California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If Lee actually were appointed, do people think she would win the primary? It seems to me like CA voters are pretty sick of having an octogenarian senator. And appointed Senators lose primaries all the time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

At this point he should just appoint Schiff as a f*** you to Lee.

He won't appoint Schiff he wants to run for Prez in 28 and Blks and Latinos saved him during recall, Elder got 9 percentage pts of the blk vote but was polling very well before Eday


But, Harris and Moore are gonna be the nominees Newsom will lose MI and SC in 28 to Harris and James Harrison is almost guaranteed to run in SC for open Scott seat

That's why I have SC D it's changing like NC

[Greedo punched first]

If Lee actually were appointed, do people think she would win the primary? It seems to me like CA voters are pretty sick of having an octogenarian senator. And appointed Senators lose primaries all the time.

Also, at best, Lee will only be able to serve one full term.

[Oryxslayer]

If Lee actually were appointed, do people think she would win the primary? It seems to me like CA voters are pretty sick of having an octogenarian senator. And appointed Senators lose primaries all the time.

There's the one option that hasn't been discussed, perhaps because it doesn't make sense with the public info: Lee gets appointed but also ends her campaign.  Seems unlikely yes? But would make sense if you view the campaign of an 80-year-old to be born more from the desire for retirement than advancement.  And if Lee herself views things this way, of course she would fight for the appointment,  cause she doesn't consider winning to be an absolute necessity like those seeking advancement.  And because she's fighting for it, her allies will, cause they assume advancement as the primary motivation.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Yeah again if I were in CA this whole episode would push me from being a Porter-Lee swing voter to more into Porter’s camp.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Lee actually were appointed, do people think she would win the primary? It seems to me like CA voters are pretty sick of having an octogenarian senator. And appointed Senators lose primaries all the time.

Also, at best, Lee will only be able to serve one full term.

Yes, she would she will place second but Porter is obviously weaker than Schiff she would almost certainly beat Porter in a runoff but it would be iffy with Schiff

[Хahar 🤔]

I think your bias in favor of Lee is clouding your analysis of the race a bit.

It could be, but if you can find anywhere that I've shifted my view of what's important in the race then I'd like to see it. Even before Lee entered the race it was clear in my view that the most important thing to win an election in California is institutional support, and I don't know why I would change that view now. The number of prominent Democrats who have come out and said that they believe that Barbara Lee should be appointed shows the strength of their support for her. What reason would there be to change my view of the race now: a handful of polls taken before the start of the campaign wherein most of the voters are undecided? Unless there's real campaigning or important figures start shifting allegiance, there's nothing but noise.

If Lee actually were appointed, do people think she would win the primary? It seems to me like CA voters are pretty sick of having an octogenarian senator. And appointed Senators lose primaries all the time.

Do you have reason to believe that California voters are sick of having an octogenarian senator, or is that just how you would personally feel? The last time they had a choice, California voters overwhelmingly reelected an 85-year-old to the Senate, and in the 2020 Democratic primary the top two candidates by a huge margin were Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. I'm sure you know that age is rarely a barrier to being elected in this country and I'm not sure why it seems to you that all of a sudden things would be different in California.

My view is that Lee has a strong chance of winning the election even without the benefit of incumbency and that being an incumbent would significantly help her chances. Clearly others agree or else there wouldn't be any resistance to her being appointed.

[Greedo punched first]

I think your bias in favor of Lee is clouding your analysis of the race a bit.

It could be, but if you can find anywhere that I've shifted my view of what's important in the race then I'd like to see it. Even before Lee entered the race it was clear in my view that the most important thing to win an election in California is institutional support, and I don't know why I would change that view now. The number of prominent Democrats who have come out and said that they believe that Barbara Lee should be appointed shows the strength of their support for her. Why would I change my view of the race now, a handful of polls taken before the start of the campaign wherein most of the voters are undecided?

If Lee actually were appointed, do people think she would win the primary? It seems to me like CA voters are pretty sick of having an octogenarian senator. And appointed Senators lose primaries all the time.

Do you have reason to believe that California voters are sick of having an octogenarian senator, or is that just how you would personally feel? The last time they had a choice, California voters overwhelmingly reelected an 85-year-old to the Senate, and in the 2020 Democratic primary the top two candidates by a huge margin were Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. I'm sure you know that age is rarely a barrier to being elected in this country and I'm not sure why it seems to you that all of a sudden things would be different in California.

My view is that Lee has a strong chance of winning the election even without the benefit of incumbency and that being an incumbent would significantly help her chances. Clearly others agree or else there wouldn't be any resistance to her being appointed.

Yes. High risk of death in first or second term.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think your bias in favor of Lee is clouding your analysis of the race a bit.

It could be, but if you can find anywhere that I've shifted my view of what's important in the race then I'd like to see it. Even before Lee entered the race it was clear in my view that the most important thing to win an election in California is institutional support, and I don't know why I would change that view now. The number of prominent Democrats who have come out and said that they believe that Barbara Lee should be appointed shows the strength of their support for her. Why would I change my view of the race now, a handful of polls taken before the start of the campaign wherein most of the voters are undecided?

If Lee actually were appointed, do people think she would win the primary? It seems to me like CA voters are pretty sick of having an octogenarian senator. And appointed Senators lose primaries all the time.

Do you have reason to believe that California voters are sick of having an octogenarian senator, or is that just how you would personally feel? The last time they had a choice, California voters overwhelmingly reelected an 85-year-old to the Senate, and in the 2020 Democratic primary the top two candidates by a huge margin were Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. I'm sure you know that age is rarely a barrier to being elected in this country and I'm not sure why it seems to you that all of a sudden things would be different in California.

My view is that Lee has a strong chance of winning the election even without the benefit of incumbency and that being an incumbent would significantly help her chances. Clearly others agree or else there wouldn't be any resistance to her being appointed.

