Early Voting thread.

[Nyvin]

Lombardo I am 100% sure about. There is no path for Sisolak. I am pretty much set on Laxalt as well unless we see some huge wave of Mail randomly.

Big thank you to Steve Sisolak for mailing ballots to low-propensity Trumpists!

VOY A VOTAR

I think we're going to find that certain expansions of voting do help Republicans on net.  I still think that all mail-in helps Democrats, but we are probably at the point where longer in-person early voting helps Republicans in most places, and auto-registration likely helps them in places like Nevada or Appalachia.

Unless they're hyper-targeted to black people, voter suppression laws probably mostly work against the Republican Party's interest nowadays too.   

[Minnesota Mike]

Ralston keeps using the arbitrary day of today as the definitive "end of early vote" which continues to baffle me. Yes, that may have been the case in 2018, but we are still getting mail updates (and no more in person updates) after tonight.

Dems gained 4K in mail in the last update, Reps gained 2.5K in in-person. Say that happens again tonight, Clark firewall will jump another 1.5K. That's it for in person though.

Then we have Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night mail updates that could net Dems at least another 10-15K for their firewall. (plus anything that arrives after that)

I get that he's used to the end of "in person early voting" being the "end of the early vote" in general, but it's not this year, so I don't get why he's using that as a marker.

As you've already mentioned, it's not even like mail voting ends on Election Day: any ballot postmarked by Election Day and received by CoB on Saturday, 11/12 will also be counted. In a universal mail balloting system, you'd think nobody prognosticating in NV ever met procrastinating young people and/or Latinos & Asians before!

As an old white guy I'm glad somebody else said it

[2016]

This is going well beyond bad for Democrats in Florida
https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1588629634828341248

Certainly the Governors Race will be called at Poll Closing (8pm ET).

[Minnesota Mike]

This is going well beyond bad for Democrats in Florida
https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1588629634828341248

Certainly the Governors Race will be called at Poll Closing (8pm ET).

No doubt Democrats are getting absolutely crushed in Florida but in the larger scheme of things the margin does not really matter at least on a statewide or Federal level.  If the electorate is R+1 or R+10 Republicans will win the Gov, Sen, and 20 of 28 House seats. We have all known this since the redistricting maps passed this spring.

[Eraserhead]

This is going well beyond bad for Democrats in Florida
https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1588629634828341248

Certainly the Governors Race will be called at Poll Closing (8pm ET).

Maybe by Fox. CNN really won't call anything at poll closing these days unless it's like a 20 point blowout.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Ralston keeps using the arbitrary day of today as the definitive "end of early vote" which continues to baffle me. Yes, that may have been the case in 2018, but we are still getting mail updates (and no more in person updates) after tonight.

Dems gained 4K in mail in the last update, Reps gained 2.5K in in-person. Say that happens again tonight, Clark firewall will jump another 1.5K. That's it for in person though.

Then we have Sat night, Sun night, and Mon night mail updates that could net Dems at least another 10-15K for their firewall. (plus anything that arrives after that)

I get that he's used to the end of "in person early voting" being the "end of the early vote" in general, but it's not this year, so I don't get why he's using that as a marker.

As you've already mentioned, it's not even like mail voting ends on Election Day: any ballot postmarked by Election Day and received by CoB on Saturday, 11/12 will also be counted. In a universal mail balloting system, you'd think nobody prognosticating in NV ever met procrastinating young people and/or Latinos & Asians before!

As an old white guy I'm glad somebody else said it

Hot take: an R overperformance in NV is more likely to come from low turnout among Latino, Asian, and <35 voters than from an R surge among these groups.

[Nyvin]

I really hope it's apples and oranges in Nevada because the early vote looks pretty bleak.   Dems will be lucky to hold the legislature at this rate (if the numbers are comparable to previous elections).

The Dem margin in early votes is down to 5,200 votes total, that's horrible.

[MikeIrvine]

I really hope it's apples and oranges in Nevada because the early vote looks pretty bleak.   Dems will be lucky to hold the legislature at this rate (if the numbers are comparable to previous elections).

The Dem margin in early votes is down to 5,200 votes total, that's horrible.

It is, but in person early voting is over. There's a few days of mail ballots to beef up that margin, plus anything postmarked by election day is counted still

[wbrocks67]

I really hope it's apples and oranges in Nevada because the early vote looks pretty bleak.   Dems will be lucky to hold the legislature at this rate (if the numbers are comparable to previous elections).

