GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Adam Griffin]

In Gwinnett, there's only 1 out of 11 EV sites with less than a 30-minute wait. That site is in the heart of Latino Gwinnett. The places were wait times are highest are in Lawrenceville and Dacula (combined, partisanship comparable to the county as a whole).

In Fulton, 75% of sites (20/27) have wait times greater than 30 minutes. Wait times are higher in the whiter and wealthier areas.

In Cobb, 2 out of 12 = greater than 30-minute waits. Not a strong correlation based on partisanship, race or income.

In Richmond, all 4 sites currently have roughly 15-minute waits.

[Person Man]

As of now, close to two-thirds of early voters (322k) voted in the 2022 primaries.

Among those, the split is 58.1% D, 41.3% R.

How does that compare to 2021?

[Adam Griffin]

As of now, close to two-thirds of early voters (322k) voted in the 2022 primaries.

Among those, the split is 58.1% D, 41.3% R.

How does that compare to 2021?

The final EV in 2021 was Warnock +14 (Warnock won in-person EV by 2; ABM by 36). No idea what primary voting history looked like then.

[MT Treasurer]

Might be worthwhile considering how the GOP's runoff strategy differs from their general election playbook. I’m obviously not on the ground, so the GA posters can confirm/rebut this, but from my (very limited) outsider perspective, it seems like it’s (a) anticipating Warnock's highly 'theatrical' campaign style and projecting an image of him as a trained and untrustworthy actor in every respect, incl. his self-proclaimed independence (their first ad that began airing a few days after the November election introduced this theme, see ad 1 below), (b) a lot more focused on the character assassination/personal history of the incumbent, which reinforces the first theme — see ad 2 below as an example, (c) taking over Kemp's much-vaunted "turnout operation" (which can only get you so far but is of particular help in a lower-turnout runoff in which your party is reliant on the lower-propensity voters) in addition to (d) public appearances/ads with Kemp. I’m sure I missed something (outreach to Hispanic and Asian voters seems to be a bigger priority this time as well, as are reminders to Republican-leaning voters to vote early), but this seems to be it, mostly. It’s not bad on paper, but their biggest problem remains the fact that they’re being vastly outspent.

Ad 1-

https://twitter.com/nrsc/status/1590792729847816193

Ad 2-

https://twitter.com/HerschelWalker/status/1597221848592547840

[GeorgiaModerate]

Forsyth County wait times are shown here.  Currently <30 minutes at all four EV sites.

[Adam Griffin]

The Walker campaign's ad is far better: no idea why, but NRSC/NRCC/DSCC/DCCC all seem incapable of making anything but the cheesiest of ads (many of which never even air on TV). I can only assume they do so to signal to outside groups what narratives to drive based on polling without officially coordinating, because they (including the first ad) are almost never persuasive on their own.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1597666823688065024

[prag_prog]

considering this is Warnock's 4th election just in span of 2 years and the crazy amount spent on ads supporting Warnock and against Warnock, I feel like nothing much is gonna move the needle in next few days with regards to his favorables. It is pretty much a turnout game now for the runoff

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1597567950562672640

makes sense, this is definitely the biggest gap between the two. Warnock is a respectable pastor from MLK's old church, Walker is, well, Walker.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1597673755748503552

[Person Man]

As of now, close to two-thirds of early voters (322k) voted in the 2022 primaries.

Among those, the split is 58.1% D, 41.3% R.

How does that compare to 2021?

The final EV in 2021 was Warnock +14 (Warnock won in-person EV by 2; ABM by 36). No idea what primary voting history looked like then.

Well a lot of kids and pocs that didn’t show up then are coming out, so that has to bode well.

[Adam Griffin]

3:30 PM, Monday: 207,643 voters (27,685/hr*)
3:00 PM, Tuesday: 199,587 voters (28,512/hr*)

* Assumes all voting statewide begins at 8 am

In-person turnout today could very well be higher than yesterday, or at least come very close to matching it. Given the 20k mail ballot build-up over the long weekend that was processed on Monday, however, today's overall total (AIP+ABM) may not exceed Monday's 323k regardless.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the Approvals are showing the same numbers as before but Ds are still doing well in NC, FL and GA so much for Approval ratings, I expect Warnock to win

That's why I say it's too early to call KY and Sen for 24 I know Rs are so anxious to get rid of Brown, Manchin and Tester and takeover the Sen since Ryan and Beasley failed they have to wait just like Ds have to wait to take over the H and we are favs in the H based on NY alone

