Florida 2022 Megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Dude if the Economy stays slow like it is now DeSANTIS will win, in 500 days Covid will be over and we won't have to wait til 2024 to get Recovery.

It's already over gradually

[AlterEgo]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Who do you think it'll be then? Fried? Demings? Someone else?

I think Demings is the clear Democratic frontrunner if she decides to run for governor. I'll admit I'm a bit torn on what a 1v1 Crist vs Fried primary would look like.

[AlterEgo]

Sir Mohammed can't predict with certainly that Crist will lose he has a 1/3 chance and is very wealthy and  he is only down by six not 20

Even if we were to concede that Crist will be the frontrunner in the Democratic Primary (I don't believe that but will concede it for the sake of this argument), he still would probably have a best case scenario of around 45% chance of winning the nomination. After that, he'd probably have around a best-case 45% shot of beating DeSantis.

This would give Crist somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20% chance of being Florida's next governor.

Dude if the Economy stays slow like it is now DeSANTIS will win, in 500 days Covid will be over and we won't have to wait til 2024 to get Recovery.

It's already over gradually

Not sure what any of that has to do with anything. It certainly has noting with what we were talking about. Just discussing straight math, bro. Stay on topic.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What, the Economy has something to do with Everything, Biden said he expect the Economy to grow and boom next yr, if Covid is Eradicated, the D's chances only improve, beyond, what we have now

Trump got 46% because we had a Trump Recession, that's why he lost

There were three polls in FL 52/42, 48%/48 and 53/47 all of them can be overcome in 500 days, if Rs can target blue states we can target red states

You don't want to talk about the Economy because you don't want to admit that DeSantis will lose


Again DeSantis is not as popular among minority groups as DeWine, that's why Biden isn't inviting DeSantis into WH, bit he has invited DeWine who will WIN

[brucejoel99]

it's_happening.gif

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1392218038578016258

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Crist is dominating the primary, one of them need to take on Rubio and Fried has the best chance to defeat Rubio, because Crist is the best known to FL he was T Gov before

Crist 53/30%


Biden is gonna probably the Fried after she loses the primary the take on Rubio

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Crist is dominating the primary, one of them need to take on Rubio and Fried has the best chance to defeat Rubio, because Crist is the best known to FL he was T Gov before

Crist 53/30%


Biden is gonna probably the Fried after she loses the primary the take on Rubio

Demings probably runs against Rubio and wins her primary easily.

[2016]

Crist is dominating the primary, one of them need to take on Rubio and Fried has the best chance to defeat Rubio, because Crist is the best known to FL he was T Gov before

Crist 53/30%


Biden is gonna probably the Fried after she loses the primary the take on Rubio

Demings probably runs against Rubio and wins her primary easily.

Demings will not run against Rubio with potentially Stephanie Murphy & Aramis Ayala running!

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

Lmao this race isn’t gonna be competitive. Even if Dems spend millions and millions here, it’s a red year, and DeSantis and Rubio are very popular in Florida.

I knew after the 2018 midterms after Scott and DeSantis narrowly won in a D+9 environment (when no one expected them to, never forget all the Gillum+7 and Nelson+7 polls) that FL was going to be lean to likely R in 2020 and redder beyond.


Add in the fact that the FLDP is the most useless state party in the country + every nominee from the Dems so far is a massive joke (Crist and Fried? Really?) or has less name recognition, and that the people who are recently moving into FL (whether it be from Cuba or from other states) are generally not exactly friendly to Democrats?

Likely R but honestly way closer to safe than lean for both Rubio and DeSantis.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

Crist is dominating the primary, one of them need to take on Rubio and Fried has the best chance to defeat Rubio, because Crist is the best known to FL he was T Gov before

Crist 53/30%


Biden is gonna probably the Fried after she loses the primary the take on Rubio

Demings probably runs against Rubio and wins her primary easily.

Demings will not run against Rubio with potentially Stephanie Murphy & Aramis Ayala running!

Demings is probably the least worst candidate the FLDP has. Everyone else named is a literal joke or has no name recognition. Regardless she probably doesn’t get within 7 of either Rubio or Atlas’s favorite governor.

