OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Lief 🗽]

Brutal new ad from Ryan.
https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1567512655962701824?s=21&t=B1pj5hhQ-yteVZ...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Brutal new ad from Ryan.
https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1567512655962701824?s=21&t=B1pj5hhQ-yteVZ...

We do have people for 2024 after all if Biden doesn't run! He's solid

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

[riceowl]

Good ad. Are there debates scheduled?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.

It's not, but after seeing the result in that state two years ago, when it had seemed like Biden could win there, I'm not that optimistic. Trump is supposed to hold a rally for Vance soon, and he's trying to ride his coattails to coast to victory.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

I think if things are still the way they are right now come mid-October, then Ryan might actually pull off the upset

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

I actually think if things are still the way they are right now come mid-October, then Ryan probably pulls off the upset

Who is to say that they will stay the same? And who is to say that the polls in Ohio are actually accurate this time? Notably, the one outlier poll - Trafalgar - has Vance leading by 5%. I'm aware of the poor reputation Trafalgar has on here, but the Midwest is one region where they have been quite accurate.

[BG-NY]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.

It's not, but after seeing the result in that state two years ago, when it had seemed like Biden could win there, I'm not that optimistic. Trump is supposed to hold a rally for Vance soon, and he's trying to ride his coattails to coast to victory.

I’m curious because you seem to be one of the few genuine swing voters on here. It sounds like you are cheering for Ryan and planning to vote democrat in your home state. Are these both race specific preferences, or do you prefer democrats to hold both houses this year?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.

It's not, but after seeing the result in that state two years ago, when it had seemed like Biden could win there, I'm not that optimistic. Trump is supposed to hold a rally for Vance soon, and he's trying to ride his coattails to coast to victory.

I’m curious because you seem to be one of the few genuine swing voters on here. It sounds like you are cheering for Ryan and planning to vote democrat in your home state. Are these both race specific preferences, or do you prefer democrats to hold both houses this year?

Well, I plan on voting to reelect Bennet and Polis, and probably all of the other Democratic statewide officers at this point. I strongly approve of Polis's performance as Governor (except for the very expansive abortion bill he signed a few months ago), and I think Bennet is a decent Senator. As for the others, I don't see any real reason for throwing them out of office. However, I will be voting Republican for local and county offices where I live.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

lolz

[MarkD]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.

It's not, but after seeing the result in that state two years ago, when it had seemed like Biden could win there, I'm not that optimistic. Trump is supposed to hold a rally for Vance soon, and he's trying to ride his coattails to coast to victory.

Don't just compare this year to 2020; how about comparing this year to 2018? Compare this Senate election to Sherrod Brown's reelection four years ago. This year, we've got the Dobbs ruling, which is quite unpopular, and is going to be a huge motivating factor for pro-choice voters - in both parties - who, for decades, relaxed their political muscles and did not bother to try to vote for pro-choice politicians because they felt they could rely on the sanctity of the Roe precedent. I think anger over the abortion issue is going to mitigate the phenomenon of this year being a Biden mid-term. I'm not saying that Tim Ryan is going to do as well as Brown did four years ago; a Ryan win will be narrower than Brown's by probably about half the margin. Probably about a half dozen counties that went for Brown in 2018 will flip to Vance. But even if Ryan wins only ten counties, if those ten are mostly the biggest counties (Athens, Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Lucas, Mahoning, Montgomery, Portage, Summit, and Trumbull), then that could put Ryan over the top.

I'm not rooting for Tim Ryan to win - I think I'd be most likely to vote for one of the independents if I lived in Ohio - but I do think he is likely going to win, due to Vance's inept campaign, and that Ohio is not the rock-ribbed Republican state you think it is. If Brown could win by nearly 7 points four years ago, I can see Ryan winning this year by 3 or 4 points.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/timryan/status/1568585673929621506?s=46&t=fbkdTuJDJKl_Vb...

Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.

It's not, but after seeing the result in that state two years ago, when it had seemed like Biden could win there, I'm not that optimistic. Trump is supposed to hold a rally for Vance soon, and he's trying to ride his coattails to coast to victory.

