Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

The strongest asset that President Trump has is "the economy" which in his terms (and he has defined those terms) means the valuation of securities prices.  Those seem to have peaked at 29,568 on the DJIA, and those have since fallen by almost 4000. That is about a 12% fall from the peak.

There are warning signs that an eleven-year bull market is nearing an end (and may have reached its end). There is no magic number. But -- volatility is high (a warning sign near the top of the market). The inverted yield curve (which means that short-term borrowing at the same quality is at a higher rate than long-term borrowing) ordinarily indicates a Bull becoming a Bear. An inverted yield curve means that a credit crunch is imminent; dying businesses are going to get their credit cut off, and over-leveraged firms end up with the economic equivalent of compound fractures or third-degree burns. Add to this, consumer spending on big-ticket purchases (remodeling, cars, furniture, and appliances) find that the credit for such purposes dries up. Meanwhile price-earnings ratios are in the stratosphere while inequality of income is in the usual zone that precedes a market crash in which everything goes bad all at once.    

SARS-CoV-2 is likely to help Trump politically. An economic downturn this year was already looking likely before it became a factor and Caronavirus (sic) gives him something other than him to blame that helps him lower expectations.

Why would that help Trump?

People will tend to blame the virus and not the Republicans for the poor economy. Granted, he'd be even better off if the economy had remained good, but there was little chance of that happening even before the virus cropped up.

If the economy should tank, then it wouldn't be due to the coronavirus, although such could serve as a pretext. The warning signs are already there -- overpriced securities whose valuation depends upon optimism that can be shattered without notice, an inverted yield curve that makes high-profile failures possible, economic inequality of the sort that exists only before market crashes... and above all, incompetent people  in charge of political and economic institutions.

Speculative frenzy is typically the last act of a bull market approaching its end. There is simply no other game in town, so to speak. When that game is over, then everything collapses.

 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Would be a very weak excuse. His handling of the virus-crisis is weak. He could and will blame Corona for the economic downturn, but beyond the Trump-cult, would anybody really care? 

Trump doesn't need to make people certain the bad economy is due to the virus, just create enuf uncertainty that those who vote for him for non-economic reasons won't be likely to factor in the economy. So far, Trump's Caronavirus (sic) problems are politically a case of him not being able to shut the F up. However, there's no reason to believe we won't see a repeat of what we've repeatedly seen since 2016.
1. Trump says something stupid and/or terrible.
2. He goes down in the polls, giving his opponents hope that this time they've got him.
3. Trump shuts up and/or changes the topic.
4. His poll numbers go back up.
5. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I've long since stopped getting into a lather because of the number of Trump's chickens that supposedly are about to finally come home to roost.

[forgotten manatee]

Would be a very weak excuse. His handling of the virus-crisis is weak. He could and will blame Corona for the economic downturn, but beyond the Trump-cult, would anybody really care?  

Trump doesn't need to make people certain the bad economy is due to the virus, just create enuf uncertainty that those who vote for him for non-economic reasons won't be likely to factor in the economy. So far, Trump's Caronavirus (sic) problems are politically a case of him not being able to shut the F up. However, there's no reason to believe we won't see a repeat of what we've repeatedly seen since 2016.
1. Trump says something stupid and/or terrible.
2. He goes down in the polls, giving his opponents hope that this time they've got him.
3. Trump shuts up and/or changes the topic.
4. His poll numbers go back up.
5. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I've long since stopped getting into a lather because of the number of Trump's chickens that supposedly are about to finally come home to roost.

Coronavirus is not comparable to previous brouhahas or scandals, much of which were manufactured by Trump anyway. If the virus spreads out of control and lots of people die, then it will become a story of epic federal mismanagement and incompetence. The federal government isn't doing nearly enough to provide test kits to states hit hard by the virus, there's reports of political overruling of health recommendations to protect senior citizens that are traveling, and then there's the President himself downplaying the growing number of cases and golfing in Florida instead of managing the crisis in DC. Trump may soon have a much bigger problem on his hands than just a sluggish economy, and it will be impossible to escape the blame, even with Mike Pence set us as the fall guy. Good luck running on a platform of cuts to health care and social services, in the midst of a global pandemic.