Either way, if I’m the DNC (I’m not a Dem, but imagine if I was a Dem and controlled their funding and trying to make them actually win), I am spending very little money on this state in 2022, 2024, or beyond. They’d be better off spending money in AZ, NV, PA, etc.

[Literally Just a Contrarian]

DeSabtis is gonna do poorly against Crist with Afro Americans, he only reaches out to Latinos

Didn’t DeSantis do fairly well with Afro-Americans in 2018 vs Gillum? I don’t see how he does significantly worse with them vs Charlie Crist.

Either way, Latinos are a way more malleable demographic than AA’s, and a more important demographic in Florida than AA’s.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are still 500 days out from Election day it's still early.

Inparty matches performance of an INCUMBENT Prez and Biden is way ahead of 46% Trump

[Pheurton Skeurto]

The announcement was a teaser for an announcement:

https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1392476334690078720?s=20

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Fried looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Demings looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Crist looks into running: "He's ruining (Whatevers left of) his political career"



Let's just cut the middle-man and say no FL Dem will win next year and its a foolish exercise determining who stands a "better chance". As far as I'm concerned, the best that Dems can hope for here is 47% and/or a 3 point loss.

Though I do think Morgan would be the 'best' candidate in that FL Dems have absolutely nothing to lose if he's nominated. 2018 was his best shot though and I'm really disappointed that he sat it out

[Donerail]

IMHO Val Demings and John Morgan are the two best candidates to take on DeSantis.

Morgan has said he's getting out of the game — I know he thought seriously about it in '18 and earlier (he flew an acquaintance out to interview as his campaign manager), but the most recent thing he's said is that Amendment 2 was his last fight.

But yes, I've never really understood the appeal of Nikki Fried. Her 2018 win was a bit of a fluke — she campaigned on marijuana, which was enough to get her the extra fraction of a percentage point over Nelson & Gillum, but I don't see how that translates to winning statewide office when she's at the top of the ticket. Think it's telling that her ad mentions that she won election but doesn't mention anything she did after that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Image Link

Fried can't win, she's gonna choke hard. She doesn't stand for anything except being opposed to DeSantis, she couldn't even stand for the $15 Minimum wage. If she's the best we got then the Florida Democrats should just hand this race to DeSantis and save their breath for 2024 and 2026. DeSantis will fry Fried.

The announcement was a teaser for an announcement:

https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1392476334690078720?s=20

This ad is cringeworthy and reeks of the #Resistance, reminds me of Biden's ads in September and October where I live. 0 substance. It keeps talking about her record but doesn't tell us anything about it. Does she even have a record?

Nothing but soulless platitudes and appeals to "electability" which were probably bogus in the first place.


IMHO Val Demings and John Morgan are the two best candidates to take on DeSantis.

,

The Election is in 500 days the last polls that were polled were DeSANTIS and Rubio up by six, pts, that's not a landslide

The only person that are safe are Reynolds and DeWine whom are close to , 59 percent Approvals


It's still a VBM Election you can make the ballot at Post Offices not drop boxes, D's need some Red states to keep the H

Kelly is gonna win in red state KS, the reason why we can win FL Afro Americans dominate the state, and Biden in some polls are at 59 percent. Our D states are more safe because Biden is over 50% not 46% if Biden was like Trump, we would be losing MI, WI and PA

Don't criticize me for changing my mind we don't have user Predictions and I will make a dream map too like I always do

[UWS]

Image Link

Fried can't win, she's gonna choke hard. She doesn't stand for anything except being opposed to DeSantis, she couldn't even stand for the $15 Minimum wage. If she's the best we got then the Florida Democrats should just hand this race to DeSantis and save their breath for 2024 and 2026. DeSantis will fry Fried.

The announcement was a teaser for an announcement:

https://twitter.com/nikkifried/status/1392476334690078720?s=20

This ad is cringeworthy and reeks of the #Resistance, reminds me of Biden's ads in September and October where I live. 0 substance. It keeps talking about her record but doesn't tell us anything about it. Does she even have a record?