Don't just compare this year to 2020; how about comparing this year to 2018? Compare this Senate election to Sherrod Brown's reelection four years ago. This year, we've got the Dobbs ruling, which is quite unpopular, and is going to be a huge motivating factor for pro-choice voters - in both parties - who, for decades, relaxed their political muscles and did not bother to try to vote for pro-choice politicians because they felt they could rely on the sanctity of the Roe precedent. I think anger over the abortion issue is going to mitigate the phenomenon of this year being a Biden mid-term. I'm not saying that Tim Ryan is going to do as well as Brown did four years ago; a Ryan win will be narrower than Brown's by probably about half the margin. Probably about a half dozen counties that went for Brown in 2018 will flip to Vance. But even if Ryan wins only ten counties, if those ten are mostly the biggest counties (Athens, Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Lucas, Mahoning, Montgomery, Portage, Summit, and Trumbull), then that could put Ryan over the top.

I'm not rooting for Tim Ryan to win - I think I'd be most likely to vote for one of the independents if I lived in Ohio - but I do think he is likely going to win, due to Vance's inept campaign, and that Ohio is not the rock-ribbed Republican state you think it is. If Brown could win by nearly 7 points four years ago, I can see Ryan winning this year by 3 or 4 points.

The main difference between this and OH Sen in 2018 is in 2018, Republicans never really took OH-Sen seriously, like at all and the race was never nationalized. Brown was just seen as an inoffensive down to earth incumbent and was really able to get by that way. Even though yes, Vance is running a poor campaign, enough money has been spent to effectively nationalize the race where Ryan isn't a "default choice". Brown was able to get 40+ point overperformances in many rural areas, particularly in the eastern part of the state, that will just be impossible for Ryan to achieve because of polarization ad nationalization.

[wesmoorenerd]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

[bagelman]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Brown won by less then Trump against a candidate described as "Edward FitzGerald with a driver's license." FitzGerald had lost by 30 in the 2014 gubernatorial race, even while winning a rural Trump +54 county over local issues.

I've been disillusioned by 2020 results, almost outright swinging rightward. It's conceivable that Ryan could greatly overpreform, winning Delaware County and taking back some ground up here in the northeast. But he won his district, gerrymandered as a Democratic sink, by less then Trump's margin statewide.

Even with momentum on his side, are the votes there anymore? A Vance+1.5 result is ultimately the same as a Vance +10 result in regards to the winner, at least the former wouldn't be yet another gut punch.

It is very true that Ryan is much less appealing than Brown as well. I don't like him for one. There are plenty of voters that aren't scared off by Trumpism and it's anti-Democratic attitudes, not to mention continued disregard of the environment, who voted Brown and would do so again but would prefer the phony populism of Vance over the weird meditation of Ryan. 

[Calthrina950]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Brown won by less then Trump against a candidate described as "Edward FitzGerald with a driver's license." FitzGerald had lost by 30 in the 2014 gubernatorial race, even while winning a rural Trump +54 county over local issues.

I've been disillusioned by 2020 results, almost outright swinging rightward. It's conceivable that Ryan could greatly overpreform, winning Delaware County and taking back some ground up here in the northeast. But he won his district, gerrymandered as a Democratic sink, by less then Trump's margin statewide.

Even with momentum on his side, are the votes there anymore? A Vance+1.5 result is ultimately the same as a Vance +10 result in regards to the winner, at least the former wouldn't be yet another gut punch.

It is very true that Ryan is much less appealing than Brown as well. I don't like him for one. There are plenty of voters that aren't scared off by Trumpism and it's anti-Democratic attitudes, not to mention continued disregard of the environment, who voted Brown and would do so again but would prefer the phony populism of Vance over the weird meditation of Ryan.