I hope for the sake of everyone's wellbeing that President Trump is right about the virus going away once the weather warms up. Stay healthy and safe out there, everybody.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump's approvals are gonna be right where Bush W's were in 2004, and WI, just like OH will determine the election. These 43 or 42 approvals are a distraction to the real issues of the election and Trump isnt going away and neither is Biden

3.5 percent is relatively low unemployment,  but stagnant wages not keeping up with gas, food and Housing is an issue

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Would be a very weak excuse. His handling of the virus-crisis is weak. He could and will blame Corona for the economic downturn, but beyond the Trump-cult, would anybody really care?  

Trump doesn't need to make people certain the bad economy is due to the virus, just create enuf uncertainty that those who vote for him for non-economic reasons won't be likely to factor in the economy. So far, Trump's Caronavirus (sic) problems are politically a case of him not being able to shut the F up. However, there's no reason to believe we won't see a repeat of what we've repeatedly seen since 2016.
1. Trump says something stupid and/or terrible.
2. He goes down in the polls, giving his opponents hope that this time they've got him.
3. Trump shuts up and/or changes the topic.
4. His poll numbers go back up.
5. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I've long since stopped getting into a lather because of the number of Trump's chickens that supposedly are about to finally come home to roost.

Coronavirus is not comparable to previous brouhahas or scandals, much of which were manufactured by Trump anyway. If the virus spreads out of control and lots of people die, then it will become a story of epic federal mismanagement and incompetence. The federal government isn't doing nearly enough to provide test kits to states hit hard by the virus, there's reports of political overruling of health recommendations to protect senior citizens that are traveling, and then there's the President himself downplaying the growing number of cases and golfing in Florida instead of managing the crisis in DC. Trump may soon have a much bigger problem on his hands than just a sluggish economy, and it will be impossible to escape the blame, even with Mike Pence set us as the fall guy. Good luck running on a platform of cuts to health care and social services, in the midst of a global pandemic.

I hope for the sake of everyone's wellbeing that President Trump is right about the virus going away once the weather warms up. Stay healthy and safe out there, everybody.

We haven't had lots of people die yet. Coronavirus is serious, but so far it hasn't been apocalyptic, nor is there any reason to think its likely to become that even with the poor response so far.

[roxas11]

Trump's approvals are gonna be right where Bush W's were in 2004, and WI, just like OH will determine the election. These 43 or 42 approvals are a distraction to the real issues of the election and Trump isnt going away and neither is Biden

3.5 percent is relatively low unemployment,  but stagnant wages not keeping up with gas, food and Housing is an issue

the big difference between the 2 is Bush actually spent years expanding his base of support and He pulled off getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote on election day 2004.

Trump on the other hand has done nothing like that. He has only ever tried to appeal to his base. He now claims he is trying to win over black voters but his effort does not feel genuine at all  

Bush spent years building a relationship with Hispanic voters going all the way back to his time as TX governor. he did not just show up on during election time expecting Hispanics support like trump is currently doing with black voters

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump's approvals are gonna be right where Bush W's were in 2004, and WI, just like OH will determine the election. These 43 or 42 approvals are a distraction to the real issues of the election and Trump isnt going away and neither is Biden

3.5 percent is relatively low unemployment,  but stagnant wages not keeping up with gas, food and Housing is an issue

the big difference between the 2 is Bush actually spent years expanding his base of support and He pulled off getting 40 percent of the Hispanic vote on election day 2004.

Trump on the other hand has done nothing like that. He has only ever tried to appeal to his base. He now claims he is trying to win over black voters but his effort does not feel genuine at all  

Bush spent years building a relationship with Hispanic voters going all the way back to his time as TX governor. he did not just show up on during election time expecting Hispanics support like trump is currently doing with black voters

Yes, that's why NV and CO are Bellwethers and VA, not OH anymore, but it's a 278 EC, 538 says so and so does Labato Crystal Ball and www.electionprojection.com

Granted, that election projection has WI, PA and MI going R, which is wrong, its D 278 R 260👍👍👍

[wbrocks67]

Interestingly enough, Trump's favorability is even worse (43-56) in the battleground states versus nationally (43-53) in new CNN poll

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/03/09/rel2a.-.2020.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Interestingly enough, Trump's favorability is even worse (43-56) in the battleground states versus nationally (43-53) in new CNN poll

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/03/09/rel2a.-.2020.pdf

One cannot win, except against splintered opposition, when one has an unfavorability rating of 56%. To be sure, favorability is not approval, but the two generally relate.

