GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597764878986792960

This man says one thing but does another. Fraud.

[Tekken_Guy]

I haven't been super active about this but a few notes:

Anyway you slice it, the current EV numbers are objectively good for Warnock? How good is up to debate, but turnout seems is highest in metro Atlanta, black turnout is way up, and young people are showing solid numbers. Consider that in the 2022 midterm, it seems like GA had an R-leaning electorate, especially with the margin Kemp and other generic Rs were re-elected by.

The question is if Walker can make up that deficit with the remaining days and ofc E-Day. Right now, I'm leaning pretty strongly towards no, but you can't completely count him out given how strange elections can be.

It really seems like in the Atlanta metro, Dems have built up a pretty energized, enthusiastic, and reliable GOTV machine which has been doing wonders since 2020. It's moreso downstate that I'm a bit more worried about; black turnout in southern GA was clearly down from previous cycles in November, leading to some pretty hard right shifts in much of the "black-belt". This was a theme we saw throughout other key southern states like VA and NC.

I also feel like looking at the campaigns, Warnock seems to be running on a pretty "upbeat" and happy message, not about being a moderate hero, but about general unity and optimism for the future. Warnocks campaign has done a really effective job at painting him as positive and non-ideological figure.

Walker seems to be running a bit more of the negative campaign, likely because right now he's the one facing all these scandals. His campaign is trying to revive some of the same old attacks from the 2021 runoffs to try and make Warnock the one with the baggage, but it seems like too little too late.

Also, just looking at their social media, Warnock's is far superior. There's a clear theme, you have a lot of videos of regular people/organizers explaining why they're voting Warnock and whatever, and videos of Warnock just out and about and giving speeches. Walkers seems a bit all over the place. His twitter pfp rn is literally a shirtless photo of him with boxing gloves which is telling considering he's running for Senator; I wouldn't be surprised if his logic is that big muscles will help him do better with women or smtg.

Yeah I’m not exactly seeing many good signs for Walker right now. His pathway was largely dependent on Democratic complacency.

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1597767177402486784

Republicans should be deeply embarrassed to vote for this man

Always fun to watch someone lose control of a metaphor in real time.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597763079819112449

It'll be interesting to see if it actually breaks the full one-day record (AIP+ABM), which was yesterday and was 322,769. As of his final update yesterday, the number grew almost another 80k once lagging county data and mail ballots were factored into the second (Tuesday morning) update.

Presumably if there's any meaningful amount of in-person vote left to be tabulated, even with far fewer ABMs delivered today when compared to yesterday (in all likelihood), it'll exceed the total one-day vote count: only need another 13,686 votes to be recorded for it to happen.

If such happens, it'll actually be more impressive than even Monday given that Monday included like 5 days' worth of stockpiled mail ballots that weren't processed over the holiday.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah I’m not exactly seeing many good signs for Walker right now. His pathway was largely dependent on Democratic complacency.

I actually disagree with this — his pathway is just as dependent on persuasion as it is on Republican turnout, and it was never really dependent on a drop-off in Democratic turnout (which was never realistic in the first place). Re: the first point — there’s a reason the Walker people have been hitching their wagons to Kemp, and it’s not because of turnout. While only a fraction of those non-Walker/Kemp voters may be persuadable in the runoff election, they’re numerous enough to make a difference in what is still a 50/50 state.

I never bought Democrats becoming "complacent" in this race, nor was there ever any reason to believe that would be the case. Not only is it hard to overstate how reliable their coalition in GA has become, but it’s also never really been the case that Democratic and minority turnout is particularly low in the South, even in runoff elections.

Walker should be more worried about GOP turnout (again) lagging behind Democratic turnout than about Democratic turnout being particularly high. He can mitigate the first problem, he can’t do anything about the second one.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah I’m not exactly seeing many good signs for Walker right now. His pathway was largely dependent on Democratic complacency.

I actually disagree with this — his pathway is just as dependent on persuasion as it is on Republican turnout, and it was never really dependent on a drop-off in Democratic turnout (which was never realistic in the first place). Re: the first point — there’s a reason the Walker people have been hitching their wagons to Kemp, and it’s not because of turnout. While only a fraction of those non-Walker/Kemp voters may be persuadable in the runoff election, they’re numerous enough to make a difference in what is still a 50/50 state.