Nothing but soulless platitudes and appeals to "electability" which were probably bogus in the first place.


IMHO Val Demings and John Morgan are the two best candidates to take on DeSantis.

,

The Election is in 500 days the last polls that were polled were DeSANTIS and Rubio up by six, pts, that's not a landslide

The only person that are safe are Reynolds and DeWine whom are close to , 59 percent Approvals


It's still a VBM Election you can make the ballot at Post Offices not drop boxes, D's need some Red states to keep the H

Kelly is gonna win in red state KS, the reason why we can win FL Afro Americans dominate the state, and Biden in some polls are at 59 percent. Our D states are more safe because Biden is over 50% not 46% if Biden was like Trump, we would be losing MI, WI and PA

By 10 percentage points, actually, and even by 15 over Demings. So YES that is a landslide.

https://thecapitolist.com/desantis-posts-strong-approval-in-latest-florida-chamber-poll/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

[2016]

@UWS,
FL-GOV looks "Lean R" for sure!

[UWS]

@UWS,
FL-GOV looks "Lean R" for sure!

And so is FL-SEN.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Fried looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Demings looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Crist looks into running: "He's ruining (Whatevers left of) his political career"

Let's just cut the middle-man and say no FL Dem will win next year and its a foolish exercise determining who stands a "better chance". As far as I'm concerned, the best that Dems can hope for here is 47% and/or a 3 point loss.

Yes

I mean looking at it from a purely political perspective I kinda hope Fried wins the nomination just so we can get that "lol weed" empty suit out of politics.

But yes, I've never really understood the appeal of Nikki Fried. Her 2018 win was a bit of a fluke — she campaigned on marijuana, which was enough to get her the extra fraction of a percentage point over Nelson & Gillum, but I don't see how that translates to winning statewide office when she's at the top of the ticket. Think it's telling that her ad mentions that she won election but doesn't mention anything she did after that.

This exactly!

IMHO, If she wants to change minds about her and actually come off as a strong candidate then she needs to start pushing and passing popular and effective policies relating to agriculture (no, marijuana isn't enough) that has bipartisan support. And maybe if she gets really popular she could just fend for herself and hold her current position.

To be fair, Morgan is even more of a "lol weed" empty suit than Fried. Bankrolling Amendment 2 doesn't change that (It might even bolster it).

But I get you have a vendetta against her and that's fine. Personally, I'd be fine with either as the nominee even though it literally doesn't matter and I'm not expecting support to change between candidates.

[AlterEgo]

What, the Economy has something to do with Everything, Biden said he expect the Economy to grow and boom next yr, if Covid is Eradicated, the D's chances only improve, beyond, what we have now

Trump got 46% because we had a Trump Recession, that's why he lost

There were three polls in FL 52/42, 48%/48 and 53/47 all of them can be overcome in 500 days, if Rs can target blue states we can target red states

You don't want to talk about the Economy because you don't want to admit that DeSantis will lose


Again DeSantis is not as popular among minority groups as DeWine, that's why Biden isn't inviting DeSantis into WH, bit he has invited DeWine who will WIN

Oh, so you're saying that Trump wasn't blamed by many for the COVID recession, and he didn't win the state of Florida? Yep, the economy is clearly all that matters.

[AlterEgo]

IMHO Val Demings and John Morgan are the two best candidates to take on DeSantis.

Morgan has said he's getting out of the game — I know he thought seriously about it in '18 and earlier (he flew an acquaintance out to interview as his campaign manager), but the most recent thing he's said is that Amendment 2 was his last fight.

But yes, I've never really understood the appeal of Nikki Fried. Her 2018 win was a bit of a fluke — she campaigned on marijuana, which was enough to get her the extra fraction of a percentage point over Nelson & Gillum, but I don't see how that translates to winning statewide office when she's at the top of the ticket. Think it's telling that her ad mentions that she won election but doesn't mention anything she did after that.