I do not know what the "battleground states" are as defined in this poll.  My definition would be any state that Trump won or lost by 10% or less in 2016.

[Person Man]

Interestingly enough, Trump's favorability is even worse (43-56) in the battleground states versus nationally (43-53) in new CNN poll

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/03/09/rel2a.-.2020.pdf

I'm not ready to consider anything outside of Colorado or Georgia to be battleground states.
One cannot win, except against splintered opposition, when one has an unfavorability rating of 56%. To be sure, favorability is not approval, but the two generally relate.

I do not know what the "battleground states" are as defined in this poll.  My definition would be any state that Trump won or lost by 10% or less in 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, March 5-8, 1261 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

Strongly approve 30 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 47 (nc)


Biden 52, Trump 41
Sanders 49, Trump 42

Favorability:

Biden 45/40 (+5)
Sanders 40/46 (-6)
Trump 39/58 (-19)

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNN/SSRS, March 4-7, 1211 adults including 1084 RV (change from Jan.)

Adults:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

In "battleground states" (AZ, CO, FL, GA, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NM, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI):

Adults:

Approve 44
Disapprove 52

RV:

Approve 44
Disapprove 53

[wbrocks67]

YouGov Approvals

Michigan: 45/52 (-7)
Pennsylvania: 43/54 (-11)
Wisconsin: 43/53 (-10)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/fwvdnnbigm/20200308_yahoo_primary_crosstabs.pdf

[pbrower2a]

YouGov Approvals

Michigan: 45/52 (-7)
Pennsylvania: 43/54 (-11)
Wisconsin: 43/53 (-10)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/fwvdnnbigm/20200308_yahoo_primary_crosstabs.pdf

It does not change the map, but it does establish that Trump is in deep trouble in three states of which he must win at least one (and two should he lose Arizona or North Carolina. 

 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 8-10, 1500 adults including 1191 RV

(NOTE: This week's sample is more R-friendly than usual for this poll, while last week's was more D-friendly.  Averaging them is probably a sound idea.)

Adults:

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)

---

RV:

Approve 45 (+1)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

GCB: D 47 (-4), R 42 (+4)

2020 (specific matchups not asked in prior polls):

Generic D 48 (nc), Trump 42 (+2)
Biden 47, Trump 43
Sanders 47, Trump 43

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 9-10, 1113 adults including 961 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+2)

--

RV:

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, March 6-8, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+3)

[ajc0918]

Trump's coronavirus failures are being felt in his approval polls

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Selzer, Des Moines Register: Trump just above 50% approval in its poll for the first time since the 2016 election

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/trump-approval-favorable-ratings-break-even-iowa-poll/5000775002/

Trump 51, Biden 41
Trump 53, Sanders 41

Maybe 2016 wasn't so big a freak as it seemed at first, and 2018 is not a reversion to the norm.

Still, the 51% (which is obviously enough to win the state) is likely a ceiling.  

50 A 47 D. Lean R.

Pbrower, I need to ask you the same question I asked you four years ago.
What about Michigan?

Polling is always a snapshot of the reality of the time. Reality is dynamic, and in politics that encompasses foreign policy, economic results, and the personality of the Leadership and those around that person.

I can see Trump winning nationwide if he succeeds at doing what he did in 2016 again -- grinding down the will of his opposition to vote against him because they increasingly see politics as a sordid, soiled activity. I expect him to try that again because it is his character, which really is stable. (I got a tip-off from a therapist: narcissistic people show extreme rigidity of thought, and Donald Trump is one of the most blatant examples of narcissism to have ever existed). Narcissists are nasty people with whom to deal; I would not want one as a spouse, teacher, preacher, or boss.  The question: will it work this time?

