2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[jimrtex]

Kanye West received about 60,000 votes as of now. His best state was Tennessee.

https://www.nydailynews.com/snyde/ny-kanye-west-60000-votes-20201105-xje2ti6s3nd6noycwrnbnvapri-story.html

His first vote of his life was writing in himself. I wonder how many presidential candidates can say that. Even Trump probably voted before.

Eisenhower

Eisenhower voted Republican before 1952, according to himself

Washington

[jimrtex]

Trump becomes the fourth president to never win the PV, after JQ Adams, Hayes, and B Harrison

JFK

[jimrtex]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

My favorite two-name county has to be Deaf Smith County.

Inappropriate and very non-PC, GM.  

*Very* rude.  The most rude.  

It's named after partially deaf soldier, but the pronunciation is "Deef" which is how he pronounced his nickname.

Erastus Smith destroyed Vince's Bridge which cut off the retreat of Santa Anna after the battle of San Jacinto during the Revolution. The county is generally pronounced Deff rather than Deef.

I was at the county museum in Hereford, and there was a woman helping translate documents from Italian. There had been a POW camp there in WWII housing Italian prisoners. She was dressed in a stylish way that I would associate with French or Italian women (maybe a dress, rather than skirt or slacks and a blouse). I asked how she ended up in Hereford. She kind of googly eyed and said that she had met a boy from Hereford who was with the Navy (6th Fleet HQ is in Naples).

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/ZcohenCNN/status/1324849481381257218
Good grief.

And the person who wins the popular vote should become President but you don't change the rules while in the middle of play.

Under Texas statute a write-in vote for the vice presidential candidate is the same as a write-in for the presidential candidate. You are actually voting for electors who will have two votes.

[jimrtex]

I'm starting to think our fears of post-election violence were overblown.

(Not saying there won't be small pockets of unrest, but so far, thousands of Trump supporters haven't taken to the streets.)

*fingers crossed*

There were 600 arrested in Minneapolis.

[jimrtex]

As a teacher, I love this. Other than Trump and Barr, I will be most happy to see her go.

They look more like teachers union bosses taking a cruise.

[jimrtex]

Will the electoral college be able to meet in states with more than 10 electors and a Democratic governor (Washington, California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey)?

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1326345253360635904

What is Donald Trump’s legal strategy at this point?

Marc Elias besides being the bagman for the bogus Steele dossier, was the Democrat lawyer in NC-9 case where there was a new election because the election was "tainted by fraud" rather than anywhere enough votes to overturn the results.

[jimrtex]

Will the electoral college be able to meet in states with more than 10 electors and a Democratic governor (Washington, California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey)?

Yes.

Indoors. Haven't governors banned indoor gatherings of more than 10 people?

[jimrtex]

This Logan Act stuff with the Biden transition the Republicans are trying to drum up is bs. Flynn was doing this behind everyone’s backs while Biden is publicly stating what he’s said in the calls and isn’t undermining foreign policy.

You misunderstand.

In the January 5, 2017 meeting, attended by both then-president Obama and then-vice-president Biden, the Logan Act was brought up. Some say it was Biden, others say they would have remembered if it was Biden. In any case actual lawyers realized that the Logan Act is unconstitutional and no one could be successfully prosecuted.

[jimrtex]

You don't know that though. They apparently determined the batches couldn't be friendly enough for that to happen, or at least the chance was statistically insignificant based on the data they had.

You don't know this.

If they were that good, they could have come out and said that Biden will get between 49.3% and 49.5% of the vote, with a lead between 0.2% and 0.4%.

They didn't.

[jimrtex]

Will the electoral college be able to meet in states with more than 10 electors and a Democratic governor (Washington, California, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey)?

Yes.

Indoors. Haven't governors banned indoor gatherings of more than 10 people?

They just have to vote in the capital. They don't have to meet in the same room or even indoors.

They don't have to meet in the capital. New York electors used to meet in Hudson, and Alaska electors have met in Anchorage.

But they do have to meet (12th Amendment).

It would set a bad example if electors were able to meet after citizens had to forgo Thanksgiving with family and a bunch of politicians met. States could simply delay having a meeting, and Congress could delay counting of the electoral votes, or simply base the election on results from states where electors did meet.

[jimrtex]

They said he'd win. That means they had a 99.5% confidence interval for [Biden - Trump] that did not include 0 or any negative values. Beyond that it's totally unknown what they had. It could have been a big interval or small interval (probably big but who knows). They don't have to estimate Biden's percentage of the vote at all, and the fact they didn't speaks nothing to their capability. When was the last time you saw a call with estimated final percentages attached? I can't think of a single one.