I never bought Democrats becoming "complacent" in this race, nor was there ever any reason to believe that would be the case. Not only is it hard to overstate how reliant their coalition in GA has become, but it’s also never really been the case that Democratic and minority turnout is particularly low in the South, even in runoff elections.

Walker should be more worried about GOP turnout (again) lagging behind Democratic turnout than about Democratic turnout being particularly high.

Walker did very poorly with swing voters in the first round, and without Senate control on the line the case for him has not gotten any stronger with that group,

Honestly, who’s going to vote for Walker who didn’t already do so in the first round? If he wants to win he’s going to need to find new voters to close the gap.

[GALeftist]

One key issue for the persuasion angle is that I think many people held their noses and voted Walker because they wanted an R senate, but now that that's off the table, those people have less of an incentive to do so again unless they're huge nerds who are deeply invested in Ds not having committee majorities or whatever (or partisan hacks, but they were always gonna vote Walker).

[Adam Griffin]

So far in the 2022 runoff election, 833,470 people have voted.

329,059 voted on Tuesday - breaking the previous one-day record from yesterday. This may or may not be the final number for Tuesday: we'll see in the morning.

52.0% White
35.2% Black
9.4% Other
1.8% Asian
1.6% Latino

55.6% Female
44.0% Male

7.0% 18-29
11.3% 30-44
37.8% 45-64
43.9% 65+

[KaiserDave]

Republicans tried to nuke Warnock's character in 2021 and came up empty. Trying that again when the Republican candidate is Herschel Walker? Count me skeptical, very skeptical.

The approvals are baked in, it's a turnout game. Can Walker get enough Republicans to the polls to beat out Democrats and Warnock's advantage among independents? Time will tell.

[Adam Griffin]

To all those standing in line for an hour or more (many of whom are high-propensity voters): stop putting yourself (and others less fortunate) through this in future elections!

It took me maybe 3-4 minutes to complete the state-sponsored online mail application process and another 3 minutes to complete, seal, sign and throw my ballot in the mailbox upon arrival. A lot of these people waiting forever to vote do have computers, internet and printer/scanner combos - and if they did such, those who don't wouldn't be languishing in unnecessarily long lines. I didn't even put postage on it because USPS guarantees election mail delivery and bills the counties afterward (as it should be: return election postage should be taxpayer-covered; if enough pressure is placed on these systems, maybe they'll embrace such).

While I downloaded the absentee master file a couple of days ago and confirmed it through nerdy means, confirmation via the state that my ballot was received & accepted finally showed up in the voter portal tonight:

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1597767177402486784

Republicans should be deeply embarrassed to vote for this man

Didn’t trump also basically destroy his own idea of a border wall in a speech? Something about “not being able to get down if you climb it… well, maybe a rope would work”

I don’t see this impacting much.

[Adam Griffin]

So, I'm increasingly feeling confident in saying that the runoff EV will be blacker than it was in the general election. The only doubt here to this is whether turnout for these final 3 days continues to grow well beyond its already record-shattering trajectory.

Note: "black" is defined here in all instances by the SoS voter-defined category, which underestimates the true share of the electorate that is black - but it is a constant here, making it an apples-to-apples comparison.

Mathematically: if 45% of total EV is in now (i.e. we're looking at a final EV electorate of 1.85m votes), then the remaining EV would have to be just 24% black just to fall to '22 GE EV levels (which was 29.2% black as of the morning of 11/8/2022).

What's In as of Tuesday: 830k (45% of EV): 35.2% black
Hypothetical Remaining: 1010k (55% of EV): 24.3% black
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Combined Runoff Total: 1840k (100% of EV): 29.2% black

To put this into perspective: I don't have concrete data for every election, but I'm pretty sure even Election Day vote hasn't dropped much below 23-24% black in any major GA statewide election in the past decade.

Unless we see 2 or 3 400k+ days between Wednesday and Friday, I'm not sure how the total EV drops below 30% black.

[Agafin]

One worrisome sign for dems is that the electorate is becoming older, the opposite of what normally happens. It really seems like there was a post-Thanksgiving rush among the youth last Saturday and it is now receding.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why WARNOCK is gonna win by 2 pts 51/49 not by a landslide it's gonna be close but there are no more Trafalgar polls that show 49/45 Walker it's tied and when a race is tied it's close enough to go to Ds due to Provisions ballots we saw that in all the close races again except for WI and Barnes had that Kenosha thing and BLM, but WI is heavily R gerrymandering the Crts ensured that

[pantsaregood]

This obviously isn't worth worrying about at this point. Warnock is clearly going to win. Why?