I read an interesting article (I believe it was in the conservative Washington Examiner) in which several Ohio voters, living in Ryan's district, were interviewed about the race between him and Vance. These voters identified themselves as former Democrats, having voted for Obama and for Ryan himself in the past. However, they are now thoroughly unsatisfied with the Democratic Party and believe that it has abandoned them, and they are enthusiastic converts to Trump. They believe Ryan is out of touch with them and their values, and plan on supporting Vance.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Brown won by less then Trump against a candidate described as "Edward FitzGerald with a driver's license." FitzGerald had lost by 30 in the 2014 gubernatorial race, even while winning a rural Trump +54 county over local issues.

I've been disillusioned by 2020 results, almost outright swinging rightward. It's conceivable that Ryan could greatly overpreform, winning Delaware County and taking back some ground up here in the northeast. But he won his district, gerrymandered as a Democratic sink, by less then Trump's margin statewide.

Even with momentum on his side, are the votes there anymore? A Vance+1.5 result is ultimately the same as a Vance +10 result in regards to the winner, at least the former wouldn't be yet another gut punch.

It is very true that Ryan is much less appealing than Brown as well. I don't like him for one. There are plenty of voters that aren't scared off by Trumpism and it's anti-Democratic attitudes, not to mention continued disregard of the environment, who voted Brown and would do so again but would prefer the phony populism of Vance over the weird meditation of Ryan.

I read an interesting article (I believe it was in the conservative Washington Examiner) in which several Ohio voters, living in Ryan's district, were interviewed about the race between him and Vance. These voters identified themselves as former Democrats, having voted for Obama and for Ryan himself in the past. However, they are now thoroughly unsatisfied with the Democratic Party and believe that it has abandoned them, and they are enthusiastic converts to Trump. They believe Ryan is out of touch with them and their values, and plan on supporting Vance.

The Washington Examiner is (barely) one step above the New York Post, so I wouldn’t read anything into that.  Knowing them, they probably kept looking until they found a few people who told them what they wanted to put in the story.

[Calthrina950]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Brown won by less then Trump against a candidate described as "Edward FitzGerald with a driver's license." FitzGerald had lost by 30 in the 2014 gubernatorial race, even while winning a rural Trump +54 county over local issues.

I've been disillusioned by 2020 results, almost outright swinging rightward. It's conceivable that Ryan could greatly overpreform, winning Delaware County and taking back some ground up here in the northeast. But he won his district, gerrymandered as a Democratic sink, by less then Trump's margin statewide.

Even with momentum on his side, are the votes there anymore? A Vance+1.5 result is ultimately the same as a Vance +10 result in regards to the winner, at least the former wouldn't be yet another gut punch.

It is very true that Ryan is much less appealing than Brown as well. I don't like him for one. There are plenty of voters that aren't scared off by Trumpism and it's anti-Democratic attitudes, not to mention continued disregard of the environment, who voted Brown and would do so again but would prefer the phony populism of Vance over the weird meditation of Ryan.

I read an interesting article (I believe it was in the conservative Washington Examiner) in which several Ohio voters, living in Ryan's district, were interviewed about the race between him and Vance. These voters identified themselves as former Democrats, having voted for Obama and for Ryan himself in the past. However, they are now thoroughly unsatisfied with the Democratic Party and believe that it has abandoned them, and they are enthusiastic converts to Trump. They believe Ryan is out of touch with them and their values, and plan on supporting Vance.

The Washington Examiner is (barely) one step above the New York Post, so I wouldn’t read anything into that.  Knowing them, they probably kept looking until they found a few people who told them what they wanted to put in the story.

I figured that there wouldn't be a positive reception of the source, but I still found it notable. And if you want to look at hard electoral data, it is undeniable that Ryan's congressional district, which was originally designed as a Democratic vote-sink, has swung heavily to the right over the past decade. Ryan won reelection 73-27% in 2012, but in 2020, he was reelected 53-45%, barely outrunning Biden, who won the district 51-48% over Trump. A similar overperformance of Biden, who lost Ohio 53-45% in 2020, would have Ryan still losing to Vance by 2-3%. It may be better, however, to compare Ryan to Strickland in 2016 (who lost to Portman 58-37%), and that is why I think it more likely that his margin of defeat will be closer to Biden's.