In fairness, though, not really sure what policy wins the state's Agriculture Commissioner can hang her hat on that would endear her to the average voter. (Probably even harder to have many of those "wins" when you're the only statewide elected Democrat.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The polls show that DeSantis is a lock 🔒 for Reelection, there's nothing more to say about the Senate or Gov races

[brucejoel99]

Fried looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Demings looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Crist looks into running: "He's ruining (Whatevers left of) his political career"

Let's just cut the middle-man and say no FL Dem will win next year and its a foolish exercise determining who stands a "better chance". As far as I'm concerned, the best that Dems can hope for here is 47% and/or a 3 point loss.

Yeah, this is kinda where I've landed at this point. As I said before somewhere in the 9 pages of this thread, it's highly unlikely that any of these Democratic candidates would be able to beat DeSantis next year anyway, so it just doesn't feel worth it to invest much - if any - hope into this race &/or any of its contenders. All that being said, though, I think I've all-but-reached the conclusion that I'll end up voting for Fried when the primary comes around. For starters, I wouldn't be so quick to argue as some have that her winning in 2018 was a fluke, unless that entails DeSantis' & Scott's wins having also been flukes: she overperformed the top-of-the-ticket all across the state (at the same time that Sean Shaw for AG & Jeremy Ring for CFO were badly underperforming) & really managed to stand out in a way that you usually just don't see in a Democratic candidate for a down-ballot row office like Ag. Commissioner; she also had an organizing field staff that was independent of the chronically incompetent FDP (though they obviously worked together when necessary), & she's an SFL candidate in a time that Democratic statewide races have mostly been falling short here in recent years. Basically, I think she's good enough at message discipline, coalition-building, & campaign resource-allocation that even though we're very likely to lose anyway, that doesn't mean we shouldn't still try to at least give it our best shot. Ya never know, after all.

All of which is to say that while both Crist & Demings are basically guaranteed to lose a general, I think Fried has a chance, albeit not much of a better one. In any event, knowing this state, the FDP will find a way to manage to blow it in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fried looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Demings looks into running: "She's ruining her political career"

Crist looks into running: "He's ruining (Whatevers left of) his political career"

Let's just cut the middle-man and say no FL Dem will win next year and its a foolish exercise determining who stands a "better chance". As far as I'm concerned, the best that Dems can hope for here is 47% and/or a 3 point loss.

Yeah, this is kinda where I've landed at this point. As I said before somewhere in the 9 pages of this thread, it's highly unlikely that any of these Democratic candidates would be able to beat DeSantis next year anyway, so it just doesn't feel worth it to invest much - if any - hope into this race &/or any of its contenders. All that being said, though, I think I've all-but-reached the conclusion that I'll end up voting for Fried when the primary comes around. For starters, I wouldn't be so quick to argue as some have that her winning in 2018 was a fluke, unless that entails DeSantis' & Scott's wins having also been flukes: she overperformed the top-of-the-ticket all across the state (at the same time that Sean Shaw for AG & Jeremy Ring for CFO were badly underperforming) & really managed to stand out in a way that you usually just don't see in a Democratic candidate for a down-ballot row office like Ag. Commissioner; she also had an organizing field staff that was independent of the chronically incompetent FDP (though they obviously worked together when necessary), & she's an SFL candidate in a time that Democratic statewide races have mostly been falling short here in recent years. Basically, I think she's good enough at message discipline, coalition-building, & campaign resource-allocation that even though we're very likely to lose anyway, that doesn't mean we shouldn't still try to at least give it our best shot. Ya never know, after all.

All of which is to say that while both Crist & Demings are basically guaranteed to lose a general, I think Fried has a chance, albeit not much of a better one. In any event, knowing this state, the FDP will find a way to manage to blow it in the end.

Every INCUMBENT Gov is above 50% due to Covid is above 50% that's why Rs will fail against D Govs in WI, PA and MI

Biden is only at 51/49% Approvals not 60% Approvals, enough to replicate the 303 map in the Senate, D's need to target some red states as wave insurence for the H, we haven't seen any polls but if DeSantis is plus ten and Trump won FL by 3 than they won't get very far

Plus most of the S is getting rid of 300 Unemployment benefits checques

Manchin already said that he isn't renewing it next time and Tester too