2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

So has Allegheny already processed their ballots and is just waiting for 5pm to report the count? Or is 5pm when they can start processing (in which case it we might not even get them at all today)?

CNN said they've been processing over the course of the afternoon, and showed video footage of them doing so.

[Calthrina950]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

I don't expect 2016 and 2020 suburban trends to continue in 2024.  The downballot races this year show that people have overestimated the extent to which the suburbs were revolting against Republicans.  Rather, they were simply turning against Donald Trump himself.

Weren't you the one who said that Trump would hold Oklahoma County? You turned out to be correct, and it's clear that the suburbs aren't gone for the Republicans. Indeed, they flipped back a number of suburban districts, such as SC-01 and OK-05, and came close in a few others (i.e. IL-14).

[GeorgiaModerate]

So has Allegheny already processed their ballots and is just waiting for 5pm to report the count? Or is 5pm when they can start processing (in which case it we might not even get them at all today)?

There is one tranche of ballots they have been counting today and will supposedly report at 5pm.  There is another group that (due to court order) they can't start processing until 5.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

[DaleCooper]

If they're waiting to call the election, then that's fine I suppose. Better safe than sorry is a fair excuse for such a big decision, even if I think they're being too hesitant. But the way they're baselessly speculating about how Trump can still win if he wins the Philadelphia or Clark County mail in votes is so dishonest that it's possibly among the most dishonorable moments of the MSM throughout the entire Trump presidency. This is the kind of crap I'd expect from a partisan YouTuber in denial about the state of the race.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

My favorite two-name county has to be Deaf Smith County.

[Calthrina950]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

Are you surprised by how Texas turned out? Cornyn won easily, with a almost-identical margin and percentage to what he got in 2002 and 2008, and Trump also won the state without difficulty. Most polls seemed to indicate that Texas was a tossup at the presidential level and a potential upset for Senate.

[lfromnj]

Remember what happened to King in Iowa? If Greene makes a fool of herself and looses all power as a Representative during her term she will probably lose the primary, and the GOP will fund someone pretty heavily to beat her if need be.

Kings District was conservative, but never as burning ruby red as greenes

Yeah remember Obama only lost Iowa 4th in its current iteration by like 2 points in 2008.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

My favorite two-name county has to be Deaf Smith County.

Inappropriate and very non-PC, GM.  

*Very* rude.  The most rude. 

[tjstarling]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

I don't expect 2016 and 2020 suburban trends to continue in 2024.  The downballot races this year show that people have overestimated the extent to which the suburbs were revolting against Republicans.  Rather, they were simply turning against Donald Trump himself.

Weren't you the one who said that Trump would hold Oklahoma County? You turned out to be correct, and it's clear that the suburbs aren't gone for the Republicans. Indeed, they flipped back a number of suburban districts, such as SC-01 and OK-05, and came close in a few others (i.e. IL-14).

I just have a really terrible suspicion that many suburban areas (but not all like NOVA) will snap back to the pubs a bit while white non-college voters stay where they are.

[Frenchrepublican]

AZ :
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1324820164756602881?s=20

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

Are you surprised by how Texas turned out? Cornyn won easily, with a almost-identical margin and percentage to what he got in 2002 and 2008, and Trump also won the state without difficulty. Most polls seemed to indicate that Texas was a tossup at the presidential level and a potential upset for Senate.

Nope.  I was never sold on Texas flipping this cycle (though I thought it would be closer).  Trump's over-performance in the RGV was insane. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

Are you surprised by how Texas turned out? Cornyn won easily, with a almost-identical margin and percentage to what he got in 2002 and 2008, and Trump also won the state without difficulty. Most polls seemed to indicate that Texas was a tossup at the presidential level and a potential upset for Senate.

Something I'm curious about but haven't dug into numbers to look at: if Biden had gotten HRC levels of support from Hispanics, would he have won Texas?

[BudgieForce]

Montana has some great county names.