Simple.

its a 303 map not a 242 map

[Person Man]

I’ll go so far as to say that if Walker somehow pulls through and if the Dems don’t have a clear NPV advantage going into 2024, I would tell the campaign to not try on Georgia.

If Warnock does at least meet expectations (gets north of 51.5%), I’m hoping that means that Democrats get the message that they probably need Georgia to win going forward.

[Spectator]

Yeah I’m not exactly seeing many good signs for Walker right now. His pathway was largely dependent on Democratic complacency.

I actually disagree with this — his pathway is just as dependent on persuasion as it is on Republican turnout, and it was never really dependent on a drop-off in Democratic turnout (which was never realistic in the first place). Re: the first point — there’s a reason the Walker people have been hitching their wagons to Kemp, and it’s not because of turnout. While only a fraction of those non-Walker/Kemp voters may be persuadable in the runoff election, they’re numerous enough to make a difference in what is still a 50/50 state.

I never bought Democrats becoming "complacent" in this race, nor was there ever any reason to believe that would be the case. Not only is it hard to overstate how reliant their coalition in GA has become, but it’s also never really been the case that Democratic and minority turnout is particularly low in the South, even in runoff elections.

Walker should be more worried about GOP turnout (again) lagging behind Democratic turnout than about Democratic turnout being particularly high.

Walker did very poorly with swing voters in the first round, and without Senate control on the line the case for him has not gotten any stronger with that group,

Honestly, who’s going to vote for Walker who didn’t already do so in the first round? If he wants to win he’s going to need to find new voters to close the gap.

If Walker is purportedly working on “persuasion” I sure as hell haven’t seen anything indicating that aside from the “Biden 96% vote” that we’ve already seen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's difficult for Walker to get his base out because the Ds already have the majority he won't be the 51 st vote having Ds breaking the tie

[prag_prog]

For everyone's reference, here is the demographics of 2022 Electorate in Georgia. Quite encouraging that Warnock won by 1% in an electorate which was only 26% Black,  which is much lower than 2016, 2018, 2020.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1597947327763079168

[Rookie Yinzer]

One worrisome sign for dems is that the electorate is becoming older, the opposite of what normally happens. It really seems like there was a post-Thanksgiving rush among the youth last Saturday and it is now receding.

Well Warnock won’t win without 40+ year old Democrats, Black voters, non-Black POC voting either….

[roxas11]

Warnock clearly has a lot of crossover appeal and that is a big reason why I'm not as concerned that the 2022 Electorate is less diverse.

The fact is Warnock outperformed most of the other Dems on the ballot including Stacy Abrams. There is no way he could have done that without getting support from independent voters and some republicans

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

For everyone's reference, here is the demographics of 2022 Electorate in Georgia. Quite encouraging that Warnock won by 1% in an electorate which was only 26% Black,  which is much lower than 2016, 2018, 2020.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1597947327763079168

The reason why the "black" vote share has tended to go down in Georgia over he past decade or so is, as Adam Griffen alluded to a few posts back, the fact that many of the newer voter registrations don't have race data. So (particularly if he "White" share is also down) what it means when the Black share is down is that there are more newer registrations voting which don't have race data. By the way, those same people are also disproportionately younger and more concentrated in the Atlanta metro.

So a lower "Black" share is not necessarily always bad for Ds and good for Rs.

[prag_prog]

For everyone's reference, here is the demographics of 2022 Electorate in Georgia. Quite encouraging that Warnock won by 1% in an electorate which was only 26% Black,  which is much lower than 2016, 2018, 2020.

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1597947327763079168

The reason why the "black" vote share has tended to go down in Georgia over he past decade or so is, as Adam Griffen alluded to a few posts back, the fact that many of the newer voter registrations don't have race data. So (particularly if he "White" share is also down) what it means when the Black share is down is that there are more newer registrations voting which don't have race data. By the way, those same people are also disproportionately younger and more concentrated in the Atlanta metro.

So a lower "Black" share is not necessarily always bad for Ds and good for Rs.

good point..didn't consider that

[Adam Griffin]

12:30 PM, Monday: 124,007
12:00 PM, Tuesday: 118,130
12:00 PM, Wednesday: 101,657

[Horus]

DeKalb filled to the brim with canvassers today. Warnock's base is highly activated. 53% may not be out of the question.