Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Ipsos poll:
Do you approve of Trump's handling of Coronavirus?

43% approve
54% disapprove

https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/thirds-americans-concerned-contracting-coronavirus-country-grapples-growing-69557806

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ABC/Ipsos poll:
Do you approve of Trump's handling of Coronavirus?

43% approve
54% disapprove

https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/thirds-americans-concerned-contracting-coronavirus-country-grapples-growing-69557806

this is...astonishingly in line with his approval ratings.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, Arizona State y Noticias Univision:

Trump approval 46, disapproval 54.

https://st1.uvnimg.com/07/2e/d0d9a91c4000996d8bcc95b85319/univisionpolling-march-arizona.pdf

Washington State, Survey USA. No approval poll, but you can imagine how unpopular Trump is in the Evergreen State if one gets these matchups:

   In a head-to-head contest with President Donald Trump today, on the eve of the Washington State primary and 34 weeks till votes are counted in the 11/03/20 general election, the contest at this hour among registered voters statewide stands:

* Biden defeats Trump by 23 points, 57% to 34%.
* Sanders defeats Trump by 21 points, 56% to 35%.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=617c3b33-8fa1-472b-84b6-a8f35f8da814

Note that I have made my model fit what I see as a "likely result" model, usually with disapproval as a kill against Trump. It is extremely hard to undo disapproval. 

 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ is one of those states that voted for Ducey and voted for Sinema,  we can see the samething happen in 2020; whereas, Trump wins AZ but Kelly wins the Senate race by a 2 pt margin

[Figueira]

ABC/Ipsos poll:
Do you approve of Trump's handling of Coronavirus?

43% approve
54% disapprove

https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/story/thirds-americans-concerned-contracting-coronavirus-country-grapples-growing-69557806

this is...astonishingly in line with his approval ratings.

Overall the polls are skewing toward disapproval.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, March 11-13, 900 RV (1-month change)

Approve 46 (-1)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 33 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Biden 52, Trump 43
Sanders 49, Trump 45

[pbrower2a]

Marist/NBC News, Arizona and Ohio:

Turning to the general election in Arizona, President Donald Trump’s job rating among registered voters in the state is 48 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove.

In a hypothetical general election matchup in the state, Biden leads Trump by 1 point among registered voters, 47 percent to 46 percent — which is in within the poll’s margin of error.


In Ohio, Trump’s approval rating among registered voters is 46 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove.

And Biden leads the president by 4 points in the Buckeye State, 49 percent to 45 percent, while Sanders is ahead by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-marist-polls-biden-holds-big-leads-over-sanders-n1160536


 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[American2020]

Marist/NBC News, Arizona and Ohio:

Turning to the general election in Arizona, President Donald Trump’s job rating among registered voters in the state is 48 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove.

In a hypothetical general election matchup in the state, Biden leads Trump by 1 point among registered voters, 47 percent to 46 percent — which is in within the poll’s margin of error.


In Ohio, Trump’s approval rating among registered voters is 46 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove.

And Biden leads the president by 4 points in the Buckeye State, 49 percent to 45 percent, while Sanders is ahead by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-marist-polls-biden-holds-big-leads-over-sanders-n1160536


 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

Maybe it's a sign blue-collar workers and working families from the Upper Midwest are fed up of Trump and ready to let him down on November.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Marist/NBC News, Arizona and Ohio:

Turning to the general election in Arizona, President Donald Trump’s job rating among registered voters in the state is 48 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove.

In a hypothetical general election matchup in the state, Biden leads Trump by 1 point among registered voters, 47 percent to 46 percent — which is in within the poll’s margin of error.


In Ohio, Trump’s approval rating among registered voters is 46 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove.

And Biden leads the president by 4 points in the Buckeye State, 49 percent to 45 percent, while Sanders is ahead by 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-news-marist-polls-biden-holds-big-leads-over-sanders-n1160536


 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

Maybe it's a sign blue-collar workers and working families from the Upper Midwest are fed up of Trump and ready to let him down on November.

Please, oh please, be true!

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1239716395006427137?s=19

I refuse to believe this is accurate when things are so bad that I strongly disapprove of the handling. Who are these people!