The Dem margin in early votes is down to 5,200 votes total, that's horrible.

It is, but in person early voting is over. There's a few days of mail ballots to beef up that margin, plus anything postmarked by election day is counted still

Exactly; the Clark firewall was 47K when all was said and done in 2018 early vote. By Tuesday, it could definitely approach 40K depending on what comes in this weekend.

[It’s so Joever]

I really hope it's apples and oranges in Nevada because the early vote looks pretty bleak.   Dems will be lucky to hold the legislature at this rate (if the numbers are comparable to previous elections).

The Dem margin in early votes is down to 5,200 votes total, that's horrible.

It is, but in person early voting is over. There's a few days of mail ballots to beef up that margin, plus anything postmarked by election day is counted still

Exactly; the Clark firewall was 47K when all was said and done in 2018 early vote. By Tuesday, it could definitely approach 40K depending on what comes in this weekend.

Lol

[wbrocks67]

I really hope it's apples and oranges in Nevada because the early vote looks pretty bleak.   Dems will be lucky to hold the legislature at this rate (if the numbers are comparable to previous elections).

The Dem margin in early votes is down to 5,200 votes total, that's horrible.

It is, but in person early voting is over. There's a few days of mail ballots to beef up that margin, plus anything postmarked by election day is counted still

Exactly; the Clark firewall was 47K when all was said and done in 2018 early vote. By Tuesday, it could definitely approach 40K depending on what comes in this weekend.

Lol

I'm sorry that you don't like actual facts and data!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I really hope it's apples and oranges in Nevada because the early vote looks pretty bleak.   Dems will be lucky to hold the legislature at this rate (if the numbers are comparable to previous elections).

The Dem margin in early votes is down to 5,200 votes total, that's horrible.

It is, but in person early voting is over. There's a few days of mail ballots to beef up that margin, plus anything postmarked by election day is counted still

Exactly; the Clark firewall was 47K when all was said and done in 2018 early vote. By Tuesday, it could definitely approach 40K depending on what comes in this weekend.

Lol

I'm sorry that you don't like actual facts and data!

How is a “could be” a fact?

[roxas11]

When it comes to a state as unpredictable as Nevada its foolish to assume that we can predict the ultimate outcome of that election based on these current numbers

For example, back in 2010 everybody also believed that Harry raid was doomed since most polls showed him losing to his Republican opponent leading up to the election. In fact the polls in Nevada was even worse for the Dems than they are right now because at the end not a single poll showed harry Reid beating Sharron angle yet on election day he shocked everybody by winning by more than 5 points


The biggest take away from that election for me is that know one truly knows what's going to happen in Nevada until all of the votes are actually counted...

[It’s so Joever]

When it comes to a state as unpredictable as Nevada its foolish to assume that we can predict the ultimate outcome of that election based on these current numbers

For example, back in 2010 everybody also believed that Harry raid was doomed since most polls showed him losing to his Republican opponent leading up to the election. In fact the polls in Nevada was even worse for the Dems than they are right now because at the end not a single poll showed harry Reid beating Sharron angle yet on election day he shocked everybody by winning by more than 5 points


The biggest take away from that election for me is that know one truly knows what's going to happen in Nevada until all of the votes are actually counted...

Ralston knew Reid was able to win so…yeah bad comparison.

[SCNCmod]

Most of the polls that were conducted the last week in Oct  during Cortez-Masto's last election, also showed her losing. Then the polls conducted the first several days in Nov, showed her pull back ahead- Then she won by 3%.

So we will have to see what the polls released between Now & Monday say about her chances on Tuesday.

It's worth noting that Nevada is also the most Pro-Choice of all of the States with close Senate races (excluding NH- which i do not think will be close). So NV could be a state where abortion has more of an impact than polls are ahowing.

BTW- this is I think CCM's latest tweet (I think its an online ad... but actually would prob be effective to run as a TV ad:

https://twitter.com/cortezmasto/status/1588696920104767488

[MikeIrvine]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1588747012014768128?t=kJlyaVW1Dg-N6eCT...
Dems added to the firewall. Between 29 and 30k now. Interesting notes he added is that Dem margins are increasing later as compared to 2020 and there are a few days to pad the lead. Depending on how the weekend and Monday break...we could end up around 37-38k before election day and still have late mail ballots.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia

Day 19: Final Day of AIP (+ABM) Voting: 243,901 voters cast ballots Friday, for a grand total of 2,505,079 votes.

