2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[2016]

I still feel quite good about Republicans taking the House.

Texas Primary was 64 % Republican / 36 % Democratic

We will have to see if this holds in places like Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, etc in May.

Those are actually liberal saboteurs who showed up just to defeat the Trumpians. Strangely enough, my cousin’s sister-in-law’s friend is one of these and he said he’s a Biden -> Biden disapprover -> generic ballot undecided -> R primary -> straight ticket D voter

Nonsense! The Enthusiasm all over the Country are with Republicans. You will see Record Primary Turnouts in GOP Primaries.

[ElectionsGuy]

I still feel quite good about Republicans taking the House.

Texas Primary was 64 % Republican / 36 % Democratic

We will have to see if this holds in places like Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, etc in May.

Those are actually liberal saboteurs who showed up just to defeat the Trumpians. Strangely enough, my cousin’s sister-in-law’s friend is one of these and he said he’s a Biden -> Biden disapprover -> generic ballot undecided -> R primary -> straight ticket D voter

Nonsense! The Enthusiasm all over the Country are with Republicans. You will see Record Primary Turnouts in GOP Primaries.

Your sarcasm detector needs repair

[Roll Roons]

DCCC announces its first list of "Red to Blue" candidates and adds several frontline members: https://mailchi.mp/1aa185addc72/dccc-announces-changes-to-its-2022-house-battlefield-names-first-round-of-candidates-to-coveted-red-to-blue-list?e=f7ed7e5be5

Red to Blue:
Rudy Salas (CA-22, Valadao)
Jay Chen (CA-45, Steel)
Brittany Petersen (CO-07, Open Dem-held)
Christina Bohannon (IA-01, Miller-Meeks)
Liz Mathis (IA-02, Hinson)
Nikki Budzinski (IL-13, Open)
Hillary Scholten (MI-03, Meijer)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-02, Herrell)
Jackie Gordon (NY-01, Open)
Max Rose (NY-11, Malliotakis)
Greg Landsman (OH-01, Chabot)
Emilia Sykes (OH-13, Open)

Frontline:
CT-02 (Courtney)
NC-06 (Manning)
PA-06 (Houlahan)

[Politician]

DCCC announces its first list of "Red to Blue" candidates and adds several frontline members: https://mailchi.mp/1aa185addc72/dccc-announces-changes-to-its-2022-house-battlefield-names-first-round-of-candidates-to-coveted-red-to-blue-list?e=f7ed7e5be5

Red to Blue:
Rudy Salas (CA-22, Valadao)
Jay Chen (CA-45, Steel)
Brittany Petersen (CO-07, Open Dem-held)
Christina Bohannon (IA-01, Miller-Meeks)
Liz Mathis (IA-02, Hinson)
Nikki Budzinski (IL-13, Open)
Hillary Scholten (MI-03, Meijer)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-02, Herrell)
Jackie Gordon (NY-01, Open)
Max Rose (NY-11, Malliotakis)
Greg Landsman (OH-01, Chabot)
Emilia Sykes (OH-13, Open)

Frontline:
CT-02 (Courtney)
NC-06 (Manning)
PA-06 (Houlahan)

Yes, Democrats should definitely pour tons of money into winning back the #populists of IA-1 and IA-2 who will totally snap back to 2012 voting patterns without Trump on the ballot.

[Brittain33]

Yes, Democrats should definitely pour tons of money into winning back the #populists of IA-1 and IA-2 who will totally snap back to 2012 voting patterns without Trump on the ballot.

Those districts have been competitive a lot more recently than 2012.

[lfromnj]

Yes, Democrats should definitely pour tons of money into winning back the #populists of IA-1 and IA-2 who will totally snap back to 2012 voting patterns without Trump on the ballot.

Those districts have been competitive a lot more recently than 2012.

Iowa 2 even moved a point left !.

Its a waste for 2022 though.