If they were that good, they would also know that the other candidates would get 1.5% of the vote. It is idiotic to believe that they thought the other vote could end up 0.5% or 2.5% but no matter what Biden would eke out a win.

If you believe that they had a 99.5% confidence interval, then you acknowledge they were using statistical methods and not just going on a hunch. If so, their statisticians had a mean estimate and a standard deviation. It is unbelievably unlikely that it would be less than 0.1%.

[jimrtex]

Maybe this will get Republicans to support mandatory paper ballots and scientifically sampled verification for voting machines.

For federal elections, 1-3 ballot papers filled out in person, hand tallied and recorded at each precinct.

Elections would be held over two days, with employees guaranteed one day off. Precincts would be manageable size (500 voters, smaller in more remote areas).

Federal ID's would be required. When a citizen moves, his registration would automatically be moved. ID's would also be used for employment purposes.

Remote voting would be possible. If you lived in Boston, but were in Boise, Berlin, or Bangkok on election day, you could vote. Show your ID, and the proper ballot would be produced. Ballots would be returned in diplomatic pouches.

Curbside voting would be available for those with mobility limitations. Election officials would go to those with infirmities.

[jimrtex]

This Logan Act stuff with the Biden transition the Republicans are trying to drum up is bs. Flynn was doing this behind everyone’s backs while Biden is publicly stating what he’s said in the calls and isn’t undermining foreign policy.

You misunderstand.

In the January 5, 2017 meeting, attended by both then-president Obama and then-vice-president Biden, the Logan Act was brought up. Some say it was Biden, others say they would have remembered if it was Biden. In any case actual lawyers realized that the Logan Act is unconstitutional and no one could be successfully prosecuted.

I'm referring to something different where recently Ted Cruz accused Biden of violating the Logan Act by calling world leaders after his victory.

You are twisting it around.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Zoykg1a-xY

Cruz was questioning Andrew McCabe, about whether he thought Biden's actions violated the Logan Act. McCabe weasled, claiming he was unaware of Ben Rhode's claims that Biden was communicating with foreign governments.

[jimrtex]

They don't have to meet in the capital. New York electors used to meet in Hudson, and Alaska electors have met in Anchorage.

Yeah I remembered that wrong, sorry.

If they were that good, they would also know that the other candidates would get 1.5% of the vote. It is idiotic to believe that they thought the other vote could end up 0.5% or 2.5% but no matter what Biden would eke out a win.

If you believe that they had a 99.5% confidence interval, then you acknowledge they were using statistical methods and not just going on a hunch. If so, their statisticians had a mean estimate and a standard deviation. It is unbelievably unlikely that it would be less than 0.1%.

You can literally make this argument about any call any news organization has ever made. "If they're that good they could have just estimated the percentage. Oh look, the result was closer than I was expecting based on the quick call, no way they could have gotten it so close. Why didn't they give me the percentages?"

Yes they were using statistical methods, unless they are outright liars, and I don't believe they are.

If they predicted that it would 5% +/- 4%, and other organizations predicted that it would be 3% +/-4% or even 1% +/-4%. The others would have held off because they were not certain, even though their estimates were more correct, and Fox's would have been outside the actual result.

[jimrtex]

Note: In some cases the latest voting data may be delayed, and as more fraud is reported and analysed the fraud numbers may continue increase. We have a significant amount of voting data and fraud examples that we have received and have yet to process, so expect regular updates.

Did Trump put this website together himself? It's doing that thing where it keys in on one word and uses it ad nauseum. 

"Sure there's fraud.  Lots of fraud.  Even the smallest examples of fraud are huge examples of fraud.  All part of the fraud hoax.  All a hoax." 

Our election was hijacked by #BigFatFraud. There is no question. Congress has a duty to #ProtectOurDemocracyFromFraud & #FollowTheFactsNotTheFraud. #SAD #iWonTheElection


https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/864522009048494080

Hey Russian Bear, you didn't notice that Pelosi tweet was from 2017. She was talking about the 2016 election.

[jimrtex]

Yes the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley the Black mayor of Los Angeles, who twice failed to be elected Governor despite polls saying he would win. But the consensus seems to be that is not what is happening now. What is happening now is that Republicans simply refuse to engage with polls - they hang up when a poll calls them, whether it's a live call or a robocall. They do this for the same reason they no longer watch the network news or read newspapers. They have retreated into Trumpworld, a fantasy world where they can believe their own facts, and they won't let anyone in from the real world outside. That's also the only possible explanation for 70 million people voting for the most disastrous failure in the history of US government.

What kind of person engages with robocalls?

