

THE ECONOMY

President Trump continues to score high marks on his handling of the economy. Voters approve 54 - 42 percent of his handling of the economy, compared to his all-time high of 57 - 38 percent on January 13th, 2020. Republicans approve 97 - 3 percent, Democrats disapprove 81 - 15 percent, and independents approve 59 - 37 percent.

When asked about their personal financial situations, voters say 59 - 20 percent that they are better off financially than they were in 2016, the last presidential election year, while 19 percent say their financial situation is the same. This compares to a December 10th, 2019 survey that found 57 percent were better off, 22 percent were worse off, and 19 percent were the same.

Overall, 70 percent of voters describe the nation's economy as excellent or good and 29 percent describe it as not so good or poor. That is just slightly lower than the all-time high set on December 16th, 2019, when 73 percent said excellent or good and 25 percent said not so good or poor.
https://poll.qu.edu/search-releases/search-results/release-detail?ReleaseID=3655
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
Russian Bear
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,108
« Reply #24 on: February 10, 2020, 02:42:27 PM »

Quinnipiac has his approval at 42-55 with registered voters and 43-53 with likely  
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3655

42/55 is Favs (all-time-high FWIW)
43/53 is Approvals


Both are RV. QU does only RV.


I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day
Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.
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