[Unelectable Bystander]

DCCC announces its first list of "Red to Blue" candidates and adds several frontline members: https://mailchi.mp/1aa185addc72/dccc-announces-changes-to-its-2022-house-battlefield-names-first-round-of-candidates-to-coveted-red-to-blue-list?e=f7ed7e5be5

Red to Blue:
Rudy Salas (CA-22, Valadao)
Jay Chen (CA-45, Steel)
Brittany Petersen (CO-07, Open Dem-held)
Christina Bohannon (IA-01, Miller-Meeks)
Liz Mathis (IA-02, Hinson)
Nikki Budzinski (IL-13, Open)
Hillary Scholten (MI-03, Meijer)
Gabe Vasquez (NM-02, Herrell)
Jackie Gordon (NY-01, Open)
Max Rose (NY-11, Malliotakis)
Greg Landsman (OH-01, Chabot)
Emilia Sykes (OH-13, Open)

Frontline:
CT-02 (Courtney)
NC-06 (Manning)
PA-06 (Houlahan)

One of these lists is not like the other

[NotSoLucky]

Any news regarding primary challengers in WA-9? Not a fan of the incumbent Adam Smith 

[2016]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

[Politician]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

Polls gonna poll

[S019]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712
FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

Polls gonna poll

The poll didn't include party affiliation, which makes it useless

[Roll Roons]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712
FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

Polls gonna poll

The poll didn't include party affiliation, which makes it useless

Yeah. That's the biggest problem with this poll...

[Pink Panther]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712
FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

Lol

[S019]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712
FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

Polls gonna poll

The poll didn't include party affiliation, which makes it useless

Yeah. That's the biggest problem with this poll...

Well that can easily explain the issue with it as people for all they know could just be saying they want an alternative to Gaetz. Polls that don't list party affiliation tend to have very weird results. This bizarre Utah poll from a few years back is another example: http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/14293-poll-romney-wins-matchup-and-likely-will-run-if-hatch-doesn-t

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

I mean, I'm sure this is an outlier, but it's not as silly as folks are acting either in the sense that we know how this result came about.  Gaetz is a well-known pedophile who committed statutory rape against a minor procured for him through a sex trafficking ring and is likely going to end up in federal prison when all is said and done.  Also, I doubt anyone knows who Jones is and party ID wasn't included (obviously it should've been).  

[2016]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

I mean, I'm sure this is an outlier, but it's not as silly as folks are acting either in the sense that we know how this result came about.  Gaetz is a well-known pedophile who committed statutory rape against a minor procured for him through a sex trafficking ring and is likely going to end up in federal prison when all is said and done.  Also, I doubt anyone knows who Jones is and party ID wasn't included (obviously it should've been).  

That's not the Point! The Point is no way on Earth would Republicans lose an R +30 District in a Biden Midterm NO MATTER WHO THE GOP NOMINEE IS!

[Unelectable Bystander]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712
FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

I mean, I'm sure this is an outlier, but it's not as silly as folks are acting either in the sense that we know how this result came about.  Gaetz is a well-known pedophile who committed statutory rape against a minor procured for him through a sex trafficking ring and is likely going to end up in federal prison when all is said and done.  Also, I doubt anyone knows who Jones is and party ID wasn't included (obviously it should've been).  

That's not the Point! The Point is no way on Earth would Republicans lose an R +30 District in a Biden Midterm NO MATTER WHO THE GOP NOMINEE IS!

Honestly Gaetz is a worse candidate than both Mitch and Rand Paul. We know that both of them are endangered so I think this is a sneaky pickup opportunity which warrants millions of investment

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yet another FAKE POLL coming out here:
https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1503087795006451712

FL-1 has a Partisan Voting Index (PVI) of R+30!

I mean, I'm sure this is an outlier, but it's not as silly as folks are acting either in the sense that we know how this result came about.  Gaetz is a well-known pedophile who committed statutory rape against a minor procured for him through a sex trafficking ring and is likely going to end up in federal prison when all is said and done.  Also, I doubt anyone knows who Jones is and party ID wasn't included (obviously it should've been).  