[T'Chenka]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1239716395006427137?s=19

I refuse to believe this is accurate when things are so bad that I strongly disapprove of the handling. Who are these people!

Wait until 5,000+ Americans are dead. You will see that approval rating drop. I hope it doesn't happen, but Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.

Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.

You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

[T'Chenka]

Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

Quoted for posterity.

Let's check back on that prediction in 2 months time in the USA, and see how the logic of your argument unfolds.

You have 9,907 deaths remaining.

Two questions for you:

1 - Why do you not trust experts and people who's career is pandemics and epidemics and diseases? From a logical perspective, why would you know better than them?

2 - IF 5,000+ people die, nevermind 10,000+, do you deny that it will hurt Trump's election chances?

[pbrower2a]

In both Arizona and Ohio, the registered voters would be enough to dump Trump. Newer voters are likely to be younger -- largely under 40. Such will hurt Trump.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1239716395006427137?s=19

I refuse to believe this is accurate when things are so bad that I strongly disapprove of the handling. Who are these people!

Heavy Trump sample.

[wbrocks67]

NPR/Marist/PBS:

Trump approval: 43/50 (-7)
Trump approval on Coronavirus: 44/49 (-5)

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_2003151338.pdf#page=3

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Wait until 5,000+ Americans are dead. You will see that approval rating drop. I hope it doesn't happen, but Penn Quaker Girl assured me that mathematically we can assume that 10,000+ will die AT MINIMUM. She studies / works with epidemics so I respect her advice regarding COV-19.

If only about 10,000 die, it will be considered quite successful despite having been easily preventable. 10,000 is nothing. The only way this is ugly is if head north of 50. The ends are not how this should be judged though, it's the weeks and weeks of failure

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden approval is 48 to 50 percent and Trump is at 45 to 54 percent.  Ohio just proved that it's a Trump state, since it has moved its primary to June, DeWine is a Trump conservative. If I were Biden, I wouldn't spend time in IA or OH, which are fools gold for Dems, just like VA and WI are for Rs.

Spend all the time you need in MI, WI and NV

[Person Man]

Biden approval is 48 to 50 percent and Trump is at 45 to 54 percent.  Ohio just proved that it's a Trump state, since it has moved its primary to June, DeWine is a Trump conservative. If I were Biden, I wouldn't spend time in IA or OH, which are fools gold for Dems, just like VA and WI are for Rs.

Spend all the time you need in MI, WI and NV

I wouldn't worry about Nevada, Virginia, or Colorado. He needs to focus on Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and North Carolina. If things are improving, I would focus on downballot races in Georgia and Texas. If his campaign in struggling in September, I wouldn't simply retreat back into the Blue firewall but tell people to split their tickets and not give Trump a blank check on power.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will probably campaign in MT on behalf of Bullock, AZ on behalf of Kelly and NH on behalf of Volinsky. Aside from that its WI and PA. Cooper in NC is gonna win and NC is probably a wave insurance seat for Senate, with Cunningham. But, dont do the Hilary strategy and campaign in FL with 12 days left without going to WI

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, March 2-13, 1019 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Gallup noted a discernable increase in Trump's approval rating around the time he was acquitted by the U.S. Senate. Now, his approval rating is back to where it was before that bounce. Whether the decline reflects the fading of the post-acquittal rally or a reaction to the emerging coronavirus threat is unclear.

[wbrocks67]

Gallup, March 2-13, 1019 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Gallup noted a discernable increase in Trump's approval rating around the time he was acquitted by the U.S. Senate. Now, his approval rating is back to where it was before that bounce. Whether the decline reflects the fading of the post-acquittal rally or a reaction to the emerging coronavirus threat is unclear.

Or Gallup should just admit that their sample was way too R heavy.

[Person Man]

Ironically in 538, perception's of Trump's performance has improved slightly from roughly -11 to -10. It could just be that he again takes the credit from those who did well in mess. It's just as likely to be noise at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, March 15-17, 1500 adults including 1129 RV

Adults:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (+4)

Strongly approve 25 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 28 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

2020 (RV only):

Generic D 48 (nc), Trump 40 (-2)
Biden 48 (+1), Trump 41 (-2)
Sanders 48 (+1), Trump 41 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 49 (+2), R 39 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), March 16-17, 1115 adults including 978 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-2)


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)