Yes. High risk of death in first or second term.

Yeah Pelosi, Waters, Eleanor Holmes Norton, Biden, Trump are all in the same age group, lol it's about health not just ages, my mom died at 66 and my Aunt is 85 yrs old her sister, Lee has no disease right now

My mom could of survived she could of gotten chemo, she refuses

[Greedo punched first]

Will age be a factor in who is elected?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, because Lee isn't sick, Feinstein should of resigned, it may for people voting against Lee anyways but to Latinos, blks and Married white women whom may be in same age group whom are voting for Porter or Lee, it won't. To white men, just like Harris is not well liked by White Evangelical men like Redban

As I said Latina women will gradually move towards Lee away from Schiff

We are mortals, Jesus had miracles behind him that's why he was questioning as a mortal but everyone will die but disease is a factor and Lee is out campaign with unions and isn't sick


Lee is only 77vyrs old and if she died, one of her two sons  can succeed her anyways , Tony or Carl Lee will be on the ballot

Maria Shriver should of run for this seat she is a saint in CA but she wont

[Aurelius2]

If Lee actually were appointed, do people think she would win the primary? It seems to me like CA voters are pretty sick of having an octogenarian senator. And appointed Senators lose primaries all the time.

I don't think it would make her the obvious favorite. I do think it would at least boost her enough to put her on par with Schiff and Porter, making it a true 3-way race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Newsom is gonna Appoint Lee and Bass, Harris, Waters, and Breed are unavailable, he is running for Prez in 28 and needs blk vote although he only has a 25 percentage pts chance to beat Harris

[Greedo punched first]

Would Lee retire after one term if elected?

[MargieCat]

LA Times compiled a list of names Newsom might appoint.

They are:

• Angela Glover Blackwell
• Lateefah Simon
• Mayor London Breed
• Secretary Shirley Weber
• Laphonza Butler
• Controller Malia Cohen
• Judge Leondra Kruger (who was under consideration for Biden for SCOTUS)

Not interested in an appointment are:

• Mayor Karen Bass
• Supervisor Holly Mitchell
• Congresswoman Maxine Waters
• Oprah Winfrey

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

London Breed doesn't want to be Sen she wants to stay as Mayor

[MargieCat]

I don't know if Newsom likes Shirley Weber anymore. He sued her during the recall election for not having his party listed on the ballot, if I'm not mistaking

It also doesn't seem like Breed is interested, and she also is against the idea of a caretaker.

Keep an eye on Angela Glover Blackwell. She's old enough to where she might not mind being a caretaker.

It's going to have to be an older person, that will be a caretaker. No young ambitious person wants to be a senator for one year and not be able to use that incumbency to run again.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There’s a very good chance that if Lee wins, she also dies in office less than a decade from Feinstein. Imagine two Senators who held the same seat at different times pulling a Clair Engle.

Eh, you don't know who dies in office until it happens. Somehow Strom Thurmond didn't die in office.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Do you have reason to believe that California voters are sick of having an octogenarian senator, or is that just how you would personally feel? The last time they had a choice, California voters overwhelmingly reelected an 85-year-old to the Senate, and in the 2020 Democratic primary the top two candidates by a huge margin were Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. I'm sure you know that age is rarely a barrier to being elected in this country and I'm not sure why it seems to you that all of a sudden things would be different in California.

My reason is that Lee is currently polling in single digits in every poll.
And the discourse within the party about having octegenarians in office right now is much different than it was 5 years ago.

If Newsome appointed Lee contingent on her not running for the full term, that would really be the best option. But it seems like Lee has not intention of doing that.

[Greedo punched first]

Schiff and Porter are the only candidates who can finish a full second term.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hilarious how Barbara Lee is somehow too old when she's 4 years younger than Biden.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Hilarious how Barbara Lee is somehow too old when she's 4 years younger than Biden.

1.) Biden is running for a second and final 4-year term, while Lee would be running for a first 6-year term.

2.) Biden is also too old.

[Greedo punched first]

A Senate term is longer than a presidential term. Also, presidents have term limits. I doubt Lee would complete a second term.

[Pollster]

I've gone ahead and written a rough draft of a statement for Gavin Newsom that he can feel free to use:

"A few years ago, I pledged that, if tasked with the duty to make another appointment to one of California's U.S. Senate seats, I would name an African-American woman to the seat. At the time, it was clear to me that this was an absolute necessity. The ascendence of then-Senator Kamala Harris to the Vice Presidency had left the United States Senate without representation for Black women, something that I and many others found, and still find, unacceptable.

Fortunately, since I made that pledge nearly two and a half years ago, recent developments in U.S. Senate races in states like Delaware, Maryland, and potentially more to come have made it a near certainty that it will be the voters who will rectify this problem. I'm also cognizant of the fact that, for what is now the second time I can remember, a Black woman is a major, viable candidate for the U.S. Senate right here at home in our own upcoming election. I hope all Californians will join me in celebrating this incredible milestone.

I'm also cognizant of the fact that the first round of voting in our upcoming U.S. Senate election is far too close for comfort - less than half a year away - for me to unduly influence the democratic process by giving a candidate in that election an unfair advantage with an appointment to the seat.

That is why I'm incredibly pleased to share that former U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer has agreed to briefly come out of retirement to serve out the remainder of the late, great Senator Feinstein's term. Senator Boxer and Senator Feinstein long enjoyed a strong working relationship and friendship. She will return to the Senate with seniority, and there is nobody better to manage the transition from Senator Feinstein to our new Senator who will be elected next year, while also serving Californians ably and with distinction, than her."

[Pollster]

Also, something should probably be done about the poster who is morbidly obsessed with Barbara Lee's death.