That's not the Point! The Point is no way on Earth would Republicans lose an R +30 District in a Biden Midterm NO MATTER WHO THE GOP NOMINEE IS!

TALKING IN ALL CAPS IS REALLY DUMB!

[2016]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

[Person Man]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

A lot of the people who disapprove Biden probably disapprove of Republicans more. I can see a result where about an even amount of people on each quickly make up their minds and vote, but that the remaining 10% break 2:1 GOP when they get in the voting booth. That gives the Republicans a 3-4% win and with the degerrymandering, probably gives us a result similar to the edge the GOP had between 1995 and 2007. Between 225 and 235 seats.  It will take a LOT to get the big margins in Congress they had in 2011, 2015, 2017 and in the 1920s.

[ElectionsGuy]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

[2016]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

There's a very clear pattern here with the liberal media and university polls (Quinnipiac, Monmouth, Ipsos, YouGov, etc.). They overwhelmingly overestimated Biden's margins in the 2020 elections. They had overwhelming numbers of approval in his early presidency (55-62%), but now they have very low numbers of approval for Biden (like the accurate pollsters) but either statistically tied or Democrats leading in the generic ballot. Their independents are clearly too metropolitan and liberal (and they underrepresent Republicans in many cases). You still see some polls (like Marist with their "Biden bump") showing a D+6 electorate. The 2020 election was a D+1 electorate. The days of D+4 or more are over, but especially for this midterm.

Let's just say that I'm looking at a pollster I trust right now and they have a very similar Biden approval but their generic ballot is dramatically more Republican. Again, common sense, does it make sense that a president in the low 40's in approval would tie or win the generic ballot vote in a midterm? Has that ever happened in the modern era?

I trust Trafalgar Poll a lot. They nailed VA & NJ Governor Races! They had WI, MI, PA way tighter than other Polls in the 2020 Race.

NBC Exit Poll 2014 had Obama at 44 % JA Nationally / House Vote was 45,5 % Nationally that year for the Democrats.

NBC Exit Poll 2018 had Trump at 45 % JA Nationally / House Vote was 44,8 % Nationally that year for Republicans.

So YES, usually the President JA and the National House Vote tracking very close together.

Also, the new WSJ Poll seems ok too.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

A lot of the people who disapprove Biden probably disapprove of Republicans more. I can see a result where about an even amount of people on each quickly make up their minds and vote, but that the remaining 10% break 2:1 GOP when they get in the voting booth. That gives the Republicans a 3-4% win and with the degerrymandering, probably gives us a result similar to the edge the GOP had between 1995 and 2007. Between 225 and 235 seats.  It will take a LOT to get the big margins in Congress they had in 2011, 2015, 2017 and in the 1920s.

I think there’s some validity to this. If Biden’s approval stays in the high 30’s or low 40’s, there’s a good chance that this is the first midterm where a party outperforms the presidential approval. The reason for this is the small but significant pouty wing of the Dems who despise anybody who doesn’t agree with their priorities, but will still vote D despite not liking Biden. But these people are also already polling D in the generic ballot. The lion’s share of undecideds are independents, mostly moderate but some conservative, who all disapprove of Biden. There’s simply no reason for this 8% of the electorate to eventually break Dem though, which is why we should be watching for D vote share in the generic ballot instead of net margin

[Roll Roons]

I actually wonder if Cawthorn could be in more trouble in his primary than people seem to think: https://twitter.com/SenThomTillis/status/1504504376223846402?cxt=HHwWhMC-vcmwieE...

[ꙮ]

Monmouth National Poll has Biden at 39/55 JA, the Right Track/Wrong Track Number at 20/72

BUT the GCB at 46/46

Give me a break! What is Monmouth and their Pollster Patrick Murray fabricating here? Unbelievable!

Democrats are not going to overperform Bidens Number by 7 Points Nationally.

If they were going to make up GCB numbers why wouldn't they also make up the JA numbers