Overall, completion of polling calls is around 10%.

If Democrats, get a polling call for a dead relative, they go ahead and answer because they are afraid their social security fraud will be detected.

[jimrtex]

It's all a grift. Trump can fleece his supporters. The campaign staff can please their boss by claiming we still have a path forward. The lawyers get lucrative billable hours for doing nothing. Why bother stopping?

Who paid for the Wisconsin recount in 2016?

[jimrtex]

Kinda surprised that Trump & Co. have not set their sights on the weeks-long vote count in NY yet.

All of this is indeed a joke.

Trump's not entirely wrong on this (but I have said so for years, before he ever did).

There should be no state with final results taking longer than a week or 10 days after election day.

States like NY or CA need to look at states like NH or DE who quickly count their votes and see how it's done ...

The US should hold federal elections on a single day using 1 to 3 paper ballots in different colors. Voting will be in person, and after polls close the ballots will be hand counted. All the ballots and other election materials will be placed in a vehicle similar to the Popemobile and carried to county election offices, where the votes will be tabulated on whiteboards by school children.

Elections will be held over two days, with all employees required to have at least one day off. Small family-run businesses may choose to close one day.

Federal ID's will be required to vote. Federal ID's will be issued to all citizens and permanent residents over age 15. Special ID's will be issued to those on temporary visas. No ID's will be issued to those who are irregularly in the country (illegal aliens). ID's will be used to control employment, housing, and opening of bank accounts, as well as the Census.

When a citizen moves and updates their address, they will be automatically registered in their new location, and de-registered in their old location.

Special marking devices will be available for those with physical, visual, or language disabilities. There will be curbside voting for those with mobility issues. For persons confined to home, or other facilities, election officials will go to them.

There will be remote voting facilities in foreign countries at locations such as embassies, consulates, and military bases. Show your ID, and the proper ballot will be generated. The voted ballots will be returned by special current. Similar remote centers will be available throughout the United States.

[jimrtex]

Alben Barkley fantasizes about being Biden's Leni Riefenstahl.

WTF kind of projection is this? Am I the one claiming someone who lost decisively "won in a landslide" and calling for people to "reclaim the country" from the rightful winners?

F--k off.

Claiming that she is advocating use of militia is far fetched.

[jimrtex]

Is anybody else having a hard time trying to find the Pennsylvania results page?

Yes already wrote,  i get redirect on
https://www.votespa.com/Voting-in-PA/Pages/Pennsylvania-Voter-Election-Security-Information.aspx

A lot of pages like the PA or OK results pages can’t be accessed from the EU ...

Election security?

[jimrtex]

NY really needs to reform its election system the next 4 years ...

Vienna, a city of 2 million, counted 400.000 postal ballots in 2 days without pre-processing.

NY, a state of 20 million, counts 1.6 million postal ballots for 6 weeks !

Are Austrian postal ballots actually postal ballots (placed in ordinary mail for delivery to electoral authorities)?

[jimrtex]

Kinda funny that Delaware was the first state with official results and now Georgia the first state to ascertain Trump’s loss at the National Archives ...

Also: I didn’t know that Stacey Abrams is an Electoral College member for Biden. I thought they’d choose more obscure people for this job.

It depends on the State.

In New York, they are quite prominent: Cuomo, Mr. and Mrs. Clinton, Hochul, etc., though some step aside for campaign workers.

Texas laws prevent electors from holding other public offices, and the resign to run law could actually force resignation if the oath of office is taken. In 2016, two elector-elects did not take the oath because they would have lost their position; two did not because they worked on the staff of congressmen; one because he could in conscience vote for Trump.

In some States electors are chosen at state party conventions, typically be congressional district. If you have a lot of amateurs such as a State dominated by Sanderistas, they can choose electors loyal to the candidate rather than the party (that was what happened in Washington and Colorado).

[jimrtex]

NY really needs to reform its election system the next 4 years ...

Vienna, a city of 2 million, counted 400.000 postal ballots in 2 days without pre-processing.

NY, a state of 20 million, counts 1.6 million postal ballots for 6 weeks !

Are Austrian postal ballots actually postal ballots (placed in ordinary mail for delivery to electoral authorities)?

We don’t have public drop boxes if that’s what you mean.

You can either mail it back, or fill it out/cast your ballot right after requesting it at your local municipal office. You can also return it personally later, or on Election Day. Or if you are sick on Election Day you can hand it over to a „flying voting commission.“

No, what I meant is if you return via the postal service do you just drop it in the same box that you use for mailing a postcard to your cousin in Vienna, TX (USA), or is there some special procedure. How do they know the ballot is from you?