AIP: Very strong day for Democrats. Those following the numbers day-to-day can clearly see why. Lots of youngs storming the polls at the last-minute, as well as non-whites, first-time voters and a solid close-out performance among females.

ABM: A hair over 10k votes today were ABM, for a total of 216,187 thus far. This has been roughly the number received each day for the past week. We're 7,000 short of the final 2018 count with four days to go. Additionally, 79.00% of 273,630 valid Georgia ABMs have been returned thus far, effectively already reaching 2018's final percentage return rate.

Breakdown of Friday's voters:

Code:

130352 	White	53.44%
73528 	Black	30.15%
6029         Asian	2.47%
6907    	Latino	2.83%
27085 	Other	17.99%

139719	Female	57.29%
103175 	Male	        42.30%	
1007          Other       0.41%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1437750	White	57.39%
730971	Black	29.18%
47497	Asian	1.90%
47311       Latino	1.89%
241550	Other	9.64%

1391917	Female	55.56%
1106863	Male	        44.18%	
6299	        Other	0.26%

[SCNCmod]

It seems like I remember that in past elections, 32% Black vote was sort of the needed threshold.  Does the current numbers indicate lower Black turnout... or is the White turnout down also (meaning is other higher than prior years)? 

...not sure if 32% was overall- or early voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It seems like I remember that in past elections, 32% Black vote was sort of the needed threshold.  Does the current numbers indicate lower Black turnout... or is the White turnout down also (meaning is other higher than prior years)? 

...not sure if 32% was overall- or early voters.

i think it was overall votes.

[prag_prog]

It seems like I remember that in past elections, 32% Black vote was sort of the needed threshold.  Does the current numbers indicate lower Black turnout... or is the White turnout down also (meaning is other higher than prior years)? 

...not sure if 32% was overall- or early voters.

I don't think it was 32%. In 2020 November general election, Black vote % was around 28.5% after early voting. Whereas it was slightly higher around 30% for the Senate runoffs. Current Black Vote % is somewhere between 2020 general election and 2021 GA Senate runoffs. Also if you look at race, the Other % has increased a lot in recent years. That's why a better comparison would be White Vote % - Black Vote % than just looking at Black Vote %

[prag_prog]

Some good points mentioned in this twitter thread. It does seem like younger voters are reverting back to pre-covid habit of returning ballots closer to the election. A big question mark is whether younger voters (18-29 group) are gonna also revert back to voting on E-Day like they used to do pre-covid

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1588753908113235969

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1588756579871907842

[prag_prog]

Turnout in AZ06 so far looks quite interesting. State of Arizona is R+4 registration wise and so far Dems turnout in AZ is 43% and Reps turnout is 36.4%. AZ06 district is also R+4 registration wise but so far Dems turnout is 51% and R's turnout is 35.5%. Crazy overperformance from Dems in this particular district. I wonder why there is such big increase in Dems turnout in this particular district when compared to rest of the state. Is this an older heavily white district ? That's the only reason which atleast makes some sense to understand such high turnout.

[bilaps]

Clark firewall stands at 29,2k votes. Add around 400 from Washoe.

Clark firewall is around 7% which is not good for Dems.

Waiting for full rural numbers today.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

BTW- this is I think CCM's latest tweet (I think its an online ad... but actually would prob be effective to run as a TV ad:

https://twitter.com/cortezmasto/status/1588696920104767488

Jimmy Kimmel actually says something funny and useful for once. Good to see!

[Adam Griffin]

The problem with Nevada (Clark specifically, which as a single county I believe comprises a greater share of a statewide electorate than any other in the country) is how independents go: not a lot of great comparable data-points for this election.

In theory and independent of this election/climate, the Clarke firewall could be 50k and Dems could still lose; inversely, the firewall could be 15k and Dems could still win. If indies go 10 points in favor of either party, that creates a 20-point margin gap among 30% of the electorate across 75% of the state = (20 x 0.3 x 0.75): that's a 4.5 point margin differential. In a state like NV, that's fairly huge: the difference between the 2018 wins versus statistical ties or the difference between close D wins and outright R wins.