It's nice to have 2 yrs of non obstruction from McConnells on judges since we already have 50

[Adam Griffin]

All the Approvals are showing the same numbers as before but Ds are still doing well in NC, FL and GA so much for Approval ratings, I expect Warnock to win

That's why I say it's too early to call KY and Sen for 24 I know Rs are so anxious to get rid of Brown, Manchin and Tester and takeover the Sen since Ryan and Beasley failed they have to wait just like Ds have to wait to take over the H and we are favs in the H based on NY alone

It's nice to have 2 yrs of non obstruction from McConnells on judges since we already have 50

Sir this is a Georgia Waffle House

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1597690607077822465

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1597690607077822465

Is this good news for the Rev?

[pantsaregood]

All the Approvals are showing the same numbers as before but Ds are still doing well in NC, FL and GA so much for Approval ratings, I expect Warnock to win

That's why I say it's too early to call KY and Sen for 24 I know Rs are so anxious to get rid of Brown, Manchin and Tester and takeover the Sen since Ryan and Beasley failed they have to wait just like Ds have to wait to take over the H and we are favs in the H based on NY alone

It's nice to have 2 yrs of non obstruction from McConnells on judges since we already have 50

Sir this is a Georgia Waffle House

sir this is a 303 map not a 242 map

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1597690607077822465

Is this good news for the Rev?

I'd more look at the 2022 non-voters numbers posted than anything else to get a sense of what's going on.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's another early voting wait times map, this one for DeKalb County: https://dekalbgis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/4c790bbc7bca4d748a71d69429904d6c

Others that have been posted (collecting these together for convenience):

Cobb - https://cobbcountyga.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=1c3b458b93b3436db03c77cf585b23d2

Forsyth - https://forsythcoga.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/ad6d0c718a944601ad8a246452f54cc9

Fulton - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/1a86b03b27fa48188bf3699c4eccfb20

Gwinnett - https://www.gwinnettcounty.com/web/gwinnett/Alert

Richmond - http://appweb2.augustaga.gov/awaittimesjs/AdvanceVotingWaitTimes.html

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1597622621017092096

[Adam Griffin]

Monday, 4:45 PM: 239,160 (27,332/hr*)
Tuesday, 5:00 PM: 264,168 (29,352/hr*)

* Assumes all voting statewide begins at 8 am

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1597726453084278784

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597763079819112449
https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1597764878986792960

[ProgressiveModerate]

I haven't been super active about this but a few notes:

Anyway you slice it, the current EV numbers are objectively good for Warnock? How good is up to debate, but turnout seems is highest in metro Atlanta, black turnout is way up, and young people are showing solid numbers. Consider that in the 2022 midterm, it seems like GA had an R-leaning electorate, especially with the margin Kemp and other generic Rs were re-elected by.

The question is if Walker can make up that deficit with the remaining days and ofc E-Day. Right now, I'm leaning pretty strongly towards no, but you can't completely count him out given how strange elections can be.

It really seems like in the Atlanta metro, Dems have built up a pretty energized, enthusiastic, and reliable GOTV machine which has been doing wonders since 2020. It's moreso downstate that I'm a bit more worried about; black turnout in southern GA was clearly down from previous cycles in November, leading to some pretty hard right shifts in much of the "black-belt". This was a theme we saw throughout other key southern states like VA and NC.

I also feel like looking at the campaigns, Warnock seems to be running on a pretty "upbeat" and happy message, not about being a moderate hero, but about general unity and optimism for the future. Warnocks campaign has done a really effective job at painting him as positive and non-ideological figure.

Walker seems to be running a bit more of the negative campaign, likely because right now he's the one facing all these scandals. His campaign is trying to revive some of the same old attacks from the 2021 runoffs to try and make Warnock the one with the baggage, but it seems like too little too late.

Also, just looking at their social media, Warnock's is far superior. There's a clear theme, you have a lot of videos of regular people/organizers explaining why they're voting Warnock and whatever, and videos of Warnock just out and about and giving speeches. Walkers seems a bit all over the place. His twitter pfp rn is literally a shirtless photo of him with boxing gloves which is telling considering he's running for Senator; I wouldn't be surprised if his logic is that big muscles will help him do better with women or smtg.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1597767177402486784

Republicans should be deeply embarrassed to vote for this man