GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Tekken_Guy]

I wouldn't be shocked to see Warnock clear a 5 point margin of victory in the runoff.

[wbrocks67]

Those 18-29 #s wow.

[Brittain33]

Those 18-29 #s wow.

College kids before they head back after Thanksgiving break?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Those 18-29 #s wow.

College kids before they head back after Thanksgiving break?

Yes, and likely one of the reasons Republicans really didn't want voting yesterday.

[Suburbia]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Why should Warnock retire in 2028 when he's not even 60 years old? Unless he gets promoted to president or vice president.

He doesn't want to do this forever.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Those 18-29 #s wow.

College kids before they head back after Thanksgiving break?

Something like that would probably be it.

[Adam Griffin]

Apparently there was an early morning update including some of yesterday's data (around 9,000 extra people).

So far in the 2022 runoff election, 90,293 people have voted.

46.3% Black
38.6% White
11.1% Other
2.4% Asian
1.6% Latino

56.5% Female
43.0% Male

13.3% 18-29
6.1%   30-39
10.6% 40-49
34.6% 50-64
35.2% 65+

6.5% of 2022 runoff early voters did not vote in the 2022 general election

[Hindsight was 2020]

Are those good turnout # though? I’m just so used now to these record breaking turnout rates that I don’t know if under 100k is great or not lol

[Spectator]

Voting in person tomorrow after work which is the earliest my county allows. I keep on getting these fliers from Herschel to tell me to vote, so if that’s what he wants. Don’t think he’ll like who I vote for though.

[Bidenworth2020]

Is anyone else surprised by the utter lack of media interest in this race? I know that control of the Senate isn't in question anymore but I would think that any race involving Herschel Walker would attract more attention...

[MATTROSE94]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Probably more like 53-47 in favor of Raphael Warnock if I had to guess. This will be the last runoff he faces, as he will be a lifer in the Senate if he decided not to go for President or Governor. Jon Ossoff will likely be a lifer as well as long as Brian Kemp doesn’t run against him in 2026.

[Xing]

Is anyone else surprised by the utter lack of media interest in this race? I know that control of the Senate isn't in question anymore but I would think that any race involving Herschel Walker would attract more attention...

There was hardly any attention paid to Louisiana in 2014 (after the jungle primary), since control of the Senate had already been determined, though I guess that was also due to the perception that Landrieu was DOA. Maybe very few people think Walker has a chance.

[LabourJersey]

Is anyone else surprised by the utter lack of media interest in this race? I know that control of the Senate isn't in question anymore but I would think that any race involving Herschel Walker would attract more attention...

It is surprising. I think the fact that it won't decide control of the Senate, plus the fact that Trump's announcement basically started the 2024 cycle, has hurt the chance of GA breaking through in terms of coverage.

I also feel there may be some Herschel Walker fatigue among political journalists/media, at this point.

[Skill and Chance]

This is looking really good for Warnock so far. 

[wbrocks67]

Pretty crazy that 6.5% of voters so far did not vote in the GE this year.

[ji_scott]

Pretty crazy that 6.5% of voters so far did not vote in the GE this year.

And 63% of them are age 18 - 29.  Good news for Warnock.

[pppolitics]

Pretty crazy that 6.5% of voters so far did not vote in the GE this year.

According to on-the-ground reporting, a lot of them are college students who didn't receive their absentee ballot in time for the general election but are home for thanksgiving and taking advantage of Saturday voting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I will be so glad when Ds finally clinch this race for a 51/49 Senate so we don't have any R obstruction on judges

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1596964214890909696

[Suburbia]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Probably more like 53-47 in favor of Raphael Warnock if I had to guess. This will be the last runoff he faces, as he will be a lifer in the Senate if he decided not to go for President or Governor. Jon Ossoff will likely be a lifer as well as long as Brian Kemp doesn’t run against him in 2026.

Probably. He probably does not want to be a lifer because he probably doesn't believe in politics and religion mixing....he did say "No one can serve two masters: Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money".

I see him getting voting rights legislation done and he retires in 2028---I don't think he was meant to be there that long.

Ossoff could be a lifer if he wants.

If Georgia's two senators are Democratic for a long time, then Georgia is ripe for a Democratic governor in 2026.

Stacey Abrams let the fame get into her head.

[prag_prog]

seriously though..why haven't there been any polls so far for this race except that AARP poll ?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Probably more like 53-47 in favor of Raphael Warnock if I had to guess. This will be the last runoff he faces, as he will be a lifer in the Senate if he decided not to go for President or Governor. Jon Ossoff will likely be a lifer as well as long as Brian Kemp doesn’t run against him in 2026.

Probably. He probably does not want to be a lifer because he probably doesn't believe in politics and religion mixing....he did say "No one can serve two masters: Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money".