[Frenchrepublican]

NC :
https://twitter.com/tmillsNC/status/1324825998219726849?s=20

[Roronoa D. Law]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

I don't expect 2016 and 2020 suburban trends to continue in 2024.  The downballot races this year show that people have overestimated the extent to which the suburbs were revolting against Republicans.  Rather, they were simply turning against Donald Trump himself.

That the same thing Democrat said about rural and white working-class voters with Obama. They just didn't want to vote for the black man they said. Democrats problem with those voters proceeded Obama and Republicans problems with suburban voters proceeded Trump.

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Suffolk NY, Collin TX, Macomb MI, Kern CA, Oklahoma OK, Lee FL, Denton TX, El Paso CO, Polk FL

[Battista Minola 1616]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

My favorite two-name county has to be Deaf Smith County.

Inappropriate and very non-PC, GM.  

*Very* rude.  The most rude. 

Actually the most non-PC county in Texas is Jeff Davis County.

[Roll Roons]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Collin and Denton

Also Suffolk (NY), Nassau, Kern, Lee (FL), El Paso (CO), Polk (FL). Though I think Nassau will probably flip to Biden once mail ballots are counted.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Pennsylvania's going through the same "a few hundred votes here, a few hundred votes there" margin fluctuation as Georgia. Presumably they're counting those non-Philly/Allegheny provisionals Kornacki is so worried about.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

Are you surprised by how Texas turned out? Cornyn won easily, with a almost-identical margin and percentage to what he got in 2002 and 2008, and Trump also won the state without difficulty. Most polls seemed to indicate that Texas was a tossup at the presidential level and a potential upset for Senate.

Something I'm curious about but haven't dug into numbers to look at: if Biden had gotten HRC levels of support from Hispanics, would he have won Texas?

He prolly still would've narrowly lost it. The metro areas swing like 13 points to Biden, but outside that, he didn't have too many other impressive swings towards him.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/dfriedman33/status/1324809263345213448

[Calthrina950]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Looking at you, Jim Wells County!

Are you surprised by how Texas turned out? Cornyn won easily, with a almost-identical margin and percentage to what he got in 2002 and 2008, and Trump also won the state without difficulty. Most polls seemed to indicate that Texas was a tossup at the presidential level and a potential upset for Senate.

Something I'm curious about but haven't dug into numbers to look at: if Biden had gotten HRC levels of support from Hispanics, would he have won Texas?

Probably not, given that he only matched (or slightly underperformed) Beto O'Rourke's numbers in DFW, Houston, and San Antonio, and did worse than O'Rourke in Austin and El Paso. It would have been closer though, possibly within 1-2%.

[n1240]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Collin and Denton

Also Suffolk (NY), Nassau, Kern, Lee (FL), El Paso (CO), Polk (FL). Though I think Nassau will probably flip to Biden once mail ballots are counted.

Nassau has about a D+40000 party reg advantage on mail so I think it almost certainly flips.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

I don't expect 2016 and 2020 suburban trends to continue in 2024.  The downballot races this year show that people have overestimated the extent to which the suburbs were revolting against Republicans.  Rather, they were simply turning against Donald Trump himself.

That the same thing Democrat said about rural and white working-class voters with Obama. They just didn't want to vote for the black man they said. Democrats problem with those voters proceeded Obama and Republicans problems with suburban voters proceeded Trump.

Democrats went from holding 87 of the 100 largest counties to 91 of the 100 largest. We are getting there. Who knows we may be at 96/100 come 2024 unless that bipolar county with two names pulls something.

Which are the ones we're not winning yet?

Suffolk NY, Collin TX, Macomb MI, Kern CA, Oklahoma OK, Lee FL, Denton TX, El Paso CO, Polk FL

Wait you're telling me that party of liberal elitists isn't winning the Hamptons?

[Lewist123]

I get the feeling the networks are holding out for a primetime call followed by the Biden speech for maximum drama.