[Orwell]

We need someone to pay JD Vance to take photos in a Michigan hat. Like $200k to take a photo in a michigan hat and then just send the photo across the state on social media. He’d lose a non neglible amount of voters for that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Strickland lost by 20 because he said Scalias death was good for America and he was 76 yrs old you can't compare Strickland to Ryan candidate, do users know why Brown has been reelected over and over it's no accident he is the most liberal member of the Sen it's because Brown was elected during the time of Dennis KUCINICH and Jim Traficant, Ryan is the same age is Brown and he is Pragmatism not Liberal Vance has trailed in every poll except Emerson and TRAFALGAR

I am not sure if we are gonna win it's a 303 map anyways but there are gonna be upsets 2008 OR Gordon Smith wasnt supposed to lose he was upset by Merkley


If Ryan wins it's an upset just like Collins upset Gideon and Rs have been upset before OR 2008

Brown was elected when DeWine in 2018 after Trump won OHIO

[Joe Republic]

Somebody should probably follow up with Jay Dee and see if he still feels this way:


https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1495091506952159233

[Unelectable Bystander]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Brown won by less then Trump against a candidate described as "Edward FitzGerald with a driver's license." FitzGerald had lost by 30 in the 2014 gubernatorial race, even while winning a rural Trump +54 county over local issues.

I've been disillusioned by 2020 results, almost outright swinging rightward. It's conceivable that Ryan could greatly overpreform, winning Delaware County and taking back some ground up here in the northeast. But he won his district, gerrymandered as a Democratic sink, by less then Trump's margin statewide.

Even with momentum on his side, are the votes there anymore? A Vance+1.5 result is ultimately the same as a Vance +10 result in regards to the winner, at least the former wouldn't be yet another gut punch.

It is very true that Ryan is much less appealing than Brown as well. I don't like him for one. There are plenty of voters that aren't scared off by Trumpism and it's anti-Democratic attitudes, not to mention continued disregard of the environment, who voted Brown and would do so again but would prefer the phony populism of Vance over the weird meditation of Ryan.

I read an interesting article (I believe it was in the conservative Washington Examiner) in which several Ohio voters, living in Ryan's district, were interviewed about the race between him and Vance. These voters identified themselves as former Democrats, having voted for Obama and for Ryan himself in the past. However, they are now thoroughly unsatisfied with the Democratic Party and believe that it has abandoned them, and they are enthusiastic converts to Trump. They believe Ryan is out of touch with them and their values, and plan on supporting Vance.

The Washington Examiner is (barely) one step above the New York Post, so I wouldn’t read anything into that.  Knowing them, they probably kept looking until they found a few people who told them what they wanted to put in the story.

I figured that there wouldn't be a positive reception of the source, but I still found it notable. And if you want to look at hard electoral data, it is undeniable that Ryan's congressional district, which was originally designed as a Democratic vote-sink, has swung heavily to the right over the past decade. Ryan won reelection 73-27% in 2012, but in 2020, he was reelected 53-45%, barely outrunning Biden, who won the district 51-48% over Trump. A similar overperformance of Biden, who lost Ohio 53-45% in 2020, would have Ryan still losing to Vance by 2-3%. It may be better, however, to compare Ryan to Strickland in 2016 (who lost to Portman 58-37%), and that is why I think it more likely that his margin of defeat will be closer to Biden's.

I’m old enough to remember when democrats were so excited that Dolan was coming back to win the primary over Vance and closing in on him by the day, only to lose to both him and Mandel. Polls found too many democrats even in a republican primary! The places where Vance ran up the score? Mahoning, Trumbull, Lorain, even the Akron area.

I’m also old enough to remember when a poster was laughed off the stage for correctly predicting that Trump would carry Lorain.

Tim Ryan’s area and the surroundings are leaving for good

[BG-NY]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Ryan is not running in a D+7 national environment, is not an incumbent, is running against 4 more years of pro-republican demographic trends in Ohio, and is facing an actual opponent -- not a fill in for the frontrunner who dropped out weeks before the filing deadline.

I am very high on Dem chances in midterms, Dobbs has been fortuitous without question. But Ohio is not a swing state anymore.