Iowa is one of the biggest agribusiness states, and it has a large portion of its population in rural areas. It could be that farmers see few pathological narcissists in real life (can you imagine a very narcissistic person staying on the family farm to do dirty, hard work?) and see them only from a safe distance, as with politicians and Hollywood celebrities.

Iowa is much more rural than Michigan and has a much-smaller minority population as a share.

It is regrettable that I cannot import the graph, Note well that approval results for Iowa have been all over the place:

Trump’s latest numbers overshadow his lowest approval rating of 35% — about a year into his presidency, in December 2017 — then coupled with a 60% disapproval. That Iowa Poll also showed just 29% of respondents felt the country was moving in the right direction, while 60% felt it wasn't.

Trump has done some things to assuage voters that he once scared. Will he continue to succeed at that? If he does, then he will win re-election. If you must do terrible things to shape the zone of election get elected, then do them early and get them over with.

(deleted because everyone knows what I think of the President)

After they flopped with the caucus and then declined to release the poll, I'm not sure how trustworthy they are. Trump could win Iowa, but I'm not sure how trustworthy Selzer is anymore.

One possible explanation. This will become irrelevant by convention time. Other things, such as the valuation of the DJIA, will matter far more.  But let those 401k's hurt, and a change of President could look very good again in Iowa.

Besides -- the binary campaign between Biden and Trump has yet to begin, and the verbal sparring is a couple months off. But for now -- I move Iowa to Lean R. 

 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[/quote]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was right the IA poll confirmed that it's a 278 to 260 election,  but MT, AZ, CO and ME are Senate takeovers and NC will remain in D Gov hands

[pbrower2a]

I was right the IA poll confirmed that it's a 278 to 260 election,  but MT, AZ, CO and ME are Senate takeovers and NC will remain in D Gov hands

Even so, there have been lots of polls suggesting that Iowa could swing back D. It may be that some of those horrid polls for Trump (including one that had him down 35-60) happened at the time in which President Trump threatened a trade war. Maybe he promised to buy back the surplus that farmers produce.  That may be a waste of the Treasury, but if it buys votes it is good politics.

It's the economy stupid -- one's personal economy.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

A couple of new PPP polls:

Kansas: March 10-11, 1567 RV

Approve 52
Disapprove 44

Trump leads both Biden and Sanders 52-40.


Wisconsin: March 10-11, 1727 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 51

Biden 48, Trump 45
Sanders 48, Trump 46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bullock is the best chance for a Senate majority,  not Barb Bollier.  Gov races are different than Senate races

[pbrower2a]

Kansas, PPP

Trump -- approve/disapprove: 52/44.

Tepid, considering that Kansas is usually rock-solid R.

Biden 40, Trump 52.

Weak enough that Trump loses Kansas if the economy melts down -- but high securities valuations that he has touted seem to have faded some.

Trump handling the economy: 55-37 sort of OK of something getting shaky.

Governor Laura Kelly (D) 44-27. Pretty good, considering that the state is Kansas. Warning: 44 could be close to her ceiling. It is Kansas (R).

Mike Pompeo 36-39 favorable/unfavorable. (Nothing to do with the economy!)

Senator Pat Roberts (R) 33-30 approval. (Oh-oh) not seeking re-election.
Senator Jerry Moran (R) 33-39 approval (Oh-oh!) up for re-election in 2022.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/KansasResults.pdf

Wisconsin, PPP

Trump approval 45-51.
Biden 48, Trump 45. Not decisive yet.

Trump on the economy 47-45 (Trump's alleged strength)

Governor Tony Evers (D) 43-37. Not bad for a newcomer recently elected in a swing state.

Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) 43-37 recently re-elected, not up for re-election until 2024.
Senator Ron Johnson (R) 35-40. Up in 2022, and apparently retiring.

This sample voted 47-45 for Trump in 2016, which is slightly more R than the state was in 2016. This is a good poll for what could be the tipping-point state.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/WisconsinGeneralResults.pdf






 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump's slow march upward of his approval rating just got yeeted