I see him getting voting rights legislation done and he retires in 2028---I don't think he was meant to be there that long.

Ossoff could be a lifer if he wants.

If Georgia's two senators are Democratic for a long time, then Georgia is ripe for a Democratic governor in 2026.

Stacey Abrams let the fame get into her head.

I wonder if hypothetically, Warnock wins by a somewhat lopsided margin, if the GOP basically triages the state going forwards. The writing is sort of on the wall because Georgia is such a polarized southern state, it's basically impossible for the GOP to overcome unfavorable demographic change after a certain point without favorable rebranding.

In places like AZ, at least things are a lot less racially polarized and outreach to win back "McCain Republicans" or make inroads with more socially conservative Hispanics could keep the state in their hands if they can get their act together.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Probably more like 53-47 in favor of Raphael Warnock if I had to guess. This will be the last runoff he faces, as he will be a lifer in the Senate if he decided not to go for President or Governor. Jon Ossoff will likely be a lifer as well as long as Brian Kemp doesn’t run against him in 2026.

Probably. He probably does not want to be a lifer because he probably doesn't believe in politics and religion mixing....he did say "No one can serve two masters: Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money".

I see him getting voting rights legislation done and he retires in 2028---I don't think he was meant to be there that long.

Ossoff could be a lifer if he wants.

If Georgia's two senators are Democratic for a long time, then Georgia is ripe for a Democratic governor in 2026.

Stacey Abrams let the fame get into her head.

I wonder if hypothetically, Warnock wins by a somewhat lopsided margin, if the GOP basically triages the state going forwards. The writing is sort of on the wall because Georgia is such a polarized southern state, it's basically impossible for the GOP to overcome unfavorable demographic change after a certain point without favorable rebranding.

In places like AZ, at least things are a lot less racially polarized and outreach to win back "McCain Republicans" or make inroads with more socially conservative Hispanics could keep the state in their hands if they can get their act together.

Triage the state?  Seriously?  They only lost the Senate seats in 2020/21 due to lackluster incumbents and Trump's election lies driving down turnout in the runoffs.  If Warnock wins this year, it will be because the GOP ran a truly terrible candidate.  Even if that happens and the Democrats still control both Senate seats, the GOP will still hold every row office, solid majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and 9 of the 14 House seats. 

[Spectator]

Yeah, GOP isn’t about to triage a state where every other Republican running statewide won by 5% or more, LOL. The writing may be on the wall by the end of the decade, but it could still go red in 2024 (without Trump) or 2026 for Senate. It isn’t like Ossoff is an unbeatable juggernaut.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Herschel seems like a nice man and a good athlete, but he ain't cut out for the job.

If Republicans were looking at the athlete route, they should have looked at Tom Glavine or some other Georgian great.

My final prediction: Warnock 51, Walker 49

Warnock retires from politics in '28. He gets voting rights legislation done in his career.

Probably more like 53-47 in favor of Raphael Warnock if I had to guess. This will be the last runoff he faces, as he will be a lifer in the Senate if he decided not to go for President or Governor. Jon Ossoff will likely be a lifer as well as long as Brian Kemp doesn’t run against him in 2026.

Probably. He probably does not want to be a lifer because he probably doesn't believe in politics and religion mixing....he did say "No one can serve two masters: Either he will hate the one and love the other, or he will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money".

I see him getting voting rights legislation done and he retires in 2028---I don't think he was meant to be there that long.

Ossoff could be a lifer if he wants.

If Georgia's two senators are Democratic for a long time, then Georgia is ripe for a Democratic governor in 2026.

Stacey Abrams let the fame get into her head.

I wonder if hypothetically, Warnock wins by a somewhat lopsided margin, if the GOP basically triages the state going forwards. The writing is sort of on the wall because Georgia is such a polarized southern state, it's basically impossible for the GOP to overcome unfavorable demographic change after a certain point without favorable rebranding.

In places like AZ, at least things are a lot less racially polarized and outreach to win back "McCain Republicans" or make inroads with more socially conservative Hispanics could keep the state in their hands if they can get their act together.

Triage the state?  Seriously?  They only lost the Senate seats in 2020/21 due to lackluster incumbents and Trump's election lies driving down turnout in the runoffs.  If Warnock wins this year, it will be because the GOP ran a truly terrible candidate.  Even if that happens and the Democrats still control both Senate seats, the GOP will still hold every row office, solid majorities in both houses of the state legislature, and 9 of the 14 House seats. 

True but the latter is due to gerrymandering.

It just seems like GA’s transition is powered by fundamental demographic change that the gop can’t do much about, especially in such a polarized region of the country. The midwestern states on the other hand have largely shifted thanks to coalition changes; demographically they’re pretty simillar to where they were 